Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.

Gilligan's last elephant

macrumors 65816
Aug 4, 2016
1,214
911
It’s people like you who will allow this to continue to grow and spread.
Nearly 1000 people a day in Italy are dying from this. The mortality rate of this is about 30 times the flu and there is no vaccine and no treatment. It’s a pandemic. I’m sure you’re more knowledgeable about this then the entire CDC, the WHO, all of the scientists and Drs working on this etc. You seriously just compared a year of flu statistics to a couple months of this (the flu is still ongoing simultaneously with this btw). You should really just refrain from commenting on things you literally don’t understand at all.
Regarding your response to others.
It beggars belief that some individuals are playing down Covid-19 and making comparisons to seasonal flu.
Italy have needed to bring in the military to transport corpses. Spain have converted their largest ice rink into a mortuary.
UK is turning an exhibition centre into a 4000 bed field hospital.

Yes. Definately sounds like seasonal flu ?
 

Seanm87

macrumors 68020
Oct 10, 2014
2,112
4,121
Strange decision. Seems to me some of these companies closed to make themselves look good and are now worried about losing money.

Oh well I need to bring my MacBook in to be repaired but I would worry id do that then they would close again and id be screwed.
 

Analog Kid

macrumors G3
Mar 4, 2003
8,810
11,261
Everything being touted by experts is hyperbolic and speculation (and that's all it is...experts guessing) because the data is so incomplete. As more data comes in this looks no more serious that a epidemic seasonal epidemic flu. It matching the same curve/peaks, etc...same ways to pass it on, has a slightly higher contagious rate (but even that is being disputed by more new data), possibly asymptotic spread (which is being questioned since many people cannot remember what they did a few hours ago) etc.

Places like Japan have barely any cases, haven't taken any where near any protocols then we have, and were told they were going to get hammered by this, and nothing like that happened.

So every time something like this comes up, it basically destroys any credible explanation by an expert, but reinforces the statisticians/etc that say again "The experts have no idea what's going to happen"

Unless you give us that feel in this particular way something else than "IT'S NOT THE FLU", like it causes your D--K to fall off if you get it, then basically it's just like any other respiratory virus epidemic/pandemic. That's fact. Just because a car and SUV handle, drive, have some different capabilities, they are still automobiles and overall are similar enough that they get compared to. This isn't a car and a plane were comparing here. It's two automobiles (respiratory virus). Even the CDC calls them...wait for it...Influenza-like Illnesses.

So our response should be measured to those. Right now we're not measured at that level. Destroying the economy in the process.

They will not know the big picture till this is all said and done in a year or more.

The BEST MODEL is the past flu/respiratory epidemics/pandemics from the modern past. They are the most completed picture for this.



It seems you're not clear on the meaning of "expert". I can't know the backgrounds of anybody in this conversation, but from the tone of the conversation so far and based on the assumption that any qualified expert has more important things on their plate right now than arguing in a forum, it's clear that nobody here is a world leading infectious disease expert.

But what I just read you say is "experts don't know everything, therefore my opinion is more reliable than theirs". That's a terrifying world view.

I think it's perfectly reasonable for us to trade facts and data and ensure we all have a common understanding of the situation. I think it's perfectly reasonable to bring to light differing opinions in the medical community. I think it's perfectly reasonable for us to help each other understand why the policies prescribed are what they are and what they mean and what they're trying to achieve. I think it's perfectly reasonable for us to all bring our personal experience into this discussion and talk about what policy tradeoffs we're most comfortable with.

I think it's ridiculous for us to dismiss the opinion of anyone who has trained on and studied infectious disease as a career by saying they're merely guessing and have no idea. They have a better idea and more educated guesses than any of us. The world is still way behind the curve on learning about this disease, and by the nature of infectious disease the effects we measure are often weeks behind the causes, but it is always most responsible to make decisions on the best available information at the time and not throw out all information because it's incomplete.

