So many conflicting reports about this, I don't know what to believe anymore.
It's always up then down then up. All I can say is where I am, I do see more droids and less apples. Sad really.
Come on folks, there is nothing inconsistent between the two sets of data. The comScore tracks installed phones, while the Kantar data tracks smartphone sales. Now, you might think that if Android is outselling iOS, then Android's marketshare should be
increasing, but that is not necessarily the case. What you haven't accounted for is what phone the new phone is
replacing.
Almost everyone now has a smartphone, so, at least in the US, for every sale there is a phone that is likely decommissioned (recycled, used as an ipod, etc). So, in Nov. 2012, Android had 53.7% of the market, Apple had 35% of the market. Over the ensuing year, many of those people replaced their phones. But only 50% of the new phones were Androids. If the number of people replacing phones is proportional to the installed base, 53.7% of people replacing phones were Android users, but only 50% of new phones were Androids, so the number of installed Android phones will go down. Likewise, if 35% of the people replacing their phones were iPhone users, but 43.5% of new headsets were iPhones, you would expect the insalled base of iPhone users to increase.
As long as the Android percentage of phones coming out of circulation is greater than the Android percentage of phones coming in, the share of installed phones held by Android will drop. And as long as the share of new phones sold by Apple is greater than the iOS share of discarded phones, iPhones will gain market share. Of course, eventually you will reach a steady state, where the number of phones coming out and going in will be the same. But if that state is based on even the most recent Kantar data, the share of iOS phones will continue to rise from 38.9% to 43.5%, while the share of Android phones will continue to drop, from 51.7% to 51.2%.
