Apple Car Development Speeds Up, 2019 Launch Date Targeted

[farmboy]

Are you really comparing a personal electronics company releasing a personal electronics device to a personal electronics company releasing a car?

I have no idea if Apple will build the next great car or not. But the situations aren't as different as you're implying. I don't know why people (including Lutz, who screwed up plenty of times in the auto biz he's expounding on) are having such trouble accepting the concept. There are a dozen boutique car manufacturers around the globe right now, some of whom build outstanding cars, and started with nothing but an idea. High end cars, no doubt, but the concept and execution of making cars has all been done a thousand times with many workable variations.

It's not some big mystery best left to the same ten makers, who, truth be told, are scared to death because they are so heavily invested, both perceptually and financially, in the way they've always done things that they can't hope to match a new guy with deep pockets and no baggage.

This fight will get dirty, mark my words.

 

[mrxak]

Incredibly thin Gorilla Glass windshield with anti-glare and hydrophobic coatings, so you don't need wipers or visors and it won't break even if you drive over it with another car. (PRODUCT) RED model that comes with a U2 album already loaded whether you want it or not. Keyless entry doesn't work when the car can't connect to the internet. No AM/FM radio, just Beats 1. The car bends if somebody sits on your hood. No user-serviceable parts. If the luxurious premium leather car interior gets wet, you've voided the warranty. Fingerprint or 4 digit code to start the engine, unless you have Siri in default settings and then anyone can start it with their voice. Health sensors in the rear seats and motion sensors while the car's engine is off count calories expended up at Makeout Point. Instead of looking out the windows to see where you are, use multitouch gestures on a 3D map display in the dashboard to look at local landmarks in incredible photorealistic 3D. Find My Car app very useful for large parking lots and in event of theft. Travel Time for calendar events now based on how fast a model Apple Car you got and its off-road capabilities. 8 megapixel FaceTime cameras mounted in the steering wheel and passenger's side dashboards. Car won't work without a tethered recent-model iPhone running the latest iOS, though health sensors in the car seats will still work out of range after set-up. The driver's side door has Apple Pay antennas for drive-through payment at participating fast food restaurants. Airplane Mode doesn't do what you think it does. Time Machine functionality only available with optional flux capacitor.

Everyone will complain it doesn't have enough RAM after car mechanics do a tear-down. Samsung releases an eighteen wheeler and runs ads making fun of how small the Apple Car is in comparison. Unboxing videos show Apple has designed an ingenious box using only a minimum of paperboard, though most customers opt to have Apple Store employees take it out of the box at the store for initial set-up. NSA monitors all of your movements since your car is always connected to Apple servers. Police complain they can't shut your car down remotely and lobbies Congress to insist Apple installs a backdoor so they can do that if you're wanted for a crime or your license gets suspended.

 

[farmboy]

Can you explain Apple Map, please?

Can you explain the early versions of Google Maps? How quickly people forget how bad it was. Both apps got better quickly as they got more data. That was always the problem and always the solution.

 

[gaximus]

CarPlay has to actually work properly first! It's one of the buggiest, fiddliest bits of software that I've ever seen. I wonder if anyone in their Dev Team actually use CarPlay in their own cars, it's so bad! Don't get me wrong, it's got great potential, but the people involved in it's development clearly don't use it otherwise there wouldn't be so many Rookie mistakes made with how they've done stuff.

I agree, when it works its awesome, but there are some huge over looked areas. like, Its great at finding addresses in messages and emails, but it doesn't find them in the calendar. It should look there first, if I have an appointment at 3pm and I get in my car at 2:30, it should see the address in the calendar and assume thats where I'll be going, and start navigation there, it can do it when headed to or from work.

 

[tivoboy]

Honestly I'm hoping by the time this comes out, I won't need to own a personal vehicle, and I can just call one up from my iPhone and it'll drive over and let me get in, then drive me wherever I want to go and that's that. Sort of like Uber, but without a driver.

I know regulations are likely to require a person be in any moving autonomous vehicles for a while, but at some point we're going to let these things drive completely solo, and our roads will be a lot safer for it. I really look forward to that day.

