Apple Expected to Report Highest Revenue in Single Quarter in Company's History

[Keirasplace]

Of course what goes up must come down, but maybe not in your timetable. Hopefully Apple hits a trillion valuation before it slides into oblivion.

Apple didn’t really disrupt blackberry as much as blackberry made many fateful decisions, because their management was short-sided.

obviously we don’t and can’t predict the mindset of a consumer. But that cool disruptive phone crafted by a startup could just as easy fade into oblivion.

Tim has not turned iphone into a fashion Company that’s a popular meme. He’s actually giving consumers more choice, which is why Apple has been in a roll recently(IMO).

Many of the companies who got to the top still exist and are still pretty big, arguably IBM, which in today's money has hit a trillion, is still a triving concern.

As for blackberry, it was never in the same league as Apple is now. Apple's Iphone basically exploded the size of the previous smart phone segment.

What protects Apple is not selling one product, but selling but an experience, a brand.

Yeah, a company could have cool stuff, but they're not Apple. If just having cool tech would be enough, they'd be 100 Apple. You need more than that to make a successful company.

 

[Freida]

That's not for you to make a definitive statement telling someone what is not justified based off what somebody else find value in over your own opinion. The User will make the justification in what they find value in, your opinion on the matter is not a one-size-fits-all for everybody else's preferences.



Again, you're making more assertions based on your own disapproval on where the iPhone is today from where it was seven years ago. You're saying touch ID is better, others may disagree with you saying Face ID is better. It's All one subjective stance. But you can't force your narrative on someone else because you don't agree with the price point and what the iPhone offers today.

Also, you interjected OLED being minimal, I never mentioned the display at all. And then you go on to assert that 3D Touch is a "Gimmick". There Again, another assertion that you're saying something that you don't agree with what others might find useful. That doesn't mean that's not an advancement in technology, when in fact it is.

What about augmented reality? Is that something that's not considered an advancement and where it's going to eventually lead to beyond its infancy?



And this is exactly what I have been saying along in this discussion, you want to remain in the times where the iPhone 4 was and you don't like or approve of where the iPhone is today. But that doesn't mean that technology has not advanced because you don't agree with the price point, "Gimmicks", or form factor. You're choosing an iPhone preferences based on your opinion, not on fact.

I think you are taking it to and extreme and in some ways doing the same as I was. We can both dissect each others posts but essentially what you are saying makes sense and what I say makes sense too.

We are on tech forums so of course we have people more tech savvy here and use technology more than lets say our parents. Majority will not use all the features (I'm sure we can agree on that). So the features that most of us really notice is quality of photos and probably speed.
However, speed of iPhone 8 vs 7 is not really noticeable to most people. People here will probably notice but average joe won't most likely.
OLED, 3D touch etc. are not massive features. They are neat (OLED is cool but not more than that) but not groundbreaking.
You mentioned AR? Well, here is a perfect spot where it doesn't really matter now. By the time that average joe appreciates it we will be on iPhone 13 or so.

Regardless, we both make sense. For you, the cost&features is justified, for me and probably a lot of people its not.
And my iPhone 4 reference wasn't because I wanted to be stuck with 2010. It was that I preferred the price/features ratio much more. In fact, iPhone X is perfect example. Apple priced a lot of people out and I assume that even Apple knows it.
So, there is obviously 2 sides of the coin. You represent one and I do the other. As my mum always says - "I don't crap money" so I have to always go with the value I get for the cost and unfortunately Apple does not provide the value to ME.
Anyway, lets be both cool. We are both correct here and we will both find support for our stance. Lets just leave it there, ok? ;-)

 

[Baymowe335]

The thing is, when you're talking about innovative in a new model, you look at what they model brought us, not every single model up to it.

Every single thing on your list except wireless charging was available on the 2016 models so the iPhone X doesn't get credit for them. Last year's model with a slightly faster CPU and Wireless charging hardly matches the innovating the iPhone 4 brought.

By your logic, every single product every made is more innovative than every single product made before it.

By your logic, a 2017 Chevy Aveo is more innovative than the Model T ford. It has seat belts, air bags, onStar, fuel injectors, computerized sensors and actuators. A starter motor, power steering, air conditioning....etc. That's BS, you look at the innovation the new model brings, not everything that occurred between the models.
[doublepost=1517417561][/doublepost]

That is exactly my point. To sustain Apple's stock prices, a huge percentage of the industrialized world has to but a new iPhone every 2 years. With 1.2 Billion phones out there and the tech mature enough that there's not very much difference from model to model anymore, the current rate is simply not sustainable. So many people will not have a reason to keep buying a phone every 2 years. And that assumes nobody comes along to disrupt Apple like Apple did to Blackberry.

