Apple Forecasted to Report First Full-Year Revenue Decline Since 2001

[melendezest]

This drop in revenue will not break Apple. Not even close.

That said, I feel Apple is stumbling in the dark looking for a vision because they lost their visionary.

I believe Tim and Jony have (foolishly) made "Fashion" Apple's new vision. They took Steve's comment "Don't do what I'd do, do what's right" completely the wrong way and threw out the SJ product rulebook. Steve made awesome products that were "fashionable" because they were both powerful and elegant. Tim and co. have put (feminine-focused) fashion first and foremost.

This is why they took "Computer" out of their name. This is why Angela's there. This is why we (used to) get $15K watches and rose-gold-anything. This is why we got the (still sexy, but) ridiculously outdated tube Mac "(non)Pro". This is why "thinner-is-better" in Apple-land. This is why the UI and everything else is so. Damn. Feminine. No popping-the-hood. No tinkering. No MUSCLE anywhere (except on the wasted-on-iOS-device Ax chips). Nothing against the above, except that that is ALL THEY OFFER (although the all-black iPhone is a good start in the right direction, but again, color is still a "fashion" component).

Hopefully Apple will begin rectifying the situation this Thursday. I'm honest-to-goodness hoping for something good.

But I doubt it. My disappointment in post-Jobs Apple has already gone through all five Stages of Grief and I'm squarely in the Acceptance stage.

 

[NT1440]

This drop in revenue will not break Apple. Not even close.

That said, I feel Apple is stumbling in the dark looking for a vision because they lost their visionary.

I believe Tim and Jony have (foolishly) made "Fashion" Apple's new vision. They took Steve's comment "Don't do what I'd do, do what's right" completely the wrong way and threw out the SJ product rulebook. Steve made awesome products that were "fashionable" because they were both powerful and elegant. Tim and co. have put (feminine-focused) fashion first and foremost.

This is why they took "Computer" out of their name. This is why Angela's there. This is why we (used to) get $15K watches and rose-gold-anything. This is why we got the (still sexy, but) ridiculously outdated tube Mac "(non)Pro". This is why "thinner-is-better" in Apple-land. This is why the UI and everything else is so. Damn. Feminine. No popping-the-hood. No tinkering. No MUSCLE anywhere (except on the wasted-on-iOS-device Ax chips). Nothing against the above, except that that is ALL THEY OFFER (although the all-black iPhone is a good start in the right direction, but again, color is still a "fashion" component).

Hopefully Apple will begin rectifying the situation this Thursday. I'm honest-to-goodness hoping for something good.

But I doubt it. My disappointment in post-Jobs Apple has already gone through all five Stages of Grief and I'm squarely in the Acceptance stage.

....Apple dropped computer from their name in 2007.

 

[ActionableMango]

I don't think any of you blaming headphone jacks or lack of Steve (or whatever) understand that unsustainable iPhone sales growth had to end some day. It's the inherent nature of unsustainable growth.

Growth was really high at first because zero people had iPhones, so you could sell an iPhone to everyone. Once everyone who wanted one had one, growth tanked and Apple could only rely on expanding markets for growth. Once Apple expanded to all markets, that only left conquest sales for growth. They did that with the iPhone Plus, grabbing all the people that wanted an iPhone but didn't get one due to lack of a large screen.

There are no huge conquest sales left, everyone has what they want. All that's left now are replacement sales--and replacement sales by their nature aren't growth.

Anyone who has been paying attention knows that the end to sales growth has been expected for a long, long time and also that Apple kept it up far longer than anyone thought they could.

Some have suggested a cheap model. That's true--a cheap model would lead to more sales growth. But there's no margin on cheap models, so that growth doesn't lead to additional profit. And even worse, it dilutes the brand's value--it's like suggesting that Rolex make $20 watches to sell at Target.

 

[AxiomaticRubric]

DeclineGate

Wouldn't be happening if Jobs were still alive!! Shameful!!

prove it

 

[melendezest]

....Apple dropped computer from their name in 2007.

I know. They were beginning to diversify then into "more that traditional computers".

I maybe should've left that out. I guess I'm not done with the 5 Stages yet and anger still pops up?

