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Apple in Talks with Sony about Blu-ray Drives

Digital Skunk said:
As is typical in a MR thread, there is a lot of wisdom and sound arguments floating around...
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And I thank you, sir, for your generous and very kind words.

Mike, I love the breakdown that you gave a few posts back, especially the part talking about the comparison of Floppies and DVDs, and bringing up the all too forgotten life of the Zip Drive, and flash.
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Ok, Digital Skunk, here's a "blast from the past" trivia question for you. And yeah, you could probably go look it up on Wikipedia or something, but see if you can get it by yourself...

What removable cartridge media came out before SyQuest? For one point, name the storage system. For two points, also name the company. And I'll give you a hint: even if you didn't use their first round of storage products, you did use their later product line.
 
I definitely would purchase an iMac if blu-ray drives were introduced! Combination of that would be nice with a 1080P output of the iMac monitor.
 
As many here have said, I can't wait for the day when I can download my content directly from the internet. At the moment though, there just isn't a chance in hell my internet company would allow that with the size of such files.

I have a PS3 and think the BR is FAN-FREAKIN-TASTIC
 
jragosta said:
So, IOW, you have absolutely no evidence to back your claim that BR is the last optical disk format we'll see and the 'evidence' you did provide doesn't say anything like what you claimed it said. And the fact that there are already experimental formats to supercede BR doesn't mean anything - those companies are throwing money away just for kicks. After all, Mr. SPG knows everything about the industry and his 'conventional wisdom' is all that matters - even if he can't support it with evidence.
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Yep, you hit the nail on the head. Since we're talking about trends and future development nobody can prove facts that haven't happened yet. We can only look at what has happened, and what is happening now and make predictions based on that. My observations are that BluRay has had a low adoption rate so far despite the hundreds of millions invested in pushing it. Consumers options are much different now than when DVD debuted making it harder for BluRay to win large adoption, and also impacting the current sales of DVD. These observations lead me to believe that optical discs will not increase their market and will most likely continue to decline.
With the increase in effectiveness:cost of other formats and methods, optical discs are less likely to remain competitive. With no new optical formats announced, hinted at, or otherwise in a reasonable state of development, how can you believe that there will be another one targeted at mass consumption? Do you know something the rest of us don't? Please share, cite references, and prove that there is another optical disc format viable on a consumer level and has been adopted by more than 65% of US households.
As far as conventional wisdom, it's not mine, but by definition held by a group. The consensus is that DVD will linger for some time, BluRay will be here as the domain of the major studios and as a one-off delivery medium, but it's widespread adoption and success is not guaranteed. Eventually both will become marginal as all modern formats eventually do.
If you'd like to discuss this on the merits, please explain why you think my opinion is so wrong rather than just repeating that I can't prove it. Of course I can't prove it because it is an opinion, and because it is a prediction of the future. Do you think that in 20 years we'll still be getting the majority of our entertainment on shiny 5" discs? Do you think everyone will have a BluRay player and recorder in 2 years? If so, why? What current realities suggest that the status quo will remain in place despite consumer behavior and technology shifting so quickly?
 
MikeTheC said:
And I thank you, sir, for your generous and very kind words.


Ok, Digital Skunk, here's a "blast from the past" trivia question for you. And yeah, you could probably go look it up on Wikipedia or something, but see if you can get it by yourself...

What removable cartridge media came out before SyQuest? For one point, name the storage system. For two points, also name the company. And I'll give you a hint: even if you didn't use their first round of storage products, you did use their later product line.
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I guessed first, then looked it up online.... yeah... I'm not that old. But my guess was IBM, I was wrong when I read somewhere in the sea of Wikipedia words that it may have been Seagate.... but i have a good feeling that I am wrong.
 
SPG said:
Yep, you hit the nail on the head. Since we're talking about trends and future development nobody can prove facts that haven't happened yet. We can only look at what has happened, and what is happening now and make predictions based on that.
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OK. Let's look at what has happened in the past.

