Apple Claims Vision Pro SDK Downloads Exceeded Expectations Amid Developer Lab Attendance Concerns

[JamesHolden]

Well, now that Taylor Swift (or whatever her name is) has pre sold movie tickets for what, $25M+ for her world tour to come to movie theaters - the market is there…

Yes, the market is there for in person movie theater watching, not sitting at home alone with your VR helmet on. People have been saying movie theaters are dead for years now, yet look at Barbie and Oppenheimer. People want to gather in person with other people. They want to dress up, see and be seen, have the opportunity for chance meetings, etc. None of this happens while wearing a VR helmet. Sporting events, concerts, theater, etc. are as much about the performance or game as they are about being part of the crowd. Attending a concert in VR completely neuters that experience.

And for the Quest - beyond gaming no one has apparently interest in different revenue streams. Actually a good example of where Apple is not first to market but a brilliant opportunity for new and future revenue opps

There's a reason the Quest hasn't progressed beyond gaming. Most people aren't interested in all of these "social" VR use cases that socially awkward techies on tech forums keep dreaming up.

 

[Nozuka]

iPhone, iPad, Airpods, Apple Watch......

All of them have one thing in common. A lot of people (maybe even the majority) were laughing about them at the beginning.

And to be fair, all but the Airpods were pretty basic at the beginning and they took a while to improve and find their ground with software updates and apps.

Looking back, it is probably also not the worst idea to skip at least the first gen

 

[JamesHolden]

Again, in the example of you living in LA and me living in Miami and us wanting to "be there" for all of the hometown games in Pittsburg, it would cost a FORTUNE to attend all the games for each of us: travel, lodging, tickets, food, etc... much more than the one-time purchase of Vpro and what a VR sports/concert/show package would probably cost.

Next best thing for us to feel as close to being there as possible without all of that travel-related expense?

If we have the ability to actually go, then yes, in person is a superior experience. But if we can't go, what would be next best experience to feel like we are there together? Watching on televisions in LA and Miami won't come close. One of us going and shooting what we are seeing with our phone and trying to stream to the other won't do it.

I'm not aware that Qwest offering NFL-ST-VR or similar packages equivalent to this idea. Do they? If so, please point me to those offers as I have a few friends who may be interested in a cheaper alternative to Vpro. I'm aware of Occulus basically showing a virtual TV screen for some stuff like MLB but I'm not envisioning that here- not virtual TV- but virtually being there... as in look at the seat next to me and see virtual you there and look behind me and see some of our other friends sitting there with us, etc.

I'd spend the money on traveling, not a Vision Pro. I'd want to be there in person with my friend, experience the game together, go out for dinner before and drinks after, meet random people and have a fun night. What you describe comes across as a pretty hollow experience compared to the real thing and I don't think that will appeal to most people. I'm not denying that it's a perfectly valid use case, but I don't think it's a selling point.

 

[mr.bee]

I want to try it, I am sure it will be great, but I don’t see how it would be a mainstream hit with that price. It’s not like people have some $3500 in their pocket to burn. People put up with price hike of iPhone because they need a phone and the alternative is android. People don’t really “need” Vision Pro.

This will be a niche product, and developers don’t spend their time developing for niche product. They will need to find ways to bring down the price to macbook air (or macbook Pro) range to consider it as Mac alternative / media player.

how about a marketing plan spread over multiple years. The first year the product is very expensive only to be purchased by professionals, influencers and rich people While building a marketplace for it (movies, apps, games,…)
second year promotion and product placement goes up and a cheaper version will be available for the plebs. The plebs have seen the device at their rich friends, on sone retarded social media channel and in films for A whole year.

also you don’t know what you need. There’s a famous Steve Jobs quote about it.

also the iPhone most sold is the most expensive version, the Pro Max. If that’s the most sold iPhone, of course Apple keeps raising the price. people are definitely not “keeping up because they need one”, seriously. ”I have to purchase a Mercedes GLC, how else can I drive my kids to school”…

 

[JamesHolden]

how about a marketing plan spread over multiple years. The first year the product is very expensive only to be purchased by professionals, influencers and rich people While building a marketplace for it (movies, apps, games,…)
second year promotion and product placement goes up and a cheaper version will be available for the plebs. The plebs have seen the device at their rich friends, on sone retarded social media channel and in films for A whole year.

And when has such a strategy ever happened with Apple products? Never. Why do you think it will happen this time?

 

[jclardy]

I'm excited for Vision Pro, but still have my concerns (mainly if the resolution will actually be enough to use comfortably for work.) Also the "check for objects in your space" pop-up is concerning given Meta can now virtually track/identify objects in your space and render them in the virtual world (Basically seems pretty lazy)

SDK downloads is hardly a good metric. Most devs are downloading to get the latest iOS SDKs, and most of those will check the Vision Pro install because they want to try out the simulator.

