I can't reconcile Apple shipping a laptop that can't drive one of their external displays at full resolution - only a scaled-down 4k image.
Essentially Already done .
2017 MacBook
“… up to 4096-by-2304 resolution at 60Hz on an external display, both at millions of colors. …”
support.apple.com
2015 MacBook 3840 x 2160 .
Sure relative to the then comatose 2011 Thunderbolt Display ( 2560x 1440 ) that worked . However, the LG Ultrafine 27” outclassed those. ( Apple took to ‘ backseat driving external displays for a while with LG shipping one-port-wonder displays with no buttons ).
There was a 24” ultrafine , but at this point that is far more Apple completely walking away from that market and committing to 100% third party solution providers.
And the XDR blew those resolutions away in 2019 . The Studio display didn’t come back into scope either (with continued larger screen skew )
The cheapest display Apple has lists for $1,599 . The A18pro is to shoot for a price in the $500 range which is
three times cheaper than that . Who limited by a $600 budget is going to run out and buy a $1,500 dispaly . The display here is the tail wagging the dog.
[ the LG 24”
‘ The
4K UltraFine display is now $524, a $175 price cut from the original price of $699. ’
A day after the first 13 and 15-inch MacBook Pros with Touch Bars began preparing for shipment to customers, Apple and LG's UltraFine 4K Display has begun shipping. Shipments are expected to arrive next week, with one MacRumors forum member noting November 15 as their delivery date. The...
www.macrumors.com
$500 + 524 = $1,024 is very substantially different affordability than $500 + 1600 = $2,100 ]
The core, root cause problem here is that Apple has zero ‘affordable’ external displays . Resolution mismatch doesn’t matter if average user can’t afford the external display.
For folks on a tight budget if can hook to a 4K TV ( that own already ) is probably the most likely match . Most will use laptop standalone. ( even more affordable ) .
That’s why I'm thinking: why not offer the new MacBook with multiple chip tiers? A base model built around a cheaper A18 Pro or A19 Pro, and then - true to Apple’s usual upsell playbook - an upgrade path to an M4 or M5.
The MacBook Air likely isn’t going away. If want to pay more , then just buy that model. M4/M5 can be bought now.
It is unlikely Apple is going to release a new MacBook that is aimed at heavy fratricide of the MBA sales.
I think this is likely aimed at new sales that are the $300-700 market that is mainly Chromebook and Windows laptops now. EDU k-12 apple is being crushed versus an over a decade ago . There is lots more folks doing MS Office on web interface and Google Workplace,
( same reason have the ‘entry’ iPad and then iPad Air and Pro above that)
Mediatek and eventually Qualcomm SoCs going into affordable chrome/windows model will eat away on the number of folks Apple can peel off those platforms.
And Apple needs another produce to put Ann Pro SoCs so they can sell them longer.
It would scratch that itch for everyone dreaming about the return of a 12-inch MacBook, while still keeping the entry price low.
Not going to be return of 12 inch MacBook that brought new tech like the butterfly keyboard .
Aimed at a different price point.