Apple Reported to Begin Shipping Apple Watch in March, 12-Inch MacBook Air in Early 2015

[kdarling]

I wonder if the places that don't allow mobile phones will stop allowing wearing a watch as well? (especially if new models come out where it's hard to tell the difference between smart and automatic wind...) Will all the judges and lawyers have to remove their fancy watches at the court entrance? And military pilots before entering launch control? Will kids be allowed to look at their "watch" to see how much time they have left taking an exam? Etc.

Yeah, it's like when camera phones were new, or calculators with alphanumeric storage used during testing.

At first few knew about these new technologies, and users could slide by. But not forever.

So I think you're right. As more people become aware of smartwatches, more rules will emerge.

 

[robbyx]

Not sure what one has to do with the other. Or are you saying because YOU don't "get it," it's ill fated launch is already written?

FWIW I've been buying Apple products for 27 years -- perhaps I'm a bit younger than you. I buy the one's that serve my needs/desires and don't buy the other ones. But Apple has customers for those products just the same. I don't dismiss or denigrate the one's I don't buy, I just ignore them as they have zero impact on me or to me.

I'm allowed to have an opinion and Heaven forbid, express it. Even if YOU don't agree. Brush up on your reading comprehension skills. I said the watch is the first Apple product I don't get. There are others that haven't interested me. But I appreciate them. The watch is the first one that doesn't make any sense to me. But I never said that it's ill fated because *I* don't want it. Learn to read.

I think my post makes it pretty clear why I don't think it's going to be a success. It's expensive, nearly twice the price of an iPhone (with contract). Wearables have never taken off. They are a niche market at best. And so far there are no particularly compelling known features of the Apple Watch that don't already exist in other products. Oh sorry, send a heartbeat! That's worth $350!

A company like Pebble can sell a million smart watches and that's a huge success. But if Apple only sells a million watches, it will be a huge failure. Plus Apple has to convince more and more people every quarter to buy a watch. I don't think that's going to happen under even the best of circumstances. A lot of people simply don't wear watches any longer. Apple has to convince them (people like me...and every person in my social circle, as not one wears a watch) to start wearing one again. And most people who do wear watches go for more expensive, designer, hand crafted, mechanical time pieces. Apple needs to convince them that they should buy an Apple Watch instead. I'm not sold on the intersection of fashion and technology that Apple seems to believe will make the Apple Watch a success. I see the smart watch market as a very limited market and a waste of Apple's time and resources. The fanboys will buy it, no doubt. So will the hardcore narcissist Fitbit demographic. But that will hardly translate into mainstream success.

----------

If $349 is "very, VERY expensive" for you, I strongly advise you to not buy one. The Apple Watch is an ancillary tool that should be purchased only by those with sufficient discretionary capital.

Wow. And some people wonder why much of the public views Apple customers as entitled, moneyed d-bags. Exhibit A.

 

[bobob]

At $349, the Apple Watch is among the least expensive devices Apple sells.

 

[robbyx]

At $349, the Apple Watch is among the least expensive devices Apple sells.

Yes, and they don't sell a ton of those products. The product they sell the most of, the one that basically made the company what it is today, is the iPhone. Sure, the cost is higher than the watch, but the consumer doesn't pay that cost up front. They shell out $199 (or less) to get a new phone and have it subsidized or financed by their carrier. So they don't feel like they're buying a $700 phone. And Apple thinks those people are going to spend $350+ on a watch that does a fraction, at best, of what their phone does? You have to be a hardcore Kool-Aid drinker to believe that the Apple Watch will be a huge success.

 

[StyxMaker]

Not for a quite expensive iPhone accessory (hint: vendor-lock-in).

Not for a first version of a new product which probably will be obsolete in a few months.

Apple introducing new versions of a product does not make the older versions 'obsolete'. My iPhone 5 is still working fine. There is nothing about it that's obsolete.

 

[robbyx]

Apple introducing new versions of a product does not make the older versions 'obsolete'. My iPhone 5 is still working fine. There is nothing about it that's obsolete.

That's true. I stuck with my 4 until the 5s. But Apple relies heavily on the iPhone upgrade cycle for its cash flow. The iPhone is Apple's bread and butter and they've done a great job convincing people to get rid of perfectly good phones year after year. Those people line their pockets. But it's all subsidized or financed so the customer doesn't really feel the hit. Are people going to trade in their Apple watch every year? I doubt it.

 

[bobob]

You have to be a hardcore Kool-Aid drinker to believe that the Apple Watch will be a huge success.

Apple will sell 25 million Apple Watches in the first year.

 

[StyxMaker]

I believe Apple watch will wither on the vine. It'll be similar to when Rhumba was for sale, the robotic vacuum cleaner. I sent it back because, I figured, all I needed was yet another device that I have to spend time over the phone with technical support, or pore over forums and articles in the search to find solutions to this or that niggling issue. Having to trouble shoot a laptop and a phone is sufficient for this user, thank you,

I wouldn't use Rhumba as an example of a device 'withering on the vine'. Just because you think it's more trouble than it's worth (I agree with you, I gave the one I purchased to my sister without ever taking it out of the box), doesn't mean that millions of other people won't buy them.

