Apple May Drop Base $599 MacBook Neo as Chip, DRAM Costs Climb

[sw1tcher]

why don’t they just lower the starting SSS size?
If they raise price right now
It WON’T come back down next year 😢 and in this very very very very bad economy right now people will not simply buy it because they were already in a tight budget. My goodness the shortage is even more dire than 2020 ever was in my opinion.

Let me see if I get this right. The economy is "very very very very bad" and people have tight budgets. That's why they're all running out to buy $599 and $699 MacBook Neos which are now sold out.

However, if the price went up $50-$100, consumers would not buy them because the economy is "very very very very bad" and people have tight budgets.

🤔

 

[turbineseaplane]

Let me see if I get this right. The economy is "very very very very bad" and people have tight budgets. That's why they're all running out to buy $599 and $699 MacBook Neos which are now sold out.

However, if the price went up $50-$100, consumers would not buy them because the economy is "very very very very bad" and people have tight budgets.

🤔

Are you arguing that prices don't matter?
8-16% price hikes do tend to have an impact, all other factors being equal, especially on a product that's entire proposition is about the price.

 

[abowlby]

How exactly does a new color cushion the blow? Do they think people are that stupid?

😬👍

 

[Jumpthesnark]

Would love to hear more from the "I'm not buying a Neo until next year, when it will come with an A19 Pro chip, 12GB of RAM, and a backlit keyboard for the same price" crowd, to see how that's working out for them.

 

[turbineseaplane]

Would love to hear more from the "I'm not buying a Neo until next year, when it will will come with an A19 Pro chip, 12GB of RAM, and a backlit keyboard for the same price" crowd, to see how that's working out for them.

🙋‍♂️
(typing this from a Macbook Air)

Any amount of price hike on the Neo instantly makes a refurb MBA an enormously better product to consider.

 

[sw1tcher]

They shouldn't have released the lower version in the first place because 8GB of RAM with 256GB of storage is useless these days.

The $699 model also has 8GB of RAM. Guess Apple shouldn't have released that either, right? A 16GB / 512GB version would be $799. It wouldn't have sold as well as that price.

 

[abowlby]

why don’t they just lower the starting SSS size?
If they raise price right now
It WON’T come back down next year 😢 and in this very very very very bad economy right now people will not simply buy it because they were already in a tight budget. My goodness the shortage is even more dire than 2020 ever was in my opinion.

The real tragedy is how much folks bombed on those of us who pointed out what the play was with the Neo from the very beginning. Apple is boiling frogs.

 

[gummybear2026]

The Neo market will drop like a rock if they raise prices substantially.

 

[sw1tcher]

Are you arguing that prices don't matter?
8-16% price hikes do tend to have an impact, all other factors being equal, especially on a product that's entire proposition is about the price.

What I'm saying is if the economy was "very very very very bad" and people are dealing with tight budgets, they wouldn't be running out to buy a $599 or $699 computer. They'd be prioritizing their spending on basic necessities (e.g. food, rent, utilities, etc.).

If people are buying a $599 or $699 computer because they need it, then an extra $50-$100 isn't going to stop them*. Or they'll just buy a less expensive Windows PC.


* I'm basing this on what companies (e.g. Bank of America, Visa, Mastercard, Delta Airlines, United Airlines, Live Nation, Disney, etc) have all been saying over the past month in their earnings reports about the resilient consumer and their spending.

 

[ikramerica]

Tim Apple left the ceo position at the perfect time

His supply chain is failing from multiple weak links.

 

[turbineseaplane]

If people are buying a $599 or $699 computer because they need it, then an extra $50-$100 isn't going to stop them*. Or they'll just buy a less expensive Windows PC.

Even if you "need" something, price hikes do change behavior.

As you immediately said, they'll start considering alternatives (including preowned or just keeping what they have).

 

[johannnn]

So is AI net good or? Sure, it can code for me. But it comes at a cost which is EXTREMELY high prices on all components

 

[turbineseaplane]

So is AI net good or? Sure, it can code for me. But it comes at a cost which is EXTREMELY high prices on all components

Depends who you are.
If you're reaping rewards or finding it very useful in your work, then "yes".

If it's taking your job, jacking your prices and ruining any manner of other things you've enjoyed then "no".

I'm in the "no" camp.

 

[azentropy]

We can only guess what distribution of configurations that Apple is selling.

 

[abowlby]

I’m expecting a price increase with the A19 Pro 12 GB RAM model. If that price increase just means dropping the 256 GB storage tier and keeping the 512 GB storage tier at the same price, that would be a major bonus for me, because I had no interest in a Neo with either 256 GB or 8 GB RAM, and because I was expecting that possible price increase for all tiers of the A19 Pro Neo.

MBN

Don't believe it. They may deal with the temporary shortage of supplied, but they are picking up so many new Apple buyers they won't give that up. Same with the Mac mini, I feel that isn't a 'discontinuation' of the product but they are waiting for the M5 version to build up enough stock. Apple is the master of Just in Time delivery and that's great when you don't have issues. But they do so they wait.

My prediction. Neo stays the same, delays expected until the supply chain works itself out. Same with the introduction level Mac mini.

Apple can sell these products for a very small level of profit and then make HUGE bank from people who subscribe to all the services they then offer. Locking people into the eco system is far more valuable than an extra $100.

JIT manufacturing works a lot better for market ebbs and flows. Storage isn't coming down anytime soon. Maybe ever. Example: Utah is going to be breaking ground on a 62 square MILE data center, the RAM/storage crunch is here to stay. Computing will eventually no longer be available to the plebs in the spirit of the way it is now.