And making it worse is Timmy's focus on making the iPhone a fashion brand. It's brought higher profits now, but fashions are fickle. A small screwup from Apple that makes the iPhone less "cool" will hurt them much worse now.

You don't understand the numbers.

1) Every country is becoming more and more industrialized every day. The world is moving forward.
2) Apple currently sells a little more than 200M iPhones annually. This means with a 1.2M base, each group only has to update once every 5 years and they can still grow sales.
3) They are always acquiring new customers and have insanely high retention.
4) You realize 'iPhone" is still the MOST popular single phone? Samsung has so many models. Samsung doesn't sell nearly has many "Galaxy" phones as iPhones. iPhone is the most popular single phone in the world. Yes, there are some different models, but it's all under Apple's high margin umbrella. Samsung sells many phones at 0 margin.
[doublepost=1517421378][/doublepost]

How are you sure it will be fact tomorrow? You do realize that an increase in price will result in an increase in revenue if they sold the same amount of phones as last year right?

So no it is not a fact that they sold more iPhone just because they may have a higher revenue in this qtr.

Where did analyst state how many iPhones they think got sold in the qtr?

Would I bet against them beating their qtr sales record? No. But I don't think they did.

Because I follow the stock much closer than you. If they sell under 79M phones, it will be a pretty big miss and the stock will decline significantly. Even selling 80-81M phones will not be considered very strong.

Many analysts have predictions for iPhone sales and consensus is for a record, easily. Since you don't follow the company as closely as I do, you don't understand where I'm getting my numbers. That's fine, but don't act like you know what you're talking about. You really have no idea other than how you feel.

I'm also not talking about revenue. I totally understand ASP, which will increase significantly due to the X. We are looking for $750 ASP or higher. UNIT sales need to be above 80M (a record) for Apple to be viewed as successful and everyone modeled they will do it.

Guidance alone essentially telegraphed 80M+ iPhone sales.

 

[ackmondual]

What good does it do for a company to make more and more money when it doesn't release the products you want? At least, I keep hearing people want updated Macs.

It's nice to know a company is making enough money to be around for the long term, even if they have "flubs"/"misses" (e.g. Apple, Google, Samsung, Microsoft, Nintendo), but beyond a threshold, they need to make things I and other consumers would want to buy.

 

[TallManNY]

I'm most interested in what they are going to do with the repatriated cash. The child in me wants them to announce a one-time dividend totaling $100 billion. This is because nothing like that has ever been done and this is the only likely scenario where a company could have that much cash on hand and have little use for it. But I know nothing like that is going to happen.

 

[DevNull0]

High risk high stakes game being played with hefty price tags with the possible lower number of mobiles. Ex-Burberry exec(sorry, can't spell her name, like tongue twister) is precisely to address this area

Playing high risk high stakes when you're already worth hundreds of billions is just idiotic. Just ask John Sculley. He made a fortune for Apple for years and was for a while the highest paid CEO in Silicon Valley. Doing exactly what Tim Cook is doing now.

Then he hit went over the cliff. And Timmy's cliff is a lot bigger, the only thing we don't know is how far away it is.
[doublepost=1517431724][/doublepost]

Of course what goes up must come down, but maybe not in your timetable. Hopefully Apple hits a trillion valuation before it slides into oblivion.

We talked about it last week when I said Apple would hit $100 billion before $! trillion. At the time I told you I'd just bought $175 February puts for $3 a piece. I've tripled my investment as of now, and I can't wait to see where Apple opens Friday.

Apple didn’t really disrupt blackberry as much as blackberry made many fateful decisions, because their management was short-sided.

In a way you're right, in a way it's semantics. Blackberry had no idea how to deal with Apple, the didn't see the value of an App store, and in hindsight they made fatal short-sighted decisions on how to deal with Apple.

Given Timmy's short sighted profit grabbing at the expense of all else, what makes you think Apple will be any different?

obviously we don’t and can’t predict the mindset of a consumer. But that cool disruptive phone crafted by a startup could just as easy fade into oblivion.

