Apple as Mass Market Company

[Applespider]

Mass market is good - spreads those R&D costs over more units allowing better margins with lower prices.

There have been several people in the past few months who have come and asked me about Macs as a potential purchase and what the benefits would be. They'd heard the 'no virus' stuff and couldn't quite believe it so wanted it from a Mac user's mouth.

Selfishly, I don't really care about how high Apple's market share or share price gets so long as I can continue computing on my preferred system. Public awareness that there is another option - and the iPod has done that since there were many who didn't even know Apple still existed a few years back for consumers...

 

[Porchland]

meryll lynch doesn't know sheet about fook
these guys are wrong on a routine basis. apple isn't hard to predict at all. here's my shot at being an analyst...

1- apple will release a video ipod in january and open up iTunes 5 w/ video store, thus creating a demand for the now useless music video.

I'm still scratching my head at why Apple didn't market iTunes 4.9 as 5. If the next major rev is in January, wouldn't it make more sense to call it iTunes 6? The rest of the iLife will presumably move to 6 in January.

Even though the iPod mini debuted in January, I think we might see a 5G iPod for Christmas '05. We're now past the average distance between generations for previous iPod updates.

2- intel macs will be announced in january as well, ahead of schedule by many months... remember jobs said intel macs would be shipping by the middle of year.. but that could mean that they would be introduced well before that period. it's a vague statement, and trust me he would love to churn them out asap.

Intel Macs have already been "announced" and they're supposed to be here by next summer, so Jobs will certainly be talking about it at the January keynote. If "one more thing" is a MacTel shipping in January, I'll be surprised (and happy!).

3- more intel macs, new mac mini, new ibook, new imac ... (the great PPC products down the pipeline jobs was talking about are probably a rev b mac mini and revised ibooks before the year's end)

Yep.

4- apple reveals 2 button mouse with touch sensitive scroll wheel functionality in jan. along w/ ilife '06 woohoo, and a spreadsheet in iWork..

iLife 5 was such a giant leap forward that I'm REALLY excited about iLife 6. Most of the killer features that I had been hoping for -- like 16:9 integration in the video apps -- were added in iLife 5. I'm sure there are features to be added, interfaces to be improved, etc., but it would be hard to imagine iLife making another huge leap in 6.

 

[dontmatter]

I don't know if saying they're going mass market is accurate-I think they're just conducting buisness. They're smart-now that they're growing and have some discretionary spending, they're diversifying. Get involved in a lot of projects, and when they're a hit, run with it. It's not just the ipod, and it's not just consumer devices-you've got apple doing unique things, making bets in so many markets. they're trying things with making their own software, some (all those creative apps I don't know what do, really) pretty successful, some (ilife) very successful, some (pages) don't pan out. But they've gotten to the point, that they aren't saying, the next stage of this company, all our money, is going to be to try and make the new word-they just do enough to test the waters, and see if they can win. so we've got itunes phones, itunes music store, the ipod, various iterations of the ipod, former projects like airport express, and more... intel, the mac mini, podcasting, tiger, apple retail stores, and probably a many that I've forgotten because they've not been hits.

What I'm trying to say is, apple has had a shift in vision. They were a computer maker, a very specific, straight and narrow computer maker. Their goal was to excel at that, gain market share there, make money as a computer maker. They lost that war, or very close to it.

Now, apple has realized, they're good at making things. They're really good at doing things, and they have the money to invest in projects, and they have a well respected brand to put on their projects to make it easier to get into the market. It's venture capitalism, but with a brand. So they're just going, looking at vairous ideas, saying, hmm, this market, we might be able to get in edgwise by doing this... or we might make this market, in this way... and they try it, and a good number of them bring back a lot of money. It's just that, these days, it's not about computers, it's about, hmm, could we, with our skills, get something done here? let's try.

 

[dontmatter]

I'm still scratching my head at why Apple didn't market iTunes 4.9 as 5. If the next major rev is in January, wouldn't it make more sense to call it iTunes 6? The rest of the iLife will presumably move to 6 in January.

easy. We like order, structure, but... that doesn't always mean that it makes for a good buisness strategy. no ebook, right?