 

[Nefilim]

This doesn't surprise anyone, they were well aware of the iPhone 7 being a filler.

 

[Ries]

Going to reverse very, very soon.

Q1 2017 will easily be the record holidays quarter for Apple.

The stock is ridiculously underpriced with its 13 PE.

The thing is, that Apple is a one trick pony. ~60% of their income is the iPhone and like 85% is tied to iOS. All it takes to burst Apple's bubble is a very bad iPhone or someone coming up with a hot nextgen 'Iphone 1' product and Apple earnings/stock is toast. Investors aren't willing to pay for that risk, that is why it has a low P/E.

 

[Nefilim]

New Macs and the Samsung debacle will help the next quarter's earnings.

However - if the increase isn't dramatic - one would wonder how they would have faired without Samsung's debacle.

I wonder how many people that got burnt by the Note 7 disaster really did switch to Apple instead of going for another Android device? Would it have a noticeable impact on the iPhone sales?

 

[melendezest]

I don't think any of you blaming headphone jacks or lack of Steve (or whatever) understand that unsustainable iPhone sales growth had to end some day. It's the inherent nature of unsustainable growth.

Growth was really high at first because zero people had iPhones, so you could sell an iPhone to everyone. Once everyone who wanted one had one, growth tanked and Apple could only rely on expanding markets for growth. Once Apple expanded to all markets, that only left conquest sales for growth. They did that with the iPhone Plus, grabbing all the people that wanted an iPhone but didn't get one due to lack of a large screen.

There are no huge conquest sales left, everyone has what they want. All that's left now are replacement sales--and replacement sales by their nature aren't growth.

Anyone who has been paying attention knows that the end to sales growth has been expected for a long, long time and also that Apple kept it up far longer than anyone thought they could.

Some have suggested a cheap model. That's true--a cheap model would lead to more sales growth. But there's no margin on cheap models, so that growth doesn't lead to additional profit. And even worse, it dilutes the brand's value--it's like suggesting that Rolex make $20 watches to sell at Target.

I agree, but what about competition? Like, stealing cutomers away from the (significantly larger) Android and PC user-bases?

I think that there is still (quite a bit of) growth opportunity in the area that Apple has completely neglected. Maybe now that iOS sales have leveled out they'll start paying attention.

 

[theitsage]

This drop in revenue will not break Apple. Not even close.

That said, I feel Apple is stumbling in the dark looking for a vision because they lost their visionary.

I believe Tim and Jony have (foolishly) made "Fashion" Apple's new vision. They took Steve's comment "Don't do what I'd do, do what's right" completely the wrong way and threw out the SJ product rulebook. Steve made awesome products that were "fashionable" because they were both powerful and elegant. Tim and co. have put (feminine-focused) fashion first and foremost.

This is why they took "Computer" out of their name. This is why Angela's there. This is why we (used to) get $15K watches and rose-gold-anything. This is why we got the (still sexy, but) ridiculously outdated tube Mac "(non)Pro". This is why "thinner-is-better" in Apple-land. This is why the UI and everything else is so. Damn. Feminine. No popping-the-hood. No tinkering. No MUSCLE anywhere (except on the wasted-on-iOS-device Ax chips). Nothing against the above, except that that is ALL THEY OFFER (although the all-black iPhone is a good start in the right direction, but again, color is still a "fashion" component).

Hopefully Apple will begin rectifying the situation this Thursday. I'm honest-to-goodness hoping for something good.

But I doubt it. My disappointment in post-Jobs Apple has already gone through all five Stages of Grief and I'm squarely in the Acceptance stage.

Steve Jobs' vision was to build products that amplify human abilities.

Tim Cook and Jony Ive build products that make people look fashionable.

 

[AxiomaticRubric]

People started buying Macs back in the days of Microsoft because the Apps were great and so the OS. And the OS is still great. However, it has stalled like os 9 did. Instead of bringing new features and pushing the envelope Apple has done what has lead many companies to fail -> They optimize features rather than inventing them due to lack of vision.

When iTunes came about no one had to read a manual to use it. It would behave as one would expect it to. Today, not a living soul on this planet having never used iTunes would be able to play a song without watching tutorials on youtube. They have optimized iTunes to a degree where you actually have to learn HOW to use it. That is something that was NOT the case earlier...

