Not having ads on this service seems unrealistic, as much as I hate ads it is just a given. especially if this service were to get really popular, companies would be kicking themselves for not negotiating advertising.
I looked it up a few years ago. National TV advertising revenue vs. number of U.S. Households = about $54 per month per household, meaning if every single home in America would agree to pay
$54 per month, they could wash all TV advertising.
Of course, that $54 would only pay to replace the revenue (subsidy) realized from the commercials. None of that pays for even 1 channel.
That written, now consider it against this...
$30-40 is asking a lot though, this needs to be a good channel list. People non-stop bitch at hulu for charging 8 dollars w/ads.
...and ONE problem with the al-a-carte dream with or without the subsidy of commercials gains great clarity. If $30-$40 is "a lot", we desperately need more subsidy revenue to make up for the difference vs. the approx. $73/month the average cable subscriber pays now.
And if we want al-a-carte, commercial-free without dramatically cutting the quality, breadth & depth of our favorite programming, the monthly bill needs to start at $54 for zero channels... which is more than "a lot". Too many al-a-carte dreamers think it can somehow arrive at something like Netflix $8/month pricing. But even Netflix is trying to up the pricing because even their model as is can't sustain without making more monthly revenue.
Instead, so many of us keep thinking we can get everything we want for very little but still expect the quality and volume of what we want to keep coming... the motivation for new shows we'll want to add to our "what I want to watch" list in the future to keep coming too... and we expect Apple to get theirs while the broadband pipe owners like Comcast, etc roll over and let Apple take it without making up for losses with higher broadband rates.
It's such a mess as soon as we dig in below the glow of the dream.