So arguing where we'd like to see the balance between health outcomes and economic impact is in bounds for me, discussing disagreements in the scientific community is in bounds, but disregarding a scientific consensus based on personal opinion carries no weight for me.
 

sirghost

Cancelled
Jun 22, 2014
165
190
With an overall death rate likely in the range of 0.5% to approximately 2%, about 99% of those infected will not die. But what if 100-200 million become infected? Not many people are ok with a million Americans dying from this.
[automerge]1585136160[/automerge]


And none have said that this would infect 100% of the world, so your numbers are one hell of a stretch here and are an example of exaggeration and causes nothing but panic, which is the whole point here is to not cause unnecessary panic like the media and some politicians and people have done.
[automerge]1585162827[/automerge]
It seems you're not clear on the meaning of "expert". I can't know the backgrounds of anybody in this conversation, but from the tone of the conversation so far and based on the assumption that any qualified expert has more important things on their plate right now than arguing in a forum, it's clear that nobody here is a world leading infectious disease expert.

But what I just read you say is "experts don't know everything, therefore my opinion is more reliable than theirs". That's a terrifying world view.

I think it's perfectly reasonable for us to trade facts and data and ensure we all have a common understanding of the situation. I think it's perfectly reasonable to bring to light differing opinions in the medical community. I think it's perfectly reasonable for us to help each other understand why the policies prescribed are what they are and what they mean and what they're trying to achieve. I think it's perfectly reasonable for us to all bring our personal experience into this discussion and talk about what policy tradeoffs we're most comfortable with.

I think it's ridiculous for us to dismiss the opinion of anyone who has trained on and studied infectious disease as a career by saying they're merely guessing and have no idea. They have a better idea and more educated guesses than any of us. The world is still way behind the curve on learning about this disease, and by the nature of infectious disease the effects we measure are often weeks behind the causes, but it is always most responsible to make decisions on the best available information at the time and not throw out all information because it's incomplete.

So arguing where we'd like to see the balance between health outcomes and economic impact is in bounds for me, discussing disagreements in the scientific community is in bounds, but disregarding a scientific consensus based on personal opinion carries no weight for me.

The experts don’t know wha the final numbers will be when this is all over is the point being made by the person you are replying to.

Not unless they went ahead in time and got those numbers and stats.

Again, all the experts are is doing is making educated GUESSES here.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: OdT22

Steve686

macrumors 68040
Nov 13, 2007
3,881
1,883
US>FL>Miami/Dade>Sunny Isles Beach>Condo
Everything being touted by experts is hyperbolic and speculation (and that's all it is...experts guessing) because the data is so incomplete. As more data comes in this looks no more serious that a epidemic seasonal epidemic flu. It matching the same curve/peaks, etc...same ways to pass it on, has a slightly higher contagious rate (but even that is being disputed by more new data), possibly asymptotic spread (which is being questioned since many people cannot remember what they did a few hours ago) etc.

Places like Japan have barely any cases, haven't taken any where near any protocols then we have, and were told they were going to get hammered by this, and nothing like that happened.

So every time something like this comes up, it basically destroys any credible explanation by an expert, but reinforces the statisticians/etc that say again "The experts have no idea what's going to happen"

Unless you give us that feel in this particular way something else than "IT'S NOT THE FLU", like it causes your D--K to fall off if you get it, then basically it's just like any other respiratory virus epidemic/pandemic. That's fact. Just because a car and SUV handle, drive, have some different capabilities, they are still automobiles and overall are similar enough that they get compared to. This isn't a car and a plane were comparing here. It's two automobiles (respiratory virus). Even the CDC calls them...wait for it...Influenza-like Illnesses.

So our response should be measured to those. Right now we're not measured at that level. Destroying the economy in the process.

They will not know the big picture till this is all said and done in a year or more.

The BEST MODEL is the past flu/respiratory epidemics/pandemics from the modern past. They are the most completed picture for this.




You realize you just described the MacRumors website to a T, right?

Guessing what comes next based on information at hand and previous course of history.

Ironic.
 

sirghost

Cancelled
Jun 22, 2014
165
190
You realize you just described the MacRumors website to a T, right?

Guessing what comes next based on information at hand and previous course of history.

Ironic.
Yup, but we are not talking about the MacRumors website here, we are talking about the spread of a virus here and ALL of the impacts it may or may not have.

