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{Charlton Heston} Let My People Go!!! {Charlton Heston} ;)
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Unrelated to the original post but looking at states rushing to reopen, I hope we can erect efficient internal borders soon. Freeway checkpoints on all state borders and test every single passenger before boarding the plane. At least the responsible states can run their lives like normal then.

Responsible States??
Like New York?? :mad:
 
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Further, you can’t calculate the impact of mandating staying home with any precision. It may have helped transmission 10% or 50% or 5% or 105%. It also had many downsides which could ultimately impact lives.
I guess the problem is that we will never know. When people stay home and few die, is this evidence that a quarantine works or that the whole matter was overblown to begin with? We may never truly know.
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So how does the community develop ‘herd immunity’ if everyone is isolated from the virus for a long period of time. One’s body has to become infected in order for the immune system to respond. With all this lockdown and social distancing we’ll all still be sitting ducks for the virus. It’s not going to just fade away. This would imply that lockdowns and social distancing must continue indefinitely until a vaccine is found. Society simply can’t function in that state and the population will not stand for it.
The problem I see with the concept of herd immunity is that you have to have a large enough number of people infected first, which means that a portion of them is likely going to die from the virus. I can't imagine a government going - you know what? I think I am okay with 5-10% of my population dying just like that.
 
What are you trying to argue? I am not disagreeing that there will be a second wave. Stretch this out long enough and we’ll have a third wave if it mutates. Is it in regards to immunity? Studies seem to have reached a consensus that CV19 does not mutate quickly, ergo herd based immunity is possible.

As for “authority”, I am a doctor and have taught at both Harvard Medical School and Oxford but more about the brain and not so much the bugs.

it’s amazing how many oxford and Harvard teachers populate Internet forums. You would think they would have have better things to do, yet here they are.
 
it’s amazing how many oxford and Harvard teachers populate Internet forums. You would think they would have have better things to do, yet here they are.
Not allowed to have more than one interest? Incredulity aside, I have no interest in appealing to authority (has no place in science and medicine). What are you actually arguing?

Here is a little primer about viral mutation written for general public. Educate yourself and make informed opinions instead of relying on others.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-0690-4
 
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I guess the problem is that we will never know. When people stay home and few die, is this evidence that a quarantine works or that the whole matter was overblown to begin with? We may never truly know.
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The problem I see with the concept of herd immunity is that you have to have a large enough number of people infected first, which means that a portion of them is likely going to die from the virus. I can't imagine a government going - you know what? I think I am okay with 5-10% of my population dying just like that.
People sure think they know and the media is pounding the point, hard. We may never know and it's not good enough evidence to justify a longer term quarantine. We need a better reason to stay at home for any longer extended period of time. People quoting early models are not providing evidence, because those were completely inaccurate and made up.

Also, COVID-19 isn't just going away by staying home. Eventually, you have to emerge from hibernation and the quicker you do, the quicker you can get the benefits of exposure, crazy as it may sound. It's ridiculous to stay we should stay home until there is a vaccine for a virus that hardly is lethal for healthy individuals. This is proven in the data. The people that die have underlying conditions in an overwhelming majority of cases. We should be targeting the people at risk to stay home and the specific places with the most activity. A blanket quarantine is utterly stupid.

It seems @cocky jeremy and @Sedulous are two of the few people who have actually thought about this critically and have made a point to read the facts that counter the media hysteria. It's shocking how little critical thinking has been done on this entire situation, including professionals. We have literally allowed the media, a few doctors (who I think have good intentions, but aren't qualified to make policy), and bad modelers to change the course of the entire world.
 
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The problem I see with the concept of herd immunity is that you have to have a large enough number of people infected first, which means that a portion of them is likely going to die from the virus. I can't imagine a government going - you know what? I think I am okay with 5-10% of my population dying just like that.

5%-10% of the population? Where did you get that nonsense statistic? Look at the latest data - it is estimated that 25% of all New Yorkers already have anti-bodies, which means they already had COVID and silently recovered. Most scientists now agree that the real death rate of COVID is somewhere between 0.1%-0.5%. An order of magnitude lower than what hysterical media leads people to believe.

Of course any untimely death is tragic, but locking down the entire population is a completely backwards approach. Isolate the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Let the healthy population out of quarantine and let the majority of us develop herd immunity. Which incidentally will also be the most effective way to protect the vulnerable.
 
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I must say, I've always been a fan of architecture and that Apple Store is awesome.

On topic, I say let those that feel like they should take risks take them. If they die, they die. If employees don't want to take the risks, they should not.

For my part, my daughter WILL NOT return to school (she'll continue virtual school for the foreseeable), I'll continue to work from home, my sons never stopped working in their warehouse (where the exposure risk is low), and my wife will be wearing a mask when at work (she's also in a low-risk position).

I've always been antisocial, so the whole "social distancing" thing was never an issue for me and didn't change anything in my daily life other than clearing the roads when I needed groceries, etc.

I don't drink or smoke (so bars are out), I'm happily married with older children (no need to hunt), I don't care one bit for team sports (stadiums, tailgates, super bowl parties are all out), all my toys are here at home (computers, video games, musical instruments, home gym, movies), and I love skateboarding, swimming, biking and weight training, all of which are solo activities I can do outside and away from everyone.