Certainly, and many will fail. A couple did last year (and are on life support). But it just takes one that sticks and Apple is in a lot of trouble.

 

[I7guy]

Playing high risk high stakes when you're already worth hundreds of billions is just idiotic. Just ask John Sculley. He made a fortune for Apple for years and was for a while the highest paid CEO in Silicon Valley. Doing exactly what Tim Cook is doing now.

Then he hit went over the cliff. And Timmy's cliff is a lot bigger, the only thing we don't know is how far away it is.
[doublepost=1517431724][/doublepost]

We talked about it last week when I said Apple would hit $100 billion before $! trillion. At the time I told you I'd just bought $175 February puts for $3 a piece. I've tripled my investment as of now, and I can't wait to see where Apple opens Friday.



In a way you're right, in a way it's semantics. Blackberry had no idea how to deal with Apple, the didn't see the value of an App store, and in hindsight they made fatal short-sighted decisions on how to deal with Apple.

Given Timmy's short sighted profit grabbing at the expense of all else, what makes you think Apple will be any different?



Certainly, and many will fail. A couple did last year (and are on life support). But it just takes one that sticks and Apple is in a lot of trouble.

It doesn’t really mater what Apple does on a minute by minute basis unless you are a day trader. Apple will hit 1 trillion before 100 billion.(imo) at any rate reality being what it is you can post (as can I) to your hearts content and the universe will keep it real.

 

[Bone Ranger]

$31 million per hour? Not bad Tim.

 

[Abazigal]

nothing runs fast forever
difficult to see how this all plays out but look at Harley Davidson Motorcycle.

Until that fateful day does come, the haters had best bury deep.

 

[iProfile]

People celebrating billionaires getting more billions for products that pale in comparison to their competition.

And charge more for the ‘privelege’.

Only Apple can do this.

I’m so woke now after reading your comment. Namaste, sensei.

 

[Baymowe335]

I am really anxious to hear what Apple has to say.

Hon Hai posted an insane increase in November and December revenues. Like 30%+ better than 2016.

AT&T also had almost 10% more new activations than last year.
[doublepost=1517459812][/doublepost]

Playing high risk high stakes when you're already worth hundreds of billions is just idiotic. Just ask John Sculley. He made a fortune for Apple for years and was for a while the highest paid CEO in Silicon Valley. Doing exactly what Tim Cook is doing now.

Then he hit went over the cliff. And Timmy's cliff is a lot bigger, the only thing we don't know is how far away it is.
[doublepost=1517431724][/doublepost]

We talked about it last week when I said Apple would hit $100 billion before $! trillion. At the time I told you I'd just bought $175 February puts for $3 a piece. I've tripled my investment as of now, and I can't wait to see where Apple opens Friday.



In a way you're right, in a way it's semantics. Blackberry had no idea how to deal with Apple, the didn't see the value of an App store, and in hindsight they made fatal short-sighted decisions on how to deal with Apple.

Given Timmy's short sighted profit grabbing at the expense of all else, what makes you think Apple will be any different?



Certainly, and many will fail. A couple did last year (and are on life support). But it just takes one that sticks and Apple is in a lot of trouble.

Your “investment” was a trade and worked out great. Doesn’t prove anything other than good timing in this case. Keep doing it and you will be burned like everyone betting against Apple all the way to $180.

Btw, how many did you buy? Don’t talk about tripling something unless you give dollars. Who cares if you tripled some small sum? That means you know the company?

Saying “Apple is in a lot of trouble” is just ludicrous given the multiple, earnings, cash, and frankly all of their financials. You’re just throwing something out there. If the facts change, I’ll change, but there are very few facts to forecast any kind of imminent fall for Apple. You’re just trying to get attention. Give some objective reasons they are in trouble that aren’t just speculative opinions.

They are about to report $20B of profit in 90 days, a record. Do you understand how much profit $20B in 90 days is? That’s more than Google made in all of 2016. It’s the same as Microsoft’s entire 2017. These are $825B and $700B+ companies, respectively.

Please explain how they are in trouble. Literally nothing has changed from 2 weeks ago at $180 besides some fake news.