My view on this whole reopening of stores is good, open the:in the areas where things have calmed down and are getting back to normal as again, the world can not stay shut down indefinitely as that will lead to more issues then what the lockdown is meant to prevent.

it is this last part that the other side of people are arguing here.
 

sirghost

Cancelled
Jun 22, 2014
165
190
Which is far better information to make decisions on versus the UNEDUCATED guesses of others.

Obviously educated guesses, but people need to stop presenting these “experts” advise has being fact when they are simply opinions and estimates and guesses.

This includes the media and politicians, not just us “regular mass panicked idiots” in this thread.

(I added that last part to file y’all up)
 

Steve686

macrumors 68040
Nov 13, 2007
3,881
1,883
US>FL>Miami/Dade>Sunny Isles Beach>Condo
Yup, but we are not talking about the MacRumors website here, we are talking about the spread of a virus here and ALL of the impacts it may or may not have.

My view on this whole reopening of stores is good, open the:in the areas where things have calmed down and are getting back to normal as again, the world can not stay shut down indefinitely as that will lead to more issues then what the lockdown is meant to prevent.

it is this last part that the other side of people are arguing here.

Which goes to the core of humans.

EVERYTHING we do is pretty much based on educated guesses and previous experience(s). Deadly or not.
 

PickUrPoison

macrumors G3
Sep 12, 2017
8,131
10,720
Sunnyvale, CA
And none have said that this would infect 100% of the world, so your numbers are one hell of a stretch here and are an example of exaggeration and causes nothing but panic, which is the whole point here is to not cause unnecessary panic like the media and some politicians and people have done.
Correct, no one said it would affect 100% of the world. So let’s not bother talking about what no one said.

But which numbers are “one hell of a stretch”? Where is the exaggeration?
[automerge]1585166255[/automerge]
Obviously educated guesses, but people need to stop presenting these “experts” advise has being fact when they are simply opinions and estimates and guesses.

This includes the media and politicians, not just us “regular mass panicked idiots” in this thread.

(I added that last part to file y’all up)
Science is not opinions and guesses, and informed estimates can be made based on actual data.

Guesses and opinion are more your realm, along with foolish politicians who want to downplay the risks to further their own ends. People need to know the facts and be informed based on our best understanding of the science.
 
Last edited:

Speedy2

macrumors 65816
Nov 19, 2008
1,163
254
Italy had a massive influx of returning Chinese workers from Wuhan, Cultural norms such as Grandparents living with families, dense populations and very "touchy" socializations. Every country, city or cultural group is going to have different outcomes. There is no one size fits all here.

You make it sound like it's simply "fate" and "culture" and not something we can control.

So far it seems that decisions taken at the beginning of the outbreak determine the most how the virus spreads. Be asleep at the wheel or play it down, and you'll get a bad outbreak (China, pretty much the whole Western world). Take early strict measures and have a good plan, and you can control it (South Korea, Japan, Singapore).
It doesn't matter much if you live in a "touchy" culture, because the virus is easily transmitted over the air or surfaces.

How can Italy have had 'a massive influx of returning Chinese workers from Wuhan' when the city of Wuhan has been under total lockdown since the middle of January?
Also I highly doubt that grandparents are living with families in the rich Northern part of Italy more than in other European countries. That's more thing of the South where infection numbers are far lower.
[automerge]1585170362[/automerge]
Making decisions on wrong, incorrect or data not applicable is just as bad as making decisions on no data.

Oh dear. Where did u get your degree?

Extrapolation of data happens all the time, in all parts of the economy and science.
It happens because we can't look into the future to get exact data, so we are happy with a good approximation based on past numbers and the laws of physics.
[automerge]1585170756[/automerge]
Fair to say the downside risk is greater, but the data thus far is very encouraging that things like the death rate will end up similar to seasonal flu, transmission rate is also lower than expected. Most importantly, there is huge upside that COVID19 may have over the seasonal flu and that is the early evidence that Hydroxychloroquine and Z-Pack antibiotic will knock it out, which we have nothing similar for seasonal flu. If this is true, and we will know if about a week (New York begins massive deployment of this combo tomorrow thanks to Feds shipping hundreds of thousands of doses), then COVID19 will end in a whimper. Say your prayers!


