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Apple Could Sell 13 Million Televisions According to Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty
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There will be no over-the-air, or cable content because it will be internet based. I'm sure there will be some ports for random connectivity, gaming etc.
Apple also won't care (and neither will the consumer) that facetime is a closed system. Apple dominates the eco system. Any TV buyer will also own an iphone, and ipad, and increasingly a mac. I'm surprised SJ wanted it to be open, maybe he thought it necessary for rapid adoption. He may not have know at the time just how prevalent his products would become? At this point its a selling point for apple, i doubt they'd share it.
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I know Tim Cook says, don't bet against Apple; all the naysayers so far had to eat their words regarding iPod...then iPhone... then iPad so why do I still wonder?...
Rumors of an iTV / Apple TV have circled for at least 5 years... Many more clever than myself have weighed in on Apple's possible Tv User Interface paradigm shift (i.e. siri voice; ms kinnect like, etc...) or industrial design advancement (this one seems even less plausible as can apple really top designs such as Loewe's or Bang & olufsen's beovision on the first go???)
I have 2 x Apple TV (first generation) as I think Apple TV 2 was a step back - aTV 1 lets you watch the shows you've purchased w/o internet access in case of storm/loss of internet or in case your ISP has a cap on your monthly usage... iTunes match also limits how many songs you can keep in the iCloud.
And the real biggie... Pricing. I spend way too much money now buying tv seasons but if they were fairly priced I would spend 5 - 10 x more! why should a tv season be 24.99-46.99?! i think old tv seasons should sell for $12.99 and brand new no more than $22.99! why should digital be the same or more than a dvd or blu-ray set??? there is no overhand in selling a digital season of the big bang theory compared to dvd or blu ray box set! nonsense Apple! as much as i'm a huge Apple customer, i'm slowly retreating toward Amazon's digital sphere... with Amazon prime video and Amazon cloud music player why would one continue to pay ATV's premium.
i own virtually everything apple sells right now (except for apple tv 2) and so i'm open to Apple surprising us all again but i think apple may be better off trying to make iPad/iphone/atv a gaming platform to rival ps3 and xbox than dip their toes in the lcd/plasma tv low margin market.
That's a very sticky area indeed
...Who, at the moment, is going to buy a 5K TV that can't play BluRay/DVDs? Streaming those HD movies & TV shows would require one hell of an internet connection
Not sure about 4K, even if it was feasible to build the panels. Most American's internet bandwidth has a difficult time supporting 720p video let along 4k. Sure you can stream "1080p" off of Netflix Hulu ect but its compressed to hell, just look at it compared to an actual Bluray. For the next few years Apple should probably focus on making high quality 1080p available.
And about apple making televisions themselves, really could be on to something even though there are some obvious challenges. Just look at the market right now, high end Panasonic plasmas just about destroy any lcd panel in picture quality yet the masses flock to cheap led edge lit lcd panels that wash out at an angle, still have slow response times in the panels, and have terrible blacks compared to Plasma when the lights go out. Apple is about quality and what is considered quality in home theater has a much larger range than in say smartphones. Its difficult to imagine Apple compromising on quality, but also un feasible for the majority to be able to afford the "best" tv technology. Would be awesome if they could mass produce a 60" 4k oled for $1500 but like thats going to happen
And about apple making televisions themselves, really could be on to something even though there are some obvious challenges. Just look at the market right now, high end Panasonic plasmas just about destroy any lcd panel in picture quality yet the masses flock to cheap led edge lit lcd panels that wash out at an angle, still have slow response times in the panels, and have terrible blacks compared to Plasma when the lights go out. Apple is about quality and what is considered quality in home theater has a much larger range than in say smartphones. Its difficult to imagine Apple compromising on quality, but also un feasible for the majority to be able to afford the "best" tv technology. Would be awesome if they could mass produce a 60" 4k oled for $1500 but like thats going to happen
Is it really necessary for Apple to come to market with the entire TV? Personally, I see no need for them to make the TV too, it's merely a display and today's flat screens have exceptional picture quality.
I don't see the display as being the problem. The problem is the crappy user experience. I think that it makes more sense to simply make a very clean and well designed front-end and they don't need to make the entire TV to do that.
