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I don't understand the "replacement" argument anyway. Surely Apple wants you to own as many of their products as possible, so why would they want you to throw out your Mac, iPhone, and iPad and replace them with a single pair of goggles? I guess acting like "spatial computing" is going to replace other types of computing makes it sound like a more compelling product, that you're selling the future or whatever, and all other tech will soon be obsolete, but it doesn't make a lot of sense from an Apple business standpoint. I'm always skeptical of any enthusiastic "this will replace X!" marketing, because it's rarely the case. Some things just can't be superseded anyway. The physical keyboard was invented 100+ years ago and it's still the best way to type. 🤷‍♂️
Apple isn't above cannibalizing themselves. They did it with Apple][ to Mac, iPod to iPhones (and iPod touch which ultimately was also cannibalized by the iPhone), iTunes Store with Apple Music, Apple TV+, etc. Although I'm not quite sure what markets this will cannibalize, if any. Their monitor sales might go down some, possibly iPad sales, but iPads can also be had cheap at $330 and $1000+ at high end and all of those devices still do the same basic things, and Apple will need a range like that for Vision Pro I think before it even would have a chance to truly cannibalize something.
 
The Quest Pro is what I would consider the premium end of the market.
Because all the Quests at least give you the included value of standalone capable, I would have put the over $1000 headsets that don't even work without a PC into the "premium" class, but okay. Quest Pro intro price of $1499, even as a loss leader for Facebook. Price dropped, apparently when they realized people were not willing to pay that much for a premium product from Facebook. We will have to see if Apple drops their AVP price similarly.

Since the resolution is lower than even the Quest 3 now, I'm curious to see if they are going to do a Pro 2 soon, as the Pro is getting to be a tough sell compared to the Quest 3 in most comparisons these days, let alone versus the displays on the AVP. The sneak peaks from the stuff in their labs look interesting, so maybe they will be able to aim higher now that the AVP has shown that their original $1499 wasn't as unreasonable as some people claimed. My fear is that they will just go mainstream and not continue the Pro line, but I personally think that VR needs the competition.
 
I don't understand the "replacement" argument anyway. Surely Apple wants you to own as many of their products as possible, so why would they want you to throw out your Mac, iPhone, and iPad and replace them with a single pair of goggles? I guess acting like "spatial computing" is going to replace other types of computing makes it sound like a more compelling product, that you're selling the future or whatever, and all other tech will soon be obsolete, but it doesn't make a lot of sense from an Apple business standpoint. I'm always skeptical of any enthusiastic "this will replace X!" marketing, because it's rarely the case. Some things just can't be superseded anyway. The physical keyboard was invented 100+ years ago and it's still the best way to type. 🤷‍♂️

I'm sure Apple would like that, but sometimes you run the risk of holding a future product back because you're not willing to take a hit elsewhere.

Take the iPod and the iPhone. They could have absolutely not put the iPod capabilities in the phone to attempt to sell you both an iPod and and iPhone, but I suspect many early adopters justified spending more because it combined multiple devices. I know I did. We can only speculate, but I wonder if the iPhone would have been the success it is today if they hadn't sacrificed the iPod.

Look at the iPad. I genuinely think it has the potential to be a truly transformative product that's primarily held back because Apple wants to sell you both a MacBook and an iPad, which many people don't need.
 
Because all the Quests at least give you the included value of standalone capable, I would have put the over $1000 headsets that don't even work without a PC into the "premium" class, but okay. Quest Pro intro price of $1499, even as a loss leader for Facebook. Price dropped, apparently when they realized people were not willing to pay that much for a premium product from Facebook. We will have to see if Apple drops their AVP price similarly.

Since the resolution is lower than even the Quest 3 now, I'm curious to see if they are going to do a Pro 2 soon, as the Pro is getting to be a tough sell compared to the Quest 3 in most comparisons these days, let alone versus the displays on the AVP. The sneak peaks from the stuff in their labs look interesting, so maybe they will be able to aim higher now that the AVP has shown that their original $1499 wasn't as unreasonable as some people claimed. My fear is that they will just go mainstream and not continue the Pro line, but I personally think that VR needs the competition.

Here’s my prediction.

The Vision Pro will continue to do well despite its price, because the perceived value is there. I don’t expect the price to drop significantly with the second gen. It costs more because it costs more to make. Simple as that.

The biggest problem with the quest headset is that it isn’t making a profit for Facebook, so the more units they sell, the more money they lose. And like you said, people are only buying one because of its cheaper price. It remains to be seen how long Meta is willing to keep subsidising a loss leader.

