Apple Executives Optimistic About Future of iOS, Expect Tablet Market to Surpass PCs

[firewood]

Surpass versus Replace!

The iPad or any tablet for that matter will never replace my laptop.

The iPad can surpass Macs or PCs in total use and sales without replacing them.

The majority of Mac/PC purchasers don't need what a PC can offer beyond a tablet. More than half of all laptop and desktop PC buyers, both consumer and business, use no significant functionality on their PC that can't be done on a tablet (plus maybe accessories, such as a Bluetooth keyboard). Tons of home users only do email+web. Tons of business PCs only run point-of-sale or data entry apps, or web apps, or remote desktop, or presentations, stuff which can all be done with an iPad.

The real work will be done in the server closet or the cloud, not on a PC. Even power users may not use the full functionality of a Mac or PC most of the time. An iPad can replace that 2nd or 3rd laptop that's used for email in the living room, while the main machine is doing a movie render in the office.

So desktop and laptop PCs could easily fall to 10% of the market without completely being replaced, with the other 90% of personal computing purchases going to smartphones and tablets.

That would be a surpassing, not a replacement, just like PCs surpassed mainframes and minicomputers in the market. But IBM still sells mainframes to power user enterprises who need them, so mainframes haven't been completely replaced.

 

[2499723]

Speaking of fragmentation of the ecosystem, didn't Apple say something similar about Windows in the early 90s? That fragmentation is not something to be scoffed at in all circumstances. The closed environment is pretty cool, don't get me wrong, but it can backfire as Apple should be all too keenly aware.

 

[*LTD*]

The iPad can surpass Macs or PCs in total use and sales without replacing them.

The majority of Mac/PC purchasers don't need what a PC can offer beyond a tablet. More than half of all laptop and desktop PC buyers, both consumer and business, use no significant functionality on their PC that can't be done on a tablet (plus maybe accessories, such as a Bluetooth keyboard). Tons of home users only do email+web. Tons of business PCs only run point-of-sale or data entry apps, or web apps, or remote desktop, or presentations, stuff which can all be done with an iPad.

The real work will be done in the server closet or the cloud, not on a PC. Even power users may not use the full functionality of a Mac or PC most of the time. An iPad can replace that 2nd or 3rd laptop that's used for email in the living room, while the main machine is doing a movie render in the office.

So desktop and laptop PCs could easily fall to 10% of the market without completely being replaced, with the other 90% of personal computing purchases going to smartphones and tablets.

That would be a surpassing, not a replacement, just like PCs surpassed mainframes and minicomputers in the market. But IBM still sells mainframes to power user enterprises who need them, so mainframes haven't been completely replaced.

This is a sensible perspective. It acknowledges the continued utility of the classic PC model (which even now is moving toward tablet-like physical proportions) while also acknowledging the sea-change we're seeing in this Post-PC era.

 

[kas23]

"For one, Cook said, "he sees no reason why the tablet market shouldn't eclipse the PC market over the next several years," according to Shope's note."

Perhaps Cook doesn't own an iPad or his is jail broken. You need a regular computer to sync it to get the most function out of your tablet.

 

[scottsjack]

One of the best things Apple did with the iPad is to not put the full-blown OS on it the way Microsoft is about to do in a horrible mistake that they will regret. A few geeks might want the full OS, but most people will not, and they should not. A lot of an OS deals with functionality and input/output that has no bearing on a tablet. A post-PC device needs a post-PC OS.

However, I see a lot of resistance in this thread to tablets as the dominant form. OK, I can wait. I saw the same sort of resistance to PCs when they first showed up. By the tiime most of you change your mind, you won't even remember having resisted in the first place. It will just seem like the most natural thing in the world to pick up an iPad 7 or whatever at it is at the time.

Wrong. For people who want a FaceBook or Google Mail toy you are right. But if one wants real computing it's going to take a real operating system.

Consider that the iPad 2 is more powerful than my last Dell laptop. Photoshop CS2 on that old Dell was a little slow. XP Pro wanted more than a weak Pentium M and 1GB RAM but it did work.

The first open 64-bit full-OS table gets my business. I would prefer OS X but Windows 7 will work just fine. Either way I can use Adobe's software. I figure I'll have one within a couple of years.

 

[bushido]

isnt it ironic how u cant use a iPad without a computer tho?

 

[Mattie Num Nums]

Still clueless. The fact that you have no use for it (your copr... wowo i must be impressed huh) doesn't make the device obsolete/useless/toy to the rest of the world.