Apple is on a different planet than Blackberry ever was. They are hardly even comparable. Any company has outside risk factors. Again, when the facts change, I’ll change. When there is a CLEAR better alternative, we can talk...until then, you’re just blowing smoke.
[doublepost=1517460447][/doublepost]

I'm most interested in what they are going to do with the repatriated cash. The child in me wants them to announce a one-time dividend totaling $100 billion. This is because nothing like that has ever been done and this is the only likely scenario where a company could have that much cash on hand and have little use for it. But I know nothing like that is going to happen.

If you’re an investor, you don’t want a special dividend. They are a waste of money and a one time thing you’ll have to pay tax on anyway. I want them to buyback as many shares as they can and keep the EPS going higher. I love reducing share count. Saves money on dividends, better for taxes and makes my shares more valuable. Win. Win. Win.

 

[44267547]

I love when people say or complain that a product is priced to high. Then proceed to praise the same company when they make record profits.

Two different things. Apple has always been priced much higher than the competition and you have those who don't always feel that the product lives up to the expectation with limiting features, "Defects", etc . However, they (The consumer) want to see the success of Apple because they do appreciate how the products are made and they want to support the company if they have been a long-time customer, have had good experiences, etc. Not to mention, tech forums are a very vocal minority who express their passion differently for Apple.

I wouldn’t mind paying less for my Apple gear, but it looks like they know what they are doing when it comes to pricing.

If you paid a lot less for your Apple products, then I'm willing to believe the quality control standards might be lower, support might be limited in terms of longevity, ect. You get what you pay for in this world, and Apple products tend to deliver, even given their inflated prices.

 

[DUIduckSAUCE]

Two different things. Apple has always been priced much higher than the competition and you have those who don't always feel that the product lives up to the expectation with limiting features, "Defects", etc . However, they (The consumer) want to see the success of Apple because they do appreciate how the products are made and they want to support the company if they have been a long-time customer, have had good experiences, etc. Not to mention, tech forums are a very vocal minority who express their passion differently for Apple.



If you paid a lot less for your Apple products, then I'm willing to believe the quality control standards might be lower, support might be limited in terms of longevity, ect. You get what you pay for in this world, and Apple products tend to deliver, even given their inflated prices.

I was speaking of people not things.

 

[44267547]

I was speaking of people not things.

As was I. Please, when responding, at least take The time to read the Post, Because if you had, you're above quote wouldn't be necessary.

Hence:

(The consumer) wants to see the success of Apple because they do appreciate how the products are made and they want to support the company if they have been a long-time customer, have had good experiences, etc. Not to mention, tech forums are a very vocal minority who express their passion differently for Apple.

 

[TallManNY]

If you’re an investor, you don’t want a special dividend. They are a waste of money and a one time thing you’ll have to pay tax on anyway. I want them to buyback as many shares as they can and keep the EPS going higher. I love reducing share count. Saves money on dividends, better for taxes and makes my shares more valuable. Win. Win. Win.

Oh, I know all the tax advantages of a share buyback versus a dividend. But it would still be much cooler to do the dividend. Also I'm pretty sure Apple would have to trickle in the share buy back program slowly (in the context of deploying $100 billion) or else end up bidding against themselves on share prices. The result is we would have continued issue of just gobs of cash sitting on the balance sheet.

And while there is a tax hit from dividends, the cash gets immediately into the hands of investors. The buy back program should raise share prices (nice!) but investors still have to take a tax hit selling those shares before they can use the increase on additional investment opportunities.

But mainly it would just be cool.

 

[DevNull0]

I
Your “investment” was a trade and worked out great. Doesn’t prove anything other than good timing in this case. Keep doing it and you will be burned like everyone betting against Apple all the way to $180.

Btw, how many did you buy? Don’t talk about tripling something unless you give dollars. Who cares if you tripled some small sum? That means you know the company?

I bought Put options, hardly a risky strategy, Apple could go to $300 and I only lose what I paid for the options.

I bought 10 contracts (1000 shares), when Apple was $178 I paid around $3.20/share. As of now it's last traded at $9.69/share. My $3,200 investment is currently worth $9,690. I will be holding it through earnings tonight, so tomorrow's opening is going to be fun. At this point, every $1 change in Apple = $1,000 change in my options though I can never lose more than the option value.

Saying “Apple is in a lot of trouble” is just ludicrous given the multiple, earnings, cash, and frankly all of their financials. You’re just throwing something out there. If the facts change, I’ll change, but there are very few facts to forecast any kind of imminent fall for Apple.

Until tonight, all we have are rumours. But there's a lot pointing to a disaster for the iPhone X.

