coronavirus.jhu.edu
I feel the same with this matter. I found myself getting angry with him. And it's been going on since the start.
What's impressive is that he still hadn't gotten any additional data. 61K everywhere
It took me 20sec on CDC's website to place it in context. Though I do have a medical degree...So you take 2 outlier countries with HUGE migrant worker populations which represent 1.3% of the COVID cases in world and extrapolate their numbers to the remaining 98.7% of the world, and you are explaining prudent epidemiological methodology to me? Whaaat?
We have no idea how much people flu would kill with the lock down. It could be zero. To deny that lock-down is having a positive effect is ludicrous since the virus spreads through contact/breathing. Just look at what the lock down and distancing did to infection and death rates in New York. Their situation improved drastically after they imposed lock-down, distancing and masks. It's not like they got a vaccine or a magic drug for Covid-19. And then take a look at the states like Florida which did not do it. The conclusions must be obvious to everyone.
Save your letters. As @sofila pointed it out, this guy has been pushing the same argument since March with little to no refinement. We won't convince him of anything. All we can do is make him migrate somewhere else where he isn't yet slapped in the face with data.
If they fail to develop vaccine we will act accordingly. Nobody is going to insist on maintaining infinite lock-down. Right now we are being told that the scientists make a good progress with vaccine development. You are suggesting: let's ignore it, not use lock-downs/masks right now and kill as many people as we can before they develop a vaccine.
Don't worry he is wrong about RNA virus vaccines too. See Measles.
Just give up dude. Everyone resorts to calling you a lemming or idiot if you disagree with the general media message that we need to do more quarantines, deaths divided by confirmed cases for mortality, comparing “record” cases to 2 months ago, and Covid19 is the worst thing we’ve seen for public health since 1918.
I never said the 61,000 was last year and said Covid is higher...it’s the first year of Covid. We will see. The Covid infections are absolutely underreported, so we aren’t finalized on infections. We have a lot more flu data to make our conclusions. The first year of a virus can’t be compared to a random year of another virus and call it apples to apples. If Covid has the staying power of the flu over time, you will be more able to make conclusions you’ve jumped to already...not yet.Except that flu DEATHS aren't higher than COVID. As I point out, per the CDC website, there were between 24,000 and 62,000 flu deaths during the 2019/2020 flu season. You keep says 61,000, but CDC clearly states a (rather wide) range of deaths and explains how their model arrived at those numbers:
Preliminary In-Season 2021-2022 Flu Burden Estimates
CDC's weekly cumulative in-season estimates of flu cases, medical visits, hospitalizations and deaths in the United States.www.cdc.gov
They also state that there were between 39 and 56 million infections.
So, during the 2019/2020 flu season, there were 10-20x the number of infections as COVID so far, resulting in anywhere from 1/2 to 1/6 the number of deaths as COVID (based on the current COVID death toll of 128,000).
Yes, the flu is dangerous, but it's pretty OBVIOUS that COVID is more dangerous given our understanding of the virus at the moment. It's also clear that COVID is much easier to transmit.
Ah yes, more baseless conspiracy theory thinking. The new American way. When *I* don't agree with something it MUST be a conspiracy! Honestly, it's getting hard keeping up with all the nefarious conspiracies at work these days!
I don't disagree that we should be focused on other metrics too, but number of infections and number of deaths are pretty good indicators of how things are going. I realize those numbers don't square with your personal beliefs, but that doesn't make them any less true.
And what is your point? That's still 1/2 the number of COVID deaths we've seen in the past few months. The 2018/2019 flu season only killed 34,000. And the CDC has estimated between 24,000 and 62,000 for the 2019/2020 season. If the 2019/2020 flu death toll is on the lower end of that range, COVID has already killed more people in a few months than the flu has killed in the past three years.
Projecting it makes no sense? Why? Because you don't like the projections? What should we do instead? Project nothing, stop researching, go back to "normal" and ignore the bodied piling up in the corner? You keep trying to liken the severity of COVID to the flu, which clearly is NOT true. Of course we have no idea what the future will bring or what kind of COVID numbers we'll be seeing in two months. But that's no reason to ignore the data we have today. And that data is unmistakable. More people have died from COVID in the past few months than died from the flu in the past few years.
It looks like you just have an issue with everything government related which is strange in democracy. technically you elected their people to serve/help you and they are doing their best. Saying that someone is hidings statistics from you is ridiculous. I am sure you can find the data on how many tests were conducted. The mass media clearly explained that the number of tests has grown significantly which is good. The problem is that even with increased number of tests (meaning more asymptomatic people get tested logically leading to increased number of registered cases) the rate of positive test results started rising too. If the infection would not be increasing, increased number of tests would (statistically) lead to decreasing infection rate.
Yep. All of these spikes came from car crashes, drunk swimming, and whatever other analogies came out on these forums during this pandemic
Dude, I like a lot of what you’re saying and we aren’t far from agreeing. But you can’t just compare 2 numbers like that and end the story. You are the exact reason media can be so dangerous. Anyway, have a nice day.
Great...now we can agree the flu is extremely dangerous and it’s POSSIBLE it’s going to end up worse than Covid19 once the story is written. Of course that doesn’t mean ignore what’s going on now...it’s for perspective. And yes, lots of Covid deaths in its first year. I do think we can discuss how deaths have been reported, who has died, why they died, and how old they were. If half the deaths were seniors over 85 years old, you might want to factor that in to your analysis.
Good...should have done it a while back.Well, the governor of Texas just made wearing masks a requirement. Definitely getting real!
"Wearing a face covering in public is proven to be one of the most effective ways we have to slow the spread of COVID-19,” said Governor Abbott.
