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YES!

Please, people who are considering putting your life savings into Apple stock, read this and understand it.

Putting too much into one stock -- no matter how great it is -- violates what is probably the most important (and simplest) rule of sound investment strategy: DIVERSIFY

And let's face it. While Apple is a great company, the recent run-up in stock price is most likely a bubble fueled by speculators. Bubbles pop. Do you really want to be that dumba** who makes some other guy rich?

Prices of stocks are always either too high or too low, provided you know what they will sell for tomorrow or next week. Which of course you don't. One day we hear that AAPL is undervalued, the next that the stock price is a "bubble waiting to burst." If you've had enough exposure to the stock markets you can only roll your eyes when you hear this kind of talk. It comes from people who are either inexperienced, or are trying to scare you into either buying or selling. Either way, this kind of talk is ignored by experienced investors. They are not trying to guess tomorrow's or next week's price.
 
"An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative." - Benjamin Graham

This quote seems out of context, at least without footnoting. I take it this is a restatement of the risk-return analysis pioneered by Markowitz. The main problem with most investors is that they don't understand the risk portion of the equation (even assuming they comprehend the return part, which they probably don't either). What most investors don't understand is that an opportunity to obtain above above returns is predicated on an exposure to above average risk. You do not get free returns. Constantly rebalanced diversification is the only guaranteed method of optimizing returns for a given level of risk without the requirement that the investor be a lucky guesser.
 
Chasing unsustainable returns is a sure fire way to expose your principal to risk of loss... and that kind of loss compounds over time.

I've held AAPL for several years, and my net return has been fantastic. I disagree that investing in AAPL is not a strategy. I invest in AAPL because I believe in the company (you know, what the stock market is SUPPOSED to be for), not because I want to play the system. But my belief is a long-term strategy that cuts through the dips of speculators, and my trust in AAPL has not been misplaced. If I start to feel differently, I'll pull my money out.
 
What does evaluating what happened after the fact have to do with managing risk before the fact?

You can't go back in time knowing what you know now... so would you focus on trying to predict future performance, or on insulating yourself against excessive risk going forward by finding presently underpriced securities?

Let me put it another way: If we both sold the stock today, but I bought it at a price $100 below the price you did, because I had waited for the right opportunity when the stock was in fact underpriced... who walks away with the bigger return? I do.

All else being equal, there's nothing better about estimating intrinsic value less conservatively than the next guy. The strategy is to be a tightwad in your acquisitions... and to sell to the next guy, not be him.

I find historical perspective is always valuable and cite these as examples of must buy entry points that led to huge gains and in the case of AAPL sustained growth for years.

So I will take a dose of risk management, diversification, and strong growth. It is just as dangerous and irresponsible to adhere to outmoded and limited philosophies as it is to throw money around in a market you do not understand.

Graham is an Icon and no one can deny Buffet's success but neither has the market cornered on safe or sound investing. If Graham works for you great but how much upside are you willing to miss for the illusion of absolute safety?
 
Apple wont pay dividends
Sounds like gambling and not a long time investment.

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I find historical perspective is always valuable and cite these as examples of must buy entry points that led to huge gains and in the case of AAPL sustained growth for years.

So I will take a dose of risk management, diversification, and strong growth. It is just as dangerous and irresponsible to adhere to outmoded and limited philosophies as it is to throw money around in a market you do not understand.

Graham is an Icon and no one can deny Buffet's success but neither has the market cornered on safe or sound investing. If Graham works for you great but how much upside are you willing to miss for the illusion of absolute safety?

AAPL has raised its value about 80% (?) since iPhone 4S came out and it is not sustainable rate.
 
I love apple, but this is getting rediculous. The company just isn't worth that much. It's trading WAY above where it's current profit projections say it should. Expect a 20% correction within a year.

Apple sells very profitable hardware... and a record-breaking number of units too. Plus it's still growing.

If Apple isn't worth it... what company is?
 
Apple wont pay dividends
Sounds like gambling and not a long time investment.

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AAPL has raised its value about 80% (?) since iPhone 4S came out and it is not sustainable rate.

The question isn't if but when does AAPL falter? Next quarter, next year, 2022?
 
The question isn't if but when does AAPL falter? Next quarter, next year, 2022?

It started already Deutch Bank has sold all its AAPL and price dropped todayfrom 600 -> 585 ?

Big financial companies own AAPL stocks, not regular people. It has no affect on the value how normal middle class sells/buys those stocks. They are so small part of AAPL
 
The W, I can stand. The M ...
Don't get me wrong, there's a lot that could happen to make AAPL go south, but investor sentiment is holding it up high. Still, very difficult to believe that the stock has just now begun such a meteoric rise.
 
mother-of-god-meme.jpg
 
its a bubble

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The W, I can stand. The M ...
Don't get me wrong, there's a lot that could happen to make AAPL go south, but investor sentiment is holding it up high. Still, very difficult to believe that the stock has just now begun such a meteoric rise.



AAPL is owned by Banks and trading is made with automatic algorithms with computers mainly.

If suddenly 2-3 banks decide to draw their profits out, the decline will be enormous. It dropped 2% with speculations and will drop 50% when they decide to sell.

And then they will buy them back when the price is dropped enough. It is a game.
 
I'm loving this j-curve

Prepare yourself that it can turn out to be a "W" or maybe "M"

If you're an investor and not a trader then you don't have to worry about the shapes of curves and all that other technical analysis double-talk that pretends to tell you something about the future that nobody else knows. If you don't get all excited by big momentum run-ups then you won't be worried about shakeouts. Both are inevitable, and no matter what anybody tells you, they are events that you can't predict them ahead of time. So if you believe that a company's worth is going to be supported by earnings, then chill out and let other people worry about short term movements.

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its a bubble

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AAPL is owned by Banks and trading is made with automatic algorithms with computers mainly.

If suddenly 2-3 banks decide to draw their profits out, the decline will be enormous. It dropped 2% with speculations and will drop 50% when they decide to sell.

And then they will buy them back when the price is dropped enough. It is a game.

If you're so sure, then short the stock for all you're worth and get back to us on how you did.
 
If you're an investor and not a trader then you don't have to worry about the shapes of curves and all that other technical analysis double-talk that pretends to tell you something about the future that nobody else knows. If you don't get all excited by big momentum run-ups then you won't be worried about shakeouts. Both are inevitable, and no matter what anybody tells you, they are events that you can't predict them ahead of time. So if you believe that a company's worth is going to be supported by earnings, then chill out and let other people worry about short term movements.

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If you're so sure, then short the stock for all you're worth and get back to us on how you did.

No way in hell I will buy any US stocks now when oil-trade will move out of USD

I wait that NOK drops under 3 USD and I'll buy that and forget about it for 10 years. It will grow.

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That proves it. Those funds that pay dividends pump up AAPL too much.

How much it has gone up in last year? 100+ % ?
 
Absolutely true in cosmological terms. The time frame is the real issue, innit?:rolleyes:

Actually NOT true in cosmological terms.

Voyager was rocketed up and has now left our solar system - no indication that it will ever come back down to earth. With dark energy expanding the universe(s) it may not come down anywhere.
 
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