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Apple CEO Tim Cook: 'It Feels to Me China is Getting Coronavirus Under Control'
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When you think of all the people that are bringing the virus back with them and they allowed back to countries which have not tested positive, only to close their door several weeks later. as only now they'd been tested positive... that doesn't surprise you??
I'll just pin this for future reference.
From what is seemingly happening in that area of China, it appears they are moving forward. While in the USA it appears to be a mixed bag. Tri-state area was and is still being hit very hard as was LA etc. Other areas in the US, not so much. But only the future will tell if the strategy of slow opening up in the US will cause a deadly spike in those areas that are totally ignoring safety and social distancing.
I'm concerned about China at this point. I mean, 2 months ago they were the only source of info. Now we have more reliable sources that make China's reported death toll scream data falsification like nothing else. And here's the concern. I doubt they've reached herd immunity, and even if they did, nobody knows whether herd immunity is transient and if it his, how short-lived it may be. So not hearing about a second wave in China is not any reassurance at all. I think we are seeing a delay in rural US, but the issue is that these are the areas where the population is much much more at risk of severe disease (obesity, smoking, limited infrastructure).
We are at 5K in a marathon. But...what's uplifting is that social distancing combined with masks work, and will hopefully continue working in a gradually reopened economy.
Social distancing combined with masks gets you that "reliable data that makes China's reported death toll scream falsification".
The thing is that China did something no other country has done in response to it. They didn't seek herd immunity, they sought to treat the virus like a bunch of candles and full-on lockdown and testing like a snuffer. Other countries haven't scratched the surface of what China set out to do/was able to do. "Freedom" comes at a cost.
As an example, many Chinese cities mandated testing of every student returning to school in the days before they actually returned. Here's one city that tested over 140,000 kids in a few days regardless of symptoms.
Within 2 weeks of that test, over 1 million students had gone back to school. So at least 60,000 tests processed per day in the interim period (actually likely to have much, much higher peaks and days with very few). In one city.
Has New York City managed to hit its (lower) testing targets?
NYC only conducting 13,000 coronavirus tests daily even as new capacity is added
Only 13,000 coronavirus tests are conducted in New York City each day, far less than is needed for pandemic restrictions to be lifted despite efforts to add new capacity, officials said Thursday. T…
www.nydailynews.com
Not to mention that China has the testing capacity now to roll out mandatory tests across the city of Wuhan.
Coronavirus: All Wuhan residents to get COVID-19 test after new outbreak
Older people and densely populated communities will be prioritised after six people tested positive over the weekend.
Honestly, as someone on the ground in China... I think your concerns should be way closer to home. There won't be a vaccine anytime soon... and alcohol makes people do some very dumb things (as the gradual reopening in Korea, which was then backtracked, shows).
That's the perfect example of someone who probably lives in a big city having a huge disconnect from what most of America is. Most of America is very spread out but everyone outside of the cities is definitely not a poor, fat, smoking, country bumpkin. You're thinking of Wisconsin. A contagious disease of any type is just not going to be the same threat level in most of the country as in New York City. People are so spread out, have (literally) acres of space, individual cars instead of public transit, less people working in dense office environments, I could go on. It just can't spread in most places the way it can spread in dense metropolis, and in my opinion it's stupid to apply the same strategies to the whole country at once.
Social distancing combined with masks gets you that "reliable data that makes China's reported death toll scream falsification".
The thing is that China did something no other country has done in response to it. They didn't seek herd immunity, they sought to treat the virus like a bunch of candles and full-on lockdown and testing like a snuffer. Other countries haven't scratched the surface of what China set out to do/was able to do. "Freedom" comes at a cost.
As an example, many Chinese cities mandated testing of every student returning to school in the days before they actually returned. Here's one city that tested over 140,000 kids in a few days regardless of symptoms.
Within 2 weeks of that test, over 1 million students had gone back to school. So at least 60,000 tests processed per day in the interim period (actually likely to have much, much higher peaks and days with very few). In one city.
Has New York City managed to hit its (lower) testing targets?
