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You guys that are calling the iPad revolutionary and a game changer are seriously deluded by the RDF. First off, the $500 entry price is still too high for most people. I just ordered a refurb Lenovo Netbook for $175. Granted, it will be no iPad but at least it will support Flash and it has a 160gb hd. No Flash support means that the web will be a much emptier place (and I'm no fan of Flash). Maybe in two years when HTML5 takes over, then the iPad will allow for full web experience.

Don't get me wrong-- I would buy one if I could justify the price. $500 for 16 gigs of memory just isn't enough. I want to be able to store my music collection, home movies, purchased movies, ripped movies and apps on the device and not have to keep syncing them up to my Mac. To do this I would need at least 32-64 gigs of ram and I cannot justify spending $700 to 800 on a entertainment device. Those with too much disposable income can...

$175 is unrealistic for the feature set that most desire. Once apple makes the move to the cloud with their NC data center, memory will become a thing of the past.
 
Actually since it only costs $200 to make if initial sales are bad they are more likely to lower the price.

You're right. I had that backward. And that's probably part of Apple's strategy. See if they sell at the higher price and cut it down immediately if they don't.

Still, I think the pure shock value of selling it for $299 right off the bat would have generated so much excitement, it would have guaranteed a smash hit. As it is, we'll see. I'm guessing it's going to be a tepid response, maybe a million in the first month.
 

Nope. Sorry to burst your bubble, but no way.

I use the RDC app on the iPhone to connect to my employer's network and do sysadmin type things when it's required, but let me tell you, it's a pain in the ass. It's great when I'm on the road without a computer and get a call for something I can fix quickly, but it's not something I'd want to spend a lot of time in.

Here's the main problem: you're using a touch-based device to manipulate a device that requires a dedicated keyboard and mouse. Think about that for a while. It doesn't take much to figure out how that quickly becomes a nuisance. ("I need to hold down the apple+option key." "I need to right-click.") Remote access on a touch device is good for quick access and small jobs, but nobody is going to work that way.
 
I really hope this is right..... In the past if you pre-ordered a product from apple online did you have it at your house on the day it launched in stores?
 
My guess is that the ipod touch eventually gets bigger. Around 5" diagonal like the forthcoming dell phone. I still dont quite get having a touch as opposed to an iphone, but that is clearly just my issue given the current sales pace.

I don't use my cell phone much at all, totaling just a handful of hours over the course of a month. As currently offered by AT&T, owning an iPhone would be just ridiculously overpriced for someone like me. We (my wife, my daughter, and I) are currently using a family cellular plan from T-Mobile that costs us a total of $75/month, and we don't even push the limits for that.

Now if the iPhone comes to T-Mobile, and they will sell it like they do the Nexus (meaning I can get it no matter what plan I'm on), I may very well get the iPhone in that case. I would have no objections to paying for a monthly 3G data plan, because I'd probably use it. But I don't want to be required to couple that data plan with a very expensive calling plan which I'm just flat out not going to need.
 
I really hope this is right..... In the past if you pre-ordered a product from apple online did you have it at your house on the day it launched in stores?

That's how it's worked for the past several pre-orders: 1G iPhone, 3GS iPhone, & Snow Leopard. I'd imagine they'd offer the same for the iPad.
 
Nope. Sorry to burst your bubble, but no way.

I use the RDC app on the iPhone to connect to my employer's network and do sysadmin type things when it's required, but let me tell you, it's a pain in the ass. It's great when I'm on the road without a computer and get a call for something I can fix quickly, but it's not something I'd want to spend a lot of time in.

Here's the main problem: you're using a touch-based device to manipulate a device that requires a dedicated keyboard and mouse. Think about that for a while. It doesn't take much to figure out how that quickly becomes a nuisance. ("I need to hold down the apple+option key." "I need to right-click.") Remote access on a touch device is good for quick access and small jobs, but nobody is going to work that way.

As a Linux admin, I don't share your pain on this. My main problem with the SSH app I use on my iPod Touch is the screen is too small for a decent xterm-ish window, even taking pinch/zoom into account - so something like "top" is a bit of a pain. But aside from that (and the iPad will address that shortcoming obviously), running a shell session from my Touch works remarkably well - and on Linux most everything is done from the command line, not a GUI.
 
