Apple May Drop Base $599 MacBook Neo as Chip, DRAM Costs Climb

[DerekK]

This is why I don't envy the team that works in forecasting and supply chain. They forecast 5M units, sold everything, and now have to figure out how to get more. TSMC has likely booked all of their existing capacity, so either Apple has to pay a premium. I'm not sure if there is anyone else that can manufacture a 3nm node on short notice.

Apple will likely absorb some of these costs, but I could see them limiting production to a single SKU to minimize their losses.

I doubt they would switch to using A19s, even though that may be technically feasible, it would likely require recertification of entire laptop.

I don't think Apple will release a Neo 2 this soon.

 

[kiranmk2]

So if they are out of A18 Pro chips are they just going to kill the product? Or are they just going to string along those prospective buyers for 6 or 7 months? I don't think so. It will have an A19 Pro by WWDC.

Well, given the lead times are currently 2-3 weeks, they may well be soft-killing it if they can't get the parts in. No way an A19Pro model launches within a month.

 

[kingtj1971]

I don’t understand how a new color is supposed to soften the blow of a price increase.

It seems crazy to me too, but you've got to remember the target market for these. My wife was interested in a Neo as soon as she found out they were available in "citrus". Before that, she was content with her PC gaming laptop and never owned a Mac.

(Ironically, once we looked at the Neo in the Apple Store first-hand, she strongly disliked the Citrus color because it didn't look nearly as yellow as the online photos made it seem.) We decided to go with a 512GB Indigo model for her, but we wound up returning it in only 3 days because a sale price Micro Center had on the Macbook Air M5's meant not spending a whole lot more (still under $1000) for a 1" bigger display and a far more capable machine w/2x the RAM and a backlit keyboard.

 

[whitby]

This would be unprecedented given that a lot of the review sites keep emphasizing the $499 education pricing. This is a major attraction for this product even if people eventually buy the 512GB model. To launch a new product and within a few months kill, probably, its most attractive model seems untenable at best and a serious mistake at worst. And a new color option, you have to be joking, surely?

I really cannot see this happening, but we live in strange times. After all I can no longer buy my current configuration of a current model, the Mac Mini M4 Pro with 64GB memory and 2 TB of SSD (I know, an overpriced solution, but I bought before the new M4 Studios came out).

 

[TVreporter]

Tim: Sorry John, your problem now!

 

[mikeack]

How exactly does a new color cushion the blow? Do they think people are that stupid?

People like exclusivity. Just look at whatever the last TikTok consumerism trend was.

 

[turbineseaplane]

Ahh, I see, so this is more about third party refurbishers cutting corners. Got it! Every time I've gone for a refurb from Apple, it's basically been like new, so it's definitely worth paying a little extra for, especially since parts are going to be authentic.

And you get a brand new warranty and the ability to add AppleCare plus to it.

 

[HiVolt]

The Neo uses 1 NAND chip for either 256 or 512 config. How is removing the 256gb option make any sense, unless there is priority in the industry for whatever capacity is left to produce higher capacity NAND.

 

[Macalicious2011]

This is why I don't envy the team that works in forecasting and supply chain. They forecast 5M units, so everything, and now have to figure out how to get more. TSMC has likely booked all of their existing capacity, so either Apple has to pay a premium.

This is why the Steam Machine hasn't launched yet. Valve don't know how to price it.

In the past you could order and lock in ram prices for the next 12 months. Now some ram suppliers require price reviews........every 3 or 1 months.😬😬


The only exception to this is if you are apple, openai or nvidia and can pay for a whole year's supply upfront for a couple of billion.

 

[jlc1978]

A few years ago when inflation was out of control, Walmart doubled down on keeping their prices low, and their competitors were increasing prices. And guess which company has been more successful since then?

WalMart does that becasue they demand suppliers reduce prices, typically year over year to WalMart or risk being dropped. Given Walmart may be a supplier’s biggest customer, they have little choice but to comply.

Apple’s challenge is despite being a major customer, the willingness of AI companies to pay whatever it takes for ram meens large price increases as demand outstrips supply.

 

[sdf]

Note that this was almost 6 years ago! Base RAM and storage needs have increased even further since then.

I got that Mac well after 2020.

 

[JPack]

That's what people said about the MacBook Air: $999 was the magic number, and they couldn't go above $1000. Then Apple raised the base price to $1099. They paired that with the deletion of the 256 GB model, but they could do something like that with the Neo as well.

With the Neo, they can justify a price increase just with the jump from 8 GB to 12 GB RAM, or they could delete the 256 GB Neo too, or make the 256 GB no-Touch ID version only edu-institutional.

I'm not saying they will definitely do this, but there is precedent and in fact, I had been previously predicting a possible price increase for the 19 Pro 12 GB Neo.

A big reason for launching the Neo is so Apple can have more flexibility with pricing the MacBook Air.

Previously, Apple had to pull the MBA price lever hard to respond to the competition. So I don’t think the MacBook Air analogy applies in this case.

