Apple Plans to Ditch Intel and Use Custom Mac Chips Starting in 2020

[Michael Scrip]

It really boils down to ROI.
Is there return on investment doing a family of laptop/desktop processors?
They have to keep their performance equivalent to Intel or it will be considered a fools errand.

Exactly.

I have to wonder... does Apple want all Macs to have ARM chips? That's around 5 million a quarter. And they'd have to be damn sure that they can match (or beat) the already available Intel chips that work so well.

Or are they just considering ARM-based Macbooks? The 12" Macbook. Or some new "Air" lineup.

That would be a much smaller amount of chips... and they'd be much less demanding.

I could see ARM-based Macbooks, with LTE, and whatever this iOS/Mac app crossover thing is... before I can see Apple trying to replace the desktop i7 and Xeon CPUs from Intel.

Like you... I'm not saying Apple can't do it.

But it's a HUGE undertaking with plenty of risks.

 

[Patrice Brousseau]

The world we live in today is amazing! I'm not even an expert in coding or computing but just an user (2 Hackintoshes and an early 2011 MBP). So far, reading all the posts: the rumor has gone to almost 90 percent fact...

In case it happens ( two years from now ): I won't die ´cause of this and one thing is sure, I'll wake up tomorrow and go to work as usual.

 

[dannys1]

The iPad pros and iPhones since A10 have run faster than some Intel chips in their Macbooks.

That's a long way away from being the 4.2ghz i7 in the iMac though.

Anyway it appears Apple won't be using ARM anyway.

 

[pankajdoharey]

I believe Apple is more than capable to do that. Probably several times. But PowerPPC also managed that, they had several winning processors.
But in the end, for the lack of whatever, probably economies of scale, PPC wasn't able to keep up with intel and its continuing revolving offer of ever improving products.
Having a few winning designs isn't enought, that hae to be consistent and predictable.
Apple has shown to be able to do that against (mainly) Qualcomm. They have much larger numbers there than in the Mac PPC years and the iPhone will help to share costs. I don't know if they are up to intel but they are in a much better position than the last time.

PPC was different IBM and Motorola got lazy, Apple was their only customer, and Apple Depended on Chip design progress made by IBM and Motorola. This time around Steve thought of everything, and instated a chip design team before he was gone. Steve really thought of everything including Tim. And i think this Chip Design Team will take Apple Forward in a number of areas, Apple would become an unstoppable force without depending on outside innovation timelines.
[doublepost=1522984002][/doublepost]

I'm waiting for these to come to Mac (/sarcasm):

https://www.zuken.com/en/products/pcb-design/cr-5000
https://www.keysight.com/en/pc-1297113/advanced-design-system-ads?cc=NO&lc=eng
https://www.altium.com/
https://www.cst.com/
https://www.autodesk.com/products/3ds-max/overview
https://www.zuken.com/en/products/pcb-design/cr-5000
MS Office Suite (hate it, use LO in my business internally, but my clients use it, and Office for Mac 2011 soured me on Office inter-compatibility)

not to mention RDP into work machines.

And before anyone asks - I prefer macOS for terminal, Python, general computer usage, web browsing, ssh etc. - and then I run real (pro) sw in a VM. With current Intel Macbooks I can easily integrate into Windows and Linux customer's systems. With an ARM Macbook, Apple will have lost me as a customer.

Same here i prefer Mac for everything, i even use their icloud office suite, which in my opinion is greater than Google Docs. Though i think most stuff you mentioned above minus sarcasm can be run using crossover for office.

 

[Greymacuser]

"Custom Mac Chips" = overpriced chips that are behind everyone else's chips with extra difficulty getting hem replaced or serviced.

 

[Naimfan]

"Custom Mac Chips" = overpriced chips that are behind everyone else's chips with extra difficulty getting hem replaced or serviced.

Sad but true.

 

[Centris 650]

You mean about 12 years? I wouldn’t call that a very long time, to be honest. If you had said 68k to PPC maybe..

I remember that.

 

[Jon L]

Anyway it appears Apple won't be using ARM anyway.

Just curious, where did you see that Apple won't be going ARM?

 

[laz232]

Same here i prefer Mac for everything, i even use their icloud office suite, which in my opinion is greater than Google Docs. Though i think most stuff you mentioned above minus sarcasm can be run using crossover for office.

The type of software I use is 5-50k USD per license - and only supported on Windows etc - there is no support what-so-ever for running that in Crossover - nor can I afford the uncertainty of whether a bug is due running in Crossover.

Also lots of other HW stuff (such as GPIB stuff, SpaceWire interfaces for sat-coms etc) just don't have drivers for macOS.

If x86 is dropped than I will drop the Mac - I just wish there was something enticing to go over to - as I like to say:
OS X is the least worst operating system

 

[Keirasplace]

The type of software I use is 5-50k USD per license - and only supported on Windows etc - there is no support what-so-ever for running that in Crossover - nor can I afford the uncertainty of whether a bug is due running in Crossover.

Also lots of other HW stuff (such as GPIB stuff, SpaceWire interfaces for sat-coms etc) just don't have drivers for macOS.

If x86 is dropped than I will drop the Mac - I just wish there was something enticing to go over to - as I like to say:
OS X is the least worst operating system

If they drop X86, it won't be for high end machines, so why even talk about it. Are you running those things on the MacBook Air?

 

[Michael Goff]

Here's a clip on Windows on ARM for anyone interested:

That’s a bad comparison given how much the A11 spanks the 835.
[doublepost=1523001788][/doublepost]

"Custom Mac Chips" = overpriced chips that are behind everyone else's chips with extra difficulty getting hem replaced or serviced.

Behind everyone? What chip do they have that’s behind anyone?

 

[oldmacs]

If they drop X86, it won't be for high end machines, so why even talk about it. Are you running those things on the MacBook Air?

That would be a great scenario of confusion and stupidity with some software running on some machines and not on others.

 

[maflynn]

If they drop X86, it won't be for high end machines, so why even talk about it. Are you running those things on the MacBook Air?

One of the issues that befell Microsoft with their first foray into running windows on ARM was the fact that there were two classes of applications. Ones that ran on the ARM and those that could run on x86. The latter had quantity and selection on its side. The former had less capable apps. There were other issues to be sure, but that one was a big one.

If Apple embraces two platforms, they will be falling into the same trap. If ARM is the future then there can be no half step or partial measures. They need to fully embrace the change or not change at all.

Also consider how will Apple sell these low-end ARM machines? I could see this turning into some sort of a variation of class-warfare, i.e., those that can afford a "professional" computer vs. those that don't Will the ARM buying consumers feel like second class citizens and will that sort of mentality move them to buy the X86 pro Macs?

I know at this stage, there is more unknown then is known, but embracing a different architecture is not easy, there's no guarantees of success, so the question is what can Apple do to get the consumers to embrace the change

 

[DNichter]

As some have stated, this is a rumor expected to maybe happen 2 years from now. I don't think it's something anyone needs to be worried about right now. Apple (at least at face value, releases would say otherwise) appreciates the Pro segment and wouldn't just leave those people hanging. In the end though, the number of macOS users is so small compared to their iOS platform that I think it's inevitable as to where they put their resources. It probably makes sense just to keep Intel for the dwindling macOS base and add more and more desktop-level features to iOS and the iPad.

 

[oldmacs]

As some have stated, this is a rumor expected to maybe happen 2 years from now. I don't think it's something anyone needs to be worried about right now. Apple (at least at face value, releases would say otherwise) appreciates the Pro segment and wouldn't just leave those people hanging. In the end though, the number of macOS users is so small compared to their iOS platform that I think it's inevitable as to where they put their resources. It probably makes sense just to keep Intel for the dwindling macOS base and add more and more desktop-level features to iOS and the iPad.

It takes a while to transition to a new platform so yeah some of us do need to worry now.

And iPad sales have been declining, the platform as a whole was left stagnating by Apple from circa 2012 till iOS 11. Macs are acatlly showing growth.

It is the iPhone that makes up the iOS numbers.
[doublepost=1523016570][/doublepost]

I wouldn't think so. I think the goal is to create a singular platform for developers to create 1 app that can be applied to different devices. One for touch on the smaller screen (iPhone), one for touch on the larger screen with keyboard support (iPad, maybe mouse support eventually), and one for large screens with point and click (Mac). I think Apple could create tools to do this.

And as I have said, that creates problems. iWork on the Mac got dumbed down all in the name of feature compatibility with iOS devices. There are still features missing now in 2018 that were removed in 2013. If that’s what happens with apple’s own apps then I can only imagine what would happen with others.

 

[thunng8]

It takes a while to transition to a new platform so yeah some of us do need to worry now.

And iPad sales have been declining, the platform as a whole was left stagnating by Apple from circa 2012 till iOS 11. Macs are acatlly showing growth.

Where did you get iPads are declining?

Sure it isn’t as high as at their peak in 2014, but the last 3 quarters iPad revenues and volumes have increased.

 

[DNichter]

It takes a while to transition to a new platform so yeah some of us do need to worry now.

And iPad sales have been declining, the platform as a whole was left stagnating by Apple from circa 2012 till iOS 11. Macs are acatlly showing growth.

It is the iPhone that makes up the iOS numbers.
[doublepost=1523016570][/doublepost]

And as I have said, that creates problems. iWork on the Mac got dumbed down all in the name of feature compatibility with iOS devices. There are still features missing now in 2018 that were removed in 2013. If that’s what happens with apple’s own apps then I can only imagine what would happen with others.

Yes, but this isn't even fact now and I don't expect them to stop selling high end machines on 1/1/2020. You'll have time to make a decision. iPad sales were actually up last quarter, not by a ton, from 13.1 to 13.2 million. Macs were down from 5.4 to 5.1 million. Either way, iOS is the main driver for Apple. This will likely continue as more and more features are added and more and more people move on from macOS. It's like the old truck analogy from Jobs.

I guess that falls on the developers. They don't need to dumb down anything.

 

[oldmacs]

Okay, I will try to work through these questions. You potentially wouldn't have to lose Windows applications. Windows is running on ARM today at limited performance. Maybe 2 years from now it is working much better. If the developer wants to bring that software to this new platform, they will update. If not, they would continue to support on Windows. You wouldn't have to lose access, there would still be a platform supporting it on some level. If not, maybe there is another app that does the same thing. That is up to Apple to manage the transition. If they can maintain proper battery life and performance, than it should be seamless. Again, we are talking about macOS on ARM, not iOS on a Mac. Very different situations. Let's consider the OS stays the same with the same features, it just may need apps to be updated. Lastly, nobody is saying take an iPhone chip and put it in a Mac. This would be a completely different chip made for a laptop/desktop. As of now, we have no idea what Apple is capable of given the proper space/power. I think they have very smart people though in their chip design team and I am sure they can bring something worthwhile to the table.

All in all, your only worry is apps. Which is completely valid, but apps will either need to be updated for ARM or alternatives will need to be found/created. Otherwise, you may need to move to Windows if you are unable to find an alternative. I think the small amount of people in that last bucket is not reason enough to stop Apple from making this transition.

You are missing the point. ARM based windows runs x86 stuff terribly. Better off just emulating x86 windows through MacOS then running windows ARM and having it emulate x86 applications.

If I wanted to find ‘a similar app’ I would find a version now for Mac, but many are irreplaceable. Not to mention games and such.

As I have said time and time again, applications that I use are not going to be updated for ARM. I would be ok with moving on if there were feasible benefits, which would include ARM chips that were so much better than intel that they could perform emulation with no performance hit, but that would decimate any supposed battery life savings.

 

[DNichter]

You are missing the point. ARM based windows runs x86 stuff terribly. Better off just emulating x86 windows through MacOS then running windows ARM and having it emulate x86 applications.

If I wanted to find ‘a similar app’ I would find a version now for Mac, but many are irreplaceable. Not to mention games and such.

As I have said time and time again, applications that I use are not going to be updated for ARM. I would be ok with moving on if there were feasible benefits, which would include ARM chips that were so much better than intel that they could perform emulation with no performance hit, but that would decimate any supposed battery life savings.

Yes, today it's not great. Technology improves, we don't need to just keep doing the same thing over and over and just say, that's it, we have hit peak. No more changes.

You are speaking strictly for yourself and the rest of a very small minority here. Apple needs to think big picture and their biggest user base is iOS. macOS will remain for the pro segment, but that's it.

 

[oldmacs]

Yes, but this isn't even fact now and I don't expect them to stop selling high end machines on 1/1/2020. You'll have time to make a decision. iPad sales were actually up last quarter, not by a ton, from 13.1 to 13.2 million. Macs were down from 5.4 to 5.1 million. Either way, iOS is the main driver for Apple. This will likely continue as more and more features are added and more and more people move on from macOS. It's like the old truck analogy from Jobs.

I guess that falls on the developers. They don't need to dumb down anything.

I need to know now. I’m going to need to buy a new machine in the next year or so and if it needs to be another platform, the earlier I can do it the better. I don’t have truckloads to throw around on machines that will be quickly superceeded.

Any situation where Apple sell a half ARM lineup and half intel will be stupid. They need to do all or nothing for obvious reasons.

iPad sales only began to rise again after years of slumping.

If Mac development is tied to iPhone app development there will be dumbing down.

 

[DNichter]

I need to know now. I’m going to need to buy a new machine in the next year or so and if it needs to be another platform, the earlier I can do it the better. I don’t have truckloads to throw around on machines that will be quickly superceeded.

Any situation where Apple sell a half ARM lineup and half intel will be stupid. They need to do all or nothing for obvious reasons.

iPad sales only began to rise again after years of slumping.

If Mac development is tied to iPhone app development there will be dumbing down.

I don't know what you do for a living, but will a machine you buy in the next year be that far behind in technology when 2020 comes around that your work wouldn't be able to function? If you are using apps from years ago that you can't let go of, I think they would run just fine. Haha Apple's situation right now is selling half ARM (iOS) and half Intel (macOS), it's not that challenging. Maybe they dumb down then? If there is a need for more advanced apps, then people will create them. If not, they don't. Computing is progressing, your old ways of thinking may be left behind.

 

[oldmacs]

Yes, today it's not great. Technology improves, we don't need to just keep doing the same thing over and over and just say, that's it, we have hit peak. No more changes.

I don’t think you quite understand that there isn’t going to be a magic bullet that allows ARM chips to magically run x86 applications with no performance decline.

You are speaking strictly for yourself and the rest of a very small minority here. Apple needs to think big picture and their biggest user base is iOS. macOS will remain for the pro segment, but that's it

So you’ve decided I am a small minority? You also speak only for yourself. In the real world I don’t see many people using iPads for productivity. Sure personal computer use is on the decline but it is due to people using phones.

Yes MacOS is for professionals, or really anyone who needs more than an iPad, The maket for which is declining, so there is no need to screw Macs over for the sake of change.
[doublepost=1523017810][/doublepost]

I don't know what you do for a living, but will a machine you buy in the next year be that far behind in technology when 2020 comes around that your work wouldn't be able to function? If you are using apps from years ago that you can't let go of, I think they would run just fine

You misinterpreted what I wrote. If I buy now and Apple ditches X86, then whether machine I have purchased is a dead computer walking. I still feel sorry for those who bought PPC macs close to the intel switch.

No, old apps that I run now will not run fine on an ARM Mac.

 

[DNichter]

I don’t think you quite understand that there isn’t going to be a magic bullet that allows ARM chips to magically run x86 applications with no performance decline.



So you’ve decided I am a small minority? You also speak only for yourself. In the real world I don’t see many people using iPads for productivity. Sure personal computer use is on the decline but it is due to people using phones.

Yes MacOS is for professionals, or really anyone who needs more than an iPad, The maket for which is declining, so there is no need to screw Macs over for the sake of change.
[doublepost=1523017810][/doublepost]

You misinterpreted what I wrote. If I buy now and Apple ditches X86, then whether machine I have purchased is a dead computer walking. I still feel sorry for those who bought PPC macs close to the intel switch.