None of what you're saying is even remotely true.
Please give sources for your claims or they are completely irrelavant.
 
Last edited:

Speedy2

macrumors 65816
Nov 19, 2008
1,163
254
Chinese companies have been investing in the Italian fashion industry for years. They use imported Chinese workers that way the swag can still say "Made in Italy".

Yes. But none of this has anything to do with the Corona virus. Your claim that "there was a massive influx of returning workers from Wuhan" is simply false, and you have nothing to back that up.
 

Neepman

macrumors 6502a
Jul 31, 2008
834
1,204
I ran my own company for over 30 years. I realize that if there are no people to buy my products and services, I also don't eat. There is a fine line between serving others and serving yourself. Allowing the distancing recomendations to lapse and encouraging people to ignore all of the warnings is self serving. Eventually, as has been shown in this pandemic, this is going to rise out of control, it already is. Throwing out social controls for economic gain is unsustainable, and horrifically short sighted.
At some point there will need to be a trade off between people lives and peoples livelihoods. Society just has to negotiate the fair price. Its done all the time. Cars can kill people but we still use and demand them for example.
 
Last edited:

sirghost

Cancelled
Jun 22, 2014
165
190
Correct, no one said it would affect 100% of the world. So let’s not bother talking about what no one said.

But which numbers are “one hell of a stretch”? Where is the exaggeration?
[automerge]1585166255[/automerge]

Science is not opinions and guesses, and informed estimates can be made based on actual data.

Guesses and opinion are more your realm, along with foolish politicians who want to downplay the risks to further their own ends. People need to know the facts and be informed based on our best understanding of the science.
When people are quoting future numbers and possible numbers and not the actual numbers of today, those are guesses. Educated guesses, but guesses none the less.

The stretch I was referring to is the number of people being infected worldwide being 2 million world wide dying from this. I say it is a stretch as that is based on 2% of almost 8 billion people being in the world.
 

sofila

macrumors 65816
Jan 19, 2006
1,144
1,325
Ramtop Mountains
More than a quarter of world human population on lockdown, economy almost flattened to the ground but Macrumors' statesmans, epidemiologists and math geniuses keep on telling that it is an over-reaction to a seasonal flu lookalike. Incredible.

I already know as of now that not even the harsh reality of facts will see them come here to write "I was utterly wrong"
 

PinkyMacGodess

Suspended
Mar 7, 2007
10,271
6,226
Midwest America.
At some point there will need to be a trade off between people lives and peoples livelihoods. Society just has to negotiate the fair price. Its done all the time. Cars can kill people but we still use and demand them for example.

People that are dead can't recover their livelihood.
People that are dead can't work.
People that are dead can't help others.
People that are dead can't pay taxes.
People that are dead have no future.
People that are dead can't get new jobs in the future.

Human life, the workers lives, MUST outweigh the corporate 'life'. I don't have a problem with the air carriers failing. They received major support years ago, and spent that money trying to increase the money paid to management and investors while ignoring their workers. They are parasites. Many other corporations did the same thing. Parasitic corporations DO need to face the music. They exist to serve the public, their customers. Their customers are NOT the shareholders. Their customers are NOT their management. They don't exist to shower those two groups with money, unless their workers are equally valued. I remember the day that changed. In the past, when a company cut jobs, their stock took a hit. Something was wrong, they were failing. Then, suddenly, the drive to move jobs overseas meant that corporations that slashed jobs had their stock spike higher, because it meant that their jobs were being done my 'cheaper labor' and that meant more profit. Happy customers is important. Happy healthy workers is ALSO important.
 

sirghost

Cancelled
Jun 22, 2014
165
190
People that are dead can't recover their livelihood.
People that are dead can't work.
People that are dead can't help others.
People that are dead can't pay taxes.
People that are dead have no future.
People that are dead can't get new jobs in the future.