You’re just trying to get attention. Give some objective reasons they are in trouble that aren’t just speculative opinions.

One example https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/29/apple-falls-as-iphone-x-order-cut-reports-mount.html There are plenty more like it.

And, yes, if you search you can find plenty of examples saying Apple will have their best quarter ever. The 2 big things i focus on.

First, what rational and numbers do they have to back up their claims and timing of news. Over the past 2 months there's been a lot of bad news for the iPhone X for a lot of reasons, and over the past week a ton of articles saying best sales ever with no facts to support the claim. That smells like a pump and dump to me.

And second, what is the stock doing? For any company, in the last few weeks before earnings are released, plenty of people in a rapidly spreading circle know what the real numbers are and you can't stop people from trading on that info. Apple is down $12/share because people know something. Usually leading up to earnings Apple price goes up a lot, and then on earnings it drops a bit because it was bid up too much.

They are about to report $20B of profit in 90 days, a record. Do you understand how much profit $20B in 90 days is? That’s more than Google made in all of 2016. It’s the same as Microsoft’s entire 2017. These are $825B and $700B+ companies, respectively.

Hilarious. You go on and on about how we have no facts, demand I provide a justification for my opinion -- yes opinion -- and then you make a bald-faced assertion like that as if it somehow a known fact.

Known facts btw are that Apple is beginning to pay it's Ireland taxes that the EU ordered, they're facing over 50 class action lawsuits and investigations from several governments over it's handling of the iPhone battery issue. Uncertainty on those liabilities is not good for stock price no matter how well you believe it will turn out for Apple in the end.

Please explain how they are in trouble. Literally nothing has changed from 2 weeks ago at $180 besides some fake news.

Ooh, now fake news. Yet your claim of $20 billion profit is a rock hard fact?

My exact point is that it's plunged on no real new publicly available, but there are people who know what's going on. Happens every time to every company when they report earnings.

Apple is on a different planet than Blackberry ever was.

Well there's no way to argue with devotion like that, that's how religious wars start. That attitude is how companies collapse too.

Polaroid was on a different planet than digital cameras. They thought they were safe on the self-developing picture planet, when it turned out they were on the instant-gratification pictures planet, and that mistake cost them the company.

Let's hope Tim Cook understands Apple's planet better than you do.

They are hardly even comparable. Any company has outside risk factors. Again, when the facts change, I’ll change. When there is a CLEAR better alternative, we can talk...until then, you’re just blowing smoke.

Been said 100,000 times in 100,000 different boardrooms. All 100,000 companies went bankrupt before they every acknowledged the facts had changed.

 

[Carnegie]

What's kinda crazy is that expectations are that Apple's revenue grew something like 11% YoY for this past quarter and will grow something like 24% YoY for the current quarter, and AAPL is still trading at around a 15 forward P/E. The supposed current expectations don't match the current share price. (That's long been the case when it came to Apple.) If those expectations are met (with last quarter's results and this quarter's guidance), the share price should jump considerably. But I don't expect it will. I expect it will take a meaningful beat on those already incredible expectations to see a major jump in Apple's share price. On the other side, even a significant miss shouldn't mean a decline in Apple's share price, but I expect it would.

 

[Baymowe335]

I bought Put options, hardly a risky strategy, Apple could go to $300 and I only lose what I paid for the options.

I bought 10 contracts (1000 shares), when Apple was $178 I paid around $3.20/share. As of now it's last traded at $9.69/share. My $3,200 investment is currently worth $9,690. I will be holding it through earnings tonight, so tomorrow's opening is going to be fun. At this point, every $1 change in Apple = $1,000 change in my options though I can never lose more than the option value.



Until tonight, all we have are rumours. But there's a lot pointing to a disaster for the iPhone X.



One example https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/29/apple-falls-as-iphone-x-order-cut-reports-mount.html There are plenty more like it.

And, yes, if you search you can find plenty of examples saying Apple will have their best quarter ever. The 2 big things i focus on.

First, what rational and numbers do they have to back up their claims and timing of news. Over the past 2 months there's been a lot of bad news for the iPhone X for a lot of reasons, and over the past week a ton of articles saying best sales ever with no facts to support the claim. That smells like a pump and dump to me.