Plus many people already have very nice flat screen TVs now. I am an Apple guy, but I won't replace my nearly new 55 inch LG with their TV. I'd love a separate Apple designed device that replaces my TV's front end though. I'd pay for that, but why replace a perfectly excellent display?
Just my opinion. Perhaps it'll become clear if and when they do what they're going to do.
I don't see the display as being the problem. The problem is the crappy user experience. I think that it makes more sense to simply make a very clean and well designed front-end and they don't need to make the entire TV to do that.
Plus many people already have very nice flat screen TVs now. I am an Apple guy, but I won't replace my nearly new 55 inch LG with their TV. I'd love a separate Apple designed device that replaces my TV's front end though. I'd pay for that, but why replace a perfectly excellent display?
Just my opinion. Perhaps it'll become clear if and when they do what they're going to do.
I just took a statistics class and was just taught that a sample size of 30 people can estimate what up to 30 million people will do. Since the population of America is about 300 million I guess an acceptable (scientific) sample size is anything above 300 people.
Edit: Sorry I meant to quote the person you quoted.
I think we can all assume that it'll rock the tv world.
It will be top quality, classy, clean. and they will manage to deliver content in a simple, unified way that not only mom and dad could use, but could even install.. No set top boxes. No advertisements. Iphone as remote
All at prices that seem unreasonable until you find out that it makes you enjoy your high system instead of fight with it.
For the same reason "frugal" people spend $1400 per year on a cell phone they didn't think they needed 5 years ago, people will find new value in TVs and spend appropriately.
Now lets be logical: the Cinema Display is 1000 at 27". So we can only guess that a TV at 40+ will be at least $1500. I'm guessing two sizes, same features, at a $700 premium for the bigger set. a 32" and 46".
All the naysayers are the same people that said tablet PCs didn't work so iPad won't either before they even saw what the iPad could do. Once they saw the iPad then everyone got it.
Its going to be the same for the Apple iTV. Everyone is just guessing and can't comprehend what it could offer that's better than what they have now, but that's the point. You don't even know you want it but once you have it you can't imagine ever living without it.
The iTV is going to be more than just a beautiful high resolution TV. It may not be even more than 1080p when launched, disappointing some folks here, but it's not going to matter. Plus Apple needs to save some features like 4K to introduce in a later model, probably iTV 3.
The iTV will also be more than just a TV with built-in ROKU or Apple TV. It will have those functions of course but it will be more than that.
The iTV will also have FaceTime but it will be revolutionary. How? You'll start seeing it incorporated into a lot of different TV shows, some live even, where instead of getting your tweet mentioned they'll actually pull your FaceTime feed up and put you in the show! How's that for crazy?
Plus remember Tim Cook said its going to be like the Jetsons. People assume this just means the implementation of FaceTime, but that's not it.
Apple is going to go much further, much further than any of you can imagine. I'm going to reveal it here in the next paragraph. Take a deep breath. Prepare for your mind to be blown.
The Apple iTV is not just a TV, it's also an oven. That's right. The TV will be on the outside but then when you pull it back it's actually a door to the oven.
What's so special about this oven? Well for one it has Siri. That's right. You can talk to your iTV oven. But why would you want to talk to your oven?
How about this?
You - "Siri, tonight for dinner I want tuna casserole. I have some friends over so make enough for 6 people. Belinda is allergic to nuts so make sure there are no nut products in the dish. We'll eat at 7pm and we want to watch the pilot episode of 'Sex In The City' and then the series finale of 'Lost'. Then for dessert we want to eat apple pie topped with mini-chocolate brownies. Remember no nuts."
Siri - "Yes ma'am, tuna casserole to be served at 7pm while showing Season 1 Episode 1 of 'Sex In The City' followed by Season 6 Episode 17 and 18 of 'Lost'. Any ingredients with traces of nuts will be removed. What time should I served dessert Ma'am?"
How's that for revolutionary? People have been talking about Apple needing another game changer to keep its stock from crashing. Well this is it.
Before you kids get carried away this isn't some magic device. The iTV can't just make anything you imagine for dinner. It won't create fondue out of thin air or roasted dodo bird.
Like on the Jetsons there is a limited menu of things it can create.
Though like downloading apps, you can download recipes and new menu items all the time. The possibilities for what it could do really would be almost limitless, just depending on the creativity of the recipe builders.
