Well... The virus did rage on in Iran and it's pretty hot there.
However, I do agree. The peak will be long over by that time, and 'herd immunity' will have strengthened to the point of it not being a big issue anymore IMO. Compare it to China, Wuhan was locked down less than 2 months ago and life is getting back to normal now.
I'd love to see some confirmed data to back this up, rather than just an assumption that the information coming out of China is accurate. Even then, it represents observational data, which is fraught with error and uncertainty.
Herd immunity requires that a very large proportion of the population has either been exposed to the virus or has been immunized. Given that the NIAID and CDC are both suggesting that a widely-available vaccine is about 18 months out (at best), this is not an immediate option. Assuming an R-naught of about 2.0-2.5, herd immunity would require that 60-70% of the population be exposed (and have recovered) from the virus. In the US, that would imply that 215M people would have had some level of infection, and with a 2% mortality rate (the current estimate based upon US and relevant data), there would be over 4M deaths. For comparison, we have been unable to achieve sufficient herd immunity to control measles (thanks to those who have refused to vaccinate for dubious reasons, including selective review of the literature); the only disease that we have (supposedly) been able to eradicate has been smallpox. In brief, this virus has the potential to wipe out 1% of the US population before we can even produce a vaccine.
[Note that in the most recent Italian data that I was able to review, most deaths were in patients over the age of 80, and there were no deaths in patients under age 65. In data from other countries, younger patients have been affected, however, the overwhelming majority of these patients had some degree of immune deficiency (this doesn't only include transplant patients and patients on immunosuppressants;
this includes patients with diabetes, coronary artery disease, etc.]
If there is not a significant effort to reduce the transmission rate, the mortality rate is likely to be higher, as there will be insufficient critical care resources (ICU beds, ventilators,
medical staff, medications). At present, we have no therapy that has been definitively shown to significantly alter the course of the disease. The best we can do is support the patient and hope they get better on their own, while also trying various interventions that might work. As another one of those who are responsible for helping manage this issue, I fear the impact of the virus, but I also fear the impact of misinformation.
Based upon current publically available data, reports from the CDC, and comments by Dr. Fauci (Director of NIAID), I would plan for this to be a significant issue for a couple of years, and for it to be around until enough people are either exposed or vaccinated (I don't want to start a flame war here, but the science behind vaccination is unquestionable -- please get vaccinated for the flu now, and for SARS-CoV-2 when it is available [SARS-CoV-2 is the name of the virus; the illness is CoVid-19].)
Of note -- a good way for any of us to help is via Folding@Home:
Folding@home is a distributed computing project for disease research that simulates protein folding, computational drug design, and other types of...
www.macrumors.com
EDIT:
Math error/typo
estimated deaths = 1.4 million (0.5% of population)
www.businessinsider.com
