Climate scientists cannot predict the wind, rain, etc tomorrow, they can't predict the the hurricane season, they can't predict snowfall next winter, etc. There is absolutely nothing to verify that current climate models mean anything other than interesting research. Sorry to bust your bubble.
Our local professional weather forecaster uses an American model and a European model, neither agree at all. Its just like the stock market, I can create a mathematical model that predicts tomorrow's stock prices with 90% accuracy based on historical data and yet it won't accurately report tomorrows stock prices.
Part of the problem here is that scientists don't bother to really understand statistics. You can't hunt around for a model and then declare victory when you find it. That is not how statistics work, regardless of what you have been taught.
The other part of the problem is that people tend to find what they are paid to find even if they have to cut corners to protect their income. Now I am not saying that any given climate scientists purposefully (although we now know that a lot do) falsify reports, but they have been trained in school to misuse statistics to prove non-existent facts. It is hard to prove causality, and easy to mistake correlation with causality.
In the medical sciences there are professors at ivy league schools that now believe that 50 to 90 percent of drug studies are not reproducible in followup studies because the statistics were misused and did not prove the research. This is an endemic problem in all research sciences that rely of statistics. In addition, a lay person with a high school diploma can usually read these research studies and invalidate them because the assumptions are often just ignorant. As an engineer and having read 50+ studies that claim to prove man made climate destruction and I stopped reading them because if I applied the logic they used to my engineering work things would fall down, explode, catch fire, fail to work, etc. It is just sloppy work by academics that for what ever reason have turned brain dead. My guess is that the root problem is the money. But who knows. I do know a carpetbagger when I see one and the ones today don't arrive in the dead of night, but come in on the evening news.
Climate scientists cannot predict the wind, rain, etc tomorrow, they can't predict the the hurricane season, they can't predict snowfall next winter, etc. There is absolutely nothing to verify that current climate models mean anything other than interesting research. Sorry to bust your bubble.
Can you tell me exactly how the Russians "Hacked" the election? Are you sure it's a FACT? Have you seen the actual evidence? Wikileaks states the emails from the DNC they published did not come from the Russians. So what exactly was this HACKING?
I'm neither for nor against (human caused) climate change, I think it's fine if people want to be green, but the temperature thing is interesting. According to the data, in the last 100 or more years the global temperature has risen 1C. Really that's it? That's what we are concerned about? That's what we are throwing billions of dollars towards?
There is a fallacy in that argument. What you are sying only proves one thing, that the models are not accurate enough for the granurality or timescales that are being referred to, which probably is not the intent of the models to begin with. The models could be accurate on a completely different timescale, lets say for example - 100 years. That doesn't invalidate the model, the worst case scenario for the model is, it can predict the bounds of predictions, which is good enough to estimate the effect on a best cases basis or a worst cases basis.Our local professional weather forecaster uses an American model and a European model, neither agree at all. Its just like the stock market, I can create a mathematical model that predicts tomorrow's stock prices with 90% accuracy based on historical data and yet it won't accurately report tomorrows stock prices.
Wow, I cannot begin to express how ignorant that comment its. I'll play, what you have there is a PhD dessertation topic on how climate scientists are ignorant about statistics, because statistics are not taught to mathematicians or physicists or climate scientists, it's only the domain of laymen.Part of the problem here is that scientists don't bother to really understand statistics. You can't hunt around for a model and then declare victory when you find it. That is not how statistics work, regardless of what you have been taught.
From where I come from, an engineer from in another field does not add value to the peer-reviews of my work or comment or sign off on analysis reports that were generated in my field. I dont add value to peer-reviews of field that I dont have expertise over. See where I am going with this, your background in your specific field of engineering has little credibility to review of any climate studies, your conclusions are as good as a layman reviewing any other work, which for the most part is of little value or too simplistic.In addition, a lay person with a high school diploma can usually read these research studies and invalidate them because the assumptions are often just ignorant. As an engineer and having read 50+ studies that claim to prove man made climate destruction and I stopped reading them because if I applied the logic they used to my engineering work things would fall down, explode, catch fire, fail to work, etc. It is just sloppy work by academics that for what ever reason have turned brain dead. My guess is that the root problem is the money.
Corals dying (which is happening right now in Australia and many reefs), which means the whole marine animal ecosystem to deteriorate
Ice caps melting (which is happening in both poles, causing islands such as Maldives to be flooded over by water, making it inhabitable)
97% of the scientistic community has reached a consensus that climate change is real (and how man has influence over the rate of change).
"It was the narrative from the beginning. In 1998, [NASA’s James] Hansen made some vague remarks. Newsweek ran a cover that says all scientists agree. Now they never really tell you what they agree on. It is propaganda.”
“So all scientists agree it’s probably warmer now than it was at the end of the Little Ice Age. Almost all Scientists agree that if you add CO2 you will have some warming. Maybe very little warming. But it is propaganda to translate that into it is dangerous and we must reduce CO2 etc.
If you can make an ambiguous remark and you have people who will amplify it ‘they said it not me’ and he response of the political system is to increase your funding, what’s not to like?
If I look through my department, at least half of them keep mum. Just keep on doing your work, trying to figure out how it works.
MIT ‘has just announced that they see this bringing in $300 million bucks. It will support all sorts of things.’"
Actually find it pretty disgusting how everyone thinks their uneducated opinions somehow hold as much water as people qualified in the subject at hand. Science is not the enemy... regardless of your beliefs.
Source? Not that I don't believe you, I have seen that antarctic ice is growing
How did the coral survive when the earths temperature was 3 or 4 degrees higher than it was right now for longer periods?
Source? Not that I don't believe you, I have seen that antarctic ice is growing.
http://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2013/09/Montford-Consensus.pdf"To be part of the “consensus” one need only agree that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas and that human activities have warmed the planet “to some unspecified extent” — both of which are uncontroversial points...Almost everybody involved in the climate debate, including the majority of sceptics, accepts these propositions, so little can be learned from the Cook et al. paper,” writes Montford. “The extent to which the warming in the last two decades of the twentieth century was man-made and the likely extent of any future warming remain highly contentious scientific issues.”
http://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2013/09/Montford-Consensus.pdf
You have been to Antarctica and seen the ice sheets growing?
That's what I mean. People have a certain believe, go quickly over the news of the day and pick up only those things that reinforce their believes. Regardless of source. And Facebook and Google algorithms reinforce this behaviour.
Some parts of the Antarctic ice sheet have indeed seen a modest growth over the last years but overall there is a decline. Some crucial sheets of ice that block huge ice masses are now about to break off and that will accelerate further melting.
North Pole is at an all time low (in recent history) and the Greenland ice sheet is starting to melt as well. Note that this process is irreversible.
Then I guess you should file a petition to ask sites like NASA to stop publishing this consensus.
I asked you for a source. Well here is mine. Funny you should mention NASA:
A new NASA study says that an increase in Antarctic snow accumulation that began 10,000 years ago is currently adding enough ice to the continent to outweigh the increased losses from its thinning glaciers.
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddar...ns-of-antarctic-ice-sheet-greater-than-losses
Please read my post again.
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Source? Not that I don't believe you, I have seen that antarctic ice is growing.
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...ce-sheets-are-melting-faster-and-from-beneath
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v7/n1/full/nclimate3180.html
Want a demonstration of how wrong you are? What planet is the hottest in the solar system? Mercury is closest to the sun... but it isnt' the hottest... not by a wide margin. Venus has a nice thick CO2 atmosphere and it holds in heat so well that it melts lead. That is what atmospheric CO2 does. Earth might have followed Venus except much of the carbon was locked away in the ground.
The footprint for shale gas is greater than that for conventional gas or oil when viewed on any time horizon, but particularly so over 20 years. Compared to coal, the footprint of shale gas is at least 20% greater and perhaps more than twice as great on the 20-year horizon and is comparable when compared over 100 years.
http://www.eeb.cornell.edu/howarth/Howarth et al 2011.pdf
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fracking-would-emit-methane/
http://www.independent.co.uk/enviro...nhouse-gas-emissions-study-says-a6928126.html
http://www.news.cornell.edu/stories/2011/04/fracking-leaks-may-make-gas-dirtier-coal
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Fracking_and_climate_change
https://www.skepticalscience.com/frackingandCO2.html
Click on some of the sourced links from the articleT
These state what can happen not what is currently happening.
We can throw any data to climate change deniers to convince them, but that won't change their minds, because their opinion is grounded in believe, not in facts and science.
Is the Earth round? Yes
Do humans have their roots in evolution? Yes
Does climate change? Yes
Do humans have a cause in current climate change? Yes
If you don't accept any of the above, you are refuting science, you are denying facts for whatever reasons: politics, religion, greed, money, plain stupidity, etc (note that these reasons are NOT mutually exclusive ). And you're all in the same club: people who say no to science. While science is what makes us evolve as humans, it's what makes us understand the universe and lays the foundations for technology, medicine, and so much more in our modern world.
Don't want to accept that? Fine. But please don't hold the rest of us back while we try to move forward. Don't try to influence other people with your "smarts". Don't teach your kids these backward things. Or better: don't reproduce. And don't go and elect somebody that also refuses these same scientific facts.
So do your thing, great your own bubble, do whatever makes you happy, but don't stop the rest of us from moving forward as a society.
When does human life begin?
Is the sex of an individual is determined by a pair of sex chromosomes?
You my friend, are indeed one of the people I was talking about![]()
I'm a climate scientist.
I didn't think you would touch those questions with a ten-foot pole.
I'm genuinely curious, which sub fields of study do you expertise in?