I honestly don't think we're going to see this till 2022+..it's not a five year out sort of thing. We'll see though

 

[tivoboy]

Just in case you don't follow Tesla like we follow Apple, they have a mass market car due in late 2017 that will have a base price of $35,000. Apple will surely compete in this price range. Current Teslas are expensive yes but the mass market car has always been Tesla's goal, it just takes time for the technology to come down in cost.

I think technically the car is going to start at 35$K AFTER the 7,500$ federal tax credit.. (not including any other state tax credits that some states have which are between 1000$ and 6000$ MORE dollars credit)

 

[firewood]

Are you really comparing a personal electronics company releasing a personal electronics device to a personal electronics company releasing a car?

Apple, Inc. was once Apple Computer, not a personal electronics company (as was Sony with the contemporaneous Walkman).

Apple now makes more physical hardware, out of metal and screws, etc., in weight, than Boing makes for all its aircraft. Much of it to higher tolerances than typical automotive parts.

The value (development cost to the manufacturer) of the computer/microprocessor code running a current new luxury car or airliner has become the largest single fraction of its cost. More than the development cost of a new transmission.

 

[firewood]

I honestly don't think we're going to see this till 2022+..it's not a five year out sort of thing. We'll see though

When they are first allowed on the roads, and get some traction among the drunks coming home at night, thus making any statistical dent in the 25 to 30 people who die (plus around 700 injuries) every day due to drunk driving, the hockey stick will take off. To say nothing about a rapid change in public opinion in getting the steering wheel and brakes away from all the idiots with their noses stuck in a text message.

 

[MichaelThwaite]

A don't think that BMW has the reliability or quality controls to meet Apple's needs. An i3 based car would be another Motorola ROKR E1. Which leads me to believe that any Apple car would have to be a clean sheet design, probably fabricated in China throwing the 2019 rumor completely off IMO.

 

[McGiord]

A don't think that BMW has the reliability or quality controls to meet Apple's needs. An i3 based car would be another Motorola ROKR E1. Which leads me to believe that any Apple car would have to be a clean sheet design, probably fabricated in China throwing the 2019 rumor completely off IMO.

I see it the other way around. Apple doesn't have the reliability nor quality controls to meet BMW quality standards. Apple business model to sell Apple Care and replace every device once there is a failure doesn't work in the automotive market, the logistics of it and costs will kill their business, even they pass the bill to the Chinese OEM making them, it's not the same to ship a vehicle as to ship an iPhone or a MacBook.

 

[MichaelThwaite]

Fair point. I guess I've seen more faulty BMWs than iPhones. However, can you see Apple partnering with an existing OEM? As an EV driver, I see most car makers (ironically other than BMW & Tesla) making electric cars that mimic ICE cars - they build in artificial creep, noises and limited regenerative braking as they perceive that drivers wouldn't like those EV attributes - much like Ford insisted that all Americans prefer cars with a trunk to cars with a hatchback. I can't imagine any OEM allowing Apple free reign to re-think passenger vehicles hence we'll see either a ROKR or a delivery in 2023.

 

[Rightofthepeople]

when will they start factoring in coal plants as emissions, since they need to be charged? sorry for your feel good but electric cars have more of a "carbon footprint" than the gasoline engine. i guess we'll know when it isnt politically advantageous anymore...

Look, I am no enviro-nazi but I do care for the environment. I once believed as you do, but having done some research I can tell you now that EVs are definitely cleaner than ICE cars. When you analyze the so called "well to wheels" pollution there is no contest. First of all, only half of our electricity is generated using coal, and that number will be gradually declining over the next 25 years. Also, when comparing that to the pollutin generated by ICE cars you have to remember the gas those cars burn doesn't magically appear in the pumps. It has to be extracted as oil from the ground (pollution), then refined into various products (pollution), then transported to the gas station (pollution).
Additionally, while much of our oil still comes from the Middle East (i.e., people who hate us and fund terrorists who want to kill us), ALL of our electricity is generated domestically by American workers in American power plants. So one day, when we all drive EVs, we can give the Middle East the middle finger. Something feels very good to me about that.
Finally, electric motors are far more energy efficient than internal combustion engines (ICE) and far less likely to break down. Maintenance on EVs is much less than on ICE cars, and electricity is a whole lot cheaper than gas on a cost per mile basis. To put it in perspective for you, I have a Nissan Leaf that we drive 1000 miles a month and my power cost is $25 per month. I don't know any ICE cars that can go 1000 miles on $25 worth of gas.
Do your research, as I have, and you will see that EVs are the wave of the future. I could care less if Apple builds a car, but EVs are here to stay and that's a good thing.