Same with Messages in iOS 10. Before one could send messages and with the push of a very obvious button one could add a photo. Today nothing about messages is obvious and one has to push two buttons that aren't obvious to attach a photo..

iOS camera - used to be great and still it if you turn back time 6 years. Every time I turn to iOS to take a photo, which is about 10 times a day, I get angry and frustrated because the camera is dumb as bread. And such goes deeper. Imagine I would have 10 great experiences with iOS per day, the possibility of me recommending Apple and iOS to others would increase exponentially. Same goes for other people I know.

Whereas 5 years ago, I would be an avid Apple-Recommendor... Today, I doesnt even cross my mind to recommend Apple. And SUCH is a clear indicator of a dangerous future.

The visions vanished with Steve Jobs. Tim Cook who had been working along side him many years was passed the steering wheel. But only in lack of finding someone else. Which compared with Jobs is a diff. task. Had Cook been as good or greater than Steve, he would have taken the reigns prior to him passing... Cook taking the reigns of Apple is like the pilot passing on the Steering wheel of a Boeing 747 to the first Steward. Latter I have no doubt did a great job in the overall operation of flying from a to b. But just because he was able to accomplish that task does not make him able to fly not to mention land that plane

When it runs out of fuel it will crash unless someone is able to really take the reigns and land it safely. Right now Apple IMO is a plane flying on fumes of the past-visions of someone who is unfortunately no longer with us ;(

Enough with the Steve worship. He is not a god and if you recall he had his share of failures. I'm not saying Tim is perfect either. The fact is it takes an entire company working together well, to do well. Could Apple do better? Of course. But the figurehead can't do it all alone.

 

[LizKat]

I wonder how many people that got burnt by the Note 7 disaster really did switch to Apple instead of going for another Android device? Would it have a noticeable impact on the iPhone sales?

Maybe but it won't show in this earnings cycle.

 

[bjet767]

Steve Jobs's vision was to build products that amplify human abilities.

Tim Cook and Jony Ive build products that make people look fashionable.

Total urban myth.

Steve Jobs had a marketing genius within him and somehow knew what would make people desire his designs. He made the earbuds white in a time when they were black; he said a notebook should be light and portable and showed the world it would fit in an envelope; he made the PDA turn into a phone and portable pad device (iPhone and iPad); he set it up so you could buy songs you want for 99 cents each (in the end pay more for your music) and play them on a small device; he made it easier for developers to write code for Apple devices.

However, it is always the software which "amplifies" human abilities and Jobs made it stylish to be seen with an iDevice that uses that software (they weren't just for business).

He even gave us white Apple stickers to replace those family (or fish) stickers in the back corners of our cars, mini vans and SUVs.

Yep Steve Jobs was brilliant and you (so did I) bought into his vision and contribute to $40+ billion in sales!

Cook, he's just trying to keep it going in a maturing market.

 

[ActionableMango]

I agree, but what about competition? Like, stealing cutomers away

That's what the "conquest sales" are that I referred to. But I'm not sure a lot could be done there.

To put the shoe on the other foot--what could the competition do that would get you to switch phones? For me, I cannot think of anything realistic. It would take something huge like selling a premium top model phone for $100.

 

[OllyW]

This is why they took "Computer" out of their name.

You can't blame Tim and Jonny for that, it happened 9 years ago while Steve was still the boss.

 

[LizKat]

I agree, but what about competition? Like, stealing cutomers away from the (significantly larger) Android and PC user-bases?

I think that there is still (quite a bit of) growth opportunity in the area that Apple has completely neglected. Maybe now that iOS sales have leveled out they'll start paying attention.

It still seems to me more likely to show up in the applications side too rather than just in hardware. The walled garden approach and curation of apps can have quite an appeal. Speaking of iOS they need to prove they can get the content delivery for Apple Music still closer to the "have it your way" stage and imo they are not there yet, but it's better than it was after a couple iterations now.