It’s the whole iPhone vs android handset situation all over again.
 
this is hands down the best review I’ve seen; it shows both how disruptive and novel it is and strangely, for me, a more convincing argument for it to exist than most other takes (Notwithstanding the inevitability of idiots using it on a scooter) Anyway, if it hasn’t been posted before, enjoy:
(and how nice are the people of New York?!)
 
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Here’s my prediction.

The Vision Pro will continue to do well despite its price, because the perceived value is there. I don’t expect the price to drop significantly with the second gen. It costs more because it costs more to make. Simple as that.

The biggest problem with the quest headset is that it isn’t making a profit for Facebook, so the more units they sell, the more money they lose. And like you said, people are only buying one because of its cheaper price. It remains to be seen how long Meta is willing to keep subsidising a loss leader.

It’s the whole iPhone vs android handset situation all over again.
You may very well be correct, but I am expecting Apple will at least have some room to lower the pricing if they can get Sony to ramp up more production of, or get a second source for the displays. That kind of new display tech is usually the kind of thing where volume and production improvements do drop the manufacturing cost substantially, and the percentage of the AVP cost is huge.

Just to clarify, I’m not sure Meta are actually losing money per unit based on their parts price, assuming you remove the development costs, but I doubt they are making much or any profit per unit sold. That said, the last I read, they are charging 30% commission on sales from their app store, and an extra 17.5% (so 47.5%) on anything bought through Horizon Worlds, so that would be able to subsidize a lot of hardware, if their software buy rates are high. This is again one of the reasons I think many of the complaints against Apple’s rates seem either unaware of reality or else intentionally biased.
 
I'm sure Apple would like that, but sometimes you run the risk of holding a future product back because you're not willing to take a hit elsewhere.

Take the iPod and the iPhone. They could have absolutely not put the iPod capabilities in the phone to attempt to sell you both an iPod and and iPhone, but I suspect many early adopters justified spending more because it combined multiple devices. I know I did. We can only speculate, but I wonder if the iPhone would have been the success it is today if they hadn't sacrificed the iPod.

Look at the iPad. I genuinely think it has the potential to be a truly transformative product that's primarily held back because Apple wants to sell you both a MacBook and an iPad, which many people don't need.
While I fully agree with the sentiment, I’m not sure you can say that they sacrificed the iPod for the iPhone, as they introduced the Touch a year after the iPhone because the demand for that form factor was so high. Effectively, the iPhone increased demand for the Touch. I guess that eventually the iPhone became so ubiquitous that the iPod became redundant, but it was also because the iPod market was pretty much saturated, too.

As an owner of iPads, MacBooks, and touchscreen Surfaces, though, I can tell you that I now hate upgrading my MacOS and iPadOS versions because they seem to be merging the two, and I prefer them separate (I guess it doesn’t help that Apple always seems to somehow know the features I least like and keep those while dropping the stuff I do like. Or maybe it just feels that way. :() I can see adding capabilities to the iPad, but merging them just makes something that feels to me like less than the sum of its parts.
 
Here’s my prediction.

The Vision Pro will continue to do well despite its price, because the perceived value is there. I don’t expect the price to drop significantly with the second gen. It costs more because it costs more to make. Simple as that.

Depends on what you mean by "well." I just don't see the mass market appeal at this price point because I don't see many households buying a $3.5k gadget on top of the smartphones, TVs, screens, laptops and/or desktops they will need regardless.

I don't know if I'm misreading the economic reality, but I just don't see anyone but the affluent to splurge on an expensive toy that no one really needs and that can't really replace any of the other tech I have in my house.

I know I'm repeating myself, but I think the problem for the AVP will be that it's not just comparably expensive, but that it's actually expensive.

It’s the whole iPhone vs android handset situation all over again.

Or it could be the whole Mac vs PC situation all over again, with a cheaper good enough product cornering the market.

Compared to the 90s I don't see a risk of Apple going bankrupt because financially the AVP is a side project at best.
 
Depends on what you mean by "well." I just don't see the mass market appeal at this price point because I don't see many households buying a $3.5k gadget on top of the smartphones, TVs, screens, laptops and/or desktops they will need regardless.

I don't know if I'm misreading the economic reality, but I just don't see anyone but the affluent to splurge on an expensive toy that no one really needs and that can't really replace any of the other tech I have in my house.

I know I'm repeating myself, but I think the problem for the AVP will be that it's not just comparably expensive, but that it's actually expensive.



Or it could be the whole Mac vs PC situation all over again, with a cheaper good enough product cornering the market.

