Apple Might Be Having Its Windows Vista Moment, Says Analyst

[August West]

As a former Vista user, the Apple devices and software I use aren't even in the same league of bad as Vista was. I was firmly embedded in the Microsoft/Android world until I purchased a Lenovo T400 laptop in 2008 that only came with Vista 64 Pro. After a year of battling with it daily after using XP for years I figured that just had to be something better out there. So I purchased a MacBook Pro in 2009 and never looked back. A couple of years later I got tired of using Android with MacOS so purchased an iPhone.

I really have no interest Vision Pro or AI so maybe I'd feel differently if these were high priority items for me. They do need to get Siri fixed so it can at least do basic things reliably but that is a long way from being as bad as Vista was.

 

[xmarcuswildx]

I think Apple’s hardware (including the Vision Pro) continues to be extremely impressive and industry leading. The issue is almost entirely software and services, as it has been for over a decade now.

people are starting to come around to the prices as well…. As wealth is funneled away from people, more people aren’t buying or paying for stuff.

 

[VictoryHighway]

Apple never misses its deadlines? Anyone remember AirPower and Carplay2?

 

[uiop.]

Kinda funny that this coincides with their rumored visionOS-inspired redesigns of iOS and macOS when its frosted UI, blurring background elements behind, are reminiscent of Vista itself.

Oof, didn't even make this connection until now. Shiny and pretty, but a sh*t experience.

 

[StoneJack]

MS had to rewrite windows to catch to OS X. It still didn't with Windows 11 still having all of old code though visually it is now strikingly close to Mac OS. But innards still feel like same Windows 2000 things.
Apple doesn't have to do any catchups with anyone. MacOS or OS X is still a best computer OS out there and iOS is still a great mobile OS.
However, some elements of the OS are being delayed like AI. How important is that?
Well, after seeing what Copilot brings to Windows, I'd say the delay is not big deal for Mac OS. We are not buying macbooks to use Siri or Siri 2 and even if they bring it a year later, I don't care anyway for that AI things. It is my personal opinion, so YMMV.
So he is wrong imho.

 

[tweaknmod]

This is so news-worthy.

🥱

I enjoyed reading it.

Could I suggest that you simply move on, when you encounter content you don’t find worthy of your time?

I suppose you could say the same to me, that I should simply move on rather than reply to your comment, but I see it as a chance to push back against incessantly negative culture online, while encouraging optimism and respect.

 

[iObama]

Some in this thread are straight up delusional. I miss the Apple of Jobs as well, but Tim Cook is nowhere near Steve Ballmer.

Tim Cook is the CEO of the biggest company in the history of the world, which has been the case for years and will most likely continue to be the case for years. Microsoft was NOT THAT at all.

ChatGPT and AI are still very new to the public. In terms of everyday users, ChatGPT has a website and an app... they do not have a platform.

If Apple completely bungles advanced Siri, then we may have a problem... but I'm not seeing a competitor (to Apple as a whole) yet.

edit: added (to Apple as a whole)

 

[uiop.]

Somebody wants to have their turn again to play with Apple 🤣

View attachment 2494128

Would rather have skeuomorphism with stability over flat design riddled with bugs.

 

[555gallardo]

But.... we need a new version of iOS, with even more proof-of-concept features than ever before! Seriously though - Apple really needs to give up at least once on annual software upgrades and give us the Snow Leopard moment. At. Least. One. More. Time.

 

[Amazing Iceman]

I think to call this Apple's Vista moment is an exaggeration, and doesn't actually capture Microsoft's ongoing pattern of shipping bad versions of Windows: Windows ME (bad), Windows XP (good), Windows Vista (bad), Windows 7 (good), Windows 8 (bad), Windows 10 (good), Windows 11 (bad-ish)... You get the idea. The Vision Pro, while expensive and shipping in low volume, is a polished experience. The misstep with Siri 2 is showing a mockup rather than a demo, and I think that's a byproduct of moving to pre-recorded product announcements. It's easy to CGI things in a pre-recorded video rather than demo the hard work put into a product - having the live demo is a forcing function to show off near-complete products (sans AirPower, but we knew that was a concept up-front).

Yeah, nothing compares to what Windows ME and Vista brought. It was such a horrible experience that it prompted me to switch to Mac (I didn't like Macs back then, until a friend showed me his Mac and it was impressive!).

