So, they earned another ~20 net, payed dividend ~3-4, added 7 in net position. This means they spent ~9 billion on buybacks.
Next 90 days, I expect 20-25 billion for buybacks.
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Apple Lowers Revenue Guidance for Q1 2019 Citing 'Fewer iPhone Upgrades' Than Anticipated
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So, they earned another ~20 net, payed dividend ~3-4, added 7 in net position. This means they spent ~9 billion on buybacks.
Next 90 days, I expect 20-25 billion for buybacks.
And it took two months at the end of 2018 for Chinese consumption to dramatically crash.
When did you spot it?
Your inputs are correct in regards to the net, dividend and leftover, but remainder is not necessarily spent on buybacks.
I’m hoping for at last double that on buybacks this quarter, maybe $50B.
Take a look at this article here: https://stratechery.com/2017/apples-china-problem/
It was written in 2017, so it took a year to see the problem be more visible. Perhaps the current US/China sanctions was the catalyst, but people should stop pretending that the decline was not happening in the first place.
I am not saying apple is doomed, but you do know every big company, or even countries, or kingdoms or whatever, they don't collapse overnight right??????
that's why there is a saying it takes 3 generations to waste all the wealth. Tim Cook is in the 2nd generations and the foundation or kingdom Steve job built. , I have no doubt can last maybe for another 5 years.
however if apple dont change its strategy and some of the way they do business, whose to say they won't be doomed.
there is still time, but doesn't mean it can never happen
Chinese consumption tax revenues for 2018 suggest otherwise. Likely politically inspired in the last two months of 2018. And likely to become far worse in March, should the trade tariffs kick in.
Tim playing the blame game.
"It's China."
"It's the battery program."
"It's the US government."
"It's the global economy."
"My dog ate my homework."
Maybe you should look at yourself there Timmy-boy. Fix pricing and stagnation and see how things turn out.
"It's China."
"It's the battery program."
"It's the US government."
"It's the global economy."
"My dog ate my homework."
Maybe you should look at yourself there Timmy-boy. Fix pricing and stagnation and see how things turn out.
Apple today published a letter from Apple CEO Tim Cook addressed to Apple investors announcing changes to the guidance for the first fiscal quarter of 2019.
Apple is expecting revenue of approximately $84 billion and gross margin of 38 percent, which is quite a bit lower than the estimate provided in November when fourth quarter earnings were revealed.
At that time, Apple said its guidance included expected revenue of $89 to $93 billion and gross margin between 38 and 38.5 percent. From Cook's letter:At $84 billion, Apple will see a year-over-year revenue drop in 2019 after pulling in $88.3 billion during the first fiscal quarter of 2018.
Cook offered up a number of explanations for the decline, some of which were mentioned during the fourth quarter earnings call.
Cook says that the timing of the iPhone XS, XS Max, and XR launch compared to the timing of the iPhone X launch last year will impact year-over-year comparisons, as will the strength of the U.S. dollar.
Apple Watch Series 4, iPad Pro, MacBook Air, and AirPods were constrained during the holiday season, leading to an inability to keep up with demand, as did economic weakness in emerging markets played a major role in the guidance change.
Cook says that customers taking advantage of "significantly reduced pricing for iPhone battery replacements" is also a factor that led to fewer upgrades in 2018. Starting in January 2018, Apple began offering battery replacements for $29 after a snafu that saw the company quietly introducing software that throttled the iPhone's performance without letting customers know. Apple faced multiple accusations that it deliberately slows down iPhones to encourage people to buy new devices, and while that may not be the case, offering cheaper battery replacements does appear to have impacted sales of new devices.
In China specifically, Apple saw a significant decline in sales, especially during the second half of 2018, which Cook says was in part due to rising trade tensions with the United States.Cook says that Apple saw "fewer iPhone upgrades" than anticipated as a result of the aforementioned factors, requiring the company to lower its expected revenue estimates.At the end of his letter, Cook highlights positive results from the December quarter, such as a growth in active devices, and increased revenue outside of the iPhone business in areas that include services and wearables. Apple, says Cook, is confident in its business and the "pipeline of future products and services."Cook's full letter to investors can be read on Apple's Newsroom site.