Compared to the 90s I don't see a risk of Apple going bankrupt because financially the AVP is a side project at best.
I think they will sell to some people that are not “affluent“. The payment plan will have some stretching their budget for a year. I do agree that it won’t be a mass market product like an iPhone anytime soon, with that price, though. Apple will give this a long runway and hopefully make a non-“pro” version at a more reasonable price point.
this is hands down the best review I’ve seen; it shows both how disruptive and novel it is and strangely, for me, a more convincing argument for it to exist than most other takes (Notwithstanding the inevitability of idiots using it on a scooter) Anyway, if it hasn’t been posted before, enjoy:
(and how nice are the people of New York?!)
This video was just weird and I hope this type of behavior never becomes mainstream. The lack of cellphone etiquette by so many makes me wonder what type of behavior this type of product will bring. I was surprised by his difficulty using it on the subway.
 
I think the price has to come down significantly before Cook can compare this product to products like Macs and iPhones. It’s a bit of an extravagant niche product right now due to it costing several thousand dollars/pounds.

Theres also this transition stage where people are impressed by the concept, but trying to figure out whether they need one or what it could possibly replace. I’ve watched loads of the reviews on this product and it’s undoubtedly an impressive piece of product design. Not sure why I need one though or what I’d use it for in place of what I already have? It’s a strange one, but I think it’ll have its select market to some degree.
 
I don’t know if it’s weird - but it’s revealing… the likeable thing about is it’s in the everyday world, whereas almost every other video is in or around a carefully organised studio setup. But yes, if it catches on there’s going to be some social adjustment… not least watching out for feral scooter boys!
 
I don’t know if it’s weird - but it’s revealing… the likeable thing about is it’s in the everyday world, whereas almost every other video is in or around a carefully organised studio setup. But yes, if it catches on there’s going to be some social adjustment… not least watching out for feral scooter boys!
Having someone hunt and peck out a text on an invisible keyboard on the stairs exiting the subway or sitting next to people on a busy street wearing huge goggles and using your hands to push around (invisible to eveyone else) windows, or standing around in a donut shop waiving around a donut is weird by my standards, but I don’t live in NYC ;).
 
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Having someone hunt and peck out a text on an invisible keyboard on the stairs exiting the subway or sitting next to people on a busy street wearing huge goggles and using your hands to push around (invisible to eveyone else) windows, or standing around in a donut shop waiving around a donut is weird by my standards, but I don’t live in NYC ;).
lol… because that’s exactly the kind of situations its going to create, unless people hide in their rec rooms and are too embarrassed to go outside. I admire this guy’s self confidence, though - and that sweet old guy on the subway “enjoy the rest of your adventure!” far more enjoyable than a sterile unbox
 
lol… because that’s exactly the kind of situations its going to create, unless people hide in their rec rooms and are too embarrassed to go outside. I admire this guy’s self confidence, though - and that sweet old guy on the subway “enjoy the rest of your adventure!” far more enjoyable than a sterile unbox
I am a fan of Casey and not surprised he would take it out to the streets. I think most people will be using this while sitting somewhere.. plane, coffee shop, home, airport, etc. Other than possibly navigation, I can’t see a reason why a normal person would want to have heavy goggles strapped to their face when out and about. Maybe when they adopt a more glasses style of design it will make more sense. This is really too cumbersome to make it the norm.
 
The plan is to make it a success. Time will tell. Yet a lot of pundits here are declaring it dead already and calling Tim Cook a failure. Already! That, to me, seems to be an unreasonable position to take.

Give it some time and then we can assess whether the plan is working. Maybe not five years, but definitely more than five days. All I'm saying is that I can't be second-guessing all of these companies and their fundamentals. They are doing their own things, for better or for worse, and there will be ups and downs, naturally. Isn't everyone concerned that iPhone has peaked? And now they want Apple to hit another homerun. It's a really big ask IMHO.

Absolutely, I think Apple has the money and patience to make this something that at the very least turns a profit for them. I'm personally not worried because they look strong on all other fronts, and I value companies which are willing to lay it out on the line and take a risk. As it stands today I can't see the VP as anything more than a clunky, uncomfortable, glorified VR headset, but I highly look forward to buying version 5 or 6.
 
I think that's because there aren't many "industries" that VR can take over; which I view as for mostly entertainment.

Apple going deep on AR is totally different. It's just a matter of time for Apple and developers (now that they can purchase an AVP for development) to write the applications; a dozen or two potential use cases that I've written about here in the past. Those just scratched the surface - there are far more.