Actually, that's the prelude. Here's my bet-apple's in the spotlight, especially with music. If it was marketed as itunes 5, there would be a thousand reviews of it, most saying, hmm, not enough, so much like 4.8, and we don't know if podcasting is gonna take off.... apple needs to get their act together on this one. But if it's just a .1 update, then, well, it will only get noticed if it has an impact. If podcasting is a boom, then they've made the silly but negligable mistake of not showing it off as much as they could, but who cares, it's a boom! if it's small or a failure, it's nothing embarassing for apple.

Just obeying the rule-when you don't know how you're bet will turn out, talk it down, and whatever it is, seems like more of a success.

Apple really doesn't care about naming schemes.

 

[Lynxpro]

Well...
One thing that Steve Jobs is known for are his efforts to streamline...everything. When he rejoined Apple in 1996 (IIRC) they hade a very diverse product line that included digital cameras, printers, scanners, computers, monitors, PDAs, etc.. Within 2 years they had PowerMacs, iMacs and a few stragglers. Granted, this is a different Apple than it was back then, but it's the same Steve.
I don't want to see Apple get too diversified like they did in the mid-90's. It nearly killed them.

Diversification isn't the bad thing. Bad management is. That's the difference. Apple digital cameras would sell much better than HPs would. Of course, would Apple really want to port iPhoto to Windows?

 

[Lynxpro]

Though, as Sony has demonstrated, Apple's increasing emphasis on consumer electronics does not mean that they will exit the computer market, I am afraid that they will allocate much of their resources to this area. Since their resources are, of course, limited, this will likely cause longer development times for Macs, at least for a while.

How on earth do you figure? OS X may stop doing annual updates, but if anything, the switch to Intel processors means the Mac line will refresh hardware wise much more quickly today to keep processor speeds relevant to what the competition is offering. You have it backwards.

 

[Lynxpro]

I would rather see Apple excel in a few markets (portable computing, desktop computing, portable audio) than stretch themselves and become mediocre in everything, kinda like Sony, as someone noticed above...

Mediocre? The PSP isn't mediocre. Nor is the upcoming PS3. Nor is Blu-Ray.

Mediocre Sony products are their MP3 players. Their Vaio computers wouldn't be mediocre if they had a decent OS to bundle them with, but as we all know, Steve is against licensing OS X to anybody else...for now.

 

[Lynxpro]

I think a home setup box is a logical next step for Apple. It could allow you to view your photos and movies, play music, a built-in PVR would be nice as well. Music is always going to be the bread and butter of the iPod. I can't see movie viewing ever becoming mainstream on such a small device - I wouldn't want to do it and from many people I've talked to there just doesn't seem to be much interest. However, as a set-top box in the living room I think it would be marketable and Apple based on their focus and past endeavors seems to be prime for this task.

And this is why Apple needs to acquire TiVo, and perhaps the IP of D&M Holdings which is only half-assedly marketing has-been ReplayTV.

Just imagine it. "TiVo - television your way, by Apple."

With Apple's economies of scale, TiVo's hardware costs would dramatically decrease, which would actually make the company - as a subsidiary of Apple - profitable for the first time. A Series3 could debut that would be HD compatible (720p/1080i/1080p) using H.264 as the preferred codec. Dual "tuners" built in. Firewire and USB 2.0 standard. HDMI/DVI input and output. A card slot for a Cablecard. Ethernet port built-in (for a change), and a slot available for an Airport card to be added to it. Automatic streaming of AAC+Fairplay content from your PC/Mac, and the ability to buy tracks straight from the iTunes store. Direct download of movies, thanks to TiVo's existing planned partnership with NetFlix. Better synching with iPhoto.

The CableCard 2.0 fiasco could be solved by selling a separate accessory hooking up with one of the Firewire ports to work seamlessly with CableCard 2.0 once its finalized and deployed.

In the past, when Jobs was asked about PVRs, he said that the cable companies had a stranglehold on the market. And that was the case. But now, TiVo has a partnership with Comcast, and they'll be debuting the TiVo Software onto standard Comcast set-top boxes early next year. Apple could benefit from this added exposure so that it could sell these better boxes to those customers who want more than the basic TiVo functionality.

Even better, the TiVo service fees could be bundled with a .Mac subscription.

And, if that wasn't good enough, TiVo software could be included into iLife for those that didn't want to pony up for a separate set-top box to get decent (but not as good) PVR functionality. Or as part of a MediaCentre Mac edition.

Hell, the Apple TiVo could also have an iPod dock built into it for another added incentive.

