Apple being Apple I'm fully expecting them to trim the marks by releasing an M2 15" Air this Spring and then releasing the M3 MBA in 13" and 15" sizes later in the year.
To be fair, it’s not like the MacBook Air hasn’t been updated twice in a year.I'm not a leaker, but it does seem likely the 15-inch MacBook Air will have the M2 chip. It's probably been in development since before TSMC began mass production of 3nm chips in December, and that ramp up takes time anyways. It's definitely odd that Apple is evidently waiting like 9 months after the 13-inch MacBook Air with the M2 chip to follow up with a larger model, but it seems to be happening. Ming-Chi Kuo mentioned that this 15-inch MacBook might not have Air branding, so perhaps that is how Apple could get away with updating the MacBook Air with the M3 chip later this year. Or if this does end up being an Air, maybe the MacBook Air lineup is not getting the M3 chip until 2024. Those are my best educated guesses about the situation and I could easily be wrong.
I assume they’re doing this because a 15 inch MacBook Air would be absolutely massive on college campuses and for students in general, so getting it out the door, no matter which processor it’s using, before back-to-school season starts is probably priority number one.The 15 inch MacBook Air is more likely, but even that would have been preferrably been a fall launch with M3.
They have done short upgrade cycles for things before, but it is a rare occurrence. You prefaced this like that is the norm for Apple.Apple being Apple I'm fully expecting them to trim the marks by releasing an M2 15" Air this Spring and then releasing the M3 MBA in 13" and 15" sizes later in the year.
I see a few paths.
Launch it at 8/256 just like the 13" - $1399 to start.
Launch with 8/512 - $1499 to start, maybe $1499.
Discontinue the M1 Air and M2 13" Pro, bump the M2 Air down to $1099, launch the 15" at $1299-$1399.
WWDC is a software event. There is no reason to announce hardware at this event unless it has major software development significance, and an overdue Mac Pro has no relevance there. They can launch that at any time. And you are not going to see M3 Macs any time soon. Definitely not this year. M3/A17 are the first 3nm chip out of TSMC which means low yields and low supply, barely enough to satisfy the A17 chip orders for iPhone 15 Pro. You'll be lucky to see M3 in the first half of 2024. The 15" MacBook Air is just a new size, and will ship with the M2.I just can't see them launching the Mac Pro at a spring event, thats definitely a WWDC product. The potential market in the audience is so large that you would get so many credit cards pulled out for pre-orders.
The 15 inch MacBook Air is more likely, but even that would have been preferrably been a fall launch with M3. I would instead focus on at least upgrading the mid range Mac Studio models to M2 Max, make M1 Max be the new entry level and save M2 Ultra for Pro.
I just can't see them launching the Mac Pro at a spring event, thats definitely a WWDC product. The potential market in the audience is so large that you would get so many credit cards pulled out for pre-orders.
The 15 inch MacBook Air is more likely, but even that would have been preferrably been a fall launch with M3. I would instead focus on at least upgrading the mid range Mac Studio models to M2 Max, make M1 Max be the new entry level and save M2 Ultra for Pro.
45,000 wafers*I assume they’re doing this because a 15 inch MacBook Air would be absolutely massive on college campuses and for students in general, so getting it out the door, no matter which processor it’s using, before back-to-school season starts is probably priority number one.
Not the first time they’ve done something like this either, the 15 inch MacBook Pro was updated in May 2019… Before being replaced with the 16 inch in November.
The Intel Air was updated in March 2020… Before being replaced with M1 in November.
but personally, in my opinion, if it’s true that at the moment TSMC is only able to make around 45,000 3NM chips a month, I don’t see Apple slapping it in literally their most popular computer until 2024, and instead saving all their current supply of 3NM processors for the new iPhone.
I don't care about that, as long as there is M2 Max Studio.If any of the rumors are even close, the Studio Ultra will not get M2 if some variant of M2 is the chip in the Mac Pro. It is entirely possible my M1 Studio Ultra (128GB, 10Gbit ethernet and 8TB SSD) is a one trick pony. That is working well for me. At over $7,000 cost after military discount, I see the Mac Pro being even more expensive.