MacBook Neo is more like iPhone 18/e. Apple is far more likely to cut specs or maintain current 8/256 than raise prices and lose first time Mac users.

 

[JPack]

Well, given the lead times are currently 2-3 weeks, they may well be soft-killing it if they can't get the parts in. No way an A19Pro model launches within a month.

It’s widely available at Amazon and Walmart. I suspect the issue is far more consumers are buying from Apple to save $100.

 

[tomtad]

How exactly does a new color cushion the blow? Do they think people are that stupid?

Demand is likely far beyond what they expected, so they are probably thinking they should have charged a bit more.

 

[tomtad]

At that starting price the Neo wills tart looking like poor value. Especially if you can buy a refurbished M2-M3 MacBook Air with 16GB ram for the same money. It will become the new iPhone colour.

View attachment 2628179

However. What I think Apple will do is.........................discontinue the MacBook Air. Neo 12GB RAM will make it redundant. Therefore the choice will be NEO, MacBook Pro.

The Neo however is a bit more compact, no notch, and of course comes in colours. It's the cool one to have.

 

[turbineseaplane]

How exactly does a new color cushion the blow? Do they think people are that stupid?

It's $100 more than it was!

Yeah, but look at how cool liquid purple looks!

 

[JPack]

Demand is likely far beyond what they expected, so they are probably thinking they should have charged a bit more.

If Apple charged more, then demand wouldn't be as high. Demand is probably about where Apple wants it to be - basically taking market share away from PCs.

 

[CWallace]

The Neo uses 1 NAND chip for either 256 or 512 config. How is removing the 256gb option make any sense, unless there is priority in the industry for whatever capacity is left to produce higher capacity NAND.

It is possible that global supply of 256GB NAND chips is severely constrained, since Apple has also dropped the 256GB configuration for the Mac mini. So Apple could be holding back supply in order to support 512GB configurations (which I believe all use 2x256GB NAND chips).

But even if 256GB NAND is available in sufficient stock, if Apple is running critically low on binned A18 Pro SoCs, unless the 256GB configuration is the most-popular (and I believe it is not), then removing it means they can focus all their remaining production on the more in-demand 512GB configuration (which should have better margins than the 256GB configuration).

 

[JPack]

It is possible that global supply of 256GB NAND chips is severely constrained, since Apple has also dropped the 256GB configuration for the Mac mini. So Apple could be holding back supply in order to support 512GB configurations (which I believe all use 2x256GB NAND chips).

But even if 256GB NAND is available in sufficient stock, if Apple is running critically low on binned A18 Pro SoCs, unless the 256GB configuration is the most-popular (and I believe it is not), then removing it means they can focus all their remaining production on the more in-demand 512GB configuration (which should have better margins than the 256GB configuration).

Mac mini 256GB uses 2x128GB. If there were shortage of low-density NAND (but why? making low density NAND uses fewer layers, less silicon, fewer steps), Apple would first change iPad Air M4, iPad, Apple TV to 256GB.

For Mac mini, it's more likely to be a pure margin play. Wait times were 10-12 weeks. Apple bumped the entry to 16/512, but the current lead time is still 3-4 weeks. This means 16/256 left a lot of money on the table for Apple. Bumping to 16/512 was a logical move.

 

[Urban Splash]

If true, it's odd that Apple released the Neo at this price point. That would imply that memory and other component prices are increasing a lot faster than Apple was expecting just a few weeks ago.

It’s more likely Apple has been blown away by the sales volumes, and realised it could have charged more for the base model. This corrects that neatly. The Touch ID version has been mega popular too. Margins margins margins

 

[CarAnalogy]

Maybe you should have a chat with this person:

MacBook Neo Could Get New Colors to Cushion Potential Price Hike

I’d probably pay an extra for an orange one!

forums.macrumors.com

Actually...if the color process isn't all that expensive (it probably is) they really could make extra money off special order colors.

Imagine if they sold these in matching university colors.

 

[EugW]

I got that Mac well after 2020.

Doesn't matter, the sentiment still applies, which was that people were in their honeymoon period with the M1 8 / 256 GB in the first few months after it launched in 2020, but by early 2021 the reality of its limitations set in.

 

[IvyKing]

Imagine if they sold these in matching university colors.

Assuming you mean having the lid at one color and the base of another color, e.g. a "gold" lid and blue base for Cal?

 

[CarAnalogy]

Assuming you mean having the lid at one color and the base of another color, e.g. a "gold" lid and blue base for Cal?

I phrased it poorly but yeah, colors that match the exact color of major universities. I hadn't even considered what you said, two tone, but that's even better.

I was thinking Georgia Bulldogs red, for example, or Michigan blue and yellow.

 

[DEMinSoCAL]

Actually...if the color process isn't all that expensive (it probably is) they really could make extra money off special order colors.

Imagine if they sold these in matching university colors.

Imagine if you could buy a skin of any color or college you wanted instead for far less than $100! 😉