Clueless yet I am the one getting paid to make those decisions. Bottom line is this. The iPad is a great idea that is handcuffed. The product we are using is going to take the cuffs off and give our users the ability to use a file share. Meaning that they can actually save stuff somewhere!

 

[maclaptop]

There is a significant difference between work and personal usage. In addition, there is a huge difference between market share and the massive installed base of Windows computers, workstations, servers and such in the corporate space.

It is for this reason alone it will be years before we see just how this plays out.

Just because we have one of those typical "Steve Says" scenario's is of little consequence.

For there are millions of other "Steve's" out there that do the work to put great science to work. To design and test products of all types. They are using PC's. The get home from work and have families and other things to do, that make huge demands on their time. Not everyone has the leisure time to sit around and play on a tablet.

For the ones that do, they still don't have huge blocks of time, therefore the iPad appeals, as one can pick it up and surf, check ones mail, and go about life. But replace the computer? Not for some time.

So fans of Apple will, as they are now, be the first to salute the commander and buy iPads. Push them in the face of their employers, and drive them into the workplace. But that will be on a very limited basis, despite all the buzz.

Bloggers and journalists must have news to write about and the tablet buzz is one of their current cash cows. At the present it just happens to be an iPad because in my opinion they are the best. Yet that said, anything can happen and if the big players in the PC and Android space get really serious, we may see a shift in the balance of tablets.

When I say shift, I am not suggesting they are going to sell as many as Apple, but rather that they may finally get their products up to the standard that the public expects and sell a higher volume than is expected at the present.

As I see it, while Apple may be hyper focused on centering their products on a mobile OS, they are the only ones doing that presently. With the news of an ARM powered laptop from Apple, we all know that will be a very slow and limited performer.

The others such as Lenovo, have a very high demand (I waited over six weeks for my latest workstation W510) which shows no sign of slowing. So while the overall PC sales may be slowing the premier builders like Lenovo are doing well. Remember no graph is linear so when there are ups and downs for a company like Lenovo whose core business is corporate, these cycles are completely normal. Corporations simply don't replace their computers as fast as consumers.

One thing is for sure, it will be interesting to watch.

 

[NebulaClash]

Wrong. For people who want a FaceBook or Google Mail toy you are right. But if one wants real computing it's going to take a real operating system.

iPad is a real computer, but it has a real OS designed for a tablet. What you are talking about is shoehorning yesterday's technology into today's tech just so that you can continue to perform yesterday's tasks yesterday's way.

Fortunately Apple is not catering to those who are backward looking. Watch and see how iOS develops and the software written specifically for it. It will blow away what you are imagining.

 

[firewood]

You need a regular computer to sync it to get the most function out of your tablet.

Just like most Macs require a connection to an Apple server to do system and app updates?

And a person or business can currently use one Mac to sync a pile of iPads and iPhones, easily allowing these iDevices to far surpass the Macs in total usage in a home or business.

 

[NebulaClash]

And remember, the post-PC era never means that PCs will die. We live in a post-Mainframe era, but companies still buy mainframes if they need one.

So don't think that just because tablets are going to someday outsell PCs that PCs will go away. And remember who is posting in these sorts of threads: the very technically literate who are most likely to need PCs.

You will continue to buy PCs to do whatever you need PCs for. But more tablets will be sold because the number of people who do not need PCs is quite a bit greater than the number of people who do need them.

 

[LoganT]

I like how no one can imagine how an iPad could be doing every thing your current computer does and more in just a few years.

 

[Mattie Num Nums]

And remember, the post-PC era never means that PCs will die. We live in a post-Mainframe era, but companies still buy mainframes if they need one.

So don't think that just because tablets are going to someday outsell PCs that PCs will go away. And remember who is posting in these sorts of threads: the very technically literate who are most likely to need PCs.

You will continue to buy PCs to do whatever you need PCs for. But more tablets will be sold because the number of people who do not need PCs is quite a bit greater than the number of people who do need them.

The only issue I have with the iPad is storage. I don't like not knowing or having the ability to really tell my stuff where to go. mobilEcho is really going to change the game for corp. iPad users and hopefully help put more iPads in the environment. I'm all for it. The more Macs the safer my job is however, I refuse to blindly put Macs in the environment just to do so.

 

[ericinboston]

Define how tablets will eclipse traditional pc sales...units sold? average price per unit? # of units per houshold?

Although tablets (and their definitely great future) will become very common if the price is right, tablets are still not (and likely never will be) a replacement for a traditional pc...tablets will always lag in performance, storage, i/o ports, and their lack of a real keyboard (it takes me 10 times longer to write an email on my iPad than on any pc/laptop I use...imagine how this would affect me in actually writing something longer than 4 paragraphs).