The purchase crowd gets a lot thinner above $10k.
Is the iMac developed on a separate island or something? The iMac rumors are always incredible sparse.
I truly do not think Apple thinks this way at all anymore. They are in no hurry to release this particular product, and are not concerned with any such timetable. The 15" MacBook Air is just a new size, and a more expensive one. There is a niche group of people claiming they will buy it. Whether or not they do remains to be seen. Whether or not anyone is willing to plunk down $1599 for a non-pro MacBook these days remains to be seen.I assume they’re doing this because a 15 inch MacBook Air would be absolutely massive on college campuses and for students in general, so getting it out the door, no matter which processor it’s using, before back-to-school season starts is probably priority number one.
I suspect you are pricing it with consumer biases vs. what Apple wants out of it. Add several hundred to each of those for my guess.
Yes, that could get too close to current MBpro pricing but Apple can "fix" that by hiking those prices with the new versions of those too. I suspect they'll "fix" the illogical(?) clash of M2 Pro Mini vs. M1 Max Studio pricing the very same way.
Would be nice – given that they have resolved the whining noise issue from the M1-based version from last year that seems to have affected a lot of users.I'm just here hoping they upgrade the Mac Studio to M2 Max and M2 Ultra first.
PlausibleThings I'm hoping for in the MacBook Air Refresh:
15.6 inch version
Wifi 6E and BT 5.3
two more USB C ports on the right side of the machine. (they won't be thunderbolt, but hey if the iMac can do it, why not the Air?)
Slightly better thermal dissipation situation? Maybe beefed up thermal pads in the machine?
I am pricing it based on historical trends for multi-size consumer Apple notebooks, as well as the current gap between similarly specced MacBook Pros. The 14" MBP, when equipped with the same 12 core M2 Pro as the 16", is only $200 less.
aren’t you the guy who said that they would never ever ever ever ever put an M2pro in a Mac Mini… literally the night before they did just that?I truly do not think Apple thinks this way at all anymore. They are in no hurry to release this particular product, and are not concerned with any such timetable. The 15" MacBook Air is just a new size, and a more expensive one. There is a niche group of people claiming they will buy it. Whether or not they do remains to be seen. Whether or not anyone is willing to plunk down $1599 for a non-pro MacBook these days remains to be seen.
Yes I understand your logic. However, Apple seems to be chasing profit growth harder than ever these days. So I don't know if history is a very good guide. Apple the historical logic and then add 20% or more as extra markup for 2023.
But, that offered, I'll hope you are right. I prefer lower prices to higher prices. I'm simply pricing pessimistic... that Apple will likely jack everything up in the next 12-18 months. Fans will then spin "inflation" and "supply chain" to be followed by Apple reporting "record profits" even if on lower revenue and/or volume of unit sales. Apparently "inflation" and "supply chain" only affects us end buyers and not Apple's buyers.
All three designs of the Mac Pro have been introduced at WWDC, the first in 06, again in 2013 and most recently in 2019.WWDC is a software event. There is no reason to announce hardware at this event unless it has major software development significance, and an overdue Mac Pro has no relevance there.
Yes, there is. The pattern is: It's a software event that happens every year, where hardware is rarely announced. So the way people constantly make silly predictions about mediocre hardware introductions being "saved for wwdc" as if its some kind of stage for that is a ridiculous.there is absolutely no pattern when it comes to what hardware they announce at wwdc.
This from the person that thinks a $1599 MacBook is somehow a big deal for back to school.aren’t you the guy who said that they would never ever ever ever ever put an M2pro in a Mac Mini… literally the night before they did just that?
So when you say something Apple won’t do or doesn’t care about, I’m supposed to take it seriously?
Apple doesn’t care about the back to school season.
Apple, the company who has held several education focused events?
Apple, who literally targets the budget iPad and the MacBook Air at college students in their promos?
Apple, who has introduced new laptops and or iPads every spring of the last 11 years.
But sure, they don’t care about the back to school season.
Next your gonna tell me they don’t care about the holiday season either.