Apple Expected to Report Second-Best June Quarter Ever Today as Investors Look Ahead to iPhone 8

Vanilla35

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Apr 11, 2013
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That chart looks pretty flat since the start of FY 15. The only thing sustaining the limited revenue growth during that time is the increase in average selling price of the iPhone as more people get either the plus model or opt for larger storage. However, Apple will eventually run up against a ceiling where people won't keep piling on the options and will face increased competition from other vendors.

Apple's outstanding growth has been in the perfection of markets for broad consumer adoption. It started in 2001 with the iPod, really hits its stride with the iPhone in 2007 which managed seven years of continuous market growth until the iPhone 6 in 2014, and was helped by the iPad in 2010 which had a few years of exponential growth before plateauing.

Apple's problem now is the unit sales of their main products have been stagnant for three years and they don't have a revolutionary product on the horizon. This year's iPhone needs to have 20% or better unit sales growth to keep Apple as a leading tech company. If sales remain flat they will certainly continue to be successful but will face a transition to a commodity provider as opposed to the market leader they have been over the last 16 years.
Samsung's S8 sales were less than the S7. Might be telling for Apple since they basically will be presenting their version of the same product. Bezelless design, facial recognition/iris scanning camera, etc.

The only difference is apple has released an iPhone 6s and 6ss the last couple years, so, as analysts have said, there is "pent up demand" for this year's redesign.
 

IJ Reilly

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Jul 16, 2002
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A consensus EPS of $1.57 means that anything less than about $1.70 reported will be rated as a disappointment by the markets.
 

Bacillus

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Jun 25, 2009
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iPhone dependance runs into crazy proportions. That's so risky.
Whereas the man who said the PostPC-era had started - and assumed iPad would take over - appeared not to understand (how to drive) the market.
 
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IJ Reilly

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The most overused graphic on MR.
[doublepost=1501605408][/doublepost]
They might mean a bit more than the word "temendous" which seems to be over used these days.
Another overworked word, but fantastic and incredible are not only overworked adjectives, their formal meanings are quite different than what they are commonly used to describe.
 
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John80

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May 15, 2016
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I think there wont be iPhone 7S/Plus. I wrote it once, I write it again:

iPhone 7S may be worst iphone introduction ever. I thought that there is no reason to upgrade 6S to 7,because of small number of advantages. I see only rumors about iPhone 8/X/Pro etc, but almost no information about 7S... Propably better camera, but as every year it will not be big improvement to last year model. Inductive charging, ok but it's not a killer feature and I will have to buy charger seperatly. I think there will be absolutely no reason to upgrade 7 to 7S...

Is there any evidence that there is 7S?
 

Shanpdx

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Sep 24, 2008
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1. Of course iPhone sales are going to decrease ahead of a hotly anticipated "all new" iPhone.

2. iPhone sales effectively subsidize Mac development at this point so be careful what you wish for. If the iPhone were to truly falter so would Apple. First thing that would be cut back would be Mac R&D.

3. Computers as we knew them, as people had them in the house, are never going to be what they were in the 90s and early 00's. It's a different time. Home computers are still important but they are past peak.
agreed, but the specs (mainly the storage and RAM capacities) are pointing different direction. Kudos to Intel, they kept the CPU/GPU prices relatively low (iPad/Smartphones might be the reason for it).

Apple have been steadily increasing the 13" MBP prices. You need at least $1800 to get a decent laptop.
 

Shanpdx

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Sep 24, 2008
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Blazer town!
I think you mean the opposite. Slow down in iPhone sales would mean they would try to focus harder on making the iPhone better.
I do not think iPhone sales and profits brought anything to Mac. Profits always included in that price. If not anything super awesome SSDs are costing more nowadays. When the Mac specs are middle at the best, why only concentrate on SSD speed and ask more money - $400/$800 (512GB/1TB) upgrades are not really make sense. If not anything Apple learned from iPhone, storage capacity is the up seller. well, anyway.
 

Dave245

macrumors 604
Sep 15, 2013
7,924
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I think there wont be iPhone 7S/Plus. I wrote it once, I write it again:

iPhone 7S may be worst iphone introduction ever. I thought that there is no reason to upgrade 6S to 7,because of small number of advantages. I see only rumors about iPhone 8/X/Pro etc, but almost no information about 7S... Propably better camera, but as every year it will not be big improvement to last year model. Inductive charging, ok but it's not a killer feature and I will have to buy charger seperatly. I think there will be absolutely no reason to upgrade 7 to 7S...

Is there any evidence that there is 7S?
There will be an iPhone 7s and 7s Plus, Apple will not just release the iPhone 8 not when it's going to cost around $1,200 they know not everyone will be able to or want to pay that for an iPhone, enter the iPhone 7s and 7s Plus. As for evidence, nearly all the reliable people such as Ming-Chi Kuo have said that there will be a 7s and 7s Plus.
 

Cosmosent

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Apr 20, 2016
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Guidance is the only thing that matters ... Apple either Sinks of Swims depending-upon how Cook presents their "Touch ID under Glass" efforts ... a technical challenge most people are NOT taking seriously enough !
 