An Apple Bluetooth universal remote would be sold separately to take advantage of the PVR's abilities even more so.

This is definitely something Apple SHOULD do, whether it actually does is a different subject.

 

[Lynxpro]

Even though the iPod mini debuted in January, I think we might see a 5G iPod for Christmas '05. We're now past the average distance between generations for previous iPod updates.

Bet on the iPod Mini going to color screens by Christmas 2005.

 

[savar]

I don't want to see Apple get too diversified like they did in the mid-90's. It nearly killed them. I have no doubt that they would make a beautiful product, but so far Apple 2.0 has been doing a great job of staying out of markets they can't do well in. Let's keep it that way. But if they can rock it, I'm all for it!

You're totally right, but I think Apple can still diversify -- SLOWLY.. They came along, saw a huge opportunity combining an MP3 player with a microdrive, nailed it on the first try, and the iPod was a smash.

If Apple releases one new product like the iPod in the next year or two, and does it exactly like they did the iPod, there's no reason they can't do something huge.

 

[1macker1]

consumer electronics? Hitting big with 1 product doesn't mean you're read to play in the same playground as sony. I wish apple would just focus on Computer and iPods.

 

[iris_failsafe]

It seems this the dawn of the world understanding what we all know: how having a Mac can change your lives.

This is also the beggining of the end for Microsoft. I heard Jim Kramer on CNBC saying that he doesn't see how MS can grow or produce added value and that he expects to be a downward road for them.

 

[andiwm2003]

it's really amazing with what little work analyst earn big money.

apple is building on its ipod success? what a surprise!
apple will go into the mass market? after the mac mini and the ipod shuffle and the itunes store i would never have guessed that!
apple may go into the video segment? well, i thought imovie, h.264, blue ray, pixar, idvd, job offers for video people, FCP are all just short term!

reading this board and the mostly well educated discussions here give me about a 100 times better view of apples future technological opportunities.
and for the business part of it? well, $51 as a target sounds like a clear number. but looking at past predictions shows me that those numbers are usually wild guesses anyway.

seems i don't think too high of analysts..........

 

[finalcoolman]

Mediocre? The PSP isn't mediocre. Nor is the upcoming PS3. Nor is Blu-Ray.

Mediocre Sony products are their MP3 players. Their Vaio computers wouldn't be mediocre if they had a decent OS to bundle them with, but as we all know, Steve is against licensing OS X to anybody else...for now.

Exactly. VAIO PCs are the best some of the best and well designed PCs you can buy. If you need a PC laptop, Sony is the way to go. A VAIO laptop is on par with design and quality as any iBook or Powerbook.

As for the PSP, it is great BUT they need to add more functionality (easily implemented through firmware updates) most notably a web browser. Not having to lug around a 1-2k laptop through the house just to browse the web will make the $300 dollar system worth it all for that one reason. I can't wait for this to happen. Reading articles on the web will be just as comfortable as reading a novel due to it's size. Do you know how cool it will be to wake up in the morning, grab the PSP from your nighttable, quickly power it up and read up on the morning's top news all while lying on your back in bed?

 

[macidiot]

Apple should. Look at HP, Dell, and Gateway. All of them are selling plasmas and LCDs. And of course, the same goes for Sony. Now who would you rather buy an HDTV from?

Apple branded HDTVs would sell well not only in the Apple Stores, but also through Best Buy, Circuit City, and CompUSA.

Not to mention how great an Apple-branded TiVo would do...

I really want to buy another Apple display to use as a tv in my office. It would be perfect. All Apple needs to do is add a little more funtionality to that dvi connector. As in allow it to recognize my hd tuner. Unfortunately, right now the only other somewhat decent solution is from Dell. Same display panel as Apple, but with a full complement of connectors and for less money. Too bad its so ugly compared to Apple's display. i think it would look awful next to my acd. Not to mention that I'd have to explain why I have a Dell display...

 

[feakbeak]

It seems this the dawn of the world understanding what we all know: how having a Mac can change your lives.

This is also the beggining of the end for Microsoft. I heard Jim Kramer on CNBC saying that he doesn't see how MS can grow or produce added value and that he expects to be a downward road for them.

Where do you grow when you are one step away from ubiquitous? Of course Microsoft cannot expand their marketshare much in the existing software market. Their only real avenue is to enter new vertical markets and they have been trying to do with that with the XBox which has been fairly successful and their on-going effort to enter the living room - much less successful.

