dontmatter said:Hence, what I was trying to say is-when the majority of wall street predicts it, and it's RIGHT, then it looks like they've got a pretty good system for that particular situation, rather than just dumb luck. If wall street can predict it, then apple had better be able to, because it has more and better data, and it's fortunes depend upon it doing so.
The other interesting dynamic that has fascinated me for some time is that analysts will do everything in their power to make the same statements all of the other analysts are making, regardless of whether they believe it or not. If you're wrong, and everybody else is wrong along with you, it's not much skin off your nose...everybody got fooled. But if you're wrong and you're the only one, you're just a bad analyst and might have to start worrying about your job. So make sure you say whatever everyone else is saying.
It's how the analysts stay in business. They are wrong a remarkable amount of the time (witness the dart-throwing chimp studies). But because they are pretty much all right or all wrong together, it's tough to single any of them out as particularly good or bad. And because people like the idea of being able to hear from someone who "knows" something, they all keep their jobs.
Now, if we could just find that 216-digit number that controls the stock market...