Apple Has Already Reached 10 Million iPhone Sales in 2008?

[Matti]

So nobody knows what IMEI numbers actually means? This analysis is so pathetic, even if it comes just from a Apple-fan armed with spreadsheet program rather than professional source.

Few things to consider:

1. IMEI codes are not serial numbers. Phone manufacturers receive these numbers GSM association and BABT

2. There is no way of knowing how number blocks have been distributed between manufacturers or how manufacturers use those codes.

There is absolutely no guarantee that Apple has 10 million sequential IMEI numbers, or that Apple would use them sequentially even if it had such large sequential code block.

Here's examples: There's two iPhones with some IMEI codes, lets say 10000001 and 20000001. This causes the machead with spreadsheet program to announce Apple has sold 10 million phones.

but

codes 10000002 to 20000000 could just as well have been allocated to Samsung or Nokia or distributed between Nokia and Samsung or whatever.

or

Apple had that 10 million IMEI code block, but decided to distribute codes among it's different factories in China. So lets say Apple had 2 factories in China and those factories have produced 2 miilion phones in total. Apple gave first the 5 million codes to factory A and next 5 million codes to factory B. There's still plenty of free codes, but Apple needs to open new factory because demand has gone up.Now Apple opens third factory, but instead of redistributing old IMEI codes Apple gets new codes that start with 20000001. Only 2 million and one iPhones woud actually have been produced.





Shorter version:

Checking IMEI codes on random phones is absolutely horrible way of estimating how many such phones has been produced.

 

[twoodcc]

wow, now this is great! let's hope that they really did make the mark

 

[DipDog3]

That is some great news...

AAPL stock really took a hit, but is it up on this news?

 

[QCassidy352]

I'm a little surprised. I'd say I still see a good 2 or 3 first gen iphones for every 3G I see. So where are all these 3G buyers?

(yes I know the statistical value of my own anecdotal experience is zero... I'm just surprised I haven't seen more 3Gs if they're selling so well).

 

[The Governor]

That is some great news...

AAPL stock really took a hit, but is it up on this news?

you know I was just gonna bring that up. Beat me to it.

I don't understand, it seems like every time apple releases new stuff the apple stock takes a hit. You would think otherwise

 

[BongoBanger]

1. IMEI codes are not serial numbers. Phone manufacturers receive these numbers GSM association and BABT

Incorrect. The RPI for the iPhone is 01 which is the US and therefore the PTCRB, not BABT which is the UK and which would use 44.

2. There is no way of knowing how number blocks have been distributed between manufacturers or how manufacturers use those codes.

Again incorrect. The next six digits represent the model and revision identifier which in this case is that of the iPhone 3G's various revisions.

The logic used is horrible for other reasons but not the ones you give.

 

[jasonfj]

When is Apple's next earnings report?

 

[IJ Reilly]

I've been intesting for several decades, and I've seen this type of thing hundreds of times before. It's important to realize that as long as the fundamentals of the company are doing well, the stock price will eventually catch up. Warren Buffet made his fortune by buying companies whose stock prices have been down, while the actual company has been doing great - then, eventually, the stock price catches up, and you make a fortune. Apple stock will definitely come back up to 200. Just be patient and remember that we invest for the long-term and Not for the short-term.

I've been trying to convince myself of this for years, but I'm finding it harder and harder to believe. We've been hit with huge losses twice in less than ten years. Is the market still a safe place for individual investors? I think the case is becoming progressively more difficult to make.

When is Apple's next earnings report?

October 14, I believe.

 

[.:R2theT]

A goal of 10 million iPhone sales in 2008 has been Apple's stated goal when first announced the iPhone in January 2007.

The goal that Jobs stated was 10 million by the end of 2008. That would include 1rst generation AND 3G iPhones from both 2007 and 2008. I am sure they have well surpassed 10 million and will probably announce it at the next product release.

Apple is usually conservative about its estimates. But Wall Street bases things on its own expectations. That's why Apple will always go up and down despite the fact that it almost always is beating its own estimates.

 

[rhett7660]

October 14, I believe.

