Apple Might Be Having Its Windows Vista Moment, Says Analyst

[Darmok N Jalad]

More Vista bashing. I honestly didn’t think Vista was all that bad, and it was a necessary departure from XP by improving driver models (which manufacturers were slow to support or never supported) and by pushing developers away from bad programming practices (UAC). By the time proper support arrived, so did Windows 7, which was a very popular and successful OS. Basically, Vista is what got us Windows 7.

Windows 11 is honestly more of the mess, especially out of the gate, with unnecessary hardware restrictions, poor featuresets at launch, and just an overall bugginess that makes for a frustrating experience. While it has improved, it has been reported that a recent security update accidentally removed Copilot.

 

[Tres]

The thing with Apple is, up until the Apple Intelligence debacle, they were renowned for being a company that would hold off on new technologies and then release the polished version everyone actually wanted.

They could have, and I feel should have, held off on the launch of Apple Intelligence for a few more years. ChatGPT was only released to the market in November or December of 2022. At present, the tech world is still grappling with the limitations of LLMs and how to best use them. Even Google, supposedly a titan of services, is wildly flailing about and largely failing.

I say this as someone who uses the ChatGPT API daily to massively increase work efficiency: LLMs are hugely flawed and are potentially dangerous for the kinds of things people think they can use them for.

The reason I can use LLMs well is because I know their pitfalls and don't trust them at all. I am also an expert in my field and know how to apply them in the right way. I also have a multi-step quality assurance process before client delivery.

Despite the hype, LLMs are not ready for consumer-facing tasks. Just the other day I got a summarised e-mail notification that a huge sum had been debited from my account. "Yeah, right," I thought, and when I opened the e-mail, surprise surprise, it was more like a few hundred dollars; Apple Intelligence had done the math wrong.

I've seen hallucinations that were just as bad (or worse) even on OpenAI's most advanced models.

I wonder whether the Apple executives have really gotten their hands dirty with LLMs and have seen just how broken they are. I don't understand why they panicked and pushed Apple Intelligence to market.

 

[Ctrlos]

Apple got distracted by AI. They’d been using machine learning for years in all sorts of helpful ways but LLM caught the industry off guard. It became a narrative Apple could not control so they had to appease shareholders by releasing Apple Intelligence in an unfinished state as a box ticking exercise.

AI won’t ever be profitable. The industry haemorrhages money and customers are wary of paying for Skynet. Microsoft are waiting patiently for the bottom to fall out of OpenAI so they can buy them for 10% of their current valuation and distill GPT into Windows 12.

Apple would do well to going back to what they do best: making reliable hardware with solid software. Forget AI altogether and concentrate on fixing the bugs in its OSes and the long-standing ergonomic issues with iOS. The rewrite features can be integrated into the apps they serve, they can make the photo editor better, but with Pixelmator and not more AI gimmicks like Google.

I’d actually go as far as marketing Apple products as anti-AI devices. Back the human story at the core of all creative endeavours and show how Apple products not only help make that happen but also help users pick up skills. The 1984 ads were counter-cultural; do that again.

 

[sigmasirrus]

Apple needs to get back to live events. The streaming video event allowed them to hide the fact that their AI stuff was just a concept video and wasn’t even close to ready. It’s not just for us, it would be Apple holding themselves to a higher standard as well.

 

[Anaxarxes]

1. Focus on user experience/needs and work your way back to technology.
2. Make the product design and UX teams report to Chief Design Officer (previously held by Jony Ive) with no comprimise to product design. Have the product engineering report to this structure as well, makign sure great products are developed.

 

[Taipan]

The article falls apart once you realize that it’s simply not true that they don’t ship demo products. They have called the Apple TV a hobby project for years.

 

[Mousse]

MS had to rewrite windows to catch to OS X. It still didn't with Windows 11 still having all of old code though visually it is now strikingly close to Mac OS. But innards still feel like same Windows 2000 things.
Apple doesn't have to do any catchups with anyone. MacOS or OS X is still a best computer OS out there and iOS is still a great mobile OS.

OSX was the best computer OS back during the Snow Leopard. Now it's so bloated you need the gobs of RAM and a super fast processors just to run it. I've come to prefer Linux over OSX. It's infinitely more svelte and nimble. Trying running the latest OSX in 4 or 8GB RAM with a slow processor. I've got Linux running on a 2GB RAM on a 10 year old Celeron (the crappiest Intel chip).

