dongmin said:
Another idea: gift certificates, gift cards, and allowances that haven't been fully redeemed yet.
Good point.
One thing that should be clarified. It may be $0.99 per song, but it's $9.99 per album. Albums typically have 12-18 songs, so the cost per song can be as low as $0.55.
Apple says that about 40% of iTMS sales are actually album sales, so for every 100 songs sold, about 40 of them were from whole album sales. Doing some rough calculations:
40 album song is =~ 3 albums = 3 * $9.99 = $29.97 in revenue
60 single song downloads = 60 * 0.99 = $59.40 in revenue
so roughly, Apple pulls in about $89.37 in revenue for every 100 songs sold, NOT $99.00.
So if Apple sold 30 million songs during the quarter, we can estimate that songs contributed only $26.81 million in revenue.
So where did the other $46 million come from?
As dongmin suggested, a lot could have been from gift cards and allowances. Audio books were also mentioned, and there are a lot of books that cost $20 or more. Someone suggested payola, but I think Jobs is too smart for that.
In fact, during one conference call, he derided payola specifically when it was brought up by as a question by essentially saying, "Look at our track record. Have we ever sold anything on the Mac desktop? Look at what our Windows competitors have done" [referring to the standard practice of PC companies littering the Windows desktop with icons in exchange for payment]
In fact, taking payola would undermine Apple's bargaining power with the labels greatly so early in the game. Apple would, more or less, be the music industry's bitch by taking bribes before the service has matured. By not taking payola and growing iTMS on its own merits, Apple ends up wielding a huge amount of power over the labels. I suspect the labels are simultaneously salivating with greed and quaking in their boots because of iTMS - salivating because they get more royalties per song sold via iTMS than via CD (Jobs stated as much in public), but quaking in their boots at the notion that within a few years, iTMS could actually be 10% of ALL legitimate music sales worldwide, and unlike CDs,
Apple controls the distribution system 100%.
Anyway, I suspect books are a big contributor - the first quarter Audible was integrated into iTMS, Jobs stated Apple had sold more than 50,000. If you assume an average price (this is a total guess) of $15, that's $7.5 million right there. By now, maybe Apple is selling 100,000 Audible books per quarter, which could add up to $15 million in revenue.
The rest might be unspent allowance or pre-paid iTunes cards sold at Target.
Still, $73 million in revenue for iTMS is pretty damn impressive. It's hard to believe the service is a little more than a year old!