And second, what is the stock doing? For any company, in the last few weeks before earnings are released, plenty of people in a rapidly spreading circle know what the real numbers are and you can't stop people from trading on that info. Apple is down $12/share because people know something. Usually leading up to earnings Apple price goes up a lot, and then on earnings it drops a bit because it was bid up too much.



Hilarious. You go on and on about how we have no facts, demand I provide a justification for my opinion -- yes opinion -- and then you make a bald-faced assertion like that as if it somehow a known fact.

Known facts btw are that Apple is beginning to pay it's Ireland taxes that the EU ordered, they're facing over 50 class action lawsuits and investigations from several governments over it's handling of the iPhone battery issue. Uncertainty on those liabilities is not good for stock price no matter how well you believe it will turn out for Apple in the end.



Ooh, now fake news. Yet your claim of $20 billion profit is a rock hard fact?

My exact point is that it's plunged on no real new publicly available, but there are people who know what's going on. Happens every time to every company when they report earnings.



Well there's no way to argue with devotion like that, that's how religious wars start. That attitude is how companies collapse too.

Polaroid was on a different planet than digital cameras. They thought they were safe on the self-developing picture planet, when it turned out they were on the instant-gratification pictures planet, and that mistake cost them the company.

Let's hope Tim Cook understands Apple's planet better than you do.



Been said 100,000 times in 100,000 different boardrooms. All 100,000 companies went bankrupt before they every acknowledged the facts had changed.

You're wrong on so many levels. Ireland is going into an escrow account, not being paid. It's not NEAR over. If they do have to pay, it won't matter because it's been set aside. IF they don't, huge windfall. Win win. The actual payment will be made if/when they lose and will be appealed endlessly. The lawsuits haven't had any impact to the stock. All of that was old news when it traded at $180. NONE of that moved the stock and if you followed the company, you'd know that.

The recent hit is due to FAKE news on iPhone X demand and production cuts. We will know in about 15 minutes.

$19B, $20B, $21B...whatever it is, it will be a record. Again, tell me how that means they are in trouble? The profit number is as factual as it gets before earnings are actually announced. You can extrapolate it from Apple's own guidance. At any rate, you'll see soon enough and still have yet to address how a company can post record sales and profit and be "in serious trouble." I trust when the report is released, you'll come back to explain in detail.

Again, Blackberry and Polaroid were never as strong as Apple today and were hit with a buzzsaw of new tech. That doesn't exist...yet. It might and will be a threat to Apple, but there is no evidence it's here TODAY. Saying they are "in big trouble" implies there is something that exists TODAY to threaten their viability.

The market decided long ago the battery, lawsuits, and Ireland are literally meaningless and the stock went on to $180. Unless you think those things bankrupt the company, it's already over.

I can already see I understand Apple FAR more deeply than you do. The points you made are so completely wrong that you no longer can be taken seriously. If you followed Apple, you know the stock is HIGHLY manipulated by fake news that comes out before every report. There is no evidence of "insider selling" when something about the earnings is known before the public and in fact, the reports often REFUTES every fake news article that knocked it down. Happened last year with Nikkei and iPhone 7 demand.
[doublepost=1517520120][/doublepost]Estimates noted for future discussion:

Earnings: $3.85 a share
Revenue: $87.5 billion
iPhone sales: 80 million units iPhone
average selling price: $756
iPad sales: 14 million
Mac sales: 6 million
Software and services revenue: $8.67 billion
[doublepost=1517520711][/doublepost]$88.3B in revenue is solid, not what I expected to be honest. $3.89/share is a beat as well.

"We're thrilled to report the biggest quarter in Apple's history, with broad-based growth that included the highest revenue ever from a new iPhone lineup. iPhone X surpassed our expectations and has been our top-selling iPhone every week since it shipped in November. We've also achieved a significant milestone with our active installed base of devices reaching 1.3 billion in January. That's an increase of 30 percent in just two years, which is a testament to the popularity of our products and the loyalty and satisfaction of our customers."

 

[I7guy]

Been said 100,000 times in 100,000 different boardrooms. All 100,000 companies went bankrupt before they every acknowledged the facts had changed.

And then there is Apple who various people have predicted the beginning of the end since 2011. Well Apple refused to roll over for these folks and now is close to $1T.

 

[Baymowe335]

I bought Put options, hardly a risky strategy, Apple could go to $300 and I only lose what I paid for the options.