VHS started expensive and slowly caught on and became very inexpensive.
CD started expensive and slowly caught on and became very inexpensive.
HDTV started expensive and slowly caught on and became very inexpensive.
DVD started expensive and slowly caught on and became very inexpensive.

So what past experience indicates that BR is going to remain expensive and that no new optical technologies will ever be developed?
 
jragosta said:
OK. Let's look at what has happened in the past.

VHS started expensive and slowly caught on and became very inexpensive.
CD started expensive and slowly caught on and became very inexpensive.
HDTV started expensive and slowly caught on and became very inexpensive.
DVD started expensive and slowly caught on and became very inexpensive.

So what past experience indicates that BR is going to remain expensive and that no new optical technologies will ever be developed?
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DVDA started out at a reasonable cost and never caught on.
SACD started out at a reasonable cost and never caught on.

You're absolutely right that most technologies get cheaper when they become more widely adopted and the volume of production increases. That's a bit more than half the picture here. Some of the reasons that I don't think that BluRay will be able to drop as dramatically in price as DVD has is that the license fees associated with the technology are much higher, the comparative level of complexity of the components is greater (even factoring advances in the last 10 years), BluRay is already subsidized in the PS3, and the installed base of HD owners is smaller than the near 100% of people who could use DVD. Right now we just saw a jump in real prices on BluRay players with HD DVD bowing out. Over time we'll see those prices come back down and drop further, but do you really think we'll see $29 BluRay players in a couple years?
Even though HD sets have dropped substantially in the past few years they're still several times more expensive than old tube TVs and thus out of reach for a lot of consumers, and thus keeping BD in a smaller market. The other struggle BD has for acceptance is that there are a lot more options for viewing content. You can get by just fine without a BD player and a lot of people will. In two years if BD hasn't captured a large market the stores will not give it a large square footage and the death spiral begins. If BD does catch on where better than 75% of HD owners are invested in it and willing to shell out to own discs, then it's another story. Right now WalMart is shrinking the size of it's DVD area because fewer people want to own DVDs. If that behavior carries over to BD, then the format will have real viability issues. No matter how good a format is if the consumers don't buy it, it's over.
From a CE company perspective, BD is having a tough time so why would you rush out another optical format to compete with it? There is no demand for it at all and unless it would be several magnitudes better/cheaper than all the other non optical formats. You wouldn't be able to make it stick. Consumer habits (especially of early adopters) have changed greatly in the last few years. More time online (including TV online), more time on games, less time in front of the TV, and even then more rentals and less desire to own the content. Flash memory, hi speed internet, cable VOD, are all advancing at much faster rates than optical discs, so why is it so hard to believe that the future lies there instead of another form of DVD or BD? Unless there is a new TV standard that becomes widely adopted and that requires more storage than can be delivered on a BD or DVD, there is no reason to develop a new optical disc format.
 
SPG said:
DVDA started out at a reasonable cost and never caught on.
SACD started out at a reasonable cost and never caught on.
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Both have been entangled in a format war. Neither format provides an advantage over CDDA for the average user; they're both niche products for audiophiles with multi-k€ equipment. Furthermore, neither format provides a new, larger storage medium for computers.

BluRay, on the other hand, has won the format war. It provides larger discs for computers and other devices (and unlike HD DVD, BluRay has working writers). And a few people even have "HD ready" or "Full HD" TVs that can take advantage of the better resolution. Of course, DVD is "good enough", so updating to BluRay is not a high priority.

I don't think that there will be a comsumer Super-FullHD standard. Cinemas haven't been providing better resolutions for decades. The next big leap is probably 3D.
 
MikeTheC said:
And I thank you, sir, for your generous and very kind words.


Ok, Digital Skunk, here's a "blast from the past" trivia question for you. And yeah, you could probably go look it up on Wikipedia or something, but see if you can get it by yourself...

