Yeah. I was pleasantly surprised when my portfolio was up over a grand. Had not checked it in a week.
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Apple Shares Drop Below $100 Amid Wider Stock Market Downturn [Updated]
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It is partly because of better than expected results specifically in the tech sector. Google/Alphabet and Amazon have huge profits. Microsoft is cutting another 1000 jobs, which is good news for shareholders (not so much for the employees.)
Also in part because of moves by PBoC, BoE, ECB and BoJ to stimulate their economies. The US is also (highly likely) to put off any raise in interest rates for the time being, good for market investors.
I think with the results coming in soon, Apple will show (as usual) a very large profit, but wether it will meet or surpass expectations is anyones guess.
Either way it could mean a large move in the stock price. (good luck if you are buying)
I was the poster claiming there would be a financial collapse and with it a huge drop in APPL stock price.
I am a little surprised that it hasn't happened yet (and was obviously wrong in my predictions), China in particular took large steps to stop/slow its market crash, including several cuts in interest rates, banning sales of certain stocks, and its own large-scale stock purchases. The US also didn't take the opportunity to raise interest rates in September. Probably a wise decision, but it speaks a lot to the strength of the recovery that even a 0.25% increase is off the table.
The past month or so has seen an increase in underwhelming financial indicators worldwide, but particularly in China.
And there has been an increase in the number of articles in the mainstream news like this:
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/oct/25/the-global-economy-warrants-a-big-dose-of-caution
I know there are always people claiming 'the end is near', and I wasn't one of them.
But I 'do' think things are going to turn for the worse (I am speaking generally here, not about apple specifically, they will likely do a lot better than most) and when it happens the Fed has very little in its bag to deal with it. Not sure if negative interest rates will have the desired effect.
I still see very little cause for optimism..and nothing has changed for me in the past month or so..I am still staying out.
Thats not to say we won't see things go up (again), we may do..but I don't think it will last. If you are buying, good luck to you!
If anyone has any comments I would love to hear.
Window-
I respect the way you think about the markets. I feel that the way that the way the market has "swung" in the last three weeks that if apple posts good results there is no choice BUT for the stock to rise. I have to say that the insane valuations that have been handed out to the companies that have very little to offer in the way of products that there will be a come down at some point. If you have bought apple over 100 Im hoping (as i have purchased some over 100) that we can see a great jump in the coming week. HOWEVER there is a problem when a company that continually posts insane numbers isn't respected on wall st the same as companies that also post numbers but have no "real" products to back it up. Id like to be Long AAPL but when FB GOOG and amazon are realized i have to say that i feel apple will suffer some loss also.
I respect the way you think about the markets. I feel that the way that the way the market has "swung" in the last three weeks that if apple posts good results there is no choice BUT for the stock to rise. I have to say that the insane valuations that have been handed out to the companies that have very little to offer in the way of products that there will be a come down at some point. If you have bought apple over 100 Im hoping (as i have purchased some over 100) that we can see a great jump in the coming week. HOWEVER there is a problem when a company that continually posts insane numbers isn't respected on wall st the same as companies that also post numbers but have no "real" products to back it up. Id like to be Long AAPL but when FB GOOG and amazon are realized i have to say that i feel apple will suffer some loss also.
I think the market reaction was greater than the actual results. Google's revenue was up 13% YOY and the stock jumped over 6%. Last quarter Apple reported YOY revenue growth of 33% and the stock dropped over 4% the next day. Let's see what Amazon stock does once Wall Street starts expecting profits every quarter.
Ok, so it has been a while since anyone posted on this thread, time for a bump and update.
As I type this the Shanghai market has been closed for the second time in a week as it has plunged 7% shortly after opening.
It has also dragged other Asian markets down with it, and through the region markets are down a few percent.
The restrictions on stock sales that were started after the crash in August are due to be lifted this Thursday, so it may be the reason things are starting to plummet again.
I can't see it stopping this time, as the effectiveness of stimulation measures is decreasing.
The Dow also got off to an inauspicious start in 2016, and has been on a downward trajectory.
Apple is flirting with the $100 mark, and has been hit with recent reductions in production.
I have been clear on where I think it is heading, but the vast majority of people on this thread disagree.
I definitely think the tide has turned and things are going to get worse. Although a few down days does not necessarily mean a crash/recession is coming, I am more certain than ever that I was right in my decision to get out of the market and go to cash.
I ma not sure if 'a house of cards' or 'a snowball' is the right word, but I think things will continue to have a knock on effect with each other.
The seemingly endless drop in oil prices, the drop in commodity prices, the slowdown in developing markets, the depreciation of the Yuan, the less then stellar earnings results, the rise in US interest rates, the large levels of debt, and wild-cards such as the recent nuclear test all don't fill me with confidence.