I bought 10 contracts (1000 shares), when Apple was $178 I paid around $3.20/share. As of now it's last traded at $9.69/share. My $3,200 investment is currently worth $9,690. I will be holding it through earnings tonight, so tomorrow's opening is going to be fun. At this point, every $1 change in Apple = $1,000 change in my options though I can never lose more than the option value.



Until tonight, all we have are rumours. But there's a lot pointing to a disaster for the iPhone X.



One example https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/29/apple-falls-as-iphone-x-order-cut-reports-mount.html There are plenty more like it.

And, yes, if you search you can find plenty of examples saying Apple will have their best quarter ever. The 2 big things i focus on.

First, what rational and numbers do they have to back up their claims and timing of news. Over the past 2 months there's been a lot of bad news for the iPhone X for a lot of reasons, and over the past week a ton of articles saying best sales ever with no facts to support the claim. That smells like a pump and dump to me.

And second, what is the stock doing? For any company, in the last few weeks before earnings are released, plenty of people in a rapidly spreading circle know what the real numbers are and you can't stop people from trading on that info. Apple is down $12/share because people know something. Usually leading up to earnings Apple price goes up a lot, and then on earnings it drops a bit because it was bid up too much.



Hilarious. You go on and on about how we have no facts, demand I provide a justification for my opinion -- yes opinion -- and then you make a bald-faced assertion like that as if it somehow a known fact.

Known facts btw are that Apple is beginning to pay it's Ireland taxes that the EU ordered, they're facing over 50 class action lawsuits and investigations from several governments over it's handling of the iPhone battery issue. Uncertainty on those liabilities is not good for stock price no matter how well you believe it will turn out for Apple in the end.



Ooh, now fake news. Yet your claim of $20 billion profit is a rock hard fact?

My exact point is that it's plunged on no real new publicly available, but there are people who know what's going on. Happens every time to every company when they report earnings.



Well there's no way to argue with devotion like that, that's how religious wars start. That attitude is how companies collapse too.

Polaroid was on a different planet than digital cameras. They thought they were safe on the self-developing picture planet, when it turned out they were on the instant-gratification pictures planet, and that mistake cost them the company.

Let's hope Tim Cook understands Apple's planet better than you do.



Been said 100,000 times in 100,000 different boardrooms. All 100,000 companies went bankrupt before they every acknowledged the facts had changed.

So just to be clear, they hit the $20B profit on the nose. A record and 13% rise over same Quarter last year. Do you realize how insane that is? More than Microsoft made last year and Google in 2016.

Looking forward to your explanation on how they are in trouble.

I am actually somewhat disappointed in their earnings, but you can't argue with $20B in profit. The X absolutely destroyed estimates because ASP was $800. The X SAVED them because unit sales were disappointing at only 77.3B iPhones sold (if you can be disappointed) small decrease over last year. iPhone REVENUE was $61.5B this year versus $54.3B last year. Can you say iPhone X and people want more expensive phones?

 

[Blaze4G]

Because I follow the stock much closer than you. If they sell under 79M phones, it will be a pretty big miss and the stock will decline significantly. Even selling 80-81M phones will not be considered very strong.

Many analysts have predictions for iPhone sales and consensus is for a record, easily. Since you don't follow the company as closely as I do, you don't understand where I'm getting my numbers. That's fine, but don't act like you know what you're talking about. You really have no idea other than how you feel.

I'm also not talking about revenue. I totally understand ASP, which will increase significantly due to the X. We are looking for $750 ASP or higher. UNIT sales need to be above 80M (a record) for Apple to be viewed as successful and everyone modeled they will do it.

Guidance alone essentially telegraphed 80M+ iPhone sales.

You don't understand the numbers.

1) Every country is becoming more and more industrialized every day. The world is moving forward.
2) Apple currently sells a little more than 200M iPhones annually. This means with a 1.2M base, each group only has to update once every 5 years and they can still grow sales.
3) They are always acquiring new customers and have insanely high retention.
4) You realize 'iPhone" is still the MOST popular single phone? Samsung has so many models. Samsung doesn't sell nearly has many "Galaxy" phones as iPhones. iPhone is the most popular single phone in the world. Yes, there are some different models, but it's all under Apple's high margin umbrella. Samsung sells many phones at 0 margin.
[doublepost=1517421378][/doublepost]
Because I follow the stock much closer than you. If they sell under 79M phones, it will be a pretty big miss and the stock will decline significantly. Even selling 80-81M phones will not be considered very strong.