 

[MacsRgr8]

Sooner or later, not innovating anything new and putting out just an updated itterations of old products, will show on your revenue stream. Tim Cook needs to go before he drives whole company back into the pit that Steve Jobs got it out of. I still dont understand why so many people support Tim Cook, the man is no visionairy or a leader, he's a logistics wizard with a mouth full of "magical" and "groundbreaking" words that enabled him to remain at his position for such a long time.

Tim is definitely not the person who can innovate. He surely is not a product guy. He does not have vision.
When he came to Apple he was the perfect guy to generate needed cash (eliminate excess stock etc). Like you said, he is a logistics wizard who absolutely must be part of the C-level @ Apple.
He also creates markets for Apple by making huge deals with major companies and even governments. He is someone who is very necessary and hard to replace @ Apple.

But... I'm afraid he is not the CEO Apple seems to need and most of us want to see:
A product-guy;
A visionair;
A ruthless and charismatic leader.

But, TBO... whoever can be the person to fulfil such a colossal task.. (i.e. truly replace Steve)?

We have to admit we are not going to find a Steve-2.
Whoever is, or will be, the CEO of Apple, we cannot expect Apple to become as we once knew. Apple is, and will stay for some time, a corporate giant trying to stay ahead (or keep afloat).
As usual for very large companies, this means being evolutionary (not revolutionary), keep building on your current successes (not create new ones) invest in new markets, etc. Be generally predictable. Shareholders like that.

Luckily there still is no other manufacture I would buy my devices from.
Personally I'm waiting for a huge update to the iMac.

 

[melendezest]

That's what the "conquest sales" are that I referred to. But I'm not sure a lot could be done there.

To put the shoe on the other foot--what could the competition do that would get you to switch phones? For me, I cannot think of anything realistic. It would take something huge like selling a premium top model phone for $100.

I already did (switch to Android).

The straw that broke the camel's back was control over my device, but superior, more flexible hardware keeps me there too.
[doublepost=1477417603][/doublepost]

You can't blame Tim and Jonny for that, it happened 9 years ago while Steve was still the boss.

Agreed and already addressed in an earlier post...

 

[EightyTwenty]

Good job, Timmy Boy!

 

[Krayzkat]

2017 Apple buy Tesla & Elon Musk takes the helm........

 

[allanfries]

Poor babies!

 

[Shoestring1981]

Think about it.. there's just nowhere for Apple to grow / at least in the hardware world. As I've said elsewhere, there's really nowhere the computer can go. The computer can't get smaller or lighter, can't display finer images with more colours, can't really get faster (they can, but other than gamers, no one will notice), can't have more storage, etc. It's been like this for a few years now. A computer from 6 years ago will serve almost anyone today just fine. That was unheard of in the 80s, 90s, and 00s.

The same is true about iPads, iPhones, etc. The changes were seeing aren't revolutionary, so much as fashionable, gimmicky or incremental. How many times can you reinvent the phone? The only improvements I can think of are aesthetic. I bought my iPad mini 3+ years ago, still use it everyday, and see no need to replace it.

The TV/media is a place where things could grow, but without content producers on board, growth is at a deadlock. That's not Apple's fault. And it's something Jobs might have been able to do better (getting producers on board)..

So what's left? Software and services... we're literally entering a post-hardware world. Apple's bread and butter has always been hardware... whereas software was always a weaker point. We're seeing a transition right now. Which obviously upsets the hardcore apple fans, since apple's appeal to them has always been the hardware.

I know a lot of people like to harp on Tim Cook... but he's doing everything right as far as I can tell. He's laying down the foundation for the future: AI, home, health, etc. These are all software problems. The hardware problems are already more or less solved. Google gets this and currently has the advantage and Apple is the underdog here. But there's potential for Apple to get even bigger... but we're only seeing their opening moves. Time will tell.

 

[Cactii]

While this won't break them, I hope they will get back being APPLE.

 

[thekeyring]

Remember that year they broke all records for profit in a single quarter? You all said 'money isn't everything, products matter' ... now look at the comments!

What did you expect? Apple to get the 'most profitable quarter of any company ever' record from now until kingdom come?

 

[spherox]

I forever hope for the day that Apple falls. Not because I don't like them or their products, but because they made so much better products when they were a smaller business. Right now, they're making so much money off the brand that they feel no need to include any real innovation to sell their products.