I'm aware of Googles object detection. To conflate that with what Apple is doing is disingenuous, Apple is detecting nudity in the messages app for incoming and outgoing messages. This isn't detecting something in your photos app and telling you its a cat or a dog. While I concede Googles object detection could be added to their own messaging app to accomplish the same goals the alerting feature and all that would be new and not a fully finished idea which is what courts would look at when it comes to how much they would burden a company with a decree.
This is partly how Apple defended themselves against the department of justice in the FBI phone unlocking case. Compelling Apple to spend employee time (which costs money and would delay other product releases) to build in a function to the iPhone that would allow for unlimited attempts at the passcode was an unreasonable request under the 1789 All Writs Act that the DoJ was attempting to use as a bludgeon to get what they wanted. Ultimately the DoJ withdrew the case against Apple without resolution.
Had Apple already created such a feature though, for instance for the CPP of China that could at that time only be used on Chinese sold iPhones you bet the court would have sided with the DoJ almost immediately and ordered Apple to make that firmware accessible to the FBI on North American sold iPhones.
That is the difference, I mean even Apple is arguing against your point here in their own legal situations with the US government.
Do you think "detecting nudity" vs. "detecting a <insert nude body part>" is different? It's not. Deep CNNs are scary good at detecting discrete objects and differentiating between minute details (hot dog vs. penis). I'd encourage you to look through some of the convolutional layers of any decent trained open-source Deep CNN object detector network. What I said was not disingenuous at all. The argument that the alerting feature is some new novel thing is what's disingenuous: there have been many implementations of parental control messaging notifiers (first search result found this:
https://useboomerang.com/2019/11/05/monitor-calls-text-messages-android/). We don't see news about Google being required to provide these things, even though it would be minimal work to enable it. I stand by what I said: if Russia et al wanted these features, it wouldn't have been difficult to get them already, as the technology already exists.
I know there are storage laws in China. And I stand by what I said earlier, they folded to Chinese oppression. They decided that the privacy of their customers had a dollar amount attached to it and they would rather keep selling phones there than to exit the market.
They chose money over privacy and they will continue to do that when the next battle occurs. If the DoJ had won that court case against Apple over the FBI phone Apple would have put the backdoor in the iPhone, they would never stop selling the iPhone in America.
Bit of a flaw here: had they chosen the alternative (to not comply with local jurisdiction), then there would be no Chinese customers' privacy to protect. It's not a mere choosing of privacy of their customers vs. a dollar, it's the choice of customer or no customer.
I don't disagree on your under arching point, though --- if some jurisdiction has laws that require these things, then it's up to Apple to either choose to do business there or not; but they don't have the freedom to just "protect privacy" while ignoring local laws. Any backdoor-enabling laws that affect Apple would affect every smartphone maker.
I highlighted the part that Tim most feared. Well guess what? Apple just did exactly what he feared now it's up to the Governments to request this feature extended to detect in peoples messages whatever they like. Just like how the CPP does in China with WeChat. You can literally not write certain words and phrases in the app, they are blocked by government decree.
Apples stance that messages are end-to-end encrypted and thus cannot be altered by Apple just had a big brick thrown through it that repressive regimes can point to and say "But you detect this in the messages so just build a profile of things we want to detect too".
As you say, China already does this with WeChat, so they know clearly that the tech exists to block keywords/phrases. The argument that Apple has used previously around these issues is that it is a feature within the kernel of the operating system, not a feature that can be attached to certain subgroups of iOS users. If China et al were able to force Apple to make a custom version of iOS for only their citizens, then they already would have.