NYC only conducting 13,000 coronavirus tests daily even as new capacity is added
Only 13,000 coronavirus tests are conducted in New York City each day, far less than is needed for pandemic restrictions to be lifted despite efforts to add new capacity, officials said Thursday. T…
Not to mention that China has the testing capacity now to roll out mandatory tests across the city of Wuhan.
Coronavirus: All Wuhan residents to get COVID-19 test after new outbreak
Older people and densely populated communities will be prioritised after six people tested positive over the weekend.news.sky.com
Honestly, as someone on the ground in China... I think your concerns should be way closer to home. There won't be a vaccine anytime soon... and alcohol makes people do some very dumb things (as the gradual reopening in Korea, which was then backtracked, shows).
I will take news of China aggressively testing their people with a huge grain of salt, given that they were the ones who export faulty test kits to the other countries in the first place.
The "faulty" tests were rapid testing kits. They were not the same kind of tests that China is conducting. China's mass testing uses the method in the article below, and lab results take up to 48 hours to process.
Mandatory Nucleic Acid Tests for International Arrivals: What to Expect
The test is a painless, but not entirely comfortable procedure.
Not to mention that China has the testing capacity now to roll out mandatory tests across the city of Wuhan.
Coronavirus: All Wuhan residents to get COVID-19 test after new outbreak
Older people and densely populated communities will be prioritised after six people tested positive over the weekend.
The article also strikes me as odd.
Wuhan has a population of 11 million.
They are able to test 100,000 people a day. Over ten days, they should only be able to test 1 million people max.
Simple math means that it would take about 110 days, over close to 4 months, to complete testing everyone.
Unless they are somehow able to ramp up their testing capabilities so rapidly, I am not sure how the math is supposed to work out...?
If China does test 11 million people and they tests are found to be high quality, I will definitely eat crow and admit it's an amazing logistical achievement. Until then, you will have to forgive me for being skeptical of these claims which frankly sound too amazing to be true.
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Since it's such a road block to you believing anything else you read... have you considered questioning where you are getting the 100,000 a day figure from? I've seen it in a few articles but the point at which the capacity was 100,000 is never stated (is it current?) and it's usually presented as an assumption rather than stated fact.
Remember that a lot of China's early "fake numbers" were caused by a backlog in testing from when they could only handle testing in the 100s per day nationally. To then go to 100,000 a day in one city... It's not beyond reason that they would continue. Or that they'd find a way to make use of excess capacity in other cities.
In fairness it's probably somewhere in that grey area in the middle (and won't actually be 1 million per day), because they're going to bend the definition of 10 days to, seemingly, 20 or more.
Coronavirus: China's plan to test everyone in Wuhan
Officials said they planned to test all 11 million people in the city of Wuhan.
news.yahoo.com
The "faulty" tests were rapid testing kits. They were not the same kind of tests that China is conducting. China's mass testing uses the method in the article below, and lab results take up to 48 hours to process.
Mandatory Nucleic Acid Tests for International Arrivals: What to Expect
The test is a painless, but not entirely comfortable procedure.www.thebeijinger.com
Seems like they knew the rapid-testing kits didn’t work (if they don’t use them themselves) but marketed and exported them anyway. They’ve been guilty of exporting faulty masks and PPE too, or maybe it’s the Western governments to blame for being stupid enough to buy them.
And if they’re this shining light of pandemic control why are they so against an independent review of the origins of Covid-19, resorting to bullying tactics and trade-war spats like a petulant child? The fact they’re against it makes a review more justified in my opinion.
Bottom line is: don’t trust China, China is...
Covid fiasco as supply of vital NHS protective equipment faces delays
Chris Hopson of NHS Providers has given a shocking insight into the struggles of the medical service, with much of the vital supplies coming from China failing UK safety checks upon arrival.
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Since it's such a road block to you believing anything else you read... have you considered questioning where you are getting the 100,000 a day figure from? I've seen it in a few articles but the point at which the capacity was 100,000 is never stated (is it current?) and it's usually presented as an assumption rather than stated fact.
Remember that a lot of China's early "fake numbers" were caused by a backlog in testing from when they could only handle testing in the 100s per day nationally. To then go to 100,000 a day in one city... It's not beyond reason that they would continue. Or that they'd find a way to make use of excess capacity in other cities.