Still, for the business side of computing, Microsoft's dominates and for good reasons. For consumer computing I think Apple is a better choice for most end-users but there is far more money involved in the business computing market and Microsoft has dozens of technologies that ensure their survival for a long time to come. I always get a laugh out of the claims of Microsoft's death knell.

 

[puuukeey]

power corrupts

So I congradulate apple. But I am very skeptical that they can pull off being a nimble catalyst for innovation at the same time as being a bloated corporation set on expansion.

I could try to get over my leftist tendancies here but I just cant. I think the best thing apple could do for its customers is be happy with its current market share. Of course they shouldn't get stomped into obscurity but it clearly is more focused on utilizing its brand to its advantage than innovating or pleasing its customers. when apple adopted its "mac is the platform for multimedia" rep, the industry almost simultaniously became cross platform (unless apple bought them)

questions have turned from "how can we create the next stable operating system?" to "how many ipods can we put out in a single year?" and "how many different software markets can we monopolize on our platform?" getting bigger will only increase this behavior. if apple continues ignoring its quality and morals for the sake of getting more people into that 3d billboard in the mall I'll be very disappointed.

 

[Multimedia]

Get EyeTV 500 for HDTV Now. Apple should OEM them.

Apple should. Look at HP, Dell, and Gateway. All of them are selling plasmas and LCDs. And of course, the same goes for Sony. Now who would you rather buy an HDTV from?

Apple branded HDTVs would sell well not only in the Apple Stores, but also through Best Buy, Circuit City, and CompUSA.

Not to mention how great an Apple-branded TiVo would do...

I already have my HDTV. It's a Dell 24" Samsung 1920 x 1200 Flat Panel $999 (same one Apple sells for $1499) + an EyeTV 500 Digital TV Tuner $299 hooked to a dual 2.5 G5 $1999. Total cost only $3297. But you could hook the EyeTV tuner to any old 500 MHz G4 or better on any old CRT all for less than $1000. Once you start watching HDTV you will be hooked. It's in the air everywhere and the cheapest way to get into it is with an EyeTV 500 tuner for $299.

Take a look at the EyeTV 500 here. You won't regret buying one.

 

[Lynxpro]

As for the PSP, it is great BUT they need to add more functionality (easily implemented through firmware updates) most notably a web browser. Not having to lug around a 1-2k laptop through the house just to browse the web will make the $300 dollar system worth it all for that one reason. I can't wait for this to happen. Reading articles on the web will be just as comfortable as reading a novel due to it's size. Do you know how cool it will be to wake up in the morning, grab the PSP from your nighttable, quickly power it up and read up on the morning's top news all while lying on your back in bed?

I'm a big proponent of Sony offering a PalmOS download (at an extra charge) to the PSP. It would be the best of both worlds....what the Tapwave got right plus Sony's game titles and all the other bells & whistles.

Of course, adding PDA capabilities via mini-OS X, a new NewtonOS, or PalmOS is just what the iPod should order.

 

[pubwvj]

The product I would like to see them come out is a Palm like device but one that does it all.
MacOSXm - so we can run basic applications
PalmOS as I have a lot of stuff on that but it is easy to emulate)
Photo - full automatic and full manual 2.1 MegaPixels is enough.
Phone - Cell/Radio/Wi-Fi-VOIP
Remote Control - IR/Wi-Fi/Bluetooth
Simple - no need for extranious buttons - touch screen for inputs.
Tiny - no bigger than the current Palm machines. Maybe smaller. Shirt pocket sized.
Long battery life - very important - also should accept off the shelf AA's for when you're in a place you just can't charge up. Have a solar skin on it.
Robust so it can take on the real world, drop it, waterproof, etc.

What we don't need from this sort of machine is super speed.
It isn't for Halo, Doom, Photoshop, iMovie editing, FinalCut, etc.
It is for date book, calendar, email, web, address book, note taking, reading, music listening, recording, phone, simple games, etc.

GPS would also be nice.

Basically I want to see an all-in-one pocket portable device that tightly integrates with the Macintosh. Probably work with Windows and Unix too. (Like iPods)

 

[Lynxpro]

Not to mention that I'd have to explain why I have a Dell display...