Tablets will be around for quite a long time I believe...but likely nothing will replace the flexibility and price of a traditional pc. Well, not sure about those $1200+ iMacs when billions of non-Apple pcs cost between $550 and $850 for a great-to-fantastic pc. But that's another topic...I'm just bringing up the cost of said hardware (keyboards, mice, monitor, i/o ports, drives, etc) since we are talking about pcs and the "price" category sure is a factor in tablets vs. pcs.

 

[SHirsch999]

I can easily see this happen in the next few years. I think some of you are missing the point. They did not say it would replace the PC. I can easily and very realistically see in the next few years that the average household will have 1 main computer, laptop or desktop, and a separate tablet-like device for each person in the house. In my family we have 2 adults and 2 kids. The kids right now are too young for their own devices, but I can see us moving from the 2 PCs we currently have (no tablets or smartphones yet) to 1 PC and at least 2-3 tablet-like devices linked back to the PC. I think this is what they mean, and this is how the tablet market will overtake the PC market. You also cannot rule out the possibility of the tablet becoming more laptop-like as time goes by.

 

[Laird Knox]

It's not that I am not creative, I found the device seriously lack integration. For an example, If I create a song in Garageband for the iPad to use in iMovie for the iPad, I cannot with out having to first sync the iPad to the desktop, then selected the song and re-sync for its use in the iMovie for the iPad.

I am sure as IOS matures integration between apps will be better, using some common space.

Also I found that I could not upload photos to MobileMe in a group, but had to do it one at a time. I do not want to use flickr etc etc, seeing I have MobileMe.

I sold my iPad, got a MBA 11, it really just a few $300 more than a 64B wifi iPad, but has more memory, fast processor, capable of doing so much more. However, it does not have the cool form factor of the iPad, nor the battery life.

I found the iPad at it's current state not suitable for my needs, but in the future I will end up purchasing another iPad, but only when it suites my needs.

That is interesting as I find the integration between the iPad, iPhone, Apple TV, Mac and PC very promising. While I agree the integration isn't mature in any sense I do like where it is heading.

I find the iPad is now always by my side where I wouldn't even consider a laptop. Even when I'm on two wheels the iPad is tucked inside my jacket. My next project is integrating 4G service into my motorcycle.

Sure will be fun to look back at the 10th anniversary and see how the market developed.

 

[NebulaClash]

I can easily see this happen in the next few years. I think some of you are missing the point. They did not say it would replace the PC. I can easily and very realistically see in the next few years that the average household will have 1 main computer, laptop or desktop, and a separate tablet-like device for each person in the house. In my family we have 2 adults and 2 kids. The kids right now are too young for their own devices, but I can see us moving from the 2 PCs we currently have (no tablets or smartphones yet) to 1 PC and at least 2-3 tablet-like devices linked back to the PC. I think this is what they mean, and this is how the tablet market will overtake the PC market. You also cannot rule out the possibility of the tablet becoming more laptop-like as time goes by.

Quite right. The tablet market will be bigger than the PC market, but the PC market will still exist.

 

[ericinboston]

I like how no one can imagine how an iPad could be doing every thing your current computer does and more in just a few years.

Huh? So Apple is trying to create a $500-$800 device that will kill it's $1200-$2500 computer lineup?



The iPad is coming up on version 3 and here are a bunch of things is STILL cannot do (no matter what the excuse):

-can't print except to 6 select printers out of literally thousands of still-supported-models around the globe

-USB ports for attaching devices or expanding storage are non-existent

-can't store any files on my iPad other than mp3s/photos/videos...what about the PDFs I get in email often...or the MS Office docs I get?

-can't sync to iTunes wirelessly (a complete joke)

-can't sync to iPhoto

-sealed shut preventing me from upgrading ANYTHING

-virtual keyboard stinks for writing anything longer than a 3 paragraph email

-RELIES on a computer to begin with...from the instant you first attempt to power it on it DEMANDS to be connected to a computer. go figure.

-processing power is far lower than any traditional pc/laptop...however, not everyone needs the horsepower especially since tablets are not really modeled to be a pc REPLACEMENT

-non-replaceable battery

-cannot charge via USB cable unlike millions of other USB devices

-forced to install only Apple-approved software...greatly limits apps for us techies that want some deeper networking apps...and not a fan of Big Brother approving/banning what I can/cannot install on my device.