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convergent

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May 6, 2008
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It will be really interesting to see the next quarter as the Macbook pros and Ipads were all updated at the end of this one. I'm very curious to see if Apple is winning people over with the new Macbook Pros.
They lost me... I bought my first non-Mac in years and love the thing.

Apple is not like Samsung. Samsung makes everything from warships to washing machines. If Apple ever failed in making a selling iPhone, their stock would sink like a ship hit by a torpedo. Apple is iPhone.
Exactly... they are really just a smartphone company with a few complimentary products. Everything else is flat or sinking. And within the iPhone dependency is their messaging which keeps a lot of people trapped in the ecosystem.

Hope there is a slow down on iPhone sales, so they will give more attention to Mac!
I hope that was a joke, because its the funniest thing I've heard in a long time. Apple is a smartphone company now. That is where their attention will be.

Take away the iPhone and your stock TANKS! Apple IS currently a ONE HIT WONDER. Every other category is small, and flat or decreasing. So, you are correct...lackluster new MBP, lack of Mac Pro, etc., keeps those categories either flat or sinking.
Agreed.
 

mdelvecchio

macrumors 68040
Sep 3, 2010
3,117
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Take away the iPhone and your stock TANKS! Apple IS currently a ONE HIT WONDER. Every other category is small, and flat or decreasing. So, you are correct...lackluster new MBP, lack of Mac Pro, etc., keeps those categories either flat or sinking.
Other one-hit wonders:

Google -- take away advertising

Coke -- take away coke

Facebook -- take away FB

...etc. Pure nonsense, in other words.

Additionally, you're flat out wrong -- Apple's iPad revenue are larger than most other entire companies. Their services likewise. Etc..

But beyond this ignorance, it doesn't matter here in the land of reality because you can't take away the iPhone, it exists.
 

citysnaps

macrumors 603
Oct 10, 2011
6,101
10,160
San Francisco
Perhaps. I don't care about a redesign. I just wanted OLED but it appears we're getting it with conditions such as no touch ID. Guess we just have to wait and see what compromise Apple has in store for us.

For myself and many others: Guess we just have to wait and see what improvements Apple has in store for us.

Wearing gloves a good deal of the time, not having to take them off to unlock my phone will be huge.
 

BuddyTronic

macrumors 65816
Jul 11, 2008
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Guidance is the only thing that matters ... Apple either Sinks of Swims depending-upon how Cook presents their "Touch ID under Glass" efforts ... a technical challenge most people are NOT taking seriously enough !

I agree with you.

The short term stock price will relate to the future guidance given today.

All the enormous profits etc - everyone "expects" that now and even discounts how gigantic they are and where the stock should really be at when compared to others.

Apple guidance - It's always accurate and usually a bit conservative.

Here is the thing though - "guidance" could very likely affect the AAPL stock price more than it should - either way.

If there is a "delay" of iPhone 8 it won't matter that much in terms of sales really - we have all been used to having huge sell outs for the last 2 years, and then waiting a month or more to get the new iPhone even though you ordered in the first 5 minutes!. So these delay rumours are hopefully going to be taken with a grain of salt.

But we shall see.

For this one I am bullish, but still a bit nervous. I have been wrong a few times now and got screwed royally on some options, and made out like a bandit on others.

I'm still thinking right now might be a good time to pick up Jan 19th 2018 160 0r 165 calls for $4.70 or $3.40

20 minutes to decide!
 
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WBRacing

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Nov 19, 2012
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Apple is not like Samsung. Samsung makes everything from warships to washing machines. If Apple ever failed in making a selling iPhone, their stock would sink like a ship hit by a torpedo. Apple is iPhone.
This x100.

Sure they make enough from the Appstore alone that almost any bluechip company would be ecstatic to match but the iPhone accounts for such a high percentage of their profits that they really do have their golden egg in one basket.

Should they have a Note 7 type of issue (which with technology and 3rd party suppliers is always a possibility - no matter how remote) the share price would likely never recover from the inevitable tanking.
 

citysnaps

macrumors 603
Oct 10, 2011
6,101
10,160
San Francisco
I agree with you.

The short term stock price will relate to the future guidance given today.

All the enormous profits etc - everyone "expects" that now and even discounts how gigantic they are and where the stock should really be at when compared to others.

Apple guidance - It's always accurate and usually a bit conservative.

Here is the thing though - "guidance" could very likely affect the AAPL stock price more than it should - either way.

If there is a "delay" of iPhone 8 it won't matter that much in terms of sales really - we have all been used to having huge sell outs for the last 2 years, and then waiting a month or more to get the new iPhone even though you ordered in the first 5 minutes!. So these delay rumours are hopefully going to be taken with a grain of salt.

But we shall see.

For this one I am bullish, but still a bit nervous. I have been wrong a few times now and got screwed royally on some options, and made out like a bandit on others.

I'm still thinking right now might be a good time to pick up Jan 19th 2018 160 0r 165 calls for $4.70 or $3.40

20 minutes to decide!
Excellent and spot-on analysis.
 
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