No, old apps that I run now will not run fine on an ARM Mac.

I know performance is not where it needs to be, I am saying that it is possible for performance to improve in the next couple years. Yes, you are a small minority. More and more people are relying on iOS as their main computers (iPhone or iPad). Correct, it will remain for professionals, a very small group of Apple users (albeit important). Well then I guess you have a big decision on your hands, maybe Windows is a better option for you. I wouldn't expect old apps to run on an ARM Mac, but I would expect alternatives to be created (many are already on iOS).

 

[oldmacs]

Apple's situation right now is selling half ARM (iOS) and half Intel (macOS), it's not that challenging. Maybe they dumb down then? If there is a need for more advanced apps, then people will create them. If not, they don't. Computing is progressing, your old ways of thinking may be left behind.

Not even remotely the same thing. Different operating system and different platforms. A half half architecture with the same operating system and device sort is lunacy. You end up with apps not running on both, and confusion. Microsoft killed Windows RTM. It was a complete failure.

Different ways of thinking is not equal to ‘old’ thinking.
[doublepost=1523018413][/doublepost]

I know performance is not where it needs to be, I am saying that it is possible for performance to improve in the next couple years. Yes, you are a small minority. More and m

Do you want to explain to me how the performance drop and compatibility issues from emulating and converting code can be completely removed? The basic fact is it is more processor intensive and that consumes more power. It was negated to an extent with Rosetta because Intel Chips were so much faster than PPC - it’s not going to happen with ARM. By 2020, intel’s processors will be better again and Apple will have to somehow make their chips significantly better, even though they’ve never designed desktop processors before. But then you loose all the advantages that ARM supposedly has over intel.
[doublepost=1523018585][/doublepost]

Yes, you are a small minority. More and more people are relying on iOS as their main computers (iPhone or iPad).

Just as you are a small miniority who use iPads for anything more than basic creation.

I would expect alternatives to be created (many are already on iOS).

Why aren’t there fully fledged alternatives to Mac apps on iOS allready? Office for iPad is gimped. iMovie is gimped. So on and so fourth. The only reason iWork isn’t gimped is because apple dumbed down the Mac version instead.

When you rely on applications, finding an alternative isn’t a snap your finger and move solution.

 

[DNichter]

Not even remotely the same thing. Different operating system and different platforms. A half half architecture with the same operating system and device sort is lunacy. You end up with apps not running on both, and confusion. Microsoft killed Windows RTM. It was a complete failure.

Different ways of thinking is not equal to ‘old’ thinking.
[doublepost=1523018413][/doublepost]

Do you want to explain to me how the performance drop and compatibility issues from emulating and converting code can be completely removed? The basic fact is it is more processor intensive and that consumes more power. It was negated to an extent with Rosetta because Intel Chips were so much faster than PPC - it’s not going to happen with ARM. By 2020, intel’s processors will be better again and Apple will have to somehow make their chips significantly better, even though they’ve never designed desktop processors before. But then you loose all the advantages that ARM supposedly has over intel.
[doublepost=1523018585][/doublepost]

Just as you are a small miniority who use iPads for anything more than basic creation.




Why aren’t there fully fledged alternatives to Mac apps on iOS allready? Office for iPad is gimped. iMovie is gimped. So on and so fourth. The only reason iWork isn’t gimped is because apple dumbed down the Mac version instead.

When you rely on applications, finding an alternative isn’t a snap your finger and move solution.

Yea I wouldn't expect them to do that as I agree, RT was a mess. I think they'll likely go all for one platform or keep as is. Depending on the ROI. I understand the performance drop/compatibility issues, I am just not so quick to say it's not possible on ARM or whatever Apple chooses. They have smart people there and will make a good choice. Yes, I am in a small but growing minority, opposed to a small but dying minority. As long as there is iOS, I am good. I don't see that going anywhere. I adapted potentially for this very reason, extreme flexibility. There are plenty of great apps on the iPad already, just depends on the task needed. For people that need to code, no probably not yet, but those aren't the only careers out there. Well that's fine, since the software you need has been around for ages, it will likely work just fine as is for years to come.