 

[jz0309]

Yes, the market is there for in person movie theater watching, not sitting at home alone with your VR helmet on. People have been saying movie theaters are dead for years now, yet look at Barbie and Oppenheimer. People want to gather in person with other people. They want to dress up, see and be seen, have the opportunity for chance meetings, etc. None of this happens while wearing a VR helmet. Sporting events, concerts, theater, etc. are as much about the performance or game as they are about being part of the crowd. Attending a concert in VR completely neuters that experience.

sure, today that is. Just look at the past 3 years how the pandemic has changed the "in person" landscape.
and the example of "live concerts" is just one of those "vertical" opportunities, sure, not for everyone but but these vertical opps add up

 

[deconstruct60]

Downloads of the visionOS software development kit (SDK) apparently surpassed Apple's expectations, despite previously reported concerns about developer interest in the Vision Pro headset.

In an interview with Digital Trends, Apple executives indicated that there has been a high level of interest in Vision Pro from developers. The affirmation comes on the heels of concerns highlighted by Bloomberg's Mark Gurman last month claiming that the developer labs have been "under-filled with small amounts of developers." Apple is not offering U.S. developer labs outside of Cupertino, which means any developer that wants to try the Vision Pro must travel to Apple's headquarters in California.

Apple refrained from directly addressing these reports, but Apple vice president of worldwide developer relations Susan Prescott pointed out that there was an "extremely high, three-digit customer satisfaction for the labs that we've run so far."

Number of people at the labs really isn't all that important. Later on in the article there is this more substantive section.

" ...
Orr, Levy, and Oromi of XRHealth have a more specific request: “If Apple had a grant for those developers that cannot afford to purchase a headset or a Mac, it would help not only the developer community, but also empower the world to create more potentially life-changing applications.”

McLeod agrees that hands-on time with a Vision Pro headset is vital for developers. “Apple should be doing their utmost to get as many developers as possible hardware, or at the very least into the labs,” he explains. “This is truly one of those things where you have to try it to get it — I don’t think you can be moved to build something truly great without that in-headset experience.” ... "


If Apple's loaner Vision Pro program is large enough then attendance at the labs is largely immaterial. A substantial number of developers are going to be waiting for more than just one 'work day' ( about 3-6 hours) of hands on time to really dive into a very serious app for Vision Pro. It likely would be a helpful session in uncorking some annoying bugs or settling some debate about interface design. But it is relatively extremely time limited. That time limit is going to keep the usage down (let alone travel costs to/from an extremely narrow set of locations. The more surprsing thing would be that there was tons of folks trying to cram into these once the loaner kits are avaialble. Imagine how far Mac/iPhone apps would get if every Mac developer had to spend a day in Cupertino to get an app done. )


Probing Apple for how many of those NDA locked down Vision Pro loaners have been shipped to developers was far , far , far more substantively important than what the customer satisfcation ratio was on some cherry picked , non-random sampling they did at the customer labs.

Vision Pro loaners AFTER the product starts shipping? ( or short term reasonably priced leases ) . That too could be a bigger issue.

Can do macOS or iOS development on a $599 mini or $429 iPhone SE. Most developers would like something more but the minimal buyin for actual physical hardware is lower. That widens the developer pool. At $3,500 minimum is going to make the pool smaller. Going to get lots more apps that are "just enough" to be ported into a floating window by the simulator and that's it. It will flush out the app store numbers , but won't be huge help to sell the price point.


It is hard to tell how many loaners Apple has shipped out because they are pretty locked down.

"... Once developers have the Vision Pro headset in their hands, however, they won’t be able to share anything. The product is bound by a strict agreement that outlines all of the things developers must do to prevent Vision Pro developer kits (“DK”) from ending up in the wrong hands. ..."

This is what Apple’s doing to prevent Vision Pro dev kits from being left behind in a bar - 9to5Mac

Apple opened applications for the Vision Pro developer kit on Monday, which means the headset will soon be in the...

9to5mac.com

P.S. If Apple gives 1-3K loaners out for 3-4 months before the product ships, then there really should be a problem of having a decent number of apps avaialble at launch. Folks act like the Vision Pro is shipping by Black Friday. It is not. Multipls weeks with the app in a loaner is going to be make a much bigger ecosystem impact than a day in Cupertino. or the "happy time" factor folks felt at the one day at 'Disneyland'.

 

[timborama]

Free download ≠ future sales

 

[PlayUltimate]

iPhone, iPad, Airpods, Apple Watch......