 

[abowlby]

Personally I don't think there ever should have been two models.

Put TouchID on there, pick which storage size to go with and just sell the Neo.

The entire press around launch was very "greaseball-coded."

That "starts at $499" really burned my tookis. 😂

 

[turbineseaplane]

The entire press around launch was very "greaseball-coded."

That "starts at $499" really burned my tookis. 😂

If anyone is looking for the "NoTouchID" Neos, they are starting to show up on my local FB.

One guy with the vaunted Citrus model* is down to $450 and still no takers.

*according to podcasters and vloggers gushing out Apple PR about how baby poop is now a great "color"

 

[Macalicious2011]

This is bad for consumers. Very bad.

 

[abowlby]

What I'm saying is if the economy was "very very very very bad" and people are dealing with tight budgets, they wouldn't be running out to buy a $599 or $699 computer. They'd be prioritizing their spending on basic necessities (e.g. food, rent, utilities, etc.).

If people are buying a $599 or $699 computer because they need it, then an extra $50-$100 isn't going to stop them*. Or they'll just buy a less expensive Windows PC.


* I'm basing this on what companies (e.g. Bank of America, Visa, Mastercard, Delta Airlines, United Airlines, Live Nation, Disney, etc) have all been saying over the past month in their earnings reports about the resilient consumer and their spending.

I took a class/training some years ago called "Bridges Out of Poverty." Very eye opening regarding financial prioritizations. Just because someone is poor doesn't mean they don't have the human desire to "splurge." And so they do.

 

[Bazza1]

A variation of 'bait and switch'. Attract a user interested in the features and price that make product appealing and a market leader, but then make it unavailable at the promised level. They did it with MacBook Air, recently with Mini. Now Neo?

 

[Frantisekj]

If the goal was to bring more people into the brand and grow the reach of Macs, leave it alone. Apple can afford a small loss per unit. Revisit in a year.

It is not just memory but Apple has to pay new batch of A18 Pro instead of using binned versions collected in time.

 

[Frantisekj]

Apple will likely release an A19 Pro version of the Neo soon. The Mac Mini models are expected to be out of stock until the M5 upgrades arrive. Mac Studio is holding out the next ultra chip and probably the M6 Max. If it were going to get an M5 Max, it probably would have by now. RAM prices play a role in this, but for the mini and studio, it’s more likely due to high demand depleting inventories ahead of an anticipated refresh, long after production had ended for their components.

I do not think so. They will use binned/faulty versions of A19 pro. You are not producing them on demand, you collect them from production in time. That is one of reason Neo good price.

 

[Macalicious2011]

If true, it's odd that Apple released the Neo at this price point. That would imply that memory and other component prices are increasing a lot faster than Apple was expecting just a few weeks ago.

Apple would have known 6-12 months ago that memory prices were going to increase. They even agreed with Samsung to pay 100% premium on LPDDR5X for iPhones.

Them and the big OEM have historically agreed and locked in prices 12 months ahead.

 

[Biro]

If the goal was to bring more people into the brand and grow the reach of Macs, leave it alone. Apple can afford a small loss per unit. Revisit in a year.

Agreed. Has Apple ever raised the price of a given device in the middle of a so-called “model year”? I could be wrong but I think price adjustments are only made as updated versions are introduced. I think a price increase would be a big mistake before introduction of the next version of the Neo - the one that will allegedly have the A19 Pro chip in it.

Also, if we assume the next Neo loses the base 256GB version and the price of the 512 GB version goes to $799 or even $749, how many people will then opt for an M5/M6 MacBook Air on sale at Amazon for $949 or $999? Apple might like that but it kind of destroys the Neo’s reason to exist.

 

[EugW]

I do not think so. They will use binned/faulty versions of A19 pro. You are not producing them on demand, you collect them from production in time. That is one of reason Neo good price.

It seems unlikely they are only using binned chips. They were probably already using both binned and non-binned chips.

Agreed. Has Apple ever raised the price of a given device in the middle of a so-called “model year”? I could be wrong but I think price adjustments are only made as updated versions are introduced. I think a price increase would be a big mistake before introduction of the next version of the Neo - the one that will allegedly have the A19 Pro chip in it.

Yes they have, a couple of times. However, I don't expect that with the Neo. Even prior to the rumours, I was thinking Apple may increase the pricing when they upgraded to the A19 Pro, either because of the 12 GB RAM or because they could drop the 256 GB tier or both.

Also, if we assume the next Neo loses the base 256GB version and the price of the 512 GB version goes to $799 or even $749, how many people will then opt for an M5/M6 MacBook Air on sale at Amazon for $949 or $999? Apple might like that but it kind of destroys the Neo’s reason to exist.

At $749 retail with 12 GB RAM and 512 GB, I'd take the Neo over an M6 MBA at $1099 retail. Actually, lower with edu pricing, but I'm comparing like-for-like. All bets are off with sale pricing, but don't forget that the Neo can go on sale too.

Especially interesting will be the yearly Back-To-School sale. I have a suspicion the deal will be significantly better for the Air than the Neo, and if so I may take the Air over the Neo next year. However, if the BTS sale is the same for both the Neo and the Air, I'd probably take the Neo over the Air. (This is for my kid next year.)

I won't be buying an 8 GB 256 GB model, unless there is like a $150 off edu pricing clearance sale or something.