In fairness it's probably somewhere in that grey area in the middle (and won't actually be 1 million per day), because they're going to bend the definition of 10 days to, seemingly, 20 or more.
Coronavirus: China's plan to test everyone in Wuhan
Officials said they planned to test all 11 million people in the city of Wuhan.
Well, I am going off their own state media website.
I don’t claim to have an excellent grasp of mandarin, but I am Singaporean Chinese, and am still able to hold my own when it comes to conversing or writing in Mandarin.
So back to my earlier point, unless Wuhan officials are able to suddenly produce ten times the number of testing kits (and muster the manpower necessary to administer and process that many kits), the math isn’t adding up.
Not every enterprise in China is state-owned. It would be like blaming Obama for Antennagate.
There's been a remarkable amount of stupidity and panic on the part of Western governments. Seems the UK, for example, lurched from misstep to misstep too in search of PPE, because the stuff they tried to source from Turkey was also junk. Any country is going to keep the best stuff for themselves.
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Well, I am going off their own state media website.
I don’t claim to have an excellent grasp of mandarin, but I am Singaporean Chinese, and am still able to hold my own when it comes to conversing or writing in Mandarin.
So back to my earlier point, unless Wuhan officials are able to suddenly produce ten times the number of testing kits (and muster the manpower necessary to administer and process that many kits), the math isn’t adding up.
Heh, you're right. That's recent.
The capacity figure has more than doubled in 4weeks though.
Wuhan finds 182 asymptomatic cases after testing over 270,000
The city of Wuhan has recently conducted more than 270,000 nucleic acid tests, among which 182 were found to be cases carrying the novel coronavirus but showing no symptoms, a local newspaper reported.
www.chinadaily.com.cn
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The capacity figure has more than doubled in 4weeks though.
Wuhan finds 182 asymptomatic cases after testing over 270,000
The city of Wuhan has recently conducted more than 270,000 nucleic acid tests, among which 182 were found to be cases carrying the novel coronavirus but showing no symptoms, a local newspaper reported.
I am not seeing in the article where it mentions that testing capacity has risen.
I guess at this point, I am not really sure whether the numbers can be trusted, regardless of their source. Here in Singapore, we still have about two more weeks before our circuit breaker (kinda like a soft lockdown) is lifted, and I guess I am concerned about how our country plans to manage the pandemic moving forward, especially since we have a massive outbreak amongst our foreign worker population.
Just the restlessness and frustration speaking here, I guess, so do forgive me if I have offended you or anyone else here.
I am not seeing in the article where it mentions that testing capacity has risen.
I guess at this point, I am not really sure whether the numbers can be trusted, regardless of their source. Here in Singapore, we still have about two more weeks before our circuit breaker (kinda like a soft lockdown) is lifted, and I guess I am concerned about how our country plans to manage the pandemic moving forward, especially since we have a massive outbreak amongst our foreign worker population.
Just the restlessness and frustration speaking here, I guess, so do forgive me if I have offended you or anyone else here.
"At present, Wuhan has a total of 53 nucleic acid testing institutions and 211 venues for sample collection. With a daily capacity of 40,000 tests, the demand from Wuhan residents who are willing to be tested will be well met," a staff member of the Wuhan health commission was quoted as saying.
The article was dated a month ago. 40,000 < 100,000. The capacity figure has more than doubled in 4 weeks
That's the perfect example of you making a prejudiced statement about someone who doesn't share your opinion. I lived and took care of people in rural rust belt towns. Beyond personal and work experience, my statement is supported by data. Obesity, Smoking (2), and the undeserved area finder tells you about the infrastructural issues.
"in my opinion it's stupid to apply the same strategies to the whole country at once."
Having a national strategy and taking population density into consideration are not mutually exclusive. Also, while you are correct about social distancing embedded in the rural infrastructure (or the lack thereof), you should also think about places of mass gathering, such as schools that are not so different.
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I definitely don't want to pick up on this blame China narrative, because the USA doesn't have the moral high ground in this matter. China fought this virus very hard, and put out important information in the medical literature that was blatantly ignored or misrepresented by the heads of western governments. Just look at the timeline in this very forum with people suddenly starting to care about flu-related deaths... So no, had this started from the USA, we would not have done a better job at all halting the epidemic.
