Apple iPod Supply Below Wall Street Shipping Estimates?

MacRumors

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Apr 12, 2001
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Mac News Network's ipodnn.com reports that investment research firm PiperJaffray issued a report today casting doubt on Apple's ability to reach Wall Street estimates of holiday season iPod shipments.

Reportedly, the iPod nano is in the shortest supply at third-party retailers and Apple is apparently holding inventory for its own stores at the expense of other retailers.

Based on its own models, PiperJaffray estimates 9.0 million iPod shipments in the December quarter, lower than other Wall Street estimates. PiperJaffray's research apparently included a survey of 10 Apple stores and 11 third-party retailers. Eight of the 10 had "full availability of all iPods".

While we do believe slight upside to our estimate is achievable, we do not expect Apple will be able to ship the number of units that are already anticipated in some Street models.
 

Josh396

macrumors 65816
Oct 16, 2004
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Well my local Apple store had a full supply of iPods when I was just there. Maybe that's not the case now though. Although they may fall short of the predictions, it's still very impressive that they may sell 9 million in just December. It will be interesting to see if that increases if they can increase supply.
 

alms

macrumors member
Oct 16, 2003
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Boston
Stock Price Up?

The interesting thing to me was that the stock price was initially up 2% on this news. I mean, it's great that the iPods are selling so well, but saying that Apple won't be able to manufacture enough to hit Wall Street targets doesn't seem like good news to me.
 

LimeiBook86

macrumors 604
May 4, 2002
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Don't forget not everyone has bought their iPods yet. A lot of shoppers will probably wait until the last minute to run to the Apple store and pick one up...that is if the Apple store has any left in stock. I think Apple should be ok though, I bet these things are selling like hot cakes and they probably have a factory working 24/7 that's producing more as we speak. :p
 

kidA

macrumors regular
Jul 22, 2002
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Quartz Extreme said:
Hey, it's a good problem to have!
only insofar as it means that apple is selling a lot of ipods. but it is a pretty bad problem to have if it means that you might not meet your wall street estimates, which is what piper is saying. because that means your stock will fall. and that means your shareholders aren't as happy.
 

rockthecasbah

macrumors 68020
Apr 12, 2005
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thats rediculous, Apple shouldn't be saving the supplies for their stores, most people would rather go to a big chain like a circuit city or whatever and would rather settle for another mp3 player if it meant going for a 2nd trip...bad move.
 

Lacero

macrumors 604
Jan 20, 2005
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I would classify this as good news. :D Next quarter, probably 15 million iPods will be sold.

Here's to the Crazy Ones
 

kidA

macrumors regular
Jul 22, 2002
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alms said:
The interesting thing to me was that the stock price was initially up 2% on this news. I mean, it's great that the iPods are selling so well, but saying that Apple won't be able to manufacture enough to hit Wall Street targets doesn't seem like good news to me.
this is interesting because it's definitely somewhat counterintuitive. the long term effect of this news on the stock price is what's more important though. and if this news really turns out to be true as we get deeper into the holiday season, i would expect the stock to slip a bit.
 

Doctor Q

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Sep 19, 2002
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PiperJaffray remains positive on Apple, as reported by imacnn:

The firm also said it feels Apple will see a continuation of strong demand for both iPod and Mac products during the holiday shopping season. Moreover, analyst Gene Munster said 2006 is likely to be a more "robust" year for Apple. "The incorporation of Intel and introduction of new form factors will both likely lead to the launch of several new/updated Macs in 2006, more changes to the Mac lineup than were seen in 2005."
 

ibook30

macrumors 6502a
Jun 4, 2005
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"Apple is apparently holding inventory for its own stores at the expense of other retailers."

So I am guessing Apple makes more by selling ipods at Apple stores,,,,, and of course people are drawn into Apple Stores by the ipods siren song, and are crushed on the rocks of the Macintosh computers beautiful design and brillaint OS... so Apple will let folks go to a store and be disapointed (when tehy are out of ipods) but lets hope those folks go to the APple store to be seduced by the beauty and ease of use with the Mac line...