15 years of having my family shipped all over the world while I was in the military helped train my immediate family to be a mostly self-contained unit.

EDIT:
I love how we live in an age where the trust in the media and/or scientific experts is constantly in question.

The age of information has become the age of disinformation.

Pick your side folks, do your homework, and face the consequences of your choice.
 
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NZ, Taiwan and HK are all small countries with populations lower than a single US state. "Contact tracing teams trained and in place" on a scale of a US-sized country is a pipe dream. Completely unrealistic in a foreseeable future.

I will put this simply to you. Unless there is a miracle and a vaccine is available in less than a year time (basically not possible) - vast majority of us are going to get COVID. Millions of us had already had COVID and recovered without even knowing it. It's just the matter of when. What draconian shelter-in-place and extreme social distancing rules do is prevent us from quickly developing herd immunity, which is the ONLY practical way to stop the virus in the absence of the vaccine.

Yes we need to keep the number of new COVID cases under control, and at a level where our medical system can deal with treating the sick. But in the the long run - we are better off letting the virus burn through the healthy population and developing herd immunity. This is why extreme social distancing for an indefinite period of time is a wrong answer, both in terms of economic and long term health impact.

Population size has little to do with it. If anything, there’s an economy of scale that should make this easier to do for larger wealthy countries like the US.

Your straw man argument doesn’t hold up. No one is advocating for an “indefinite” period — just that we wait until we’re testing more per capita and have contact tracing teams trained, and that there are much lower mortality numbers.

And by the way, Hong Kong has 7 million people, Taiwan has 23 million. Last time I checked, there are many US states with smaller populations.
 
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Initial models were off by such a large magnitude it's disgusting. We need to question the people still pushing for extended or indefinite lock downs.
Take away someone’s pay check and we see just how long they keep the status quo opinion. Timmy and Co. and still getting paid. Suicide has gone up. Depression is on the rise. Domestic violence. Child abuse. People dying at home from other illnesses because afraid to visit doctor. Unemployment through the roof. Homelessness will increase. None of this seems to matter. Neither does that fact that most recently studies around the world show the vast majority of folks are as symptomatic who have it. The whole thing at this point is an exercise in pride. Leaders should be apologising publicly and reopening society. Sweden didn’t lockdown and basically asked people to use common sense and form groups no larger than 49 people. People shop in large stores across America and you can guarantee corona is rampant on surfaces everywhere, including on and in their amazon parcels. To think that staying home for a few weeks somehow changes everything is illogical. Governments around the world were probably waiting to see hundreds of thousands take ill and die in Sweden (not a hot country either) and it never happened. Old+sick people can die from this, protect those and allow to world to return. Under 50 who died from flu last year is much higher than under 50 who died from Covid. Politically it’s like 500M have died from this thing. People need to wake from their slumber. I never believed the predictions from day one. They were too dramatic; call it instinct. Anyway, those of us who felt this way were right. Let’s bring the world back.
 
You're wrong. Actually, the % of the people that dies goes down. More and more studies are showing far more people have this than first thought. They will never get tested and count against the % that dies because they never needed to be tested to begin with. Every single study points to a .1 to .3% chance of dying. Hardly worth shutting anything down for. But feel free to hide in your safe space forever. Let the sane people get back to our lives.
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I'd say that no matter who has gotten or died from it. The people dying are already sick to the point of it not taking much to kill them. 95+% have at least one major preexisting condition. 85+% have 2 or more, with 3 being the median.

OK, forget future impact. Let’s also assume distancing has done nothing. It’s already killed more people in the US than all flu strains combined in a single season. And that’s adding a lot of conditions.

It has also killed people in the low risk risk demographic. The rest of your dispassionately morbid viewpoint isn’t worth addressing.
 
OK, forget future impact. Let’s also assume distancing has done nothing. It’s already killed more people in the US than all flu strains combined in a single season. And that’s adding a lot of conditions.

It has also killed people in the low risk risk demographic. The rest of your dispassionately morbid viewpoint isn’t worth addressing.
Wrong again. They're considering basically any death as being related to this right now. I've seen multiple doctors talking about the cause of death being listed as due to the virus when it straight up isn't the truth. Just like they're considering basically any breathing issue as "likely covid related" even when tests are never done. Pennsylvania just had to remove 200+ deaths off of their list because they got called out on it and got caught. the whole thing is a giant scam. Hospitals are being paid more to deal with patients with this virus so everything is "possible covid related". If you're too blind to see this, that's on you.
 
OK, forget future impact. Let’s also assume distancing has done nothing. It’s already killed more people in the US than all flu strains combined in a single season. And that’s adding a lot of conditions.

It has also killed people in the low risk risk demographic. The rest of your dispassionately morbid viewpoint isn’t worth addressing.
You keep repeating this as a fact. Where is this data sourced? The CDC seems to disagree with your source. The “flu” and CV19 have very similar symptoms. Even with many deaths simply attributed to CV19 without confirmation there are roughly twice as many deaths from the “flu”. In fact, CDC guidance allows for any death with uncertain cause to be attributed to CV19. I was just in a conversation with an old friend practicing in Hong Kong and she seemed to think this is the case everywhere.