However, the mortality numbers reported from China that is 1) the most populous nation, 2) has one of the most densely populated cities, 3) dealt with a new virus first without info from anyone else, 4) has bad general respiratory health due to pollution; so no, no matter how well they tested, those mortality numbers do not make any sense. I voiced my concerns about the situation being underplayed and Tim Cook pandering to this, about 2 months ago.
My concerns are all over, because it's more likely that the immunity to the virus will be transient, and COVID will become a recurring/constant issue. I agree though, some of the lock down being relaxed and the nice weather coming out, people started acting like the virus was gone...We'll have a ridiculous surge in 2 weeks.
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There's a lot of issue with a lot of tests' sensitivity. Lot's of places test people twice to reduce false negative rates. It's such a mess, even a few weeks ago I've had a hard time finding peer reviewed data in the medical literature about their accuracy (sensitivity/specificity).
That situation is a politically motivated mess. The context is important because the calls for inquiry almost sound like looking for WMD, whereas it is very very very unlikely that this came from a lab, and there are dozens of scientifically more sound reasons it came from China. We do need to better understand the origins and dynamics of a pandemic like this because this won't be the last in our lifetime.
...defensive much? No one said everyone in rural areas is a “poor, fat, smoking, country bumpkin.” But poverty, obesity, and smoking are all, in fact, more prevalent in rural areas versus urban areas. That’s obviously false. The person you were replying to linked sources for their claims. Rural areas also tend to be older, which also increases risk.
I live in a highly rural area and I’m not kidding myself about the issues that these factors present, especially in combination with each other, along with infrastructural issues, should there be an outbreak. There are fewer resources available, in general, to treat people who are demographically prone to get sicker. Sure, it may not spread like wildfire in rural areas, but those to whom it does spread may have a much worse time with the disease compared to urban areas. That’s all that was being said.
Not every enterprise in China is state-owned. It would be like blaming Obama for Antennagate.
There's been a remarkable amount of stupidity and panic on the part of Western governments. Seems the UK, for example, lurched from misstep to misstep too in search of PPE, because the stuff they tried to source from Turkey was also junk. Any country is going to keep the best stuff for themselves.
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Heh, you're right. That's recent.
The capacity figure has more than doubled in 4weeks though.
Wuhan finds 182 asymptomatic cases after testing over 270,000
The city of Wuhan has recently conducted more than 270,000 nucleic acid tests, among which 182 were found to be cases carrying the novel coronavirus but showing no symptoms, a local newspaper reported.
Australia also fell victim to the shoddy Chinese tests after purchasing 1.5 million of them. Again, I use the term “victim” loosely, because it partly reflects on the buyer if they spend so much on unproven products, especially from a country who are not known for putting quality first. Why, for instance, years after the baby formula poisoning scandal do Chinese keep hoarding Australian-made product?
Yes, the US is the epitome of capitalist, corporate freedom, so many companies get away with murder (not literally though, unlike in China). But do you seriously think major contracts with foreign governments for health equipment during the midst of a global pandemic is not controlled by the CCP? Sorry, but you’re coming across as a total Chinese apologist.
I put it to you that the vast majority of exporting companies in China are state owned or controlled. And those that aren’t are usually at least infiltrated by CCP-loyal or party figures to ensure that they’re serving party interests; and so they can quickly arrest and “disappear” dissidents, like those calling for greater openness or transparency.
If you have evidence to contrary feel free to share, but there is far too much evidence that this is the case, for obvious reasons. They’re communists after all; or at least claim to be, though the regime is more like fascism in my opinion.
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The real question is how does a country with no independent media, that knowingly steals other companies trade secrets and know how, that allows unfettered stealing of patented technology, that put tariiffs on products without reciprocation, that forces technology sharing in order for companies to set up shop there, and that flouts every single maritime law, ever become and stay a member of the WTO?
The West sold itself out for access to a billion consumers.
The West sold itself out for access to a billion consumers.
Agree with everything you wrote, except countries like Australia and New Zealand went hard early. So too did Korea, but the real case study of what worked so well was Vietnam's and Taiwan's response, they applied the lessons they learnt from the SARS outbreak of 2003.