Apple needs to trim the bloat and clean up all the undocumented features.

 

[CocktailHour]

Is Apple experiencing a "Vista-like drift into systemically poor execution?"

That was a question posed by well-known technology analyst Benedict Evans, in a recent blog post covering Apple's innovation and execution, or seemingly lack thereof as of late. He is referring to Microsoft's Windows Vista operating system, which was widely criticized when it launched in 2007 due to software bugs, performance issues, frequent warning dialogs, polarizing design changes, and several other problems.

Evans said Apple stumbled with the Vision Pro headset, which he believes was not ready to launch. Then, it previewed personalized Siri features at WWDC last year that were merely conceptual, and are now delayed.

"This is a concern," said Evans.

His thoughts on the Vision Pro:He said the personalized Siri delay is a "mirror image" of the Vision Pro situation:All of this led to his Vista-like comment:Nevertheless, Evans acknowledged that critics have been claiming that Apple is no longer innovative since at least the 1980s, and that the company has historically continued to deliver more innovative and category-defining products over the years. Still, he said he is left wondering if that Apple still exists today.

Evans' full blog post, highlighted by Techmeme today, is worth a read.

Article Link: Apple Might Be Having Its Windows Vista Moment, Says Analyst

When Siri first launched, I tried it. Because it needed to send information all the way back to the server, then answers back to me, it was slow and unreliable. It was just so much easier to do everything the "old fashioned way", that I just stopped using it. It then improved somewhat, but I only used it sporadically. It's just not good enough to use. In fact, it's just an annoyance on my MacBook Pro that has a Siri button. I accidentally hit it, then Siri pops up and I say, "Go away!" It's my entire Siri interaction now.

 

[stocklen]

A very fair article.
Pretty much sums it up correctly in my view.

This is a new trend. over promising and under delivering and I was pretty surprised (if even shocked) to learn that the Bella Ramsey promotional adverts run back in September to entice people to buy a new iPhone 16 were in fact showcasing simulated vapourware and not working features imminently releasing.

Apple would be best advised now to put the brakes on, stop releasing major new iterations of iOS yearly just for the same of it, and get iOS 18 sorted with all the promised features before worrying about iOS 19.

Id be quite happy to skip a year of releases if it meant that the ones we already have worked well and as advertised.

 

[StoneJack]

OSX was the best computer OS back during the Snow Leopard. Now it's so bloated you need the gobs of RAM and a super fast processors just to run it. I've come to prefer Linux over OSX. It's infinitely more svelte and nimble. Trying running the latest OSX in 4 or 8GB RAM with a slow processor. I've got Linux running on a 2GB RAM on a 10 year old Celeron (the crappiest Intel chip).

Apple needs to trim the bloat and clean up all the undocumented features.

I am running it perfectly fine on 8gb macbook pro m3

 

[vertsix]

Give us John Ternus!!!!! It is about damn time that we have a hardware engineer at the helm of Apple.

 

[cupcakes2000]

We are not buying macbooks to use Siri or Siri 2

But people would buy them for Siri if Siri was the best that it could be. I dream of Jarvis, and Siri can’t even set a timer properly. Of course it’s not selling machines.

 

[bice]

The Apple Intelligence disaster cannot be overstated.

...

It was not at all an disaster. I got us the much needed 16GB base configuration. Best thing Apple have done in a long time!

 

[GianL]

After Vista, W7 and W10 was received very well from the users community.
While... is it true there's somebody considering Snow Leopard (2009) the best macOS version ever?

 

[Steve01234]

I might sign up for News but it's just too expensive for what it is. couple that with other annoying overpriced streaming subscriptions and no. same for Apple Music, I enjoyed 30 day trial and canceled on day 30.
As for Siri 2 they simply grossly underestimated what it would take to make work well.

 

[vantelimus]

His thoughts on the Vision Pro:

The Vision Pro is a concept, or a demo, and Apple doesn't ship demos. Why did it ship the Vision Pro? What did it achieve? It didn't sell in meaningful volume, because it couldn't, and it didn't lead to much developer activity ether, because no-one bought it. A lot of people even at Apple are puzzled.