Image that...... Hmmmmm

 

[Adjei]

I'm shocked people are willing to hand over so much money without really checking that it lives upto expectations and does what they want.
They've done well with the iphone, but I think it's proper shoddy compared to what other devices have been doing for years - amazing what a swanky looking case, fluid interface and decent(ish) browser can do, or am I missing something?

Every phone has it's pros and cons, just like the iphone. All those buyers who bought the iphone had a reason for buying it and it still selling well. No phone is perfect, you get the phone you feel fits your needs.

 

[Digital Skunk]

....

I remember hearing about that in a previous post about the same thing. The the guys doing the counting are counting phones manufactured and shipped and not actually sold.

My question though is whether there is even a way to tell these "sold" iPhones constitute new customers, since anyone with a broken iPhone knows they have to buy a completely new one, and many users I know are on their 3rd iPhone simply because there is no insurance or replacement plan.

Others I am sure have simply upgraded to the 3G from the original, so how many new customers has Apple given AT&T?

 

[andy721]

Freeze!

SO is that a good thing or a bad thing sense the Apple Stock lost 6-8billion dollars.

 

[Saladinos]

So nobody knows what IMEI numbers actually means? This analysis is so pathetic, even if it comes just from a Apple-fan armed with spreadsheet program rather than professional source.

Few things to consider:

1. IMEI codes are not serial numbers. Phone manufacturers receive these numbers GSM association and BABT

2. There is no way of knowing how number blocks have been distributed between manufacturers or how manufacturers use those codes.

There is absolutely no guarantee that Apple has 10 million sequential IMEI numbers, or that Apple would use them sequentially even if it had such large sequential code block.

Here's examples: There's two iPhones with some IMEI codes, lets say 10000001 and 20000001. This causes the machead with spreadsheet program to announce Apple has sold 10 million phones.

but

codes 10000002 to 20000000 could just as well have been allocated to Samsung or Nokia or distributed between Nokia and Samsung or whatever.

or

Apple had that 10 million IMEI code block, but decided to distribute codes among it's different factories in China. So lets say Apple had 2 factories in China and those factories have produced 2 miilion phones in total. Apple gave first the 5 million codes to factory A and next 5 million codes to factory B. There's still plenty of free codes, but Apple needs to open new factory because demand has gone up.Now Apple opens third factory, but instead of redistributing old IMEI codes Apple gets new codes that start with 20000001. Only 2 million and one iPhones woud actually have been produced.





Shorter version:

Checking IMEI codes on random phones is absolutely horrible way of estimating how many such phones has been produced.

The iPhone has a serial number which has nothing to do with the IMEI number. Of course, as a phone, it also has an IMEI.

 

[happydude]

another reason why this it's a great time to be buying AAPL. the longterm focus for apple is incredibly positive. hey, the short term is positive, but the market sucks. no one is sure when the market will settle down, but eventually it will and the price will climb again. *calling broker*

 

[Di9it8]

What about the people who are on their 2nd or 3rd phone? They would count for iPhones manufactured, but not necessarily sold. This is assuming they did not receive refurbs, but new phones.

Its common in the phone market that returned phones are refurbished and then used as replacement stock, so unless you ask for a new phone the likelyhood is that you will receive a refurb unit.

 

[cgiffin]

That's 10M by the end of 2008

When the iPhone was announced Steve Jobs said their goal was to sell 10 million by the end of 2008. That included the sales in 2007. So they have surely past that number.

 

[kironin]

well I finally caved and bought a 3G last Thursday and took it on long road trip.

No dropped calls through five states and I am now addicted to the google maps App with GPS.


I signed up for the free trial of MobileMe and I have to say that has been a complete bust. the "genius" said that they didn't show up immediately because I had so many on my macbook (not that many by a long shot) and wait an hour or two. Well five days later they still haven't showed up, so I just synced by good ole' usb in a few seconds.

I will be canceling that. waste of time.

 

[Digital Skunk]

well I finally caved and bought a 3G last Thursday and took it on long road trip.

No dropped calls through five states and I am now addicted to the google maps App with GPS.