All of them have one thing in common. A lot of people (maybe even the majority) were laughing about them at the beginning.

And to be fair, all but the Airpods were pretty basic at the beginning and they took a while to improve and find their ground with software updates and apps.

Looking back, it is probably also not the worst idea to skip at least the first gen

Yep....Remember standing in the Santa Monica Apple Store to watch Steve Jobs present the original iPod. The gathered crowd sounded interested until the price was announced. Then the in-store grumbling erupted: How this device would never sell. How there were other better options already on the market. Why would anyone pay that price for 5GB?
Sometimes, Apple understands the market better than we do.

 

[Useless Touchbar]

Am I the only one who thinks 3.5k isn't particularly shocking price tag for a tech gadget these days? In 1990 it might have been a down payment for a house, but today that sum is closer to a month's rent.

Plenty of people will buy it if they want to.

 

[Tagbert]

Virtual travel? Hmm

I don't think the vision pro would replace the two weeks I'm going to spend camping and hiking in the PNW this month, but if looking at moving pictures is your jive, go for it.

Perhaps you will be able to record a 3D video while on that hike and then sell the experience to those with disabilities like the poster you were replying to who are unable to take that hike. Not everyone has the option that you do of physically traveling. I could see a market developing of immersive videos of various locations and experiences that would be watched by people who can’t take the trip or who are planning a trip and want to preview the experience.

 

[citysnaps]

Because there are none? Vision Pro's "killer apps" are the big virtual screens, which I don't think will move the needle for most people, and entertainment, which looks quite promising. Will enough people spend $3500+ on a fancy portable movie theater experience that can't be shared with friends and family?

Certain people on these forums keep singing the praises of AR, assuring us again and again that it is a life changing technology. Yet, when you ask any of them to imagine a popular use case for AR....silence. They default to the boring, unimaginative, niche use cases of interior design, architectural walkthroughs, and medical (which will likely never happen since Apple is highly unlikely to have Vision Pro certified by governmental health authorities).

I'm still waiting for someone to give me a use case that appeals to a broad swath of "average" users. I don't think there is a "killer app" for Vision Pro, just like there hasn't been one for the Quest.

Not true. Several times over the years I've posted at least a dozen AR applications. Other people have also posted applications. AR has been in use for awhile.

 

[topdrawer]

the issue again is the developer pipeline. people that would develop in this area are heavily invested in PC. even tho unity started out on mac it uses microsoft's language to program and also VS Code is king in that area, most of the people on unity hate xcode and mac.

apple needs to turn swift developers into 3d developers and that means authoring software based around swift not sending them over to learn c# and use visual studio and then back to xcode just to sign apps. specially if they go out to learn unity and program in c#, it's a lot easier to just distribute for windows instead and forget about xcode completely

apple should leverage swift as a scripting language for the major engines and integrate xcode into them to keep developers invested in mac.

 

[JamesHolden]

sure, today that is. Just look at the past 3 years how the pandemic has changed the "in person" landscape.
and the example of "live concerts" is just one of those "vertical" opportunities, sure, not for everyone but but these vertical opps add up

I think the pandemic just proved how much people want to socialize in person. Now that restrictions are lifted and people are less fearful, in person events are huge. People don't want to sit at home on Zoom unless they have to.

 

[jimbobb24]

I like the vision pro and of my work pays I will get one. Based on comments from people who have used it the sporting events or unique activities that have limited access or too expensive access may be the best use as entertainment.

But I don’t see this as a widespread run away product like an iPad. Maybe a segment size similar to the Mac Pro or even smaller. The market just isn’t that big.

But we will see.

 

[mr.bee]

And when has such a strategy ever happened with Apple products? Never. Why do you think it will happen this time?

Apple is targeting a rather new market with the Visions Pro, the main focus of current devices is still gaming (or some socials). If you look on Apples site it’s about apps, theater, memories, facetime and meetings, digital content consumption and staying connected, in general. Correct me if I’m wrong, there’s no game mentioned. Also I currently don’t know anyone who has purchased a vr set besides for gaming.

also it’s called Visions PRO, there’s not a non Pro version yet. They are waiting till current technology is cheaper.

previous Apple products where released in an existing market one way or another.

or maybe the price remains fixed until inflation catches up which is in about 1,5 years haha

 

[JamesHolden]

Not true. Several times over the years I've posted at least a dozen AR applications. Other people have also posted applications. AR has been in use for awhile.

I'm not saying AR is useless. I just don't see a mass market use case. So far the market supports my position. What is the use case that gets the general public to buy a Vision Pro at its ridiculous price point if other, less expensive products haven't managed to make a dent? I can imagine a lot of niche, speciality, mostly enterprise AR applications too. What I can't imagine is anything that convinces large numbers of average people to get on board.