Let us get real about the numbers. Even excluding all of the undiagnosed recovery cases, the mortality rate for low-risk groups is extraordinarily low. Although there are unfortunate exceptions, it is not justification for wholesale lockdown.

It is remarkable how many people are sticking with the doom and gloom regardless of how much evidence shows these forecasts were wrong. I am starting to wonder if there is some sort addiction many people have to the “doom and gloom”.
 
Info is sourced from John Hopkins.

The misappropriation of diagnoses is another matter I’m not currently prepared to speak to, so I’ll step down.
 
Under 50 who died from flu last year is much higher than under 50 who died from Covid. Politically it’s like 500M have died from this thing. People need to wake from their slumber. I never believed the predictions from day one. They were too dramatic; call it instinct. Anyway, those of us who felt this way were right. Let’s bring the world back.

7% of CV19 deaths are under 50 years old, so that’s 4200 (In 3 months)

Last flu season 2977 people under 50 years old died from the flu. (In an entire year)

60,000 people have died in the U.S., and that’s WITH social distancing, and they are still dying at a rate of around 2000 per day.

Quit making **** up to suit your politics.
 
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I am sorry but I think many posts here missed the point of these measures. The goal was to “flatten the curve” so that ICUs are not overwhelmed. The goal was never to eliminate infections. The final total number of infections was not going to change much. If the curve has been flattened then it is time to move forward.

Right but in Michigan nurses are being laid off right now. The hospitals were never in grave danger or dismay and we are one of the worst states. Given all this the governor just extended the stay at home until may 15 and is asking for the power to make that decision again after the 15th because she clearly wants it longer. I think it points to a possible over reaction. I just hope all the advocates of continual lock downs don’t for one second bitch to anybody about living conditions when their in the midst of a depression.
 
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7% of CV19 deaths are under 50 years old, so that’s 4200 (In 3 months)

Last flu season 2977 people under 50 years old died from the flu. (In an entire year)

60,000 people have died in the U.S., and that’s WITH social distancing, and they are still dying at a rate of around 2000 per day.

Quit making **** up to suit your politics.
Those are some potentially misleading numbers. Care to provide a source?
 
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Wrong again. They're considering basically any death as being related to this right now. I've seen multiple doctors talking about the cause of death being listed as due to the virus when it straight up isn't the truth. Just like they're considering basically any breathing issue as "likely covid related" even when tests are never done. Pennsylvania just had to remove 200+ deaths off of their list because they got called out on it and got caught. the whole thing is a giant scam. Hospitals are being paid more to deal with patients with this virus so everything is "possible covid related". If you're too blind to see this, that's on you.

How can you say wrong again to someone as if you're giving facts?

How many people died of the flu this season? Now when does flu season start?

How many people have died of Covid19 since February? So how many of that 60,000+ thousand is a "scam"? Since only one flu season over the past ten years had 60,000 die. How many of the 60,000+ and growing are falsely labeled?

And all the doctors saying how much more contagious than the flu, part of the scam?

All of the countries on the planet, in on the scam, huh? A scam to cause what exactly?

People are dying before they can get tested or test results back.

Hospitals also aren't making money off this, because it's leading to less people going to hospitals and urgent cares. It's down 40 to 60% for most healthcare systems. Also a lot of hospitals aren't having elective surgeries. Plus the hospitals having to pay to move and set up those who can work from home with laptops/thin clients/desktops and licenses for software. Hospitals are paying exorbitant prices for PPE and flying over to China to get it, as part of the scam?
 
7% of CV19 deaths are under 50 years old, so that’s 4200 (In 3 months)

Last flu season 2977 people under 50 years old died from the flu. (In an entire year)

60,000 people have died in the U.S., and that’s WITH social distancing, and they are still dying at a rate of around 2000 per day.

Quit making **** up to suit your politics.
You care an awful lot about being right to a bunch of strangers on the internet
 
"Texas, Georgia, and Tennessee, for example, are letting stay at home orders expire"

Of course they are :mad:
Yes and I’m in Texas and I am glad.
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You make some valid points, and technology does help advance our careers and work progress. But even if Apple stores reopen in my region, I’d still rather purchase online then visit an Apple Store as things stand currently. Mainly because there are such ‘close quarters’ in the stores with other individuals, but I imagine Apple will have restrictions with occupancy and of course ‘social distancing‘ will be maintained. But fortunately we have the convenience of making purchases right in the comfort of our homes. Technology Is an amazing thing that gives us advantages with then push of a button.
Awesome to hear! Time to start reopening everything or let businesses decide if they wish to reopen. For people living in fear, it is your right to choose if you we wish to go to those businesses or you can also choose to stay home.

This is the USA and we have the freedom to choose. We are not a socialistic company! And some of us, like me will not be living in fear!
Agree
 
Glad to live in a state where the politicians who represent you bluntly said they're concerned about the economy and not the people they represent...heh
 
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