 

[farmboy]

I see it the other way around. Apple doesn't have the reliability nor quality controls to meet BMW quality standards. Apple business model to sell Apple Care and replace every device once there is a failure doesn't work in the automotive market, the logistics of it and costs will kill their business, even they pass the bill to the Chinese OEM making them, it's not the same to ship a vehicle as to ship an iPhone or a MacBook.

BMW quality standards? Are you aware of the massive drop in resale value of their used cars? That's not because of product quality, which is only average (and the Mini is atrocious). That's better than it used to be, but they had a long way to go to even get to average (former 740i owner here).

As far as shipping, it's an insignificant cost built into the price of every single vehicle sold by everyone outside the country of manufacture. Especially if you own the ships ou of your pocket change.

 

[McGiord]

Fair point. I guess I've seen more faulty BMWs than iPhones. However, can you see Apple partnering with an existing OEM? As an EV driver, I see most car makers (ironically other than BMW & Tesla) making electric cars that mimic ICE cars - they build in artificial creep, noises and limited regenerative braking as they perceive that drivers wouldn't like those EV attributes - much like Ford insisted that all Americans prefer cars with a trunk to cars with a hatchback. I can't imagine any OEM allowing Apple free reign to re-think passenger vehicles hence we'll see either a ROKR or a delivery in 2023.

The main reason why they mimic ICE is because they are simply reusing existing design solutions to adapt the EV. The vehicle architecture is reused. Very few industry engineers have experience with designing from scratch a new component or vehicle system as well as integrating EV systems to the rest of the vehicle. And only the powertrain, wheels and braking are different as well as the associated systems no longer needed: almost everything under the hood; all interior and body it's basically "the same".
Electrical architecture not necessarily is different in the body electronics, so the need to have AC⚡️DC (for those about to rock ) circuits at different voltage is what is made differently.
I think ford offered some hatchbacks for the European market and when together with Mazda they had some modes too. Similarly to station wagons they are perceived by he averaged American customer as not a car not a SUV not a truck not a minivan. With crossovers taking over instead.
The hatchback tailgate is very annoying to manufacture plus the added weight of all the mechanisms and additional components (not needed for a trunk) following traditional design solutions makes it a hassle that product planning gets rid of it as the market segment they want to cater "don't" buy it at the price point needed to make the business case appealing to be "approved".

All these are my quick rambling on how I understand some of it, as you can read this is the reason why a disruptive competitor in the automotive market will enable change in the industry therefore it may be easier to get certain things faster.

However if Jony doesn't like hatchbacks you will be longing for it for decades...

 

[McGiord]

BMW quality standards? Are you aware of the massive drop in resale value of their used cars? That's not because of product quality, which is only average (and the Mini is atrocious). That's better than it used to be, but they had a long way to go to even get to average (former 740i owner here).

As far as shipping, it's an insignificant cost built into the price of every single vehicle sold by everyone outside the country of manufacture. Especially if you own the ships ou of your pocket change.

I'm not aware of the price drop in used BMW cars. Maybe there is price drop because there are many more in the market than what they used to be? I guess that they increased the quantity of leased cars therefore at the end of the lease there are more used BMWs in the market.
The drop in quality may be related to the consequences of the financial crisis and bankruptcy of automotive companies which directly impacted the supplies, therefore as much as BMW quality standards were there not necessarily were enforced by all the players generating that drop in quality, reliability and durability.

 

[8692574]

Drop in resale value does not equal bad quality, as McGiord pointed out, it is a question of request and offer.....The old nokia do not sell well nowadays (the "dumb ones" indestructables) does that make their build quality bad?