 

[Wizec]

I feel that it’s telling that Apple considers reply suggestions in Messages to be “AI” and can’t be delivered to the lowly iPhone 15 or 14 Pro, etc.

The absurdity of this is astounding. I use Google chat at work (I don’t like it but it’s shoved down my throat). It has far better and more contextual reply suggestions without requiring any “AI” than the Messages supposed “AI” suggestions, which after using for a while it’s clear that they are just a canned list of generic responses like, “OK” and “I love you too!”

 

[Manzanito]

I served with Vista. I knew Vista. Vista was an OS of mine.

Sequoia is no Vista.

The blog post is about the company as a whole, not about sequoia.

 

[TechWhisperer]

Tim needs to go.

 

[555gallardo]

If Apple completely bungles advanced Siri, then we may have a problem... but I'm not seeing a competitor yet.

There cannot be a talk about competitors if the so-called advanced Siri already outsources to ChatGPT. Seriously though, I use ChatGPT for both my work and personal life, and that thing made me use Siri strictly to control my humidifier and play some music (on what's a 4th or 5th attempt) on my HomePod mini.

 

[blairh]

The Apple Intelligence disaster cannot be overstated. Their entire marketing campaign last fall was dedicated to Apple Intelligence.

It's the kind of thing that would have caused Steve Jobs to fire some very important people.

I'm confident Apple will rebound, but they need to learn from this experience.

I think the issue at hand was that there was very little to market about the iPhone 16 lineup. But promising things that were not close to be ready was not the answer.

The good news for Apple is that the iPhone Air will be a big deal come fall. Until then they have a lot of explaining to do.

 

[HudsonSteele]

Honestly, I think apple has fallen into the same trap as so many other companies. They focused on the business and money, instead of the innovations. They have gotten stale. When numbers drive your actions instead of innovation and design, you start making bad moves like this. It took Microsoft years to figure that out (and they still don’t have it all the way). It’s great that apple is developing things, but Steve would have NEVER debuted tech that he wasn’t sure was solid. None of this “Look at this idea we have.” For a company who is so secretive about the products they are developing and condemning people who leak information, they seem to be the biggest ones releasing information too soon and tanking their own products (let’s not forget to add the AirPower charger to the list mentioned). They really need to be ok with perfecting their innovations before announcing them. I remember when apple was ahead of the curve on so many ideas and developments. But when the market caught up and were (are) neck-and-neck or even ahead in terms of ideas and innovation, the ONLY advantage apple continued to have was to take what they and others were doing, and do it better! That’s why I stuck with them. But they don’t do that anymore. Features only work halfway and people don’t even want to develop for them anymore because it costs too much to do it. Tim Cook seems to use apple like an atm rather than an innovative, problem solving, direction driving business. If not an atm, then he seems too focused on the returns of share holders instead of innovation. Just my opinion.

 

[iObama]

There cannot be a talk about competitors if the so-called advanced Siri already outsources to ChatGPT. Seriously though, I use ChatGPT for both my work and personal life, and that thing made me use Siri strictly to control my humidifier and play some music (on what's a 4th or 5th attempt) on my HomePod mini.

I didn't write that clearly – I meant competitor to Apple as a whole, not competitor to Siri.

 

[ApplePlectic]

Is Apple experiencing a "Vista-like drift into systemically poor execution?"

That was a question posed by well-known technology analyst Benedict Evans, in a recent blog post covering Apple's innovation and execution, or seemingly lack thereof as of late. He is referring to Microsoft's Windows Vista operating system, which was widely criticized when it launched in 2007 due to software bugs, performance issues, frequent warning dialogs, polarizing design changes, and several other problems.

Evans said Apple stumbled with the Vision Pro headset, which he believes was not ready to launch. Then, it previewed personalized Siri features at WWDC last year that were merely conceptual, and are now delayed.

"This is a concern," said Evans.

His thoughts on the Vision Pro:He said the personalized Siri delay is a "mirror image" of the Vision Pro situation:All of this led to his Vista-like comment:Nevertheless, Evans acknowledged that critics have been claiming that Apple is no longer innovative since at least the 1980s, and that the company has historically continued to deliver more innovative and category-defining products over the years. Still, he said he is left wondering if that Apple still exists today.

