Everything being touted by experts is hyperbolic and speculation (and that's all it is...experts guessing) because the data is so incomplete. As more data comes in this looks no more serious that a epidemic seasonal epidemic flu. It matching the same curve/peaks, etc...same ways to pass it on, has a slightly higher contagious rate (but even that is being disputed by more new data), possibly asymptotic spread (which is being questioned since many people cannot remember what they did a few hours ago) etc.
Places like Japan have barely any cases, haven't taken any where near any protocols then we have, and were told they were going to get hammered by this, and nothing like that happened.
So every time something like this comes up, it basically destroys any credible explanation by an expert, but reinforces the statisticians/etc that say again "The experts have no idea what's going to happen"
Unless you give us that feel in this particular way something else than "IT'S NOT THE FLU", like it causes your D--K to fall off if you get it, then basically it's just like any other respiratory virus epidemic/pandemic. That's fact. Just because a car and SUV handle, drive, have some different capabilities, they are still automobiles and overall are similar enough that they get compared to. This isn't a car and a plane were comparing here. It's two automobiles (respiratory virus). Even the CDC calls them...wait for it...Influenza-like Illnesses.
So our response should be measured to those. Right now we're not measured at that level. Destroying the economy in the process.
They will not know the big picture till this is all said and done in a year or more.
The BEST MODEL is the past flu/respiratory epidemics/pandemics from the modern past. They are the most completed picture for this.
A fiasco in the making? As the #coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data.
www.statnews.com
All the good stuff, caveats, code, and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, and Bayes Theorem & Coronavirus, so go to them fir…
wmbriggs.com