-sometimes forces us to install apps via computer/USB cable. lovely.

-support Flash? Nope.






Don't get me wrong...I like the iPad (I still think it is expensive)...but it has a long way to go to being as flexible as a traditional pc as you infer with your comment. The iPad is a nice emailer/web surfer/iPod player/picture slideshow thingy/play some fairly decent games for $5 type of device. If that's all you do with your pc these days (and a fairly decent percentage of folks do) then great. But for a lot of us who use pcs for all the above AS WELL AS more advanced items, iPad has a ways to go.

I look forward to see what Apple has in store for 3.0

 

[scottsjack]

I like how no one can imagine how an iPad could be doing every thing your current computer does and more in just a few years.

Will it really be considered an iPad then?

 

[nofear1az]

way too optimistic. Tablets will never surpass PCs, not even after 20 years if tablet will even exist. Tablets are convenient and fun on the go or in bed, but have people actually use their tablets when their pc is right in front of them?

This is the same argument like people thinking that hybrids will surpass normal non-hybrids. Not gonna happen.

well, I have a MacBook Air and an iPad and I can honestly say I use my iPad way more than my MBAir. I always choose to use my iPad over any computer just because it's so much lighter and easier to use around the couch, at the dinner table, in bed, or at one of my favorite food places. It's the shear convenience of it over a bulky computer and the MBAir isn't bulky by any means.

Only time I choose my MBAir or a real computer over the iPad is if I need to work on something that requires heavier use.

the iPad or tablet is really transforming in the way I do things now... I believe it is hear to stay whether you like it or not. I also believe a lot more desktops will utilize the screen as a touch interface not to replace the keyboard/mouse but rather to use it in addition to for mostly less than that 40% of time such as touching your photos. I believe as time goes by more and more applications will be born and grow into using the touch interface more; however, keyboard at the least will be here to stay.

 

[KnightWRX]

That is interesting as I find the integration between the iPad, iPhone, Apple TV, Mac and PC very promising.

He's talking about the integration between the various apps. You can't have 2 or 3 or more apps interacting with each others content to form a whole.

You didn't even address his GarageBand to iMovie example. That's a serious problem in iOS and relegates it to pretty much consumer status only. I can't say created graphics in a graphics app and then plop them into a word processing app to ad to my documents or into a presentation app for my presentation.

 

[NickFalk]

Welcome to the real world. I run a corp. infrastructure. When I have CEO's who want to save stuff and access stuff securely and remotely on their iPads what am I suppose to say... put it on Dropbox. Yeah right.

Nope, you'll pay the pocket change needed to be part of the iOS Developer Enterprise Program. I'm sure you have some people in your organization actually knowing how to code? Then make them work for a living and develop the necessary hook-ups to your existing infrastructure.

Even if this is not the solution you envision for your corporation it is probably something you should investigate...

 

[KnightWRX]

Nope, you'll pay the pocket change needed to be part of the iOS Developer Enterprise Program. I'm sure you have some people in your organization actually knowing how to code? Then make them work for a living and develop the necessary hook-ups to your existing infrastructure.

Even if this is not the solution you envision for your corporation it is probably something you should investigate...

The problem with in-house code is that it is often times more expensive to maintain and support and prevents future upgrades without significant investment in changing said code, especially if your main mission is not IT.

I work in IT for an enterprise class business that has a non-IT mission as its main goal. We used to do a lot of in-house code and stuff and those systems have proven to be quite the headaches. We're now moving to mostly vendor provided code. They are in the business of maintaining, updating and supporting software, we aren't.

 

[cvaldes]

For me personally, A tablet would not replace my laptop.

And if I were to even try, I would not consider my iPad as a contender, I'd go with one of the upcoming Quad-core Windows 8 Tablets, namely because it has a full OS on it.

For a few, a tablet will replace their only PC.

For many, the tablet will probably replace a second, third, or even fourth PC.

Your individual use case is irrelevant. What is important is the overall marketplace. That's what these executives are talking about, the way the industry is trending, not what any given person will do.

 

[Hueyfreeman]

As far as real functionality as a pc replacement iOS is not even close. Android however is, yes I know every android nay-sayer is going to vote this down and add coments like "its not polished" "the apps suck" and "fragmented". Well this post is about the things it offers that ios does not. It offers a file system to store files on board the tablet that all apps have access to. It does not require a computer to sync with. And some manufacturers have even came up with great ways to get a hard keyboard integrated into the tablet. If you want to argue tgis post argue that these things are not needed rather then posting that android sucks.