Apple Might Be Having Its Windows Vista Moment, Says Analyst

[MacRumors]

Is Apple experiencing a "Vista-like drift into systemically poor execution?"

That was a question posed by well-known technology analyst Benedict Evans, in a recent blog post covering Apple's innovation and execution, or seemingly lack thereof as of late. He is referring to Microsoft's Windows Vista operating system, which was widely criticized when it launched in 2007 due to software bugs, performance issues, frequent warning dialogs, polarizing design changes, and several other problems.

Evans said Apple stumbled with the Vision Pro headset, which he believes was not ready to launch. Then, it previewed personalized Siri features at WWDC last year that were merely conceptual, and are now delayed.

"This is a concern," said Evans.

His thoughts on the Vision Pro:

The Vision Pro is a concept, or a demo, and Apple doesn't ship demos. Why did it ship the Vision Pro? What did it achieve? It didn't sell in meaningful volume, because it couldn't, and it didn't lead to much developer activity ether, because no-one bought it. A lot of people even at Apple are puzzled.

He said the personalized Siri delay is a "mirror image" of the Vision Pro situation:

Apple showed a demo, and it only does demos when things are nearly done, and it said it would ship 'later this year' and it never misses deadlines like that. So we should be using it, today.

And now we find that we didn't really see a demo, only a mock-up of a great concept, and that this product won't ship until maybe late 2025, and possibly (going by the rumour-mill) 2026, or even 2027.

All of this led to his "Vista-like" comment:

The failure of Siri 2 is by far the most dramatic instance of a growing trend for Apple to launch stuff late. The software release cycle used to be a metronome: announcement at WWDC in the summer, OS release in September with everything you'd seen. There were plenty of delays and failed projects under the hood […] but public promise were always kept. Now that seems to be slipping. Is this a symptom of a Vista-like drift into systemically poor execution?

Nevertheless, Evans acknowledged that critics have been claiming that Apple is no longer innovative since at least the 1980s, and that the company has historically continued to deliver more innovative and category-defining products over the years. Still, he said he is left wondering if that Apple still exists today.

Evans' full blog post, highlighted by Techmeme today, is worth a read.

Article Link: Apple Might Be Having Its Windows Vista Moment, Says Analyst

 

[turbineseaplane]

And another Sculley moment, if Tim is allowed to keep hanging around

 

[abatabia]

A reasonable comparison. The gulf between hardware and software continues to widen. Apple needs a pause on chasing the shiny new thing and really needs to focus on fixing the issues and just catching up on bugs. Would it be so bad if we had a year like that? I don’t think so.

 

[JoshuaBru]

I’ve commented this several times but I’m dead serious. It’s time for Tim Cook to go.

 

[AngerDanger]

Kinda funny that this coincides with their rumored visionOS-inspired redesigns of iOS and macOS when its frosted UI, blurring background elements behind, are reminiscent of Vista itself.

 

[JonathanParker]

It sure feels like that's what’s happening right now

 

[spazzcat]

Another stock manipulation article.

 

[Onimusha370]

I think Apple’s hardware (including the Vision Pro) continues to be extremely impressive and industry leading. The issue is almost entirely software and services, as it has been for over a decade now.

 

[WilliApple]

Im actually been saying that the delayed Siri features are windows longhorn this entire time haha.

 

[Lounge vibes 05]

Read the headline and I thought they were talking about the Glass like interface rumored for the new OS’s.

 

[giggles]

This is so news-worthy.

🥱

 

[ricketysquire]

It comes down to tech's obsession with constantly pushing out changes. How about a stable underlying OS? Do things need to be redesigned? Must AI, Blockchain or some other stupid trend be shoved down our throats? Can we as a tech community just slow down, take advantage of what we have?

People get upset that Apple is not coming out with new redesigned hardware as if Tim is personally going to come to your home and hand you a brand new device at no cost as soon as it is announced, when in reality its a few week delay to come from some factory half way across the earth and the new redesign could/might/will probably have issues since its the first version of the redesign.

Same thing with software. We don't need a new iOS/macOS/watchOS/iPadOS every damn year.

 

[MRSugarD]

I think his view is somewhat a huge dramatization of events. But I do agree that Apple should only preview things/features that will be available soon and not in the distant future. AirPower should stay the exception and not become the rule.

 

[Gabebear]

What AI isn't getting panned right now?

 

[npmacuser5]

Apple has cataracts covering their vision of what the majority of users need or want by focusing on the business and or pro users. Their attempts to play to the majority users are very wrong. Removing essential hardware while bloating the software with never used options. Now to pricing, the above applies. Business and pro pricing across the product line.

 

[NoSoup4U]

I served with Vista. I knew Vista. Vista was an OS of mine.

Sequoia is no Vista.

 

[Ael_MR]

Very embarrassing for Apple. They need to slowdown the software pipeline. Services profit is tied to the quality of the product. No one is going to subscribe to AI features or an advanced Siri unless it's flawless.

 

[Eidorian]

What AI isn't getting panned right now?

The first thing I did was look for mentions of AI. I agree with you.

 

[Lounge vibes 05]

If I recall correctly, the biggest problem with Vista was that the majority of hardware available barely could handle it.
iOS is basically in the opposite position, you can still run it on a seven year-old phone just fine.
If anything this is their PowerBook G5/3GHz G5 moment (again) in that they are making promises they simply cannot keep.

 

[lucasajackson]

I think to call this Apple's Vista moment is an exaggeration, and doesn't actually capture Microsoft's ongoing pattern of shipping bad versions of Windows: Windows ME (bad), Windows XP (good), Windows Vista (bad), Windows 7 (good), Windows 8 (bad), Windows 10 (good), Windows 11 (bad-ish)... You get the idea. The Vision Pro, while expensive and shipping in low volume, is a polished experience. The misstep with Siri 2 is showing a mockup rather than a demo, and I think that's a byproduct of moving to pre-recorded product announcements. It's easy to CGI things in a pre-recorded video rather than demo the hard work put into a product - having the live demo is a forcing function to show off near-complete products (sans AirPower, but we knew that was a concept up-front).

 

[CalMin]

I think his view is somewhat a huge dramatization of events. But I do agree that Apple should only preview things/features that will be available soon and not in the distant future. AirPower should stay the exception and not become the rule.

Yeah. It feels like this is a bandwagon onto which a lot of tech news reporting is jumping. Then again, it’s hard to deny that Apple is tripping over its own shoelaces here.

Tim Cook is signing off on these things because presumably he believes that the early announcements (Apple intelligence) and immature product shipments (Vision Pro) reassure investors and prop up the stock price at a time when sales are great but growth could be better. This needs to stop.

Folks who have bought and held Apple stock have done really well - Tim Cook doesn’t need to feel pressure to placate these shareholders. Shipping great products is how the company was built. Keep shipping them and shareholders will continue to do well.

 

[Woodcrest64]

Somebody wants to have their turn again to play with Apple 🤣

 

[xmarcuswildx]

Tim needs to hang it up. It’s painfully obvious.

 

[Churchman]

I commented on the Microsofting / Ballmerization of Apple last September: https://forums.macrumors.com/thread...ome-accessory-next-year.2438633/post-33453831

There needs to be an intervention.

 

[antiprotest]

And it's not just a moment. It's been years now. Apple needs new leadership.