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Its all mass media hysteria. Look at the stats of what ages are affected and the likelyhood of infection. Sure, certain age group (very old people) are at risk but if you ask them they mostly say - "I have other things to worry about at my age".
This thing will settle just like everything else. Its just another fear media frenzy to keep us busy.
Compare the numbers to things like Flu etc. and that will paint another picture.
Overall, this is getting silly.
Take a trip to Wuhan then and prove to us it’s “hysteria.”
 
Yes, I am. I multiplied the severe case number by 10x. It's arithmetics, man.
Multiplying by 10 is math, but it’s based on nothing. The ratio of non-severe to severe is much larger than 10. I’ve cited to multiple academic medical papers that show that the fatality rate is more like 0.05% for flu.
 
The stock market didn't go down during the COVID-19 outbreak inside China, instead, it crashed days after the situation in China started to cool down. What took down the stock market is the COVID-19 outbreak in Korea, Italy and Iran. In another word, strictly sticking to the questions Tim was asked about, his answer was not wrong at all.

Correction was coming no matter what. Just needed an excuse. Media sunk their teeth into it is all and caused more panic.

During most routine corrections, as this one is, it’s always the end of the world. We’ll be back to record highs before the fall if not sooner.
 
You are spreading false facts.
The fatality rate has not been determined yet (and it will be only at the end of the outbreak)
At this time the mortality rate is around 3.5% and of those deaths most are age 80+.

More informations and statistics here.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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that's correct.
The only critical factor with COVID-19 is its spreading rate. It is a more aggressive virus than "normal" flu, but not more dangerous.

Sorry I didn't explain myself well. By "case complete mortality" I was referring to the closed cases. The expected outcome after disease has run its course.


As of now, the mortality rate of closed cases sits at 6.9%. It is going down as we speak fortunately.
 
Sorry I didn't explain myself well. By "case complete mortality" I was referring to the closed cases. The expected outcome after disease has run its course.


As of now, the mortality rate of closed cases sits at 6.9%. It is going down as we speak fortunately.

It's not a very meaningful figure. Within Hubei province, it stands at 8.6%. Taking cases outside of China it is currently at 17.7%.
 
You are spreading false facts.
The fatality rate has not been determined yet (and it will be only at the end of the outbreak)
At this time the mortality rate is around 3.5% and of those deaths most are age 80+.

More informations and statistics here.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
[automerge]1582886319[/automerge]

that's correct.
The only critical factor with COVID-19 is its spreading rate. It is a more aggressive virus than "normal" flu, but not more dangerous.

Can you define the medical term aggressive virus? You are contradicting yourself. If something is more deadly (i.e. has higher mortality rate 0.5-2.5% vs. <0.05) [1,2] and more contagious [3-10], it IS more dangerous.

I love how lightly people throw around numbers like 3.5% mortality. Would you want to board a plane if you were told there's a 1 in 30 chance of a fatal crash? Probably not. Would you antagonize those demanding better safety regulations in that setting? I hope not.

Also, mortality rate is not something static. It depends on the comorbidities (not only the age), the genetic make up, nutrition, financial and healthcare infrastructure and resources, population density of the population amongst other factors. The editorial below [1] elaborates on this, how overwhelming an unprepared healthcare system can increase mortality. If this is the case, the worst thing we can do is underestimate the threat.

[1] https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2214-109X(20)30068-1
[2] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S6
[3] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32097725
[4] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.17.20023747v2.full.pdf
[5] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID3545759_code3386367.pdf?abstractid=3543150&mirid=1
[6] https://www.aimspress.com/fileOther/PDF/MBE/mbe-16-05-174.pdf]
[7] https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0218339013400044
[8] https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/ese.17.02.20052-en
[9] https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1750-2659.2012.00388.x
[10] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6670001/

Nothing's more ironic that the same generation that down plays the threat the most is also at the highest risk of dying from it.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 
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Can you define the medical term aggressive virus? You are contradicting yourself. If something is more deadly (i.e. has higher mortality rate 0.5-2.5% vs. <0.05) [1,2] and more contagious [3-10], it IS more dangerous.