I have a bunch of pdfs I have to read, and I can't wait to be able to do that on my new 3G iPad. I hate printing out hundreds of pages, and sitting at a laptop for hours on end reading is really uncomfortable. As much as I'm looking forward to the iPad for GPS, Internet, Email, and so on, what I'm most excited about is the eReader functionality. iDisk plus 3G makes the iPad the perfect eReader wherever I'm at.
 
I did think of that, but you know what group of people will become even bigger? The people being born now who will grow up without much need of a mouse. Humans will never outgrow fingers, but they will outgrow abstractions that stand between your fingers and what you want to do.
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I agree that in the future we will eliminate such abstraction, but in my humble opinion, a touch screen won't replace a mouse any time soon, if ever.

No, this is not just the RDF talking, this is a realization I first had when I began to notice I was using my iPod touch more and more and my MacBook Pro less and less. A tablet-sized device will move this trend even further in my life. The fact that there will be iLife apps for the iPad (something that all by itself should shut up the "it's just a big iPhone" crowd) is something I can't wait to experience.

Now I imagine someone who is not as technically literate as I am. I know how to program these devices. I know file systems inside and out. But I'm gravitating toward these new devices. Someone who finds PCs a mystery or a tool that they are forced to use (and this represents -- by far -- the majority of humanity), is going to really gravitate toward an inviting device that works in ways they know intuitively. A device for them, finally.

You are making the assumption that everybody else thinks like you. Technical skills are not relevant (in the way you present your argument at least). Computers are used for a lot of things, in fact, they are used for virtually everything. The problem that I see is that the iPad is a solution only for a small subset of those things; mainly web browsing and entertainment. The iPad is not even marketed as a desktop replacement.

I'm sure a writer won't trade his notebook to write on a iPad (although you could use the external keyboard). I'm sure a researcher would have problems dealing with the lack of multi tasking. I know I wouldn't be able to program IN an iPad.

$175 is unrealistic for the feature set that most desire. Once apple makes the move to the cloud with their NC data center, memory will become a thing of the past.

Apple? Try Google and Amazon and whoever came with the idea of cloud storage first. (I love Dropbox btw.)
 
Don't get me wrong-- I would buy one if I could justify the price. $500 for 16 gigs of memory just isn't enough. I want to be able to store my music collection, home movies, purchased movies, ripped movies and apps on the device and not have to keep syncing them up to my Mac. To do this I would need at least 32-64 gigs of ram and I cannot justify spending $700 to 800 on a entertainment device. Those with too much disposable income can...

I have no intention of syncing my music collection to my iPad- that's what streaming apps like Simplify are for (granted, you'd need the 3G iPad to really be able to take advantage of that most of the time). But I'd rather use the gigabytes on my iPhone or iPod to store music- seems like a waste of space to duplicate them yet again on the iPad. But with that said, i think 32 gb is more realistic in terms of space for what I plan to do with my iPad.
 
I have no intention of syncing my music collection to my iPad- that's what streaming apps like Simplify are for (granted, you'd need the 3G iPad to really be able to take advantage of that most of the time). But I'd rather use the gigabytes on my iPhone or iPod to store music- seems like a waste of space to duplicate them yet again on the iPad. But with that said, i think 32 gb is more realistic in terms of space for what I plan to do with my iPad.

This is something that I've been think a lot. Is there a solution that would let me stream my library to my iPad and let me browse the web or do other tasks?
 
This is something that I've been think a lot. Is there a solution that would let me stream my library to my iPad and let me browse the web or do other tasks?

The solution i'm talking about, Simplify, doesn't run in the background as it's just a regular iPhone app (but it does pretty nicely let you play any non-DRM music from iTunes from your home mac).

But- there might be some way to do http streaming of songs from iTunes library and have that play from Safari on your iPhone, which would be able to play in the background. But i don't know if there is a really polished way to do that...
 
I did think of that, but you know what group of people will become even bigger? The people being born now who will grow up without much need of a mouse. Humans will never outgrow fingers, but they will outgrow abstractions that stand between your fingers and what you want to do.

Then why do painters still use a brush on their canvases?
 
Computers are used for a lot of things, in fact, they are used for virtually everything. The problem that I see is that the iPad is a solution only for a small subset of those things; mainly web browsing and entertainment. The iPad is not even marketed as a desktop replacement.

I'm sure a writer won't trade his notebook to write on a iPad (although you could use the external keyboard). I'm sure a researcher would have problems dealing with the lack of multi tasking. I know I wouldn't be able to program IN an iPad.