What removable cartridge media came out before SyQuest? For one point, name the storage system. For two points, also name the company. And I'll give you a hint: even if you didn't use their first round of storage products, you did use their later product line.
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Iomega Bernoulli? ;)
 
3247 said:
Both (SACD & DVDA :ed) have been entangled in a format war. Neither format provides an advantage over CDDA for the average user; they're both niche products for audiophiles with multi-k€ equipment. Furthermore, neither format provides a new, larger storage medium for computers.

BluRay, on the other hand, has won the format war. It provides larger discs for computers and other devices (and unlike HD DVD, BluRay has working writers). And a few people even have "HD ready" or "Full HD" TVs that can take advantage of the better resolution. Of course, DVD is "good enough", so updating to BluRay is not a high priority.
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Very true. BluRay does have more of a noticeable quality difference than SACD and DVDA did outside of the most high end gear, but the similarity in that BluRay does require a more expensive HD set puts it in closer company to the niche audio formats than Sony would like to admit. I expect BluRay to get a better level of acceptance than DVDA and SACD, but the question is still how much more?
I doubt that computer use will become nearly as ubiquitous as the CD or DVD where you can hand one to just about anyone and expect that they can play it.
 
BRLawyer said:
Iomega Bernoulli? ;)
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Nailed it one, sir! :)

Here's a piccy of it for you folks:

s_p_8031_1.jpg
 
Speaking of "dead" formats and DVD, did you know that DVD masters are still delivered on DLT tape? What used to be a fairly common backup media is now living out it's retirement as a niche delivery format.
 
Decrepit said:
Huh. I didn't know that Bernoullis were Iomega boxes. I thought they were a different company entirely. My dad had to use Bernoullis at work and lock the cartridges in a safe at night. (nuclear weapons lab).
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Interesting. Now, one can speculate how many cartridges your dad's lab had, but it's amazing to stop and think that software to control nuclear devices (and very probably designs, schematics, etc.) all could be made to fit on what I believe were 40MB cartridges!

How times have changed! (Of course, I go back far enough to remember when an 400K floppy disk could hold Apple's MacOS, MacPaint, and still had free space left over for a user document or two.)
 
Sony says Blu Ray is the last optical format.

http://www.electricpig.co.uk/2008/09/01/sony-blu-ray-format-can’t-be-improved/

Blu-Ray’s conquered the HD format war, but its design and technical limitations mean the current format is as good as it’ll get. Sony says it’ll be the last optical format, after which, we’ll move way from shiny discs altogether.
See, it’s all down to the limitations of lasers and the discs themselves.
Speaking at IFA, Taka Miyama, Sony’s product strategy manager for home video marketing in Europe told us: “Blu-Ray is the final format for the optical disc. We don’t have a shorter laser. In the future, if we have a physical media format, it will change physically. It won’t look like an optical disc.”
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SPG said:
Sony says Blu Ray is the last optical format.

http://www.electricpig.co.uk/2008/09/01/sony-blu-ray-format-can’t-be-improved/
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That's a misquote - Taka Miyama says BR “Blu-Ray is the final format for the optical disc. We don’t have a shorter laser. In the future, if we have a physical media format, it will change physically. It won’t look like an optical disc.”
BR disc has nearered the wavelength buffers (previously, it was for the want of a laser that is now in blu ray players - it didn't exist that long ago). Doesn't mean other things can't happen.

The hologram discs etc have been touted and retouted. I thought that one of the major companies had said that BR wasn't round much longer anyhow, and that it was getting updated?
 
^ only in a Mac Pro or with an external. unless people want to upgrade their iMacs and MacBooks to Blu-ray which not many people would do. so we have to wait for Apple.
 
Considering I've not installed any software from disc in..well, a long time, the need for Blu-ray in a computer is only down to each individual, perhaps in a Mac Pro, but otherwise I can't see the point unless you really must have it for films in a MacBook Pro with the relevant resolution.
 
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