Of course, it will need to be stocked up with the raw materials. Tuna, egg noodles, cream of mushroom soup and breadcrumbs for your tuna casserole. But the iTV won't work with just raw ingredients you buy at the supermarket.
No, recipes ingredients will be pre-packaged to be compatible on Apple iTV and in the Apple ecosystem. You won't be able to use Android foodstuffs with your Apple iTV once Google makes their own iTV copy a few years later.
Its going to be the same for the Apple iTV. Everyone is just guessing and can't comprehend what it could offer that's better than what they have now, but that's the point. You don't even know you want it but once you have it you can't imagine ever living without it.
The iTV is going to be more than just a beautiful high resolution TV. It may not be even more than 1080p when launched, disappointing some folks here, but it's not going to matter. Plus Apple needs to save some features like 4K to introduce in a later model, probably iTV 3.
The iTV will also be more than just a TV with built-in ROKU or Apple TV. It will have those functions of course but it will be more than that.
The iTV will also have FaceTime but it will be revolutionary. How? You'll start seeing it incorporated into a lot of different TV shows, some live even, where instead of getting your tweet mentioned they'll actually pull your FaceTime feed up and put you in the show! How's that for crazy?
Plus remember Tim Cook said its going to be like the Jetsons. People assume this just means the implementation of FaceTime, but that's not it.
Apple is going to go much further, much further than any of you can imagine. I'm going to reveal it here in the next paragraph. Take a deep breath. Prepare for your mind to be blown.
The Apple iTV is not just a TV, it's also an oven. That's right. The TV will be on the outside but then when you pull it back it's actually a door to the oven.
What's so special about this oven? Well for one it has Siri. That's right. You can talk to your iTV oven. But why would you want to talk to your oven?
How about this?
You - "Siri, tonight for dinner I want tuna casserole. I have some friends over so make enough for 6 people. Belinda is allergic to nuts so make sure there are no nut products in the dish. We'll eat at 7pm and we want to watch the pilot episode of 'Sex In The City' and then the series finale of 'Lost'. Then for dessert we want to eat apple pie topped with mini-chocolate brownies. Remember no nuts."
Siri - "Yes ma'am, tuna casserole to be served at 7pm while showing Season 1 Episode 1 of 'Sex In The City' followed by Season 6 Episode 17 and 18 of 'Lost'. Any ingredients with traces of nuts will be removed. What time should I served dessert Ma'am?"
How's that for revolutionary? People have been talking about Apple needing another game changer to keep its stock from crashing. Well this is it.
Before you kids get carried away this isn't some magic device. The iTV can't just make anything you imagine for dinner. It won't create fondue out of thin air or roasted dodo bird.
Like on the Jetsons there is a limited menu of things it can create.
Though like downloading apps, you can download recipes and new menu items all the time. The possibilities for what it could do really would be almost limitless, just depending on the creativity of the recipe builders.
Of course, it will need to be stocked up with the raw materials. Tuna, egg noodles, cream of mushroom soup and breadcrumbs for your tuna casserole. But the iTV won't work with just raw ingredients you buy at the supermarket.
No, recipes ingredients will be pre-packaged to be compatible on Apple iTV and in the Apple ecosystem. You won't be able to use Android foodstuffs with your Apple iTV once Google makes their own iTV copy a few years later.
Lots of people talking about the sample size in this thread don't know math.
How many times do you need to flip a coin to get an accurate example of the odds being 50/50???
20? 50? 100?? 1000??
The more you flip the coin the closer to 50/50 you'll get, but you quickly reach the point of diminishing returns. It's a waste of time to flip a coin 100 times to prove the odds are 50/50.
When respondents have 2 choices the margin of error is roughly 1/square root of number of respondents.
So with 1,568 respondents the margin of error would be 2.53%
U.S. Pop: 311,591,917
40% of that is 124,636,766.8
A survey with 124,636,766.8 respondents would have a margin of error of 0.008%
So really the difference between surveying 1,568 and 40% of the US population probably isn't worth the trouble of surveying an extra 124.5 million people.
It gets more complicated when you add a 3rd option to the survey. But as you can see, surveying 1500 people is actually quite accurate, despite what most folks tend to think. It's statistics.