 

[robbyx]

Apple will sell 25 million Apple Watches in the first year.

Image

Ha. Not a chance. Of course the real test isn't going to be how many they sell in the first year but whether or not we see quarter over quarter increase in sales or if all the early adopters make up the majority of first year sales.

 

[StyxMaker]

Go with the Jawbone Up 24 , is discrete,comes in nice colors , has a great app and you can use the JawBone Up or Sleepio or the Health Apps to track your sleep. It lasts for days. I figured that the watch is not intended to go into the fitness bracelet territory at all. The WATCH is a totally different approach to wearables , Apple has a winner here. I don't care about charging it every nite I do that with the phone already . This will be a fun accessory to wear ,plus a fashion statement . It will sold out in seconds .

Im currently using the Up Band 24 and I'm totally happy with it. Jawbone has announced a new band that you will be able to swim with and will have added features such as hart rate monitoring. It will be priced at half of the Apple Watch's lowest price.

 

[bobob]

Ha. Not a chance. Of course the real test isn't going to be how many they sell in the first year but whether or not we see quarter over quarter increase in sales or if all the early adopters make up the majority of first year sales.

What is your prediction?

 

[Chupa Chupa]

I'm allowed to have an opinion and Heaven forbid, express it. Even if YOU don't agree. Brush up on your reading comprehension skills. I said the watch is the first Apple product I don't get.

Yes, you are allowed to have an opinion. No argument there. I merely asked you an honest question what the two had to do with one another. Your response: ad hominem attack. OK, then.

----------

You have to be a hardcore Kool-Aid drinker to believe that the Apple Watch will be a huge success.

Initially or over time? I don't think the initial sales estimates of 20-25m in the first year are off based on the sheer # of iPhone 5, 5S, 5C, 6, and 6Plus in the wild. Just 5% gets Apple there. That isn't a bad base to start from. We'll see what Apple's expectations are during tomorrow's conference call when it give revenue guidance.

 

[robbyx]

What is your prediction?

I honestly have no idea. There are a few hundred million iPhones in use. Will 10% buy the watch? If there's a fantastic top secret feature we haven't heard about, that could convince even doubters like me.

There is clearly a built in market. Look at the people here ready to buy the watch just because it comes from Apple despite the fact that other iPhone friendly smart watches exist. They aren't interested in the features, just buying a new Apple device. Personally I find this silly, but to each his own. As a shareholder, I say buy away!

But what happens when the built in market is exhausted? Can Apple convince the mainstream non-fanboy iPhone owner to plunk down $350+ for a device with limited utility? And can they convince more and more people every quarter to do so? If they weren't hyping it so much, they could have sales along the lines of Apple TV and the market would view it as a success. But now it needs to sell like crazy to squash the Apple can't innovate without Steve talk. Otherwise that narrative gets cemented.

 

[FieldingMellish]

I wouldn't use Rhumba as an example of a device 'withering on the vine'. Just because you think it's more trouble than it's worth (I agree with you, I gave the one I purchased to my sister without ever taking it out of the box), doesn't mean that millions of other people won't buy them.

It'll be another Nest. Let's call it Nesticide.

 

[robbyx]

Yes, you are allowed to have an opinion. No argument there. I merely asked you an honest question what the two had to do with one another. Your response: ad hominem attack. OK, then.

----------



Initially or over time? I don't think the initial sales estimates of 20-25m in the first year are off based on the sheer # of iPhone 5, 5S, 5C, 6, and 6Plus in the wild. Just 5% gets Apple there. That isn't a bad base to start from. We'll see what Apple's expectations are during tomorrow's conference call when it give revenue guidance.

Attack? I said to work on your reading comprehension. And I stand by that given your response to my earlier post. I also don't think Apple is going to offer guidance on an unreleased product.

 

[Chupa Chupa]

Attack? I said to work on your reading comprehension. And I stand by that given your response to my earlier post. I also don't think Apple is going to offer guidance on an unreleased product.

If you are going to demean people by telling them to work on their "reading comprehension," then you should know what an "ad hominem attack" is. Yes, telling someone they have poor reading comprension is a knock on their intelligence. (Not to worry, I was not insulted given the source, and understand it comes from the person making the attack not having any facts to support his/her own point.). But, just so you know, by definition it was an ad hominem attack.

And yes, Apple will give financial guidance tomorrow as always, not on the product (it's not categorized independently anyway) but overall revenue. From there one only needs to do a little match to figure out an approximate % of what Apple attributes to the Apple Watch.

Anyway, you still never answered my original question after all this. Do you have one?

 

[bobob]

Apple will sell 25 million Apple Watches in the first year.

Ha. Not a chance.

What is your prediction?

I honestly have no idea.

Judging by your reaction to my prediction, you must have some idea. When you respond "Ha. Not a chance.", I find it hard to believe you can justify a prediction of over 10 million Apple Watches.

 

[brinary001]

So am I the only one wondering how they're going to release these two huge products? Like are they just going to post on their website what they'll be shipping and say, "Well, here ya go. Enjoy!" Or do you think they'll have a press event or keynote? But this doesn't seem like enough to hold an entire keynote, even in the town hall on campus. There won't be much to talk about when it comes to the rMBA, and we've already seen the Apple Watch quite extensively. Only a couple details remain in the dark on it, but this could easily be outlined on their website.

 

[Keirasplace]

That's true. I stuck with my 4 until the 5s. But Apple relies heavily on the iPhone upgrade cycle for its cash flow. The iPhone is Apple's bread and butter and they've done a great job convincing people to get rid of perfectly good phones year after year. Those people line their pockets. But it's all subsidized or financed so the customer doesn't really feel the hit. Are people going to trade in their Apple watch every year? I doubt it.

Are they really "getting rid" of it. IF you pass it along, sell it, gift it, its still worth something to some one. Most people are on contract and upgrade every two years anyway; not every year. In Canada it used to be 3 years; now down to two. Iphones seemingly have 4 years support. That doesn't sound like something Apple abandons after 1 year so you can buy another one.

Android phones, which traditionally couldn't be upgraded and are of lower build quality are the throwaway ones. Their resale value also isn't so good. Good things they are most often cheaper. Though a whole lot of badly built non upgradeable mid range phones exist that are barely 18 months old.

----------

So am I the only one wondering how they're going to release these two huge products? Like are they just going to post on their website what they'll be shipping and say, "Well, here ya go. Enjoy!" Or do you think they'll have a press event or keynote? But this doesn't seem like enough to hold an entire keynote, even in the town hall on campus. There won't be much to talk about when it comes to the rMBA, and we've already seen the Apple Watch quite extensively. Only a couple details remain in the dark on it, but this could easily be outlined on their website.

The software side is totally in the dark, and a lot of hardware specs are sort of murky. They could easily do a short 30 min event with this. Demonstrating how it actually works with Apple pay will be done for sure.

But, I expect they'll put something else with it; Ipad pro or the new Mac Air.

 

[Ronnoco]

So, this new MacBook Air, will it have a more powerful chipset than the 2013 model or is this more about effeciancy, heat and other non-power related advantages? When I say "power" I mean more power for faster encodes or other processor related projects.
Ok, I know if I want more power why buy an Air? I love the form factor and I'm hoping the new 12" will enhance the very attractive but long in the tooth design and maybe have a nice little power bump, at least in the higher end models.
Some wishful thinking here (at least the way things have been going with it all about heat and battery-life lately). Thanks for any info.

 

[doelcm82]

But what happens when the built in market is exhausted? Can Apple convince the mainstream non-fanboy iPhone owner to plunk down $350+ for a device with limited utility? And can they convince more and more people every quarter to do so?

Yeah, I think they can for a while.

If they weren't hyping it so much, they could have sales along the lines of Apple TV and the market would view it as a success.

You call this "hyping it so much?" The TV commercials haven't even started yet.

But now it needs to sell like crazy to squash the Apple can't innovate without Steve talk. Otherwise that narrative gets cemented.

No. It only has to meet Apple's sales expectations. You're hedging now, so that if it's a modest success, or a solid success, you can say "See, I was right! It's not the biggest selling product of all time, so it's really a failure."

Nothing will squash the "Apple can't innovate without Steve" talk. Apple could become the biggest company in the world (as it did), and people would say it's not enough. Steve Jobs could rise from the grave and there'd be people saying he wasn't as good as the old Steve. You may take that talk seriously, but I don't take you seriously when you do. There was the same kind of talk about Steve himself when he was fully in charge. If you're hoping for something to squash the naysayers, you're not going to have a happy life.

 

[dav1dd]

Not to be a party pooper, but I'm just not interested in these devices. I really wish apple would listen to people on this site and continue developing their desktop line up and focus on making Mac OS 10 as great as it can be. That's what the mac experience is really all about. #

Unfortunately, I think the mac experience has become about making money and not much else. What better way to do it then produce another 'breakthrough' product that everyone 'has to have'? The watch is a money grab

 

[Ubuntu]

I will definitely be holding off until apple watch 2.

My needs:
wear in shower
wear while sleeping so I can track sleep and have a vibrating alarm so I don't wake up my partner.
36 hours battery life so I can wear at night

Really sounds like you'd be better off with a Fitbit.

 

[JDW]

Now if Apple could just shave off the screen bezels like the DELL XPS 13, the new MacBook AIR would be just about perfect. (Only made perfect with the addition of MacBook PRO level "performance," and perhaps a 15" screen option.)

 

[lowendlinux]

Now if Apple could just shave off the screen bezels like the DELL XPS 13, the new MacBook AIR would be just about perfect. (Only made perfect with the addition of MacBook PRO level "performance," and perhaps a 15" screen option.)

I've spent the last week trying to convince myself that I don't want that, but it's not working.