 

[-hh]

The main reason why they mimic ICE is because they are simply reusing existing design solutions to adapt the EV. The vehicle architecture is reused.

That's part of it, but another part is that radically different stuff typically fails in the marketplace.

Very few industry engineers have experience with designing from scratch a new component or vehicle system as well as integrating EV systems to the rest of the vehicle. And only the powertrain, wheels and braking are different as well as the associated systems no longer needed: almost everything under the hood; all interior and body it's basically "the same". Electrical architecture not necessarily is different in the body electronics, so the need to have AC⚡️DC (for those about to rock ) circuits at different voltage is what is made differently.

Yet the hybrids have been out on the roads now for well over a decade (Prius: 1997), so these design elements are no longer new or risky.

I think ford offered some hatchbacks for the European market and when together with Mazda they had some modes too. Similarly to station wagons they are perceived by he averaged American customer as not a car not a SUV not a truck not a minivan. With crossovers taking over instead.
The hatchback tailgate is very annoying to manufacture plus the added weight of all the mechanisms and additional components (not needed for a trunk) following traditional design solutions makes it a hassle that product planning gets rid of it as the market segment they want to cater "don't" buy it at the price point needed to make the business case appealing to be "approved".

The USA hasn't had the same market pressures as the EU ... the latter's compact cities and high fuel prices means far fewer big old (& low MPG) pickup trucks / SUVs and more small, urban-friendly (& typically diesel) practicality-in-a-hatchbacks. And with gas now <$2/gallon in the USA, there's not going to be any consumer interest for at least a few more years: the pendulum won't swing until$5/gallon.

However if Jony doesn't like hatchbacks you will be longing for it for decades...

Already have been doing said longing; my last Teutonic hatch was a 2002 Mercedes C-Coupe, which I drove for 13 years because of no desirable replacements in the marketplace...particularly since the few which were close were kneecapped with runflat tires (horribly unreliable technology in regions with pothole laced roads).

 

[farmboy]

I'm not aware of the price drop in used BMW cars. Maybe there is price drop because there are many more in the market than what they used to be? I guess that they increased the quantity of leased cars therefore at the end of the lease there are more used BMWs in the market.
The drop in quality may be related to the consequences of the financial crisis and bankruptcy of automotive companies which directly impacted the supplies, therefore as much as BMW quality standards were there not necessarily were enforced by all the players generating that drop in quality, reliability and durability.

Mac, the percentage of BMWs in the used car market is quite small, just as they are in the new car market, so a few more coming off lease doesn't change anything. About the only car brand with a more precipitous drop in value from new to used is Mercedes. Let the fresh money buy new, just wait two years and pick up the same $55,000 car for $35,000. It's a two-fold problem: first, the cars are probably overpriced as new; and second, the rapidly deteriorating quality makes second-hand ownership more about your commitment to spend a significant yearly amount on your vehicle enjoyment. You have to have your eyes open and be good at sourcing and wrenching, or not worried about the time and cost of your regular trips to a service bay of your choosing.

As far as supplier quality issues, well...that's the whole point of a quality system, to manage and control the quality all the way through, from design to raw material to component to assembly to delivery. Do it right, do it once. Good management does that; bad management tries to skate by. Volkswagen could have engineered their diesels to pollute less, but they cheaped out; now it will cost them untold billions in fines, repairs, and lost good will.

 

[Weaselboy]

...the rapidly deteriorating quality...

Do you have a source for this, or is it just your impression? I own a BMW and follow the BMW news and forums pretty closely and have not seen any empirical data showing a quality decline.

 

[McGiord]

Mac, the percentage of BMWs in the used car market is quite small, just as they are in the new car market, so a few more coming off lease doesn't change anything. About the only car brand with a more precipitous drop in value from new to used is Mercedes. Let the fresh money buy new, just wait two years and pick up the same $55,000 car for $35,000. It's a two-fold problem: first, the cars are probably overpriced as new; and second, the rapidly deteriorating quality makes second-hand ownership more about your commitment to spend a significant yearly amount on your vehicle enjoyment. You have to have your eyes open and be good at sourcing and wrenching, or not worried about the time and cost of your regular trips to a service bay of your choosing.