Markets like sure things, and although Apple are making stupid amounts of money (nobody, is saying otherwise) the immediate future seems to indicate a slow down in growth. (although still growing, people still buy iPhones by the bucket-full.) I think there are better investments at this time than AAPL.
(great stock and I will almost certainly get back in a some point, but I think now is the time to sell not buy.)
I was wrong in the timing of the drop, I had expected things to continue the slide after the mini-crash in August, but I wasn't wrong to sell.
I also don't think I am wrong that things are going to get far far worse, not just for AAPL but the DOW in general and other markets and economies.
I am a little unsure on how connected the market and the economy is, but I am pessimistic for both.
If anyone has any thoughts I would be happy to hear them.
For those that have bought recently, do you feel the decision was correct? And if so why?
(Genuinely interested to hear.)
As I type this the Shanghai market has been closed for the second time in a week as it has plunged 7% shortly after opening.
It has also dragged other Asian markets down with it, and through the region markets are down a few percent.
The restrictions on stock sales that were started after the crash in August are due to be lifted this Thursday, so it may be the reason things are starting to plummet again.
I can't see it stopping this time, as the effectiveness of stimulation measures is decreasing.
The Dow also got off to an inauspicious start in 2016, and has been on a downward trajectory.
Apple is flirting with the $100 mark, and has been hit with recent reductions in production.
I have been clear on where I think it is heading, but the vast majority of people on this thread disagree.
I definitely think the tide has turned and things are going to get worse. Although a few down days does not necessarily mean a crash/recession is coming, I am more certain than ever that I was right in my decision to get out of the market and go to cash.
I ma not sure if 'a house of cards' or 'a snowball' is the right word, but I think things will continue to have a knock on effect with each other.
The seemingly endless drop in oil prices, the drop in commodity prices, the slowdown in developing markets, the depreciation of the Yuan, the less then stellar earnings results, the rise in US interest rates, the large levels of debt, and wild-cards such as the recent nuclear test all don't fill me with confidence.
Markets like sure things, and although Apple are making stupid amounts of money (nobody, is saying otherwise) the immediate future seems to indicate a slow down in growth. (although still growing, people still buy iPhones by the bucket-full.) I think there are better investments at this time than AAPL.
(great stock and I will almost certainly get back in a some point, but I think now is the time to sell not buy.)
I was wrong in the timing of the drop, I had expected things to continue the slide after the mini-crash in August, but I wasn't wrong to sell.
I also don't think I am wrong that things are going to get far far worse, not just for AAPL but the DOW in general and other markets and economies.
I am a little unsure on how connected the market and the economy is, but I am pessimistic for both.
If anyone has any thoughts I would be happy to hear them.
For those that have bought recently, do you feel the decision was correct? And if so why?
(Genuinely interested to hear.)
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Windowpain, I agree that economic conditions are deteriorating rapidly worldwide. Apple has peaked as an investment, and due to several factors will likely sell less iPhones than before. I don't think this will show up in the results reported three weeks from now, but from the quarter after.
To me there have been too many economies that were propped up with government debt. There is a fundamental lack of investment by companies in infrastructure due to the globalization of the economy. Companies don't want to commit to large investments in any specific region because of fear they'll lose opportunities for superior investments elsewhere in the future.
The question going forward is where will key investments occur that drive future economies? The advent of the internet, PC sales, the rise of Apple, chip manufacturing, the IT industry, were in assisting in the growth of the economy, but now innovation in these fields appears likely to be more limited.
It's my hope the economy will focus on improving alternative forms of energy. There's an incredible room for improvement in this area, and now we have the technology to make significant strides. Either way, let's hope we find key drivers for the economy in the future because right now things are pretty stagnant.
To me there have been too many economies that were propped up with government debt. There is a fundamental lack of investment by companies in infrastructure due to the globalization of the economy. Companies don't want to commit to large investments in any specific region because of fear they'll lose opportunities for superior investments elsewhere in the future.
The question going forward is where will key investments occur that drive future economies? The advent of the internet, PC sales, the rise of Apple, chip manufacturing, the IT industry, were in assisting in the growth of the economy, but now innovation in these fields appears likely to be more limited.
It's my hope the economy will focus on improving alternative forms of energy. There's an incredible room for improvement in this area, and now we have the technology to make significant strides. Either way, let's hope we find key drivers for the economy in the future because right now things are pretty stagnant.
I sold at about $119, glad I did get out.
Over the last 12 months, Apple and Disney shares have surprised me - if you look at their business models, balance sheets, product line up etc then they are effectively no-brainers. But as others said, it's about PERCEