Apple Mixed-Reality Headset Shipments Now Estimated to 'Fall Short of 100,000 Units' This Year

[alfonsog]

Most people hate it because first-gen products tend to be a mess.

Look at first-gen Apple Watch. In less than 3 years it was practically unusable. The Series 3 held up way longer.

Same with iPad. 2nd gen iPad lasted much longer.

I bought the first watch, enjoyed it when no one else had one for a couple years. Then I bought the series 3, then 5, then 7. People reading this probably upgrade phones yearly even though my sister still uses iPhone 6 and it works fine. I always buy first-gen and enjoy the products, I don't care if it's obsolete in 3 years, if it succeeds it will have new and better versions (unlike the trash can Mac Pro I had, it never got a new version). I only buy mid cycle products when I NEED them for work otherwise I buy my personal stuff on release date.

 

[goodcow]

That only works for successful products.

This isn't going to be one.

Not if there are so few of them. Sealed, failed consoles go for a lot of money.

 

[BobSc]

Not surprised! It’s $3,000 and overly expensive for being a 1st generation product.

I'm curious. What does "being a 1st generation product" have to do with it's price. The Mac Studio Ultra was a first generation product and sold for $4000.

With this product, there hasn't even been any definitive announcement of its capabilities, etc., yet so many are denigrating it. I just don't understand this.

 

[Mveight]

Kuo has been saying this. Why are you on this site if you put zero stock in rumors?

Apple Reportedly Still Planning High-End and Low-End Versions of Second-Generation Headset in 2025

Apple's second-generation AR/VR headset will be offered in high-end and low-end versions and shipments are expected to be around ten times those...

www.macrumors.com

I put zero stock in Kuo.

 

[Nuno Lopes]

Apple is allegedly going through same path Microsoft went 5 years ago with their mixed reality / VR headset. Same modus operandi … as it looks.

With a difference. Back than we weren’t in the middle of a financial turmoil to the extent we are now.

Will see.

 

[erikkfi]

It's already been reported that Apple is expecting 90,000 sales in the first year. What do these "analysis" companies do, exactly?

 

[ToyoCorollaGR]

Sell less than 100k of a device that's not but even been announced, Apple is awesome!

 

[jimbobb24]

Not sure what the business case is here. If this is aimed at developers, who are they developing for? Why would anyone build apps for this thing when consumer take-up is likely to be poor.

Exactly. If it’s a development kit then it’s not actually “shipping”.

 

[CarAnalogy]

For those who have pointed out the Apple Silicon Dev kit - the devs knew that all Macs going forward were going to have ASi as Apple announced that. In this case, will Apple announce that there will definitely be a consumer version (and when)? Unlikely, but we will see.

Will they announce that there will be? Yes.

When? Probably a timeline if not exact dates, again similar to apple silicon or the Mac Pro.

 

[CarAnalogy]

Very true. The issue, however, is the price. Anyone expecting a “cheap” consumer model a year later is likely to be disappointed. Apple has never released a product and then come out with a cheap version a year later. That certainly didn’t happen with the iPhone.

I think we can expect the usual Apple pricing of about 20% more than anyone thinks it should be. They may try to keep the price down at least at first. With the iPhone they managed to bring the rest of the high end phone pricing up with them rather than making one much cheaper.

Although they do have what they consider their inexpensive products in the MacBook Air, Mac Mini, and iPhone SE and base model iPad.

 

[aidler]

I follow Apple since they made iPads and I will go on record saying this headset will be the first true flop for Apple since Steve Jobs rejoined the company 1998.

 

[PBG4 Dude]

I follow Apple since they made iPads and I will go on record saying this headset will be the first true flop for Apple since Steve Jobs rejoined the company 1998.

Have you forgotten the power Mac Cube?

 

[cocky jeremy]

Seems like we've had VR headsets since the late 80s-early 90s, but never quite took off. Gotta wonder how this will go?

Because it's dumb and pointless.

 

[apparatchik]

Right, so like a MacBook Pro...

Yes, except if you develop an app for a MBP it also runs on a Mac Mini, MBA, iMac, and so on, the Mini starts at $500 and its a general computing device.

I don't see how a $3K device with no current installed base can be a target for devs, we'll see I guess.

 

[Tagbert]

The “it’s for developers” argument is so dumb. As you said, why develop for something if there are no customers? If that really is Apple’s strategy, this thing is DOA.

This will probably need to be a bootstrap process. The initial group of customers will be weight more toward developers with a smaller number of customer, most of whom will be early adopters. Later, when the available software is more built out and possibly the price comes down, you will see more interest among general consumers.

I don't believe that Apple will offer this as a product specifically for developers. they won't call it a development kit.

 

[crsh1976]

Exactly. If it’s a development kit then it’s not actually “shipping”.

How else are you supposed to both motivate devs and create a demand for apps if the headset is just some thrown-together thing nobody is interested in?

Unsure how Apple intends to position this, but to create a niche and drive interest, a functional but undesirable product isn't exactly exciting for anyone. Even the first-gen Watch was a fully designed and marketable product.

 

[farmboy]

Damn, I got the reference and it even brought back memories of what some folks were hoping eWorld could/would be at the time..

I'll check myself in at the nearest retirement home now.

Hurry, there's always a run on green jello and cookies at 2:00.

 

[J.Dillinger]

I can't fathom this is going to market costing more than a studio display no matter what the supply chain component rumors are. The rumors and hype at a $3k price tag are just setting up to make people feel wowed when they launch for a lot less.

 

[Tagbert]

If it looks like the renders it's DOA. No one is going to wear Oculus-style VR headsets in their daily lives.

It's bad enough that everyone has their noses stuck in their smartphones when they walk around as it is.

It doesn't seem like this is meant to be a walking down the sidewalk kind of product. More for office/home use.

I doubt that it will look like a scuba mask. that render has been around forever and looks uncomfortable. It was just done on speculation by an artist working with one of the rumor agents. Apple product don't look like those kind of speculative renders. unless the CAD files are leaked and that hasn't happened here.

 

[crsh1976]

Hurry, there's always a run on green jello and cookies at 2:00.

My teeth can't handle cookies anymore, son.

 

[aidler]

I guess a headset that makes you look like you are wearing no headset could be a interesting idea. Kinda like the Covid masks that hat a picture of the part of your face on them that they were covering. Would need a outward facing display for that.

 

[HiRez]

Not sure what the business case is here. If this is aimed at developers, who are they developing for? Why would anyone build apps for this thing when consumer take-up is likely to be poor.

I was confused at first too. I was trying to think of weird Xcode enhancements or something. But no, I think the idea is for developers to buy these and use them to develop software for the device, which regular users will then see as an incentive to buy the next generation of the device for themselves. But asking developers to shell out $3K for a device with no users is pretty steep. For developers, these should be heavily subsidized by Apple, if not free, if they want to build a successful ecosystem. Even with good apps available, asking folks for $3K for a device you have to keep strapped to your face, has (supposedly) terrible battery life, and a tether cable, is already an uphill battle.

 

[spiderman0616]

Has anyone told Tim that strapping computers to your face is a really stupid idea?

No stupider than pre-judging products that aren't real yet.

 

[PBG4 Dude]

I wonder if Logic and FCP iPad versions will work with this? A virtual mixing desk could be really cool. Might need data gloves providing haptic feedback so the knobs feel real though.

 

[jjudson]

I bought one of these back in 1995:

I used it a handful of times to play Wolfenstein 3D and then the original Doom. After that, it sat on a shelf and gathered dust until it found it's way into my attic.

Fast forward a few years and we bought our youngest son this:

He used it a handful of times to play a few games that came with the headset. After that, it sat on a shelf and gathered dust until it found it's way into our walk-in closet.

Now, I won't be buying this:

Because I'll use it a handful of times to play some stupid limited feature game that Apple comes out with to sell the device. After that, it will sit on a shelf and gather dust until it finds its way onto Ebay for far less than I paid for it...