Many analysts have predictions for iPhone sales and consensus is for a record, easily. Since you don't follow the company as closely as I do, you don't understand where I'm getting my numbers. That's fine, but don't act like you know what you're talking about. You really have no idea other than how you feel.

I'm also not talking about revenue. I totally understand ASP, which will increase significantly due to the X. We are looking for $750 ASP or higher. UNIT sales need to be above 80M (a record) for Apple to be viewed as successful and everyone modeled they will do it.

Guidance alone essentially telegraphed 80M+ iPhone sales.

A record in iPhones sales...easily right?
So even with following the company as close as you do my prediction was better. Don't act like you know what you're talking about. You really have no idea what you are talking about. I didn't even have to watch the company close to know what I was talking about.

You were wrong again saying unit sales need to be above 80M for Apple to be viewed as successful.

Incorrect and speculative analysis with zero factual evidence supporting the position.

The facts are Apple will sell the most iPhones ever this quarter and projected the most ever in 2018. People are willing to pay more for smartphones today and that includes iPhones and the nearly $1,000 Note and Pixel 2XL.

People don’t look at total cost. They look at monthly payments, just like cars. Keep dreaming and we will keep looking at th facts. Absolutely nothing you’ve said is playing out in reality.

So much for being a FACT that Apple will sell more than 78M phones. Spewing facts based off of speculation is not a fact. Again not shocking you were once again wrong.

 

[Carnegie]

EDIT: Wrong thread. Ooops.

 

[Baymowe335]

A record in iPhones sales...easily right?
So even with following the company as close as you do my prediction was better. Don't act like you know what you're talking about. You really have no idea what you are talking about. I didn't even have to watch the company close to know what I was talking about.

You were wrong again saying unit sales need to be above 80M for Apple to be viewed as successful.



So much for being a FACT that Apple will sell more than 78M phones. Spewing facts based off of speculation is not a fact. Again not shocking you were once again wrong.

I have no problem admitting I was wrong. I was wrong on my expectation for iPhone sales, but I was dead on that iPhone X sold well. Almost $800 ASP means X saved them. I was actually too conservative on my iPhone X estimate because they clearly sold a lot to make up for the unit sales shortfall (Which was definitely slightly disappoint to Wallstreet as the stock dipped at first until people digested the quarter).

Plus, 13 weeks of sales versus 14 last year means they would have sold more this quarter using the same 13 week run rate. It's semantics, but the $20B profit was a record and predicted by me. Revenue was up 13% y/y. It was the best quarter in Apple's history.

You can say I was wrong about iPhone unit sales (and I admit I am SLIGHTLY disappointed) but the fact is they did $61.5B in iPhone revenue this quarter versus $54.3B last quarter. I believe the strategy is to perhaps give up a few unit sales to drive more premium iPhone utilization and get that ASP higher.

Basically, they traded $50 more in ASP for a 3M unit sale disappointment. I was definitely off on my unit sales, but it ended up no mattering because of the ASP bump which is probably bullish long term. Higher priced iPhone phone demand is excellent news.

I forgot why I was so hard on you, but I only meant it in that I follow the company so closely and analysts WERE predicting 80M+ phones but almost no one thought the X would sell this well to get ASP to $800.

So yes, I was wrong on unit sales, but they did 13% MORE iPhone revenue, so I was still kind of right on the record thing...just got there a different way.

 

[yukari]

Just goes to show how overpriced Apple's products are.

 

[DevNull0]

So just to be clear, they hit the $20B profit on the nose.

What can I say? It's obviously not what I was expecting. You're expecting me to twist facts and somehow pretend I was right? I was also interested in the Q2 guidance which again is surprisingly high.

Same logic as before, Timmy says they didn't even consider the effect of the battery program in the guidance. How can that possibly be true? It is a factor that they should at least consider, even if they don't believe it will have any impact, they should have some basis for concluding that. Claiming they didn't even think about it makes Apple sound like they have no clue what they're doing. If true, again I think Q2 will have to miss their guidance that didn't factor it in how can people knowing they can speed up their old phone for $29 not have at least some effect on sales.

We've been hearing reports about Apple slashing orders for iPhone X next corner, which even Apple apologists have been saying makes sense and is no big deal because they get their sales the first quarter and always cut back next quarter (which is true). How do you reconcile that with $60-62 billion guidance vs under $50 billion same quarter last year?