You could explain that you wanted to take that extra savings you "made" by going the Dell route and bought two iPods for your friends or family. Hell, that would still be better for Apple too, because the analysts aren't concerned about Apple's LCD attachment rate to their Macs sales as opposed to the sheer number of iPods sold. Plus, with each iPod sold, it makes Bill Gates cry. Because "Plays for Sure" means "does not play on iPod."

 

[Lynxpro]

I already have my HDTV. It's a Dell 24" Samsung 1920 x 1200 Flat Panel $999 (same one Apple sells for $1499) + an EyeTV 500 Digital TV Tuner $299 hooked to a dual 2.5 G5 $1999. Total cost only $3297. But you could hook the EyeTV tuner to any old 500 MHz G4 or better on any old CRT all for less than $1000. Once you start watching HDTV you will be hooked. It's in the air everywhere and the cheapest way to get into it is with an EyeTV 500 tuner for $299.
Take a look at the EyeTV 500 here. You won't regret buying one.

Personally, I'm not really happy with those units. I don't like a computer/DVR/PVR set up that taxes the computer's processor too much. I would prefer the card ATi makes on the PC side...even more so if they'd release Linux drivers for it, which they won't. But even still, a set-top box has its own merits and fits in with the rest of the entertainment center's A/V equipment. Having a Mac tied to a do-hickey like that does not improve the aesthetics. Plus, my solution, with its CableCard option negates having to have yet another set-top box rented from the cableco. The Elgato does not. OTA HDTV is nice because they have the lowest compression of all signals so far, but that ain't gonna get me the Universal HD Channel, Discovery HD, or any of the other speciality HD channels from cable and satellite. Plus, with Apple marketing a device, it would make a larger splash than telling Joe Sixpack to buy a Mac and then another accessory.

 

[Multimedia]

Off Air HDTV Is My Application

Personally, I'm not really happy with those units. I don't like a computer/DVR/PVR set up that taxes the computer's processor too much. I would prefer the card ATi makes on the PC side...even more so if they'd release Linux drivers for it, which they won't. But even still, a set-top box has its own merits and fits in with the rest of the entertainment center's A/V equipment. Having a Mac tied to a do-hickey like that does not improve the aesthetics. Plus, my solution, with its CableCard option negates having to have yet another set-top box rented from the cableco. The Elgato does not. OTA HDTV is nice because they have the lowest compression of all signals so far, but that ain't gonna get me the Universal HD Channel, Discovery HD, or any of the other speciality HD channels from cable and satellite. Plus, with Apple marketing a device, it would make a larger splash than telling Joe Sixpack to buy a Mac and then another accessory.

I don't care about cable or satellite HDTV. I am only interested in off air DTV & HDTV. I have given up expensive cable and satellite as a means to watch less and enjoy life more. I hooked a $50 Terk TV5 antennae to the EyeTV 500 in a place where no other antennae would even detect ONE DTV signal and got all four that are in my area. The EyeTV does work with all cable DTV signals too. It is a very compact tuner only attached via one FireWire cable. For my purposes it is a complete inexpensive solution.

 

[m-dogg]

The product I would like to see them come out is a Palm like device but one that does it all.
MacOSXm - so we can run basic applications
PalmOS as I have a lot of stuff on that but it is easy to emulate)
Photo - full automatic and full manual 2.1 MegaPixels is enough.
Phone - Cell/Radio/Wi-Fi-VOIP
Remote Control - IR/Wi-Fi/Bluetooth
Simple - no need for extranious buttons - touch screen for inputs.
Tiny - no bigger than the current Palm machines. Maybe smaller. Shirt pocket sized.
Long battery life - very important - also should accept off the shelf AA's for when you're in a place you just can't charge up. Have a solar skin on it.
Robust so it can take on the real world, drop it, waterproof, etc.

What we don't need from this sort of machine is super speed.
It isn't for Halo, Doom, Photoshop, iMovie editing, FinalCut, etc.
It is for date book, calendar, email, web, address book, note taking, reading, music listening, recording, phone, simple games, etc.

GPS would also be nice.

Basically I want to see an all-in-one pocket portable device that tightly integrates with the Macintosh. Probably work with Windows and Unix too. (Like iPods)

what about the built-in electric shaver feature? without that, what's the point?

 

[JesterJJZ]

I'd welcome more Apple products as long as it doesn't interfere with the development of the PoweMac line.