Apple Plans to Start Reopening Retail Stores in First Half of April

[Baymowe335]

Then why shut down at all anywhere in the world? 🙄 Obviously people are having trouble protecting themselves from it, else they wouldn’t be dying.

The same could be said about the flu that killed 80,000 Americans and up to 800,000 people in 2018 with up to 1B infections. Perspective is important.

We are going to find out if distancing matters very soon. If it doesn't, the virus is out and we'll have to deal with it like the flu. If it goes anywhere close to 1 in 2 people infected, no closing of stores or anything matters anymore. This is to try to prevent that scenario.
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And a 17 year old with no pre-existing conditions just died in California.

And it's headline news, and still one person. We make decisions based on general facts, not tragedies like this. If I told you an airline crashed, would you never fly again?

There seem to be other circumstances in the 17 year old case.

Questions arise after teen's death was initially linked to coronavirus in California | CNN

California health officials are reevaluating the death of a 17-year-old boy from coronavirus, saying his case is "complex" and needs further investigation.

www.cnn.com

 

[cmaier]

The same could be said about the flu that killed 80,000 Americans and up to 800,000 people in 2018 with up to 1B infections. Perspective is important.

We are going to find out if distancing matters very soon. If it doesn't, the virus is out and we'll have to deal with it like the flu. If it goes anywhere close to 1 in 2 people infected, no closing of stores or anything matters anymore. This is to try to prevent that scenario.
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And it's headline news, and still one person. We make decisions based on general facts, not tragedies like this. If I told you an airline crashed, would you never fly again?

There seem to be other circumstances in the 17 year old case.

Questions arise after teen's death was initially linked to coronavirus in California | CNN

California health officials are reevaluating the death of a 17-year-old boy from coronavirus, saying his case is "complex" and needs further investigation.

www.cnn.com

There were no “circumstances” just as there are none with the Illinois infant who died today.

And the CDC has different numbers than you:

CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza

 

[Baymowe335]

There were no “circumstances” just as there are none with the Illinois infant who died today.

And the CDC has different numbers than you:

CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza

You don't really know what circumstances are around either death, other than what the media reported to you. It's clearly not the norm, sad as it is. You're also talking about 2 people. Decisions and conclusions aren't drawn from single point cases. It's a headline grabber and you're grabbing it.

You're just looking at a different year, which btw is still way worse than COVID 19. Check the 2017-2018 numbers from the CDC. The 1 year "season" spans 2 calendar years. Yeah, I don't just make this stuff up.

CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in U.S., highest death toll in 40 years

CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in U.S., highest death toll in 40 years

The U.S. government estimates that 80,000 Americans died of flu and its complications last winter — the disease's highest death toll in at least four decades.

www.statnews.com

80,000 Americans Died From Flu Last Year

What Is the Flu?

Learn more from WebMD about the flu, including causes, symptoms, types, risk factors, treatment, and prevention.

www.webmd.com

Flu season deaths top 80,000 last year, CDC says

Flu season deaths top 80,000 last year, CDC says

The 2017-2018 flu season was one of the deadliest in decades according to the CDC. An estimated 80,000 Americans died of flu and its complications last winter.

www.cnn.com

Yeah, it's was pretty bad. Let's see how bad this gets. BTW, the flu kills a lot of pregnant women and children, far more than COVID19.

 

[Steve686]

I hope if anything we take away from this is that headlines posted all over a website can influence huge decisions in our lives without looking further than the first and last word of that headline. Sometimes with terrible results.

 

[falainber]

The same could be said about the flu that killed 80,000 Americans and up to 800,000 people in 2018 with up to 1B infections. Perspective is important.

We are going to find out if distancing matters very soon. If it doesn't, the virus is out and we'll have to deal with it like the flu. If it goes anywhere close to 1 in 2 people infected, no closing of stores or anything matters anymore. This is to try to prevent that scenario.

We already know this. Countries that are good at social distancing (Asia) are able to prevent spreading of the virus and minimize the deaths. Countries that are bad at it (Europe, US) fare much much worse. Besides, it's virus. Of course social distancing helps and in absence of the vaccine and/or cure it's the only thins that can prevent mass deaths.