I signed up for the free trial of MobileMe and I have to say that has been a complete bust. the "genius" said that they didn't show up immediately because I had so many on my macbook (not that many by a long shot) and wait an hour or two. Well five days later they still haven't showed up, so I just synced by good ole' usb in a few seconds.

I will be canceling that. waste of time.

I have a feeling it really was just your mailbox. Most people have the worst inboxes that I have ever seen.

 

[boss1]

when the stock gets into the 50 range, i'm gonna start buying it up

Don't hold your breath. Even if the current turbulence in the economy continues, I believe aapl bottomed out already. A buyers window of opportunity is between today and October 14.

 

[itcheroni]

Don't hold your breath. Even if the current turbulence in the economy continues, I believe aapl bottomed out already. A buyers window of opportunity is between today and October 14.

Just to be clear.

Oct 14 - possible Mac updates

Oct 21 - Aapl earnings report after market close

 

[varchar]

It really pisses me off as a shareholder that the stock is tanking. We are going to beat the 10 million estimate by a good number. I spoke with Apple Store employees over the weekend at 3 different stores in the area. They said they still sell out daily of iPhones and haven't noticed any decrease in mac sales. Keep in mind these stores were so packed I had a hard time flagging down a salesman.

I hear you buddy.... its totally irrational. Apple is a amazing company (not only for the products, but for their financials). Their cash-flow is superb, they do not even rely on the banks... They can buy the banks if they wanted to (18b in cash they have.. some figure like that...)....This macroeconomic situation is killing them for no reason.... stock dropped over 50% in past few months... NOT NORMAL!!!

(sorry to make this a stock reply...)

But back to reaching the iphone sales mark... the reality is that even in tough economic times, Apple fans will buy Apple products even if they do not have $ to put food on the table... WE love ya Apple!!!!!

 

[IJ Reilly]

Wow, somebody thinks something should be normal. Guess what? This is the biggest worldwide economic calamity since the Great Depression. Nobody but nobody knows what will happen next, or how to fix it, and anybody who claims to know should have their ears cut off and shoved into their back pockets.

Apple is a great company, but we could be in for some very, very tough times ahead.

 

[Rybold]

I've been trying to convince myself of this for years, but I'm finding it harder and harder to believe. We've been hit with huge losses twice in less than ten years. Is the market still a safe place for individual investors? I think the case is becoming progressively more difficult to make.

October 14, I believe.

It's not that it isn't a time for individual investors, it's that this is a time for EXPERIENCED investors. Back in 1999, I used to day trade, and I made about 500% during that year, and I can tell you, IT'S VERY STRESSFUL and you MUST be an experienced investor! Right now, is a time of A LOT of volatility, and for those that are not experienced, just "hold" and wait out the storm. For those that are experienced investors, you already know what to do. Think of investing like driving a car: when you first get your license, sure you can turn the keys and put it in drive ... but it's after you've been driving for a few years that you have experience.

I believe it is Oct. 14.

For the person that asked why the stock was up ... there was a rumor released at 1:50pm that Apple now has a new manufacturing process for their laptop computers that will save the company money. After the stock being down so much recently (due to the false Steve Jobs heart attack rumor), investors jumped in to buy the stock. That does Not mean that You should "jump" in and buy the stock immediately (unless you are an experienced investor). However, my long-term advice to the inexperienced investors is that Apple is a great company and it's stock currently does not represent that, and it is an Excellent buy for the long-term investor.

 

[MappleLeaf]

So you're saying that 1 in every 6 people in the UK has an iPhone?

I am an Apple man through and through. I have a iMac, a first and second gen Touch, about 3 Nanos (not 4th gen yet) and a shuffle.

I have held off on the iPhone because I have a blackberry for work. So before continuing this read please note I am not slagging off Apple...


...but how can this figure be correct? The official government national statistics of residents living in the UK is 60,000,000. So are Apple saying that 1 in 6 UK residents have an iPhone? I work in Canary Wharf (London's financial district second to the City). I travel on the train and tube and have seen maybe 8 or 9 iPhones in use in the Year+ since the launch of the first generation? I don't believe this 10 million sales rubbish at all.