I love how lightly people throw around numbers like 3.5% mortality. Would you want to board a plane if you were told there's a 1 in 30 chance of a fatal crash? Probably not. Would you antagonize those demanding better safety regulations in that setting? I hope not.

Also, mortality rate is not something static. It depends on the comorbidities (not only the age), the genetic make up, nutrition, financial and healthcare infrastructure and resources, population density of the population amongst other factors. The editorial below [1] elaborates on this, how overwhelming an unprepared healthcare system can increase mortality. If this is the case, the worst thing we can do is underestimate the threat.

[1] https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2214-109X(20)30068-1
[2] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S6
[3] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32097725
[4] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.17.20023747v2.full.pdf
[5] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID3545759_code3386367.pdf?abstractid=3543150&mirid=1
[6] https://www.aimspress.com/fileOther/PDF/MBE/mbe-16-05-174.pdf]
[7] https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0218339013400044
[8] https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/ese.17.02.20052-en
[9] https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1750-2659.2012.00388.x
[10] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6670001/

Nothing's more ironic that the same generation that down plays the threat the most is also at the highest risk of dying from it.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
It wasn’t me the one speaking about mortality rate in a phase when it is not possible to say.
Now the virus is spreading out of China and real data will be available (we know Chinese government is not exactly famous for being transparent).
Nobody is downplaying the threat, but this is not Ebola and doesn’t have to be treated like that.
[automerge]1583065045[/automerge]
Sorry I didn't explain myself well. By "case complete mortality" I was referring to the closed cases. The expected outcome after disease has run its course.


As of now, the mortality rate of closed cases sits at 6.9%. It is going down as we speak fortunately.
Understood.
Unfortunately those statistics will became relevant only at the end of the crisis.
 
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It wasn’t me the one speaking about mortality rate in a phase when it is not possible to say.
Now the virus is spreading out of China and real data will be available (we know Chinese government is not exactly famous for being transparent).
Nobody is downplaying the threat, but this is not Ebola and doesn’t have to be treated like that.
[automerge]1583065045[/automerge]

Understood.
Unfortunately those statistics will became relevant only at the end of the crisis.

"The only critical factor with COVID-19 is its spreading rate. It is a more aggressive virus than "normal" flu, but not more dangerous."

1. Mortality rate can and should be estimated in every phase of an epidemic. The spreading rate (R0) alone is insufficient to comment on how dangerous a disease is. It's like making a statement on how dangerous a shadow boxer is solely taking their punching speed into consideration. Also, according to your logic we don't need speedometers when we could just calculate the relevant speed AFTER the end of a trip.

2. We are in agreement about the questionable reliability of data coming through the filter of the Chinese government or statements by Tom Cook, but the direction (not the extent) of bias is quite predictable based on the financial interests of the one reporting. In this case that is towards underreporting. The stock market agrees with this notion.

3. When you are saying COVID-19 is "not more dangerous than normal flu", you ARE downplaying its significance. Just because it doesn't carry a punch like Ebola, it's bad enough to disrupt global manufacturing, and in fact any other business that requires large crowds in small spaces.
 
I am confused, neither Italy or SK are tropical or in summer right now. I might be misreading your post.
People were at some point saying that Corona virus only hit countries in tropical regions, as was someone else on here.
 
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OK? Your post doesn’t tell/educate anyone on anything. Why do you think it’s ‘stupid’? He simply offered his opinion on the matter based on the trajectory of declining numbers, just like you have your opinion, he never made any factual statements. Cook addressing the situation doesn’t change anything, it’s his _own personal_ outlook.
And the comment you’re replying to is also an opinion, why are you so defensive of Apple?
 
That’s actually not true.
From what I've read, I haven't seen any deaths from that demographic. I could very well be wrong, but I've been following it and I haven't read any news about it being otherwise. Link me if you have a link handy.
 
From what I've read, I haven't seen any deaths from that demographic. I could very well be wrong, but I've been following it and I haven't read any news about it being otherwise. Link me if you have a link handy.
The doctor who discovered the disease in china was in good health before he contracted the disease and died, just as an example.
 
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