 

[macfacts]

The first year the product is very expensive only to be purchased by professionals, _influencers_

🤣

 

[Tagbert]

Highlights my biggest complaint with vision pro. Single user design. Heck of an expensive devise for one user. Imagine if your Mac pro was limited to one user. Crazy.

While Mac Pros can have multiple logins, I would not be surprised to find that most Mac Pros are only ever used by a single individual.

 

[jz0309]

I think the pandemic just proved how much people want to socialize in person. Now that restrictions are lifted and people are less fearful, in person events are huge. People don't want to sit at home on Zoom unless they have to.

let's just say that applies for 90% of the people. quick search revealed that are are ~ 260M adults in the US, 10% of that would be 26M - a huge market for VP ...
I'm going back to my "vertical" vs "horizontal" ...

 

[JamesHolden]

Apple is targeting a rather new market with the Visions Pro, the main focus of current devices is still gaming (or some socials). If you look on Apples site it’s about apps, theater, memories, facetime and meetings, digital content consumption and staying connected, in general. Correct me if I’m wrong, there’s no game mentioned. Also I currently don’t know anyone who has purchased a vr set besides for gaming.

also it’s called Visions PRO, there’s not a non Pro version yet. They are waiting till current technology is cheaper.

previous Apple products where released in an existing market one way or another.

or maybe the price remains fixed until inflation catches up which is in about 1,5 years haha

My point is simply that Apple does not introduce a new product and then dramatically drop the price. That never happens. It also doesn't make sense. If Apple could deliver Vision Pro at a more accessible price point, they would! I think you're reading way too much into the name. There might be a Vision SE or whatever at some point, but that is years away.

 

[JamesHolden]

let's just say that applies for 90% of the people. quick search revealed that are are ~ 260M adults in the US, 10% of that would be 26M - a huge market for VP ...
I'm going back to my "vertical" vs "horizontal" ...

And you assume all 26M can afford a Vision Pro? And that they'd even want one in the first place? Lol. More like 1% of that 10% might be interested...so a few hundred thousand units.

 

[deconstruct60]

Am I the only one who thinks 3.5k isn't particularly shocking price tag for a tech gadget these days? In 1990 it might have been a down payment for a house, but today that sum is closer to a month's rent.

A tech gadget that runs out of battery in 2 hours. It is the utility more than the price that folks are having a problem with. Price is an issue for many , but more so what it can be applied to use on that is problematical. Many folks are extremely overly imaginative or under imaginative about what this device will be useful for. It is more like the 70's when in the era of most folks had a question of why they would even need a personal computer. Let alone which flavor or Graphical User Interface vs. command line vs etc.

Some folks are 'off put' because it isn't the ultimate 3D gaming machine. Some folks caught up in spending money on the most ephemeral thing possible. etc. etc.

Plenty of people will buy it if they want to.

The other problem is varying definitions of 'plenty'. The vast builk of Macs ( and iPhones) sold are significantly far below $3,500 . It is a farce to toss out the connotation that $3.5k is something that 10's of millions of folks are going to buy into as being 'common place' . It isn't.

At the same time folks droned on for years about how much of a 'fail' the Apple watch was selling at only 1-4 million a year. Also a pretty farcical statement since those are substantial numbers that aggregate into billions in revenue ( just smaller than Mac or iPhone sales.).

Apple is going to eventually need a lower price point. But the initial wave for a 2 years or so .... 600-1M per year run rate is very viable to bootstrap off of for the long term.

 

[Nozuka]

My point is simply that Apple does not introduce a new product and then dramatically drop the price. That never happens. It also doesn't make sense. If Apple could deliver Vision Pro at a more accessible price point, they would! I think you're reading way too much into the name. There might be a Vision SE or whatever at some point, but that is years away.

They likely won't change the price of gen 1, but will make gen 2 cheaper.

Can't remember all of them, but the Macbook Air started out at about $1700 and later they eventually made and sold one for $999.

First Apple TV started at $299 and later the 2nd and 3rd gen at $99.

I mean rumors say they plan to produce less than 400'000 in 2024.... if they are not ready to produce at scale, they might as well charge as much for them as they can.

With the current hardware cost estimates i've seen (which is around $1600), my guess would be that they will eventually lower the prices to about $2500 once they produce a later version at scale. At which point it will be in reach of a lot more people. And IMHO that would still be the PRO device and they might add a cheaper one for the plebs later down the road

Unless of course there is a surprisingly high demand at those silly prices. Or we get another pandemic