Just thinking aloud here.
 

Seasought

macrumors 65816
Nov 3, 2005
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Apple is apparently holding inventory for its own stores at the expense of other retailers.

Thus encouraging consumers to visit their stores (online and offline) possibly leading to more expensive purchases.

Makes sense to me.
 

Magicite

macrumors newbie
Jul 17, 2002
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Hmm

It'd be interesting to find out when they did their research.

:: reads article ::

OK, we know that most people buy stuff on the weekend . . . and they checked at the end of the weekend. Of course most stores don't have stock on, say, Sunday.

If every store had reported having stock, this article would instead say that iPods aren't selling very well.
 

~Shard~

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Jun 4, 2003
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This is one of those situations where Apple just can't win in the eyes of some of the media - if they can't meet demand, it's bad because they have supply issues, but if they have a lot of inventory, then iPod interest and popularity must be waning and this is also bad. ;)

I think this is a good problem to have, and I think Apple will do everything in its power to address these issues and get as many iPods out there as possible (while still maintaining quality control... :eek: ;))
 

barneygumble

macrumors 6502a
Apr 18, 2005
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I haven't been able to find a nano in oz for the last 2 weeks, evern the vidpods are in short supply and god help you if you want a black one;)

Do i think it is fair to hold stock for yourself NO
 

PDubNYC

macrumors member
May 14, 2003
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NYC
Josh396 said:
it's still very impressive that they may sell 9 million in just December.

It says December Quarter, not just the month of December. Strange way of wording it, but still I take it to mean a 3-month period. Lot of iPods nonetheless.
 

Sayer

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Jan 4, 2002
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Welcome to the world of self-fulfilling prophecies.

The "street" claims their model predicts a certain level of iPod sales, based on completely unknown data/metrics/analysis to us mere mortals. And when these numbers either fall short or surpass them the "street" pooh-poohs the results either way e.g. "Apple wont be able to sustain their previous growth rates, as witnessed by X quarter's results thus we downgrade the stock to Neutral or Sell or Hold or whatever nonsense."
 
Much as it's nice to hear that demand for ipods is enormous, this is bad news.

If wall street predicted the number of ipod sales to some number, and that number is accurate, than apple should be able to make that number. But instead, they underpredicted, and can't keep up.

If this ammount of demand hadn't been predicted, it would be good news-apples' got a hit on it's hands. But as it stands, apple could have known there would be a hit, and capitilized on it. Instead, they are leaving money sitting on the table.

Hopefully in apple's major purchase of flash memory they got a deal to shore up supply for the holiday demand, but of course they should not be doing so at the expense of getting a good deal in the long run.
 

WildCowboy

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Jan 20, 2005
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~Shard~ said:
This is one of those situations where Apple just can't win in the eyes of some of the media - if they can't meet demand, it's bad because they have supply issues, but if they have a lot of inventory, then iPod interest and popularity must be waning and this is also bad. ;)
Generally, I would agree. But Piper Jaffray has been one of the most optimistic in recent years when it comes to Apple's prospects. It worries me that they're the ones throwing up the warning flag. Quarter after quarter, they'd have the highest predicted iPod sales of any analyst, and Apple would meet that number. Now they're at the low end of estimates already and now have some concerns on top of that. It says nothing about the actual performance of Apple and its iPod sales (which are still doing fantastically), but it does appear that the hype surrounding Apple's stock may be surpassing reality.
 

SiliconAddict

macrumors 603
Jun 19, 2003
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Chicago, IL
Quartz Extreme said:
Hey, it's a good problem to have!
Umm no not really. You guys understand that Apple isn't meeting demand and to a certain extent there are going to be some shoppers out there who will shrug and go get some other MP3 player.
This is actually pretty messed up, not unexpected considering the supply shortage of chips for the Nano, but messed up nonetheless. I would rather see supply on the shelves while meeting the street's expectations.