How did you get Netflix to work? Silverlight isn't available on Linux and I didn't know there was a workaround. Also, the AirPlay built in to XBMC doesn't seem to mirror the screen from a MacBook or iPad, but I would love to be told that I'm wrong.
You've thought all this through very well, it appears. I personally don't believe the Television set itself, is going to materialize, but my guess is as good as yours.
Cable companies are, for the most part, not content creators, but content distributors -middle men- effectively.
Their greed will hopefully make that happen, sooner or later.
I too don't want a whole new TV; I'm perfectly happy with the one I've got.
It is user experience and reasonably priced content, most people are after.
Cable Companies are not willingly going to give up their revenue streams, unless some revolutionary concept came along, that would alter the entire marketplace, and that would either replace them, or be financially beneficial to them in the long term. Another possibility would be, content creators uploading their shows directly to satellite, and dishes replacing our cable modems, for both broadband internet and cable tv.
This would open the door for companies like APPLE to come in with their own customized or a-la-carte content. True, you're replacing one middleman with another middleman, but it would give APPLE the opportunity to come up with this awesome user interface, that we're all holding our breath for. APPLE is smart enough to realize that in order for this to be successful, it: a-Has to be an awesome overall viewing experience, and b-Shouldn't cost more, than what the average person is paying now.
This would also more than likely, be much cheaper than the billions, the cable cos spend on cabling infrastructure, as well as maintenance and upgrading thereof. The savings of having eliminated those cable cos/middlemen, could make a cheaper alternative for consumers a reality, while preserving, if not even increasing, profit, for the creators of worthwhile content.
No predictions here either. We all like to speculate about what the possibilities are, and what we'd like to see, but in the end we just have to wait and see if APPLE can pull-off yet another industry game-changer. I too am hopeful, and cautiously optimistic that they may have an ace up their sleeve, somewhere down the line. Only time will tell.
If you agree with what he is saying (I'm referring to his statement saying that when he turns on his TV it's like going 20-30 years back in time) can you please explain to me precisely what is so old-school and so old about current TV and how Apple or any other company can change this?
Beautiful is relative, I guess.
It is difficult to imagine connecting all your devices wirelessly to a TV. You would have to use many sets of powerful transmitters/receivers to accomplish this and achieve reliable bandwidth comparable with HDMI cables. Wired connections in this case are a lot more feasible.
How does this differ from what we have now?
I guess that would only be useful for pictures, iClouds capacity isn't that much...
I can use Skype on my TV just fine and it's dead easy to set up (you just... log in).
We do have that already. For instance, the BBC iPlayer has great UI.
What you need instead (and has been implemented already) is using your smartphone as a remote - it is already personal, and you don't need any silly fingerprint sensing business. And you have a second screen experience.
This is extremely easy to achieve and has already been available for a long time.
I think you don't realise how much of this is available already.
Unless an apple branded TV is significantly value adds to a conventional TV, I do not foresee myself buying one when it is released. I really cannot imagine what apple can come up with. But I trust they can and will surprise me in ways that I cannot imagine.
You should re-take your statistics class.
The size of the population doesn't make any difference (except the obvious one that a 1% error for 30 million people is 300,000, while a 1% error for 300 million people is 3 million).
You can use any sample size you want including a sample size of one. Depending on your results and the sample size you can then calculate error bounds. The larger the sample size, the lower the error bounds. With a sample size of one, the error bounds are just very large.
(An example of valid sample size one: You claim that 99.99% of people agree with X. If I ask one random person, and that person disagrees with X, then your claim is very likely wrong, because the chances of that one random person disagreeing if 99.99% agree is only one in ten thousand. On the other hand asking 1000 people and they all agree with X still leaves plenty of room for error).
I'm not particularly interested in buying an Apple television because it would be so limiting. An apple set-top box with cable integration would be much more compelling. The biggest stumbling block I see to that is itunes competing directly with On-Demand services that the cable companies offer.
I don't think you get how TV works. The truth is, you pay for the 20-30 channels that everyone watches, and then the other channels get to come along for the ride.
If you think you're going to get just ESPN, FX, Comedy, Nick, TNT, etc. for a significant discount over the entire package, you're being naive.
I assume that 10% includes all of The 1%; but are any of the 46% part of The 47%? Because, if so, that says someting about priorities in today's society.