It wasn’t supposed to sell in “meaningful” volume. How quickly people forget that they said before it was released that quantities were limited by the availability of parts to 400k units in the first year.

Meanwhile, I use mine everyday while my monitors sit idle. It provides an absolutely superior display environment for a software developer. I really don’t like using my monitors anymore. Believe me, if you sit in front of screens looking at text everyday, it is very easy to get used to a 7680x2160 room sized display. Plus, even though I’m not a Metallica fan, I thought the new immersive Metallica video was awesome.

That said. Apple needs to figure out if it wants to be a software and hardware company or a media company. While I appreciate some of the media projects they’ve made and I realize they have to seed the market for immersive content, they need to spend their money on the hardware and software quality.

I’m not optimistic about their coming UI redesign.

 

[TechTexan]

A reasonable comparison. The gulf between hardware and software continues to widen. Apple needs a pause on chasing the shiny new thing and really needs to focus on fixing the issues and just catching up on bugs. Would it be so bad if we had a year like that? I don’t think so.

Agree completely. We don’t need a new OS every year. Take a year off and fix what’s broken.

 

[Mousse]

After Vista, W7 and W10 was received very well from the users community.

I still consider W7 the best version of Windows ever. I'm forced to move on because some stupid software I have to use requires at least W10. I'm resisting moving to W11 for as long as possible.

While... is it true there's somebody considering Snow Leopard (2009) the best macOS version ever?

Oh, oh, oh. Me, me, me. I think Snow Leopard is best version of OSX. Svelte, resource efficient, fast--what's not to love?

 

[ksnell]

I think Apple’s hardware (including the Vision Pro) continues to be extremely impressive and industry leading. The issue is almost entirely software and services, as it has been for over a decade now.

For sure, specifically mobile software (iOS and iPadOS) need their next leap. They're 15-20 years old now and still so limited! iPadOS needs to be much more desktop like, especially if docked to a keyboard.

 

[turbineseaplane]

Honestly, I think apple has fallen into the same trap as so many other companies. They focused on the business and money, instead of the innovations. They have gotten stale

"If you keep your eye on the profit, you’re going to skimp on the product. But if you focus on making really great products, then the profits will follow."

- Steve Jobs

 

[FatLouie]

Very embarrassing for Apple. They need to slowdown the software pipeline. Services profit is tied to the quality of the product. No one is going to subscribe to AI features or an advanced Siri unless it's flawless.

A friend recently asked my why I recently purchased an iPhone 15+ since it could not do the AI. I told him that AI and Siri 2 were way off and to not expect anything workable or solid for at least 2 years.

I love my Apple products but frankly, Mr. Cook is not a visionary nor does he appear to know how to push creative employees to their best ideas. Mr. Cook was great at logistics but not so great at the helm. At present the only Apple service I find compelling is iCloud and I pay for extra space on it. My iPod still works and it has iTunes purchases on it but since Apple killed the iPod I have no need to purchase any more iTunes. I do not use my phone as a iPod, I use it as a phone.

 

[vantelimus]

Honestly, I think apple has fallen into the same trap as so many other companies. They focused on the business and money, instead of the innovations. They have gotten stale. When numbers drive your actions instead of innovation and design, you start making bad moves like this.

It isn’t a trap. It appears to be the natural evolution of human institutions.

 

[contacos]

I served with Vista. I knew Vista. Vista was an OS of mine.

Sequoia is no Vista.

Did you even read the article?

 

[vantelimus]

"If you keep your eye on the profit, you’re going to skimp on the product. But if you focus on making really great products, then the profits will follow."

- Steve Jobs

Focusing on the product requires leadership and vision.

When I interviewed with a VP at Google over 10 years ago, I asked the person how Google was going to address the quality of their products since they all feel like really good 1.0 releases that never progress beyond that point. I used Android as an example of a decent product that lacked the polish and direction of iPhone. The answer I got, and this is verbatim, was “Oh, I don’t know that we can solve that problem. That would take someone like Steve Jobs”.

 

[0049190]

Hear me out... how about a virtual assistant that pops up when MacOS thinks you might need help? It could offer different suggestions.

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Clippy and Rocky the dog were one of the few things I liked about Windows. Don’t know why they ditched them.