Update: Apple CEO Tim Cook sat down for an exclusive interview with CNBC, where he further explained the guidance revision. He said the shortfall is over 100 percent from iPhone and primarily from Greater China due to a slowing economy during the second half of 2018.
Cook says trade tensions with the U.S. put additional pressure on the Chinese economy, leading to less traffic in stores and lower sales. Cook also blamed fewer carrier subsidies, a stronger dollar, and the $29 battery replacement program, suggesting that those factors led to fewer iPhone upgrades than expected. Going forward, Cook says Apple will focus "really deeply" on things it can control, boosting future sales through trade-in program marketing, monthly pricing options, and more focus on in-store services such as data transfer.
Article Link: Apple Lowers Revenue Guidance for Q1 2019 Citing 'Fewer iPhone Upgrades' Than Anticipated
So having a $1500 price tag for a stupid phone isn’t the reason for slow down in growth Timmy?
That sounds like an interesting book. Is it on Apple Books?
Maybe you should educate yourself with respect to what's going on in the world with respect to trade. It's just a bit of reading.
and last time we had Steve jobs coming back...this time who knows..... ppl here dont seem to understand how fast a company can fall and nothing is unbreakable
lucky for apple, they still have strong loyalty base (sometimes even too loyalty) and the cash to really make a difference with core team minus the cook
[doublepost=1546490928][/doublepost]guess you can finally say
too many cooks in the kitchen
Very interesting article. I am thinking about subscribing already. Thanks for that.
It’s probably what is helping to slow the growth in revenue.
To be clear, that'll still be the second largest Apple quarter ever. Apple is an enormous revenue and profit generator, and will remain so for years to come.
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Little of column A, little of column B. The landscape has changed tremendously in the last several years. The playing field has been leveled.
Also, you're pointing to physical products, but where Apple has started excelling—and it shows in the numbers—is services.
I mean, good grief. For 2011 Q4—the last quarter with Jobs at the helm—Apple revenue was $28.27 billion. For 2018 Q4, Apple posted $62.9 billion. That's a growth of 122%, or 17.5% on average per year. Those are some absurdly good numbers. I don't think Apple could have kept selling iPhone 4S's all these years....
Nearly every company in history that has had a long ride undergoes a transition from innovator to executor. I think trying to judge Tim in 2018 on "vision" is a bit silly. If Apple fails to come up with a game-changing product in the next 5 years, then sure, it's fair to say that the magic is gone. In between the big home runs, though, there are dry spells. And as noted above, by the numbers, this is far, far, far from a dry spell.
YES!
Thank YOU
Going around anywhere in public has turned into the most dystopian f'ed up waste land of "zombies" walking around staring into something in their hand, running into things, doing it while also doing every manner of activity from driving to sitting in a hot tub to sex (I'm not joking)...
Dinners and get togethers become ruined with at least a couple people, usually more, simply unable to not interact with their phone in lieu of the people sitting IN FRONT OF THEM (you know - the whole point of having the dinner party?)
...and all the while we aren't sure these are even net positives on the whole (the devices and what's being done with them usually).
This "future" is all sorts of messed up right now.
Going from a 6Plus to an XS was like night and day. Face ID practically disappears. Especially when accessing apps and web logins. It's quite elegant. The new camera system is wonderful. The speed and power are pretty incredible. While I miss the headphone jack, I'm thrilled with my upgrade. There is so much technology crammed into these phones that we take for granted.
The author of Stratechery (Ben Thompson) writes very concise down-to-earth articles with easy to read visuals for the tech industry as a whole, and not just Apple specific.
Sometimes I disagree with his assessments, but he sometimes presents an angle that I didn't think about. It's also nice that he lives in Taiwan, so I get the latest daily article before I wake up
Who wants to bet IOS 13 will run slow as **** to force people to upgrade?
You a sub?
I used to be, but just got exhausted reading about Facebook so much (same with the Podcast with James that is sort of on half hiatus right now).
What's it like these days with the daily updates?
I totally get that one can't ignore FB when covering Tech like he does...I just wasn't getting the value I was looking for personally as I simply don't need (or care) to know the moment to moment on FB.