You are right that the iPad is mainly for entertainment and web browsing. But those two functions are something that EVERYONE uses. Writers, engineers, programmers, researchers -- they all have specific requirements that utilize specialized tools. For that, desktops/laptops would remain the prefered computing device for the immediate future. But when those people with their specialized computing requirements want to relax after work, an iPad would be perfect for that. At the same time, the iPad could be a primary computer for someone who only does chats, emails and web surfing, for whom a full computer is overkill. So I believe it's a device that can be enjoyed by a wide range of people, both tecchies and non-tecchies. And I don't think the fact that the iPad is not, and wasn't meant to be, a full computer or a desktop replacement is a problem. I think its strength will be that it does a few things, but does them very well.
 
As the actual launch approaches, many are hoping and speculating that there may be some unannounced software features for the iPad that might not have been finished at the time of the media event.[/url]

i hope for apple's sake it's Flash, otherwise there's just simply no point.

No offense, but someone ought to frame this comment. It's going to look so wrong before this year is out.

I don't think a lot of us have caught on yet to how big a change the iPad represents. I'll simplify it:

The mainframe era gave way to the mini era.
The mini era gave way to the PC era.
We are now about to see the PC era give way to the tablet era.

People who say this is just a big iPod touch have missed the point. The iPod touch was a baby step toward this new era that proved the point. This is going to be massive. Fan boys can't see it because this is going to be directed at the non-fan boys. The 80-90% of the world market that do not get computers, never have, and now need not in the future. They might have one in their homes, but they barely know what to do with the thing other than what their relatives showed them.

That 80-90% of the world market is suddenly going to get computers the way we all got it when PCs came out.

And no, this isn't because of the form factor, or else Microsoft would have already won this market. No, this is going to be a new era because of the software. This is going to be a new era without a mouse, without file systems, without the things we think of as a PC -- because it won't be a PC. It's a new era. Just watch and see.

*sigh* / *shakes head*
 
Maybe Apple will be really generous and offer, for a small fee that is, a touch friendly version of SL that is able to run you favorite Apple software. At least that is what I am hoping for.
 
As a Linux admin, I don't share your pain on this. My main problem with the SSH app I use on my iPod Touch is the screen is too small for a decent xterm-ish window, even taking pinch/zoom into account - so something like "top" is a bit of a pain. But aside from that (and the iPad will address that shortcoming obviously), running a shell session from my Touch works remarkably well - and on Linux most everything is done from the command line, not a GUI.

I use SSH extensively too (it's every bit as useful for Macs as for Linux--just wish Windows would catch up already) but I was speaking in terms of the typical iPad user which is what the author speculated about in the article. I don't think people will be remote desktop type connections on iPads will be a killer feature. It's just not a good fit. Instead, I think we'll see more and more touchscreen versions of applications like we saw in the iWork demo.
 
You're right. I had that backward. And that's probably part of Apple's strategy. See if they sell at the higher price and cut it down immediately if they don't.

Still, I think the pure shock value of selling it for $299 right off the bat would have generated so much excitement, it would have guaranteed a smash hit. As it is, we'll see. I'm guessing it's going to be a tepid response, maybe a million in the first month.

I don't remember what the component costs were exactly, but it was somewhere in the mid to high 200s for the 16GB version which sells for $499. There is absolutely no way on the face of the planet that Apple could sell a machine with component costs of mid-to-high 200s for $299. The cost we're looking at is just direct materials. That's only a small fraction of the total cost of the machine. There is labour costs, shipping costs, recouping R&D costs, package, selling and administration costs, and manufacturing overhead costs. Then there's the cost of warranty, etc. Just because something costs $260 or w/e Apple can't sell it at $299 and say we made $40 on this thing. Does not work that way. If a 16GB costs $260 in components, there is probably at least another $100-150 of other costs to close the margin. Realistically, Apple won't have more than 10-15% NET margin on these things. Of course that could dramatically increase for the 64GB models (I'm not sure).
 
Say hello to the new Apple TV. Only Mac fan-boys will buy :p
Our company is over 750 people currently using only Windows based PC's. Most all of the partners started using iPhones. Now those same people are interested in the iPad. IT is going to buy about a dozen of em to see how they work out. Believe me, our IT department is about as far from being Apple fanboys as anybody can be. And I'm guessing this won't be a unique situation...
 
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