Edit: scientists already modeled covid-19. Their prediction for US is 80,000 deaths by July. That's with social distancing. Without social distancing the number of deaths would reach millions.

 

[Steve686]

We already know this. Countries that are good at social distancing (Asia) are able to prevent spreading of the virus and minimize the deaths. Countries that are bad at it (Europe, US) fare much much worse. Besides, it's virus. Of course social distancing helps and in absence of the vaccine and/or cure it's the only thins that can prevent mass deaths.

Edit: scientists already modeled covid-19. Their prediction for US is 80,000 deaths by July. That's with social distancing. Without social distancing the number of deaths would reach millions.

Has any study taken into account successful treatment of patients with drugs that are available, or being developed within this time frame?

I think if not, that 80,000 worst case scenario will be quite lower.

Problem with models is most don't adjust for change in values when presented publicly.

 

[PickUrPoison]

You don't really know what circumstances are around either death, other than what the media reported to you. It's clearly not the norm, sad as it is. You're also talking about 2 people. Decisions and conclusions aren't drawn from single point cases. It's a headline grabber and you're grabbing it.

You're just looking at a different year, which btw is still way worse than COVID 19. Check the 2017-2018 numbers from the CDC. The 1 year "season" spans 2 calendar years. Yeah, I don't just make this stuff up.

CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in U.S., highest death toll in 40 years

CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in U.S., highest death toll in 40 years

The U.S. government estimates that 80,000 Americans died of flu and its complications last winter — the disease's highest death toll in at least four decades.

www.statnews.com

80,000 Americans Died From Flu Last Year

What Is the Flu?

Learn more from WebMD about the flu, including causes, symptoms, types, risk factors, treatment, and prevention.

www.webmd.com

Flu season deaths top 80,000 last year, CDC says

Flu season deaths top 80,000 last year, CDC says

The 2017-2018 flu season was one of the deadliest in decades according to the CDC. An estimated 80,000 Americans died of flu and its complications last winter.

www.cnn.com

Yeah, it's was pretty bad. Let's see how bad this gets. BTW, the flu kills a lot of pregnant women and children, far more than COVID19.

FWIW, the 2017-2018 stats were updated a few months ago. The previous estimate of 79,000, made in Dec 2018, has been updated to 61,000. 51,000 of those 61,000 deaths were age 65 and older.

Estimated Flu-Related Illnesses, Medical Visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2017–2018 Flu Season | CDC

Links to key resources on the burden of influenza - CDC

www.cdc.gov

I still don’t find it particularly helpful or enlightening to compare COVID-19 to the flu. When was the last time you saw ICUs slammed and refrigerated trucks used to store bodies two months into a flu season? There’s simply nothing to be gained by downplaying the current or potential severity of this outbreak—and plenty to lose.

We know COVID-19:

• is significantly more contagious than seasonal flu
• has a long asymptomatic transmission period unlike seasonal flu
• has no vaccine
• is easily spread through community transmission, since there’s no existing, underlying immunity

We don’t yet have very good data on rates of Infection, complications, hospitalization or mortality.

 

[Baymowe335]

We already know this. Countries that are good at social distancing (Asia) are able to prevent spreading of the virus and minimize the deaths. Countries that are bad at it (Europe, US) fare much much worse. Besides, it's virus. Of course social distancing helps and in absence of the vaccine and/or cure it's the only thins that can prevent mass deaths.

Edit: scientists already modeled covid-19. Their prediction for US is 80,000 deaths by July. That's with social distancing. Without social distancing the number of deaths would reach millions.

I'll take the under. Again, that's a prediction that will have to have significant acceleration in deaths to come true. There are 93 days until July 1. An average of 831 people will need to die every day from now until then with zero improvement in treatment and the assumption the spread is maintained at a rate they have guessed.

Even if that happens, it's a tie for the flu year I referenced.
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FWIW, the 2017-2018 stats were updated a few months ago. The previous estimate of 79,000, made in Dec 2018, has been updated to 61,000. 51,000 of those 61,000 deaths were age 65 and older.

Estimated Flu-Related Illnesses, Medical Visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2017–2018 Flu Season | CDC

Links to key resources on the burden of influenza - CDC

www.cdc.gov

I still don’t find it particularly helpful or enlightening to compare COVID-19 to the flu. When was the last time you saw ICUs slammed and refrigerated trucks used to store bodies two months into a flu season? There’s simply nothing to be gained by downplaying the current or potential severity of this outbreak—and plenty to lose.

We know COVID-19:

• is significantly more contagious than seasonal flu
• has a long asymptomatic transmission period unlike seasonal flu
• has no vaccine
• is easily spread through community transmission, since there’s no existing, underlying immunity

We don’t yet have very good data on rates of Infection, complications, hospitalization or mortality.

OK, 61,000 then...still a lot more. Flu is evidently super contagious as well and super deadly...

We are doing everything we can (including ruining the economy) to stop the spread.

What we also know:

1) The Flu kills way more people annually than have so far died from COVID19. This is open to change, however.
2) The Flu is contagious enough that an estimated 1B cases occur worldwide.
3) Vaccines for the flu aren't used and/or don't work exceptionally well because of the different varieties.
4) Treatments for flu don't work well enough to stop 61,000 people from dying in America. Also somewhat overrated.
5) Heard immunity doesn't stop the flu from doing the damage we know, so it is in some ways overrated and overstated.
6) Mortality for COVID19 is a developing situation and cannot be extrapolated due to un-diagnosed cases. This is a huge factor.

All you have to believe for mortality being similar to the flu in America is something like 10-15X the reported people have COVID19 than currently reported in America. With around 2300 deaths (all reported), that would be a ~0.15% death rate. I have no trouble believing 10X the people reported are infected.

 

[PickUrPoison]

OK, 61,000 then...still a lot more. Flu is evidently super contagious as well and super deadly...

We are doing everything we can (including ruining the economy) to stop the spread.

What we also know:

1) The Flu kills way more people annually than have so far died from COVID19. This is open to change, however.
2) The Flu is contagious enough that an estimated 1B cases occur worldwide.
3) Vaccines for the flu aren't used and/or don't work exceptionally well because of the different varieties.
4) Treatments for flu don't work well enough to stop 61,000 people from dying in America. Also somewhat overrated.
5) Heard immunity doesn't stop the flu from doing the damage we know, so it is in some ways overrated and overstated.
6) Mortality for COVID19 is a developing situation and cannot be extrapolated due to un-diagnosed cases. This is a huge factor.

All you have to believe for mortality being similar to the flu in America is something like 10-15X the reported people have COVID19 than currently reported in America. With around 2300 deaths (all reported), that would be a ~0.15% death rate. I have no trouble believing 10X the people reported are infected.

You seem to be fixated on overall death rate. That will be based on a retrospective analysis; there’s no way to know that yet, so it’s not especially helpful to focus on it when trying to understand what’s happening right now with COVID-19.

The seasonal flu is not especially contagious, with an R0 of 1.3, although it typically has a reasonably high prevalence. The seasonal flu is very well understood, COVID-19 is not. If this were a pandemic flu, it also wouldn’t make much sense to compare it to seasonal flu, just as with COVID-19.

This is nothing like a seasonal flu. As I asked earlier, when was the last time you saw ICUs slammed and refrigerated trucks used to store bodies two months into a flu season? And when was the last time thousands of ventilators were being shipped from the national stockpile, and the government invoked its power to require companies to produce 100,000 more?

This isn’t a media-driven pandemic. The best course of action imo is for politicians and the media to communicate our best understanding of the situation, and for us to make decisions based on science. We tried ignoring the problem for two months, which was extremely detrimental overall.

 

[Baymowe335]

You seem to be fixated on overall death rate. That will be based on a retrospective analysis; there’s no way to know that yet, so it’s not especially helpful to focus on it when trying to understand what’s happening right now with COVID-19.

The seasonal flu is not especially contagious, with an R0 of 1.3, although it typically has a reasonably high prevalence. The seasonal flu is very well understood, COVID-19 is not. If this were a pandemic flu, it also wouldn’t make much sense to compare it to seasonal flu, just as with COVID-19.

This is nothing like a seasonal flu. As I asked earlier, when was the last time you saw ICUs slammed and refrigerated trucks used to store bodies two months into a flu season? And when was the last time thousands of ventilators were being shipped from the national stockpile, and the government invoked its power to require companies to produce 100,000 more?

This isn’t a media-driven pandemic. The best course of action imo is for politicians and the media to communicate our best understanding of the situation, and for us to make decisions based on science. We tried ignoring the problem for two months, which was extremely detrimental overall.

Well, no country handled this extremely well...including China, one of the only countries that is moving on right now.

I think it could have been worse in this country if the China travel wasn't shut down as early as it was, but no one really predicted it was going to get like this...otherwise they wouldn't have done it. Kind of Monday morning quarterbacking now.

I'm only focused on death rates because OTHERS are focused on projecting current death rates and infections to 350M Americans and 7B people worldwide.

All this language about how "well understood" the flu and great vaccines doesn't stop the enormous death tolls and infections around the world. The flu problem is the perspective I think is relevant. No one is comparing the viruses directly The stats with COVID-19 are still largely a projection and we need careful wording from the media to slow panic.

As I said, I support the current cause, but I don't support garbage projections based on early numbers.

"ICUs are slammed" again is more colorful language that describes a handful of places. You and the media make it sound like every hospital is jammed with sick patients and dead bodies are piling up in refrigerators and in the street.

I have a lot of faith in our great drug companies to make a dent in this, sooner than later. Treatments are already looking promising. We are doing the social distancing. We should see some of the fruits of that in the next 10-15 days.

Unknown cases lower mortality and increase the likelihood that we are not as prone to deathly scenarios whiles developing some good immunity.

 

[falainber]

Well, no country handled this extremely well...including China, one of the only countries that is moving on right now.

I think it could have been worse in this country if the China travel wasn't shut down as early as it was, but no one really predicted it was going to get like this...otherwise they wouldn't have done it. Kind of Monday morning quarterbacking now.

I'm only focused on death rates because OTHERS are focused on projecting current death rates and infections to 350M Americans and 7B people worldwide.

All this language about how "well understood" the flu and great vaccines doesn't stop the enormous death tolls and infections around the world. The flu problem is the perspective I think is relevant. No one is comparing the viruses directly The stats with COVID-19 are still largely a projection and we need careful wording from the media to slow panic.

As I said, I support the current cause, but I don't support garbage projections based on early numbers.

"ICUs are slammed" again is more colorful language that describes a handful of places. You and the media make it sound like every hospital is jammed with sick patients and dead bodies are piling up in refrigerators and in the street.

I have a lot of faith in our great drug companies to make a dent in this, sooner than later. Treatments are already looking promising. We are doing the social distancing. We should see some of the fruits of that in the next 10-15 days.

Unknown cases lower mortality and increase the likelihood that we are not as prone to deathly scenarios whiles developing some good immunity.

Our drug companies developed exactly zero drugs for Covid-19, nor could they have done it in such short time. They are still working on a vaccine for SARS (since 2002).

 

[Baymowe335]

Our great drug companies developed exactly zero drugs for Covid-19, nor could they have done it in such short time. They are still working on a vaccine for SARS (since 2002).

There are 12 treatments currently in testing. I have a lot of faith in our drug companies. If there is an incentive to stop this (and there seems to be) it will be stopped.

 

[dazz87]

Guess not.......

 

[ignatius345]

There are only 2,000 cases in all of California and it took a while to get to that point.

Go do yourself a favor and look up "exponential growth" before you go yammering about exaggeration.

 

[cmaier]

Several hundred per day?

There are only 2,000 cases in all of California and it took a while to get to that point.

Yes, there are more infections every day, but no need to exaggerate.

New York City has 13,000 cases which is unfortunate.

This post didn’t age well, thanks to the power of exponential growth.

California: > 6,200 cases
NYC: > 33,000 cases

If you want a state with 2000 cases now you have to go to Connecticut.

Let‘s hope that, thanks to shelters-in-place, that a week from now we find that the growth continued only linearly and not exponentially.

Some more stats, from Santa Clara County:

8% of deaths aged less than 51 Years old.
16%-32% of deaths have no pre-existing condition.
54% of positives less than 51 years old.

In New York City, 5% of deaths are aged 44 or less. Up to a third of them had no pre-existing health problems.

The sooner we stop thinking of this as “it only affects the old and already sick” the better. There’s a difference between “if you are old or sick you’re much more likely to die” and “if you’re young and healthy you’re immune.”

 

[PickUrPoison]

Well, no country handled this extremely well...including China, one of the only countries that is moving on right now.

I think it could have been worse in this country if the China travel wasn't shut down as early as it was, but no one really predicted it was going to get like this...otherwise they wouldn't have done it. Kind of Monday morning quarterbacking now.

I'm only focused on death rates because OTHERS are focused on projecting current death rates and infections to 350M Americans and 7B people worldwide.

All this language about how "well understood" the flu and great vaccines doesn't stop the enormous death tolls and infections around the world. The flu problem is the perspective I think is relevant. No one is comparing the viruses directly The stats with COVID-19 are still largely a projection and we need careful wording from the media to slow panic.

As I said, I support the current cause, but I don't support garbage projections based on early numbers.

"ICUs are slammed" again is more colorful language that describes a handful of places. You and the media make it sound like every hospital is jammed with sick patients and dead bodies are piling up in refrigerators and in the street.

I have a lot of faith in our great drug companies to make a dent in this, sooner than later. Treatments are already looking promising. We are doing the social distancing. We should see some of the fruits of that in the next 10-15 days.

Unknown cases lower mortality and increase the likelihood that we are not as prone to deathly scenarios whiles developing some good immunity.

Can we not spread propaganda and attempt to rewrite history? It’s not helpful.

There are countries who have handled this well. And we did know it would get like this. Many were sounding the alarm even in January, including secretary of HHS by mid-January. COVID-19 was spreading for part of November, in December and in January before the barn door was partially closed Feb. 4 (from China) and then mid-March (from Europe). All of the horses had left the barn and they were thousands of miles away, months prior.

At the end of February (26th)—one month ago—foolish politicians were saying that the 15 cases in the US would soon be at zero. That the virus was under very good control. Little over a month later, we have 140,000+ cases.

Was The Novel Coronavirus Really Sneaky In Its Spread To The U.S.? Experts Say No. - KFF Health News

Public health professionals dismissed the president’s claims that the spread of the coronavirus, in particular, and the threat of a pandemic, in general, snuck up on us as being “simply astonishing” and “simply untrue.”

khn.org

Italy Banned Flights From China Before America - It Didn’t Work

European politicians were blindsided by President Trump's ban on flights from Europe, and they are furious.

www.forbes.com

Do you understand that the current hot spots are the leading edge of the spread here in the US? Yes, there are ICUs that are slammed, and bodies being held in a refrigerated truck. I never said it was like that everywhere, or that dead bodies were piling up in the streets—that’s your wording, not mine.

I’m speaking nothing but fact, so don’t try to lump me in with media propagandists who downplayed this for many weeks before they finally did a 180. I brought up New York specifically to try to get you to understand this is nothing like the seasonal flu. And it’s not, is it?

Acknowledging and dealing with reality isn’t doom and gloom fear mongering, or completely freaking out. You might think it’s helpful to minimize the current situation and outlook, but Pollyanna thinking doesn’t work to protect public health.

It’s better to do too much than too little, and unfortunately there are states right now that still don’t have stay-at-home policies. We’ll likely see those areas peak in May/June, and the citizens of those states are the ones who will pay the price.

And no, the cure (quarantine) isn’t worse than the problem (dying). What’s going to help this economy is getting this virus under control.

 

[Analog Kid]

I'll take the under. Again, that's a prediction that will have to have significant acceleration in deaths to come true. There are 93 days until July 1. An average of 831 people will need to die every day from now until then with zero improvement in treatment and the assumption the spread is maintained at a rate they have guessed.

Even if that happens, it's a tie for the flu year I referenced.

Significant acceleration is a fundamental characteristic of "exponential growth", and the death rate lags infection rate by 3 or 4 weeks, so the current death rate is not at all affected by the current social distancing efforts which are about 2 weeks old in most places.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding what your point is with all the flu comparisons. Why do you keep comparing the current covid-19 to the flu? What information are we supposed to glean from that comparison?

I can't tell if this is a parlor game where we are trying to guess the future, or if you are advocating for a particular policy change.

 

[Baymowe335]

Significant acceleration is a fundamental characteristic of "exponential growth", and the death rate lags infection rate by 3 or 4 weeks, so the current death rate is not at all affected by the current social distancing efforts which are about 2 weeks old in most places.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding what your point is with all the flu comparisons. Why do you keep comparing the current covid-19 to the flu? What information are we supposed to glean from that comparison?

I can't tell if this is a parlor game where we are trying to guess the future, or if you are advocating for a particular policy change.

I think it’s important to keep other viruses like the flu in perspective when we look at impact to health.
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Can we not spread propaganda and attempt to rewrite history? It’s not helpful.

There are countries who have handled this well. And we did know it would get like this. Many were sounding the alarm even in January, including secretary of HHS by mid-January. COVID-19 was spreading for part of November, in December and in January before the barn door was partially closed Feb. 4 (from China) and then mid-March (from Europe). All of the horses had left the barn and they were thousands of miles away, months prior.

At the end of February (26th)—one month ago—foolish politicians were saying that the 15 cases in the US would soon be at zero. That the virus was under very good control. Little over a month later, we have 140,000+ cases.

Was The Novel Coronavirus Really Sneaky In Its Spread To The U.S.? Experts Say No. - KFF Health News

Public health professionals dismissed the president’s claims that the spread of the coronavirus, in particular, and the threat of a pandemic, in general, snuck up on us as being “simply astonishing” and “simply untrue.”

khn.org

Italy Banned Flights From China Before America - It Didn’t Work

European politicians were blindsided by President Trump's ban on flights from Europe, and they are furious.

www.forbes.com

Do you understand that the current hot spots are the leading edge of the spread here in the US? Yes, there are ICUs that are slammed, and bodies being held in a refrigerated truck. I never said it was like that everywhere, or that dead bodies were piling up in the streets—that’s your wording, not mine.

I’m speaking nothing but fact, so don’t try to lump me in with media propagandists who downplayed this for many weeks before they finally did a 180. I brought up New York specifically to try to get you to understand this is nothing like the seasonal flu. And it’s not, is it?

Acknowledging and dealing with reality isn’t doom and gloom fear mongering, or completely freaking out. You might think it’s helpful to minimize the current situation and outlook, but Pollyanna thinking doesn’t work to protect public health.

It’s better to do too much than too little, and unfortunately there are states right now that still don’t have stay-at-home policies. We’ll likely see those areas peak in May/June, and the citizens of those states are the ones who will pay the price.

And no, the cure (quarantine) isn’t worse than the problem (dying). What’s going to help this economy is getting this virus under control.

So you don’t think it could have been worse? Italy is one of the countries not handling it well.

My larger contention is we are not doing well with containing it because not even strong enough measures are in place. The effort to contain is largely a failure.

I just revise my previous statement that some Asian countries did better with containment, but the reasons why are harder to understand. Japan didn’t lockdown. I have been to Japan 4 or 5 times and it’s probably because of their culture more than anything. Clean, rule followers that understand personal space and sacrifice for the greater good.

The Monday morning QB saying we should have done xyz when it was being downplayed is very tough to justify at the time. It’s hard to tell people they can’t leave their house when it‘s 20 cases. At that point, you’re walking a fine line of trying not to induce panic, looking at very early numbers, trying to keep the country running, and trying to keep people safe. So hard...I don’t know. There are a ton of people behind the scenes giving info.

I’m not nearly as scared as most people for 2 reasons:

1) Cases are very likely into the millions in America, agree?
2) While some are dying, the mortality rate is likely far lower due to these undiagnosed cases.

This strongly shows to me this is could be more like the bad flu year where 61,000 Americans died than the current fear level indicates. This doesn’t mean the viruses are the same. We aren’t treating them the same, but the destruction would be similar in terms of lives lost, which is the whole point here.

I told you, I support the social distancing and would support it even more strongly. I only resent the half hearted approach because we are ruining the economy while not even controlling the virus effectively. Way too much flying, traveling, and running around to be effective. I would shut down NY completely.

I talk about the flu only so people have perspective that we haven’t nearly approached that destruction, despite everything that’s been said and projected. The projections are simply absurd.

So all I ask is people don’t get on TV and online to speculate and project the future. It‘s not helpful and it’s logically stupid.

 

[Analog Kid]

I think it’s important to keep other viruses like the flu in perspective when we look at impact to health.

Ok. I agree the flu is an important disease to track, and most years we don’t pay enough attention to it. I‘m not sure I understand why keeping the flu in perspective is important at this moment though when we have a different disease to be focused on. Do you think people aren’t getting their flu shots this year or serious flu cases are being turned away at hospitals?

 

[Baymowe335]

Ok. I agree the flu is an important disease to track, and most years we don’t pay enough attention to it. I‘m not sure I understand why keeping the flu in perspective is important at this moment though when we have a different disease to be focused on. Do you think people aren’t getting their flu shots this year or serious flu cases are being turned away at hospitals?

I’m not sure. I’m talking about perspective for the speculators and projectors that are multiplying 350M Americans times 70% infected times 2% to get a number of dead people. People are doing this on TV. It’s destructive and stupid.

If the flu kills 61,000 Americans and at the end of this, we lose say 60,000 Americans to COVID 19, what would be your conclusion? Our social distancing worked very well? The flu was worse? They were the same? COVID 19 was worse?

I mean, the destruction is way worse because of all the attention it’s gotten, but if the end story is fewer deaths than the flu of 2017-2018, I wouldn’t be surprised.

But others will just say it’s because we socially distanced effectively.

 

[cocky jeremy]

And a 17 year old with no pre-existing conditions just died in California.

As occasionally happens with anything.

No impact? Is the situation in New York City fake news? Have you seen what’s going on there?

A few hundred or thousand people out of what? Like 5 million? Hardly a major impact.

 

[ipponrg]

As occasionally happens with anything.



A few hundred or thousand people out of what? Like 5 million? Hardly a major impact.

That’s because many are doing the social distancing thing. It could be much worse if people were doing what they were doing back when this thing first spread. Then you got people who don’t take it seriously, and this happens:

Brooklyn Ultra-Orthodox Community Faces Spike In Coronavirus Infections, Urgent Care Center Confirms

"We didn't want this cluster to happen because it causes hysteria. The overwhelming response can in turn become a collapse of the health care system."

gothamist.com

I live in NYC.
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I mean, the destruction is way worse because of all the attention it’s gotten, but if the end story is fewer deaths than the flu of 2017-2018, I wouldn’t be surprised.

I see where your head is going, but the problem with your statements is that scientists know a lot about the flu virus. The death rate for flu has an expectation year by year. They hardly know much about this.

 

[retta283]

It's a hard situation to be in. We want to minimize the cases and the CFR, but at the same time we want to keep the economy going.

Given how important sales tax/money collected from properties of open businesses is, shuttering business for months is not going to look good. I do wonder now how much of an effect the lockdowns are going to have, due to how deep in communities the virus already is. Not to say they are a bad idea, but I wonder if it's too late for them to work as intended.

Conjecturing is pointless right now though, it's just a waiting game. I'd still advise everyone to follow their national/provincial guidelines, and once they declare it clear, re-assess the situation.

 

[I7guy]

There are 12 treatments currently in testing. I have a lot of faith in our drug companies. If there is an incentive to stop this (and there seems to be) it will be stopped.

This mornings WSJ discusses J&J plans for a vaccine.

 

[Jimmy James]

As occasionally happens with anything.



A few hundred or thousand people out of what? Like 5 million? Hardly a major impact.

In our prior exchange I laid out the math for how a single person ultimately infects 59,000 people. It’s actually a higher number but let’s play it safe.

You yourself have mocked that the death rate as a measly 1%. So you’re ok with ending the lives of over 500 people.

Here’s something else you said today:

“Good. They'll see I don't care about their stupid "stay at home" BS.”

At the end of the day people with your apparent activities should be charged and imprisoned on manslaughter charges. Regardless of how little you care. Or maybe because of it. It’s sociopathic.