It's kind of like when Apple entered the smartphone market. There were other smart phones available at the time from Motorola, Ericsson, Nokia (referred to as MEN in the industry), etc. Apple released iPhone with far more useful functionality and features, and the rest is history. If Apple had instead released an iPhone that merely did the same functions as those from MEN, the iPhone would not have been competitive, and for sure would have failed.

But they are going into an AR world with a VR headset, that's what I find a bit baffling. IMO they should have made a really great AR set of glasses with strong development, the "killer app" would simply be an overlay over the world with stuff you already find in Apple maps and Google. But that's just me, heck if I know more than a trillion dollar company and its marketing team!! We'll see if those industrial, specialized users are enough to make Apple a profit worthy of them, I don't know how that profit ratio works out versus having something very mass market driven like the iPhone. But again, no disagreement, the devs will make this product segment. I just hope there is something magical about Apple devs that the other VR devs, who have been working on VR for years now, haven't thought of.

I think much of the iPhone's success was also simply based on popularity and Apple's approach to marketing themselves as a premium brand which people flock to in large part because it's important to have that Apple logo somewhere on your person. Similar to the iPad being dumbed down I feel the iPhone dumbed down the smartphones of the time, but I'm obviously wrong from a consumer point of view because simplicity is exactly what consumers wanted. Premium segments at much higher price points are where it's at these days, and Apple painting the VP as the most premium option is, of course, part of their strategy.
 
Can you please name the headsets you are thinking of here, because I thought I had a fairly decent knowledge of VR and I cannot think of one, let alone many companies making anything with the description you just gave. Apparently, I need to do some more research. (The blowout pricing on the Vive XR Elite sounds temping, except I read some reviews, so I assume you aren’t talking about that one.)

Sure, check out visor.com I'm NOT saying this is a direct competitor, obviously they don't have the developers or app store Apple has, and they are positioning these for business users who first and foremost want to have multiple virtual screens out of their computers. But the hardware is mostly there in a much smaller package at a much cheaper price. Lastly I say this with the caveat that I haven't personally used either of these so can't compare, the visor may be awful, but I'm not getting that impression from reviews of their older units.
 
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ActiveSync! I've been on smartphones since the late 1990s. First PDAs like the HP Jornada, then connected PDAs like Palm Pilot VII, then Treos, then Pocket PC's like the i-mate Pocket PC and models from HTC. That's back in the day, when Handango and other app stores used to be a thing :)


View attachment 2345188

Man I miss these days, I was on the Pocket PC wagon for years, my first few didn't even have cellular service but had to be used with a Sprint CDMA 1xrtt module/card and VOIP.
 
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But they are going into an AR world with a VR headset, that's what I find a bit baffling. IMO they should have made a really great AR set of glasses with strong development, the "killer app" would simply be an overlay over the world with stuff you already find in Apple maps and Google. But that's just me, heck if I know more than a trillion dollar company and its marketing team!! We'll see if those industrial, specialized users are enough to make Apple a profit worthy of them, I don't know how that profit ratio works out versus having something very mass market driven like the iPhone. But again, no disagreement, the devs will make this product segment. I just hope there is something magical about Apple devs that the other VR devs, who have been working on VR for years now, haven't thought of.

I think much of the iPhone's success was also simply based on popularity and Apple's approach to marketing themselves as a premium brand which people flock to in large part because it's important to have that Apple logo somewhere on your person. Similar to the iPad being dumbed down I feel the iPhone dumbed down the smartphones of the time, but I'm obviously wrong from a consumer point of view because simplicity is exactly what consumers wanted. Premium segments at much higher price points are where it's at these days, and Apple painting the VP as the most premium option is, of course, part of their strategy.

It's also an excellent AR headset, with loads of potential applications possibilities (I've written about a dozen or two of app possibilities here in the past). The apps will come as developers and Apple write them. Being very application specific (as opposed to VR), that will take time.

Glasses will come.
 
For me personally I'm trying to get away from the computer, the iPhone, and my iPads. Not spend more time in front of a screen/AR. I don't see the magic at all after your initial AR experience it's just another expensive toy at the end of the day.
 
It's also an excellent AR headset, with loads of potential applications possibilities (I've written about a dozen or two of app possibilities here in the past). The apps will come as developers and Apple write them. Being very application specific (as opposed to VR), that will take time.

Glasses will come.

It's an AWFUL AR headset, but that's only MY opinion. If I want something to overlay reality, it's not a set of super clunky, heavy, goggles which have a limited FOV, lower color gamut than my eyes can see, latency, and a huge abstraction from reality and other people. For today's technology AR and VR are divided, sure you can get something that Frankenstein's them together, but it will suffer just like the VP.
 
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