Apple Posts $1 Billion in Profit

[50548]

your foaming-at-the-mouth fanboyism is getting.... annoying. Besides, do you think that Apple is doubling their marketshare every quarter? Let's just say that you are mistaken. By a HUGE margin. Let's assume that Apple doubled their marketshare every quarter in 2006. And let's say that in the beginning of 2006 Apple had a market-share of 2% (a low figure, but still)

so, in 1Q 2006, they had market-share of 2%. In 2Q 2006 they had market-share of 4%. In 3Q 2006 they had 8%. And in the end of 2006, they had 16%.

Let's just say that you are off. By a mile. Yes, Their marketshare is going up. No, they are not doubling their marketshare every quarter. Not even close.

It's annoying, isn't it? But it's good to be a fanboy anyway...worry not.

Of course I am extrapolating when I talk about doubling. But as for market-share on a QUARTERLY basis, I mean that Apple grows MUCH MORE than the rest of the industry, disregarding consolidated figures. As exhaustively said at the conference call, Apple shipments grew something around 30% or 40% (averaging the laptops too), while the overall industry grew something like 8%...the difference is astounding.

And please, those 2% or 3% figures are for the world, perhaps...in the U.S. market Apple has much more than that for a long time already, like 5% percent I would say.

 

[Evangelion]

Of course I am extrapolating when I talk about doubling. But as for market-share on a QUARTERLY basis, I mean that Apple grows MUCH MORE than the rest of the industry, disregarding consolidated figures. As exhaustively said at the conference call, Apple shipments grew something around 30% or 40% (averaging the laptops too), while the overall industry grew something like 8%...the difference is astounding.

And still, the fact remains that while Apple is going up in market-share, the growth is not as fast as you imagine. Again: for the sake of the argument:

Let's say that Company A ships 5 million devices. And company B ships 100 million devices. That would give company A 4.7% market-share, while company B had 95.2% (I rounded the figures a bit, so they are not 100% when put together). Those are actually pretty close to real-life market-share of Mac come to think of it. Anyway, let's assume that Company A is increasing unit-sales by 40% every year, whereas Company B is only increasing by 10%. What would market-share figures look like next year?

Company A: 6%
Company B: 94%

Year after that:

Company A: 7.5%
Company B: 92.5%

Yes, market-share would be going up. But it wouldn't be THAT fast. You make it sound like that it's only a matter of time before Apple will utterly dominate the computing-industry. Fact is that it will take quite a while for that to happen. You fanboyism is clouding your judgement on this issue. Even if Apple had 20% market-share, they still wouldn't dominate the industry.

And please, those 2% or 3% figures are for the world, perhaps...in the U.S. market Apple has much more than that for a long time already, like 5% percent I would say.

I'm well aware of that fact. Like I said, I used 2% only for the sake of the argument, no need to get your panties on a bunch because my hypothetical figure was too low for your liking

 

[gnasher729]

Not necessarily. One must also include the cost of design, development, testing, etc. in the production cost. Therefore no guarantee of high gross margins. Just ask the average software company.

That is not what gross margin means. Gross margin for Leopard for example means: How much better off is Apple if you go to a store, look at a Leopard box for five minutes, pick it up, go to the checkout and pay, vs. the case where you go to a store, look at a Leopard box for five minutes, put it back on the shelve and leave. Gross margin is the amount of money you pay, minus all the cost that Apple has because you bought that one box.

What you mean is profit, and profit is much much lower than gross margin. For example, your development cost for some product could be much too high; you still sell it to get at least some of the loss in development back. But if the gross margin is negative, you better stop selling.

 

[bryanc]

Even if Apple had 20% market-share, they still wouldn't dominate the industry.

From my perspective Apple manages to dominate many aspects of the industry with <5% market-share. I guess it depends on what you mean by 'dominating the industry'.

Cheers

 

[Dont Hurt Me]

Im happy Apple has a Billion in the bank but walk into any store and look for Apple software and its like finding a needle in a haystack. Cross that, a needle in a haystack is much easier to find then Apple software.

 

[lord patton]

Gross margin is the amount of money you pay, minus all the cost that Apple has because you bought that one box.

emphasis added

That sounds like marginal profit.

Gross margin would include development costs, labor, etc (although perhaps not fixed costs like leasing office space).

IMHO

 

[Queso]

Im happy Apple has a Billion in the bank but walk into any store and look for Apple software and its like finding a needle in a haystack. Cross that, a needle in a haystack is much easier to find then Apple software.

Depends where you live. Here in London there's loads of Mac software available in stores. Even HMV does Mac games amongst the Nintendo and XBox stuff.

I can imagine it gets a bit scarcer outside of major cities though.

 

[pilotError]

remember what happened to gateway computers?? they started online got big very fast and opened stores across the usa, then all stores went bust.... but they have a nice online system now.

Gateway stores sucked BIG TIME. My brother bought a machine from the store. He could have gotten the same thing for $200 less online. Their service sucked (at least at this particular store). They didn't want to fix things. At one point, he brought it back to them for a hard drive problem and they sent it back to Gateway. He waited about 3 weeks to get it back. Not exactly customer service.

I have to say, Apple did a great job picking locations in high traffic upscale shopping areas. It has really paid off for them. Everytime I go into the store, there's always a line at the register and people checking them out.

I think it works, because people always go with what they know. They use a Dell at work and never used a Mac, so they buy a Dell. Now that people can see it first hand, things are starting to build a little momentum. They are still expensive compared to the grey box of the month. Its pretty hard to convince someone that the $1400 iMac is better than the $699 PC with 17" Flat panel. For a very large number of folks, that $699 PC is "Good Enough".

Mike...

 

[whooleytoo]

I don't think they ever break it out.

arn

I believe it was alluded to in last quarter's call, someone mentioned revenue from iTMS is now greater than from Apple's desktop sales.

 

[dejo]

I believe it was alluded to in last quarter's call, someone mentioned revenue from iTMS is now greater than from Apple's desktop sales.

"No. Totally. Untrue".

And the numbers show why:

Q4 2006 - Desktops Revenue: $869, Other Music Related Products and Services (which includes iTunes Store): $452

More proof:

Q1 2007 - Desktops Revenue: $955, Other Music Related Products and Services: $634

 

[gwangung]

Which is why it's unusual for Apple to have them, since they are in manufacturing. Any other company in the PC industry would kill to have Apple's margins.

Well, yeah, because in any other manufacturing industry, margins are much closer to where Apple is than with other PC manufacturers (you're barely surviving with 20%).

Hm. Of course it may be that a substantial portion of Apple revenues comes from non-desktop sales....

 

[Abu Reno]

Profits must mean Apple is making money, right? But the stock takes a $5.00 loss!!!!!!!!!

 

[Apple Corps]

BRLawyer & Evangelion - I think this might be of interest:

http://appleinsider.com/article.php?id=2413

Market share drops - stock price drops.

 

[IJ Reilly]

I noticed the drop in Mac sales too, it was 1,610,000 in Q4 2006. And it reverses the trend of the last few years as well. Both Q1 sales in 2005 and 2006 beat their preceding Q4 sales by a healthy margin.

Got a link to those numbers? I don't recall seeing Q1 Mac shipments beating Q4.

Well, yeah, because in any other manufacturing industry, margins are much closer to where Apple is than with other PC manufacturers (you're barely surviving with 20%).

Hm. Of course it may be that a substantial portion of Apple revenues comes from non-desktop sales....

Apple isn't exceptional in earning a substantial proportion of their sales from non-desktop PCs. I believe all of the PC manufacturers are seeing much better growth on the laptop side. Do laptop sales translate into higher margins? I not sure that they do.

 

[Squonk]

Profits must mean Apple is making money, right? But the stock takes a $5.00 loss!!!!!!!!!

Yeah, I don't understand this either. They exceed expectations and now the stock drops... Or is this a correction for the ~+10% surrounding the iPhone hype?

 

[IJ Reilly]

Yeah, I don't understand this either. They exceed expectations and now the stock drops... Or is this a correction for the ~+10% surrounding the iPhone hype?

It's just AAPL. Investing in this company can drive you crazy, if you hope for too much logic.

 

[IJ Reilly]

Did a little research of my own. Mac shippments from 2004-present, by quarter in millions:

2004-Q1 0.829
2004-Q2 0.749
2004-Q3 0.876
2004-Q4 0.836

2005-Q1 1.046
2005-Q2 1.070
2005-Q3 1.182
2005-Q4 1.236

2006-Q1 1.254
2006-Q2 1.112
2006-Q3 1.327
2006-Q4 1.610

2007-Q1 1.606

Mac sale grew sequentially by 25% Q1-2005 over Q4-2004. However, the following year, sequential sales grew by only 1.5% Q1 over Q4. This year, they were down by 0.25%, coming off a record quarter when sales jumped 21% over the previous quarter.

And this, ladies and gentleman, is what has Wall Street in such a tizzy.

 

[Apple Corps]

IJ - stock is now down $4.50 - Apple stock has done great for us but it feels like a lot of the hype was priced in and reality is now setting in regarding the near future. I wish I had held onto it for another day or so, but........

 

[50548]

BRLawyer & Evangelion - I think this might be of interest:

http://appleinsider.com/article.php?id=2413

Market share drops - stock price drops.

Tks Apple Corps...I think Evangelion got my point anyway, my "fanboyism" notwithstanding (which will continue, bien sûr, as this is a MAC rumors site, not Rob Enderle's outfit).

As for the numbers, they either refer to previous periods or the whole world...the article is not that clear at all. Other than that, a growth of 30% against 3% of the rest of industry just blows these conclusions out of the water, which are expressly defined as PRELIMINARY (as much as those "consensus" estimates of 16 million iPods AGAINST REAL 21 million as published by Apple).

Any company growing more than the average in unit sales MUST, by definition, grow its share of the quarterly pie, not to mention the absolute market share, which is much harder to gauge (as Macs remain in use for much longer than crappy PCs).

Or quoting another user from AI, since I am lazy to do my own research after a stressful day at work:

"Apple says they grew at 28%, 3x the industry. That means that they grew marketshare, plain and simple. If they're growing faster than the industry they're gaining marketshare. How can an analyst say something different?

In the US it was much stronger, Apple said they grew 30+% in the US and the US market grew at 3%. That would be a huge market share gain.

I read another report this morning that said Apple market share was up to 4.7%. I don't remember the qualifiers. It was probably in the US market."

SIMPLE AS THAT.

Yeah, I don't understand this either. They exceed expectations and now the stock drops... Or is this a correction for the ~+10% surrounding the iPhone hype?

Actually it's like this: investors wonder about the possibility of FURTHER growth in stock value, based on future predictions of products and innovations.

The problem is that Apple's stock is already very high, and that's why you will see people selling it for some short-term gains, even with very good results...it's natural in this context.

By the way, do you remember that discussion on Apple x Dell market cap? Apple is just at 80 billion, whereas Dell is at a poor 50 billion...hej Mike, don't ya wanna shut it down and give the money back to shareholders?

 

[IJ Reilly]

IJ - stock is now down $4.50 - Apple stock has done great for us but it feels like a lot of the hype was priced in and reality is now setting in regarding the near future. I wish I had held onto it for another day or so, but........

Thanks -- you made my day. I was actually trying to avoid that particular piece of information.

Just try to separate the hype from the reality for any given stock, especially AAPL. Either way, I haven't seen any analyst downgrades or reduced 12-month targets, so I think the numbers looked good to them. Personally, I think anyone who dumps a stock on reports of record revenues and earnings needs to have their head examined -- but what do I know?

 

[macidiot]

Thanks -- you made my day. I was actually trying to avoid that particular piece of information.

Just try to separate the hype from the reality for any given stock, especially AAPL. Either way, I haven't seen any analyst downgrades or reduced 12-month targets, so I think the numbers looked good to them. Personally, I think anyone who dumps a stock on reports of record revenues and earnings needs to have their head examined -- but what do I know?

JP Morgan downgraded and reduced it's earnings outlook. Analyst's name is Snope.

Four others upgraded estimates and price targets. Looks like the avg. target price is around 110.

btw, I think Apple is a screaming buy @ 90.

 

[whooleytoo]

Mac sale grew sequentially by 25% Q1-2005 over Q4-2004. However, the following year, sequential sales grew by only 1.5% Q1 over Q4. This year, they were down by 0.25%, coming off a record quarter when sales jumped 21% over the previous quarter.

And this, ladies and gentleman, is what has Wall Street in such a tizzy.

Those figures look well odd to me - the Q4 2004 figure looks very low. You'd expect the fourth quarter to be the year's highest but it isn't. And that, perhaps, is why the 1st quarter 2005 looks so good by comparison.

(I assume it was due to some product release during '04, or an anticipated release in early '05, but don't know what offhand).

 

[Cinematographer]

You'd expect the fourth quarter to be the year's highest but it isn't.

Apples fiscal year starts in the month of October. So Q1 2005 is the holiday quarter before the 2005 calender year starts.

Apple Inc. has just released Q1 2007 results, which include sales of Oct, Nov and Dec 2006.

 

[Apple Corps]

IJ - I missed about $6 on the run up and missed $6 - $7 of run down. I just purchased 500 shares @ $89.55 (average of several orders). So - after all of my sell and rebuy - net of commission - I'm about where I would have been had I just gone off and had a couple of pints

The stock option manipulation "issues" are a worry. The product pipeline looks STRONG over the next several months. Perhaps Apple is ready to go on Leopard but holding off to "trump" Vista at launch. iLife, iWork are a small plus. iPhone hype will be up / down / up / down....? CS3 will boost sales in the professional market.

I guess we all will stay tuned... It really is a market emotion roller coaster ride - way too many issues, both +/-, to really know what will prevail.

Forgot another big potential - the Beatles on iTunes Apple Inc & Apple Corps - Ivory and Ebony :-0

 

[IJ Reilly]

I guess we all will stay tuned... It really is a market emotion roller coaster ride - way too many issues, both +/-, to really know what will prevail.

The market is breathing fumes most of the time and reacts accordingly. Since we like hanging out on a rumors site, I guess we can't complain too much about that.