Evans' full blog post, highlighted by Techmeme today, is worth a read.

Article Link: Apple Might Be Having Its Windows Vista Moment, Says Analyst

Yep...all very valid points. The most troubling thing about the Siri delay is that they used "Siri 2.0" to sell their latest iPhones. And now those iPhones will be 2 years or older before that capability is realized. Couple this with the damage to Apple's brand and growing lack of trust among consumers and it's apparent that Apple has a very big hill to climb. In an industry where you're only as good as your last failure, Apple's future is looking 1990s-ish.

 

[segfaultdotorg]

Hear me out... how about a virtual assistant that pops up when MacOS thinks you might need help? It could offer different suggestions.

 

[jfreedle2]

Is Apple experiencing a "Vista-like drift into systemically poor execution?"

That was a question posed by well-known technology analyst Benedict Evans, in a recent blog post covering Apple's innovation and execution, or seemingly lack thereof as of late. He is referring to Microsoft's Windows Vista operating system, which was widely criticized when it launched in 2007 due to software bugs, performance issues, frequent warning dialogs, polarizing design changes, and several other problems.

Evans said Apple stumbled with the Vision Pro headset, which he believes was not ready to launch. Then, it previewed personalized Siri features at WWDC last year that were merely conceptual, and are now delayed.

"This is a concern," said Evans.

His thoughts on the Vision Pro:He said the personalized Siri delay is a "mirror image" of the Vision Pro situation:All of this led to his Vista-like comment:Nevertheless, Evans acknowledged that critics have been claiming that Apple is no longer innovative since at least the 1980s, and that the company has historically continued to deliver more innovative and category-defining products over the years. Still, he said he is left wondering if that Apple still exists today.

Evans' full blog post, highlighted by Techmeme today, is worth a read.

Article Link: Apple Might Be Having Its Windows Vista Moment, Says Analyst

They should have not hired those Google "engineers". All companies have problems at times. People really hate Windows Vista and I am not sure why. As when I was running Windows Vista it worked really well, but maybe it was because I built the computer that it was running on. The current GenAIs are the best joke that I have ever seen.

 

[cmichaelb]

I commented on the Microsofting / Ballmerization of Apple last September: https://forums.macrumors.com/thread...ome-accessory-next-year.2438633/post-33453831

There needs to be an intervention.

It has felt like that for 5 years or so, how new engineers must have come in from MS backgrounds and it's effecting software development and UI choices.

Apple never misses its deadlines? Anyone remember AirPower and Carplay2?

Great examples, not to mention, contrary to the quote in the article, not all phone OSs shipped on September fully baked.

Anyone remember the ongoing WiFi troubles in the early days of Phone OS? Or slow rollouts of features? That's not new.

 

[cmichaelb]

...but maybe it was because I built the computer that it was running on. The current GenAIs are the best joke that I have ever seen.

As did I and it still had major issues. It wasn't as bad as ME, but that is a LOW bar. And it was a resource hog.

 

[SBlue1]

As long as it’s not it’s Nokia moment.

 

[syklee26]

Tom Cook is not a good #1. He may be a good bottom line manager, but he has been feeding off Apple fan loyalty for years and now that is starting to run thin. He has no convinceable vision either. He and Eddie Cue need to go.

 

[Dr.Lee]

As a former Vista user, the Apple devices and software I use aren't even in the same league of bad as Vista was. I was firmly embedded in the Microsoft/Android world until I purchased a Lenovo T400 laptop in 2008 that only came with Vista 64 Pro. After a year of battling with it daily after using XP for years I figured that just had to be something better out there. So I purchased a MacBook Pro in 2009 and never looked back. A couple of years later I got tired of using Android with MacOS so purchased an iPhone.

I really have no interest Vision Pro or AI so maybe I'd feel differently if these were high priority items for me. They do need to get Siri fixed so it can at least do basic things reliably but that is a long way from being as bad as Vista was.

Bravo. As a techie, I knew Vista was a disaster before it was released. I was due for a new personal laptop at the time and was looking at a Thinkpad. The cost of entry due to Vistas hardware requirements was higher than a Macbook Pro, and Vista usability was garbage. So I switched to Apple.

That being said, NOTHING Apple is doing is equal to the disaster that was Vista. Perhaps dropping the ports across all of their phones, IF they did it?