As far as supplier quality issues, well...that's the whole point of a quality system, to manage and control the quality all the way through, from design to raw material to component to assembly to delivery. Do it right, do it once. Good management does that; bad management tries to skate by. Volkswagen could have engineered their diesels to pollute less, but they cheaped out; now it will cost them untold billions in fines, repairs, and lost good will.

Buying a used car after one or 2 years makes sense and you can avoid additional expenditures if it is still under original warranty, many in the US offer 3 years for whole vehicle and 5 years for powertrain.
Overpriced or not what I believe happens is that the used car market is extremely aggressive in the US to have the price drop so quickly that almost makes no sense to buy new. Once the car gets out of warranty you opt to get another one or buy extended warranty or simply keep it while doing evil at maintenance: brakes, oil and filter services, wheel alignment, tires rotation, maybe tires relacement depending on how it went, other stuff like spark plugs and accessory belts are no longer as disposable as they used to be.
With full EVs that use a motor in each wheel many of these will be things of the past, even there are some airless tire designs out there.

Certainly how each manufacturer manages their suppliers determines what happens with the quality of the products. It's well known that during those crisis years the whole auto industry went through some rough times and the results are more than evident with all the recalls and things we are currently seeing in the news.

VW's situation is unbelievable, and makes you wonder what were those people thinking when they made that kind of decision?

 

[-hh]

Do you have a source for this, or is it just your impression? I own a BMW and follow the BMW news and forums pretty closely and have not seen any empirical data showing a quality decline.

I know that this is tangential to what you're really looking for, but 'reliability' was one of the reasons why I passed on BMW, specifically because of their change-over to runflat tires.

Not only did my tire shop's owner warn me about them, but in research discussions with coworkers & friends (yes, this is anecdotal), and out of roughly twenty owners that I talked to, only one (1!) of them actually had a set of runflats last long enough to wear out instead of blow out. The rest of these customers (95%) all had horror stories of catastrophic failures, days without the car (due to how the tire insurance works) and/or $500 repair bills. FWIW, the worst was one guy who apparently lives in a really rough-road neighborhood: in 18 months, he had well over a dozen blowouts and 3 cracked rims....and in the past 18 months after he ditched the runflats for conventionals, zero and zero failures.

My engineering assessment here is that the tire tech simply isn't compatible with poor road conditions (eg, potholes), which are rampant due to our local State government trying to starve the repair budget. I even looked into buying it with runflats and then driving the car straight to my tire guy to spend $1500 to have conventional tires put on (and literally throw away $1000+worth of OEM tires), but BMW's current designs have also done away with the spare tire wheel well, which eliminated this as a pragmatic fix to the shortcomings of their product.

 

[e93to]

Don't newer F3x still have hpfp issues?

BMW's overall quality seems to have improved in the recent years though.

 

[Weaselboy]

I know that this is tangential to what you're really looking for, but 'reliability' was one of the reasons why I passed on BMW, specifically because of their change-over to runflat tires.

The RFTs do have their detractors, but I have to say the stories your friends are passing along are WAY off from even the most vocal RFT haters among current owners in the forums. A RFT is just a regular tire with a thicker sidewall, and particularly when they first came out that did cause a rougher ride. I doubt you would notice the difference on newer models. A RFT is no more prone to blowouts or damage than a non-RFT and there is nothing about a RFT that would lead to increased risk of wheel damage. If anything it is the opposite due to the stiffer sidewall.

As far as cost, I just checked Tire Rack. The cost of a 225/45-18 Y-rated (summer tire) OEM for my car is $244. The same Continental tire in non-RFT is $221.

I have now owned five BMWs with RFTs and had one bubble when I smacked a pothole one night at 65MPH. I have to think that pothole would have caused a bubble in any tire. I have driven across country and back three times and thousands of miles in between and other than the one bubble had zero issues with RFTs and they seem to wear at the same rate as a non-RFT.

I don't want to derail this thread with a RFT discussion, but if you want to kick this around over PM, I'm game.

Don't newer F3x still have hpfp issues?

BMW's overall quality seems to have improved in the recent years though.