Human life, the workers lives, MUST outweigh the corporate 'life'. I don't have a problem with the air carriers failing. They received major support years ago, and spent that money trying to increase the money paid to management and investors while ignoring their workers. They are parasites. Many other corporations did the same thing. Parasitic corporations DO need to face the music. They exist to serve the public, their customers. Their customers are NOT the shareholders. Their customers are NOT their management. They don't exist to shower those two groups with money, unless their workers are equally valued. I remember the day that changed. In the past, when a company cut jobs, their stock took a hit. Something was wrong, they were failing. Then, suddenly, the drive to move jobs overseas meant that corporations that slashed jobs had their stock spike higher, because it meant that their jobs were being done my 'cheaper labor' and that meant more profit. Happy customers is important. Happy healthy workers is ALSO important.

And paychecks and money people get is not needed here?

For crying out loud, it takes money to buy and grow food, it takes money for governments to help keep hospitals and what not open, money is necessary here as well.

Without a country working and making things etc the people in it can not afford things they need in order to live as well.

This is nota zero sum thing here whe it comes to fighting the virus or opening countries back up.

Playing this zero sum game like your statement makes it seem you are, is just as wrong as not having done anything to help with this virus.
 
  • Like
Reactions: OdT22

citysnaps

macrumors G4
Oct 10, 2011
11,788
25,532
Here's who I listen to: Dr. Anthony Fauci. Check out his credentials. He's served six US Presidents being on the job since 1984. He holds 44 honorary doctorate degrees and was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2008.

There's no one who has more experience in this field. And he has no problem speaking truth to power. Not bad for a guy 79 years old.
 

sirghost

Cancelled
Jun 22, 2014
165
190
Here's who I listen to: Dr. Anthony Fauci. Check out his credentials. He's served six US Presidents being on the job since 1984. He holds 44 honorary doctorate degrees and was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2008.

There's no one who has more experience in this field. And he has no problem speaking truth to power. Not bad for a guy 79 years old.
And if you JUST watched him on TV, even he agrees that it might be possible to reopen things by the time the current 15 day lockdown in the US over with, and he agrees with the president that we just need to wait and see how things go until then.

Again, this whole deal is not a zero sum game, so stop treating it as such.
 
  • Like
Reactions: OdT22

citysnaps

macrumors G4
Oct 10, 2011
11,788
25,532
And if you JUST watched him on TV, even he agrees that it might be possible to reopen things by the time the current 15 day lockdown in the US over with, and he agrees with the president that we just need to wait and see how things go until then.

Again, this whole deal is not a zero sum game, so stop treating it as such.

...might be possible... Which of course is true.
 

Neepman

macrumors 6502a
Jul 31, 2008
834
1,204
Yes. But none of this has anything to do with the Corona virus. Your claim that "there was a massive influx of returning workers from Wuhan" is simply false, and you have nothing to back that up.
As I said there is plenty of if you seek out peoples personal accounts in blogs etc. The after action report on this will reveal the virus was out and about from Wuhan long before it was being observed.
People that are dead can't recover their livelihood.
People that are dead can't work.
People that are dead can't help others.
People that are dead can't pay taxes.
People that are dead have no future.
People that are dead can't get new jobs in the future.

Human life, the workers lives, MUST outweigh the corporate 'life'. I don't have a problem with the air carriers failing. They received major support years ago, and spent that money trying to increase the money paid to management and investors while ignoring their workers. They are parasites. Many other corporations did the same thing. Parasitic corporations DO need to face the music. They exist to serve the public, their customers. Their customers are NOT the shareholders. Their customers are NOT their management. They don't exist to shower those two groups with money, unless their workers are equally valued. I remember the day that changed. In the past, when a company cut jobs, their stock took a hit. Something was wrong, they were failing. Then, suddenly, the drive to move jobs overseas meant that corporations that slashed jobs had their stock spike higher, because it meant that their jobs were being done my 'cheaper labor' and that meant more profit. Happy customers is important. Happy healthy workers is ALSO important.
I share your utopian view in my dreams but not in my waking hours.
 

cmaier

Suspended
Jul 25, 2007
25,405
33,471
California
Oh, look. A 36 year old high school principal with no apparent pre-existing conditions died. But all the geniuses around here say we just need to identify “vulnerable” old people and quarantine them so the rest of us can go make more money for billionaires.

 
  • Like
Reactions: sirghost
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.