Actually Apple has no control over any of that. The real problem is in the WH and Apple won't be the only one feeling it in 2019.....
My 2 cents about this:
1. Latest IPhones too expensive with little innovation from previous iterations.
2. Budget conscious starting to question why the need to upgrade when their current phones are still 100% functional.
3. Too many iPhone variations, and new iterations every year. I still remember when there were only one or two iPhones released a year. Human psyche tend to dictate them to purchase the best of the best so they buy the more expensive one, but when there's a whole swathe of options and the flagship is so expensive, most will start looking elsewhere, or hold off buying it.
4. Very little innovative focus on other forms of computing (iPad, Macs) and again too many options - the iPhone was the goose that laid the golden egg but it's been flogged to death. And a spinning HDD in an iMac in 2019? Why would you even manufacture it?
5. Strong innovation and competition from other mobile phone manufacturers resulting in mobiles that cost a lot less with more technical bang for buck.
6. Wow factor gone from iPhones due to lack of innovation. There's no reason to show off your new iPhone these days other than bragging about you being able to afford it. (Let's face it, that's the only reason to show it off nowadays).
7. Slugging users an exorbitant amount for cables and other accessories when other manufacturers provide for free, or available at a cheaper cost.
My last iPhone was the iPhone 4 and it lasted me until the battery carked it. Moved onto Android cos iPhones started to become less cost effective and didn't need iTunes to transfer my music from my PC.
1. Latest IPhones too expensive with little innovation from previous iterations.
2. Budget conscious starting to question why the need to upgrade when their current phones are still 100% functional.
3. Too many iPhone variations, and new iterations every year. I still remember when there were only one or two iPhones released a year. Human psyche tend to dictate them to purchase the best of the best so they buy the more expensive one, but when there's a whole swathe of options and the flagship is so expensive, most will start looking elsewhere, or hold off buying it.
4. Very little innovative focus on other forms of computing (iPad, Macs) and again too many options - the iPhone was the goose that laid the golden egg but it's been flogged to death. And a spinning HDD in an iMac in 2019? Why would you even manufacture it?
5. Strong innovation and competition from other mobile phone manufacturers resulting in mobiles that cost a lot less with more technical bang for buck.
6. Wow factor gone from iPhones due to lack of innovation. There's no reason to show off your new iPhone these days other than bragging about you being able to afford it. (Let's face it, that's the only reason to show it off nowadays).
7. Slugging users an exorbitant amount for cables and other accessories when other manufacturers provide for free, or available at a cheaper cost.
My last iPhone was the iPhone 4 and it lasted me until the battery carked it. Moved onto Android cos iPhones started to become less cost effective and didn't need iTunes to transfer my music from my PC.
Suggesting that Apple are in trouble is hyperbole at the moment. The markets dictate that anything other than increasing profits is deemed to be failure despite Apple remaining a hugely profitable company with $237 billion in reserve. They still sell a huge number of products, just not quite as many as before.
It does suggest that we're seeing the first signs of problems with the global economy, a wider and significant slowdown. It's also possible that Tim's strategy of jacking up prices across it's product range with each minor iterative refresh to offset lower sales has run it's course.
Cut pricing or truly innovate to offer value.
It does suggest that we're seeing the first signs of problems with the global economy, a wider and significant slowdown. It's also possible that Tim's strategy of jacking up prices across it's product range with each minor iterative refresh to offset lower sales has run it's course.
Cut pricing or truly innovate to offer value.
I was re-reading Cook's quote "we believe there are other factors broadly impacting our iPhone performance, including consumers adapting to a world with fewer carrier subsidies"
Was there a significant change in carrier subsidies from 2017 to 2018? I'm not aware of any change at all. It seems to me like he was trying to somehow acknowledge the high pricing issue but trying to blame someone else, but in this case it seems BS since subsidies (or lack thereof) haven't changed in the past few years as far as I know.
Was there a significant change in carrier subsidies from 2017 to 2018? I'm not aware of any change at all. It seems to me like he was trying to somehow acknowledge the high pricing issue but trying to blame someone else, but in this case it seems BS since subsidies (or lack thereof) haven't changed in the past few years as far as I know.
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