Nope... the high pressure fuel pump issue was with the N54 engine in the E9x series, and even those seem be sorted out with the latest version of the pump.

 

[Jmausmuc]

It's also capable of reading and obeying road signs.

Lane switching can be fully automated - they said they chose to make it require you to physically hit the switch to allow it to move to ensure that you're actually paying attention to the road.

My 45 mile drive to work consists of .2 miles of driving down my driveway (which they say will be automated next year), 1.1 miles of driving to the high way (which they say will be automated in 2 years), 43 miles of driving along the highway (which is fully automated this year), and then .7 miles of driving to my office (2 years)

That's 43/45 miles automated this year 95.6% - beats their ballpark number of 90%. 43.2/45 next year makes 96% - a little shy of their ballpark number 99%. 45/45 in two years - 100% right when they said it.

Obviously it varies from person to person based on how much highway driving vs surface street driving you do. Most of my commute is on the high way, so most of it will be automated this year.

Well, except for the fact I'm driving a beater right now, and that I'm not in a fiscal position to buy anything new (cash) right now. The bank would finance it if I asked them to, but I've already got credit card debt and a mortgage to deal with - I don't want to also have to deal with financing a car.

I highly doubt surface street driving will be automated within the next 5 years.

The car can read road sings that's true but my BMW has been doing that for 6 years or more now and I can tell you even a friends Tesla keeps missing them.

Just the other day, we drove trough a construction zone and and car did not notice the limit. It still showed 60.

 

[-hh]

The RFTs do have their detractors, but I have to say the stories your friends are passing along are WAY off from even the most vocal RFT haters among current owners in the forums.

I understand it is a YMMV, although when they include trustworthy employees calling in for a day off for a repair, I'm inclined to believe that they really did have a tire failure.

A RFT is just a regular tire with a thicker sidewall, and particularly when they first came out that did cause a rougher ride. I doubt you would notice the difference on newer models. A RFT is no more prone to blowouts or damage than a non-RFT and there is nothing about a RFT that would lead to increased risk of wheel damage. If anything it is the opposite due to the stiffer sidewall.

From an Engineering standpoint, the thicker & stiffer sidewall tolerates less deformation before it fails...and an exasperating factor is also the trend towards lower profile tires: even stiffer and less latitude.

As far as cost, I just checked Tire Rack. The cost of a 225/45-18 Y-rated (summer tire) OEM for my car is $244. The same Continental tire in non-RFT is $221.

And packages with 19" or 20" rims are common, so bump it from $282 for a 225/45R19 Pirelli P Zero/Summer to $376 for a 245/35ZR20 (same) ... and while these aren't all that much more vs conventional (I agree that prices have narrowed since when I first started looking in 2013), many first generation BMW marque buyers aren't going to mail-order Tire Rack, but go get soaked at their dealer...and even a $300 tire is a far cry from the $55 'Sears Guardsman' for their old Ford. Sticker shock.

I have now owned five BMWs with RFTs and had one bubble when I smacked a pothole one night at 65MPH. I have to think that pothole would have caused a bubble in any tire. I have driven across country and back three times and thousands of miles in between and other than the one bubble had zero issues with RFTs and they seem to wear at the same rate as a non-RFT.

Similarly, I can also recognize that I'm probably in a geographical region (NY/NJ) which happens to have a higher-than-average failure rate - - - but by the same token, this also means that this particular factor becomes more important (not less) for my personal vehicle choices...a YMMV.

EDIT: and similarly, our 3-car family fleet has had only two tire failures in the past 25 years, both of which were nail punctures picked up after hurricane debris...total repair cost <$25.

I don't want to derail this thread with a RFT discussion, but if you want to kick this around over PM, I'm game.

Too late, although I think we've pretty much run this horse down to glue ...

... I'll get us back closer to topic by noting that it seems like most speculation is assuming that Apple is working on an electric car, and ask of those who have relevant experience in this area for how much their range is reduced by winter climate cabin heating and defrosting of ice/snow. I've had the fun of some winter precipitation messes turn a 10 mile (20 minute) commute into an energy-intense (heat+defrosters) 3 hour slog...