I've already said this once, but to repeat and note it so I can say "I told you so" with proof, I expect this is exactly where things are headed, and it's not necessarily bad.
More specifically: The reason behind creating the original Mac in 1984 was to have a computer that was an appliance. Though they've in some ways gotten closer over the years, no novice user will honestly think of an OSX based computer in the same category of "automatic function" as their car or TV remote control. The iPhone is the first product that approaches that level of intuitive simplicity.
I would bet that within 5 years, give or take, Apple will have three categories of machines (four if you count servers):
Essentially, if you break down computing into "things with tiny screens", "things for people who just want it to work", and "things for the people who create the apps and media used by the other two groups", that's how it shakes down. This doesn't bother me--half the time I, even as a pro user, just want it to work, and don't need all that horsepower. And it'll be a heck of a lot easier to set my parents up with a computer when it really IS an appliance.
And here's why Apple will continue making "pro" (new definition) MacOS-based computers, and servers: They need to use something themselves.
Apple wants to be in on the content-creation end of things--media and app programming. Both for 3rd party and in-house--they aren't about to start using Linux or Windows to program iPhone apps and the OS itself, nor will they recommend that to other developers, so to do that they need a computer/OS that we currently think of as a "real" computer. Hence the MacOS lives on, and probably tools like FCP as well, just in a different role.
As for servers, Apple almost certainly wants to fill their massive new data center with their own hardware and OS. Hence, they'll keep making the big iron for themselves, if nothing else, and the margins are good on selling XServes to others, so why not (same thing happened with Keynote, right?).
Depending on how hard they go "cloud" they might not need a "home" server, but I wouldn't be all that surprised to see them push hard into that space as well (the Mini Server is already almost there). They might even fork the server into "home" and "pro" versions, packaging the home version as an appliance to set up as the hub for all your non-pro devices.
I might be wrong, but I'll betcha this is where we end up. And, hey, so long as they keep making a "Pro" OS for people like me, I'll be happy to see us get there.
More specifically: The reason behind creating the original Mac in 1984 was to have a computer that was an appliance. Though they've in some ways gotten closer over the years, no novice user will honestly think of an OSX based computer in the same category of "automatic function" as their car or TV remote control. The iPhone is the first product that approaches that level of intuitive simplicity.
I would bet that within 5 years, give or take, Apple will have three categories of machines (four if you count servers):
- Mobile devices, like the iPhone and Touch, that use something similar to the current iPhone OS
- Consumer devices, taking up the same market space as the iPad, ATV, MacBook, and low-end iMacs, which will run a more advanced, powerful variant of what we now call the iPhone OS.
- "Pro" devices, which run the more traditional MacOS, that hardware-wise will probably be MacBook Pro, Mac Pro, and maybe high-end iMacs.
- Servers, both for consumer and big-iron use, which are the current XServe and Mac mini.
Essentially, if you break down computing into "things with tiny screens", "things for people who just want it to work", and "things for the people who create the apps and media used by the other two groups", that's how it shakes down. This doesn't bother me--half the time I, even as a pro user, just want it to work, and don't need all that horsepower. And it'll be a heck of a lot easier to set my parents up with a computer when it really IS an appliance.
And here's why Apple will continue making "pro" (new definition) MacOS-based computers, and servers: They need to use something themselves.
Apple wants to be in on the content-creation end of things--media and app programming. Both for 3rd party and in-house--they aren't about to start using Linux or Windows to program iPhone apps and the OS itself, nor will they recommend that to other developers, so to do that they need a computer/OS that we currently think of as a "real" computer. Hence the MacOS lives on, and probably tools like FCP as well, just in a different role.
As for servers, Apple almost certainly wants to fill their massive new data center with their own hardware and OS. Hence, they'll keep making the big iron for themselves, if nothing else, and the margins are good on selling XServes to others, so why not (same thing happened with Keynote, right?).
Depending on how hard they go "cloud" they might not need a "home" server, but I wouldn't be all that surprised to see them push hard into that space as well (the Mini Server is already almost there). They might even fork the server into "home" and "pro" versions, packaging the home version as an appliance to set up as the hub for all your non-pro devices.
I might be wrong, but I'll betcha this is where we end up. And, hey, so long as they keep making a "Pro" OS for people like me, I'll be happy to see us get there.
