Apple Increases Mac Production, Decreases iPod?

[britabroad]

New iPods not worth the upgrade

The problem with the ipods is, unless yours is broken, they're not worth upgrading too - especially if you're looking for a mass storage device. The Classics have a horribly slow interface and no new features - not better sound quality, no radio, no recording facilities... just the same old same old.

 

[ChrisA]

Everyone may already have an iPod but it's inevitable that they will want the next generation. Once quantity demand has been established then quality demand follows. If you've owned a first generation iPod or 128k, you may know what I mean. I don't think the iPod is dead by any stretch.

Not "dead" but entering a period of flat growth. It is like the market for refrigerators. Everyone already has a refrigerator. The only reason new ones are sold is either (a) Kids grow up and move into their own place or (2) the old 'fridge breaks or otherwise needs to be replaced. So while there will always be a market for new refrigerators we don't see the CEO of GE going on stage at "Refrigerator World" talking about how sales have doubled every year.

And yes, even if every iPod user upgrades his iPod every few years that is still "flat growth" because the total number of iPods in use does not change except to follow demographics.

 

[twoodcc]

i guess everyone has an iPod now?

seriously, very good news about Macs. not so good about iPods. but i think Apple will be okay though

 

[jouster]

Not "dead" but entering a period of flat growth. It is like the market for refrigerators. Everyone already has a refrigerator. The only reason new ones are sold is either (a) Kids grow up and move into their own place or (2) the old 'fridge breaks or otherwise needs to be replaced. So while there will always be a market for new refrigerators we don't see the CEO of GE going on stage at "Refrigerator World" talking about how sales have doubled every year.

And yes, even if every iPod user upgrades his iPod every few years that is still "flat growth" because the total number of iPods in use does not change except to follow demographics.

However, the revenue per iPod has grown substantially. So they have earned more money for Apple despite sales growth leveling off.

 

[drb6]

The problem with the ipods is, unless yours is broken, they're not worth upgrading too - especially if you're looking for a mass storage device. The Classics have a horribly slow interface and no new features - not better sound quality, no radio, no recording facilities... just the same old same old.

Agreed, partly. I think the currently line of iPods absolutely leaves something to be desired. I need an iPod badly and have for a few months but I won't buy any of the current options. Nano is too small capacity/screen wise and classic is too slow and the Touch is not big enough for my needs. Of course this is only me, but compared to the past few years I feel like Apple doesn't have as perfect a variety of products/pricing in the line.

 

[Mac21ND]

Reading the linked article would tell you that isn't just a simple decrease after the holidays - that is a given. It is a decrease of what they expected even in a traditionally slow quarter:

"Current production expectations for March imply 5-10% Y/Y unit decline, versus firm's expectation for 5% Y/Y unt growth during the March quarter..."

If you read the iLounge article MacRumors points to, the decline is based simply on analyst checks production - nothing more. They cite a decrease against Apple based on Apple's forecast of having 5 percent growth year over year. In the article, there's no basis for a decline other than these "checks" that analyst do (which may or may not be correct, sometimes it's nothing more than calling a few stores and checking if they have something in stock), which is why typically analyst predictions or forecast are hardly reliable.

 

[sterlingindigo]

Not "dead" but entering a period of flat growth. It is like the market for refrigerators. Everyone already has a refrigerator. The only reason new ones are sold is either (a) Kids grow up and move into their own place or (2) the old 'fridge breaks or otherwise needs to be replaced. So while there will always be a market for new refrigerators we don't see the CEO of GE going on stage at "Refrigerator World" talking about how sales have doubled every year.

And yes, even if every iPod user upgrades his iPod every few years that is still "flat growth" because the total number of iPods in use does not change except to follow demographics.

Perhaps if an iFridge could connect wirelessly to iTunes, I might be in the market. In happened this way in my family; I bought a 30gig 5.5 gen iPod, then the older kids got shuffles, 6 year old get's an 8 gig little phatty, now the older kids gotta have video too, heaven forbid it's silver. I traded up to iPhone (which I use at the gym) and will be getting the 3G 16gig version this year. Kids will end up with iPhones or iNanoPhone's before too long. It'll never end, Apple's got their hooks into us!

 

[Works4Me]

I have a 2 gig iPod Nano and 30 gig 5g video. I usually use the Nano at the gym, and I'd likely have already purchased a Touch, but I'm waiting until they get to 32 gb. Once they, I'll get one, and the kids will inherit the 30gb iPod. So, while the percentage of first time buyers may decrease, as long as they keep improving the product, a lot of us will keep coming back. I do, however, think that as other players catch up (in terms of a product ecosystem) Apple may have to pricer their products more aggressively.

 

[GQB]

Stand-alone music players are of course a dead end. Why this is causing such hand-wringing is beyond me. iPod features will become just that... features on far more capable devices, touch being just the first.
As soon as I saw that the sales numbers being gabbed about for iPod sales didn't include iPhones, I knew that this was a nonsense story. Every iPhone IS an iPod.

 

[notjustjay]

Not "dead" but entering a period of flat growth. It is like the market for refrigerators. Everyone already has a refrigerator.

This is also precisely the position that Microsoft is in with both Windows and Office sales. Virtually everyone has a PC already running Windows, so Windows sales are relatively flat. And virtually all of those PCs have Office installed. People aren't going out in droves to upgrade either of those.

 

[Mindflux]

Not "dead" but entering a period of flat growth. It is like the market for refrigerators. Everyone already has a refrigerator.

Sales like these rely on people coming into their 'own', being old enough to buy appliances (or iPods) for themselves. There are always folks that will need to buy a Fridge or an iPod (not necessarily out of necessity).

It's not a case of "everyone already has one".

 

[deathshrub]

Maybe now they'll pay more attention to OS X.

 

[gkarris]

I guess they are starting to become a computer company again Or perhaps the standard iPod has run its course and it is going to be al phones and touches from here on out...

Still waiting for that 160 Gig hard-drive based Touch...

waiting...

 

[seashellz2]

well APPLE has 8% of the market.
a consulting firm here recently said APPLE could DOUBLE it market share by 2010 (Browser share?)
iPod: market saturation + poor economy-bought by those of limited income (read: mostly kids and teens)
Desk/laptops appeal to the more well off=who havent yet been hit by the coming PRIME meltdown. according
to Real Estate and Financial sources Ive read. Not to mention a million ARM resets this spring going from a teaser 6% to a mindboggling 15%
APPLE shouldnt waste money on YAHOO, but rather hunker down until the storm passes-if it does.
Or at best GOOGLE

 

[nagromme]

Interesting how math works. "Reduced from estimates" gets shortened to just "reduced"... and suddenly outside guesswork being wrong becomes an iPod nosedive

 

[Mindflux]

Interesting how math works. "Reduced from estimates" gets shortened to just "reduced"... and suddenly outside guesswork being wrong becomes an iPod nosedive

That's just it, estimates are nothing but estimates.

All they did was 'reduce' their estimate and translate that into the assembly line.

 

[rockthecasbah]

Great news for the Apple computer numbers. Not very surprising given the consumer popularity of everything Apple these days. Computer sales, particularly on college campuses, are really help bring health back to those divisions, and the iPod's success has encouraged many more converts.

As for the iPod numbers, it's nothing that should be surprising. The iPod can only boom and boom for so long before sales decline. It still sells well i'm sure, but so many people have iPods these days that it really is much wiser to put manufacturing efforts towards the computer end than it does the iPod.

 

[bluedoggiant]

Still waiting for that 160 Gig hard-drive based Touch...

waiting...

I hope 80GB, that would be a fat iPod.

 

[JesterJJZ]

Everyone already has an iPod...demand was bound to slowdown sometime.

 

[Jim Campbell]

Exactly. Why a production increase prior to the holidays and a decrease post-holiday's would surprise an analyst is beyond me.

Stop the Presses! Hold the Front Page!

++Consumer Electronics Manufacturer Experiences Fall-Off in Demand During Period After Christmas!++

Pictures at Eleven ...

Cheers

Jim

 

[JGowan]

I am not surprised. In fact - thats exactly what I expected. Here is why: Apple has a very huge market share regarding the iPods. There is not a lot room to grow. And I would expect that the overall demand for mp3 players is shrinking just because everyone who wanted one already has one. C'mon - who has today no iPod or no mp3 player from another brand?

While I believe that currently there's not necessarily "a lot of room to grow", I believe that Apple could release a new iPod sometime this year that would make a lot of people decide to upgrade. I drop $200-300 on a new gadget at the drop of a hat. If there's a lot of value, people will upgrade -- people will also be more inclined to buy them as gifts.

 

[blairwillis]

I look to sites like MacRumors in hopes of getting an accurate report/summary of an article without going to the original article myself. Unfortunately the journalistic approach is not always on point. The problem here is in the journalist's reporting of the article, or their summary of it being not entirely accurate. To say:

"Meanwhile, iPod production numbers are said to be significantly reduced by 10-20% from early January's estimates, suggesting slower demand than expected for the popular music player."

Is misinterpreting the original article, or at least poorly conveying its meaning. In fact, the original article is making interpretations of "demand" based on numbers, and the MacRumors note is further interpreting that interpretation.

It would be better to simply state that the linked article makes some statements as to iPod/Mac supply and demand, instead of further dilution.

Decreased demand due to a softer market was discussed in Apple's quarterly conference call, and is one of the primary reasons the stock slid off its relatively "stable" position in the 170s down to the low 130s (closing at 131.65 today). (That and an inflated value and ridiculous anticipation of MacWorld and the earnings report the following week.) Reporting on related systemic events such as this might increase the value of a MacRumors article instead of leaving it as a "he said, she said" report of another rumors site's report on an analysts interpretation of some numbers. I heard that 70% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

The last paragraph of the MacRumors article also sways a bit in mentioning market share and then browser share in a way that does not tell me anything of real importance. Are we talking "Safari" browser share on Macs plus iphones plus Safari on Windows or what? Let's break this out into a separate article and put some meat in it.

I appreciate MacRumors, but sometimes I think we all need a good nudge to keep at the top of our game.

 

[brad.c]

Not really sure if these figures mean something in the real world, but I'm glad to see focus renewed on the Mac platform. Maybe MacWorlds of the future will be about just that.

Although AppleWorld sounds fun. Like Wallyworld, but with better merchandising.

 

[clima08]

does anyone know if prices one the macbook pro or macbook will drop due to the release of the air?

 

[ashoka8350]

Banc of America

Bank of America and Banc of America are two different entities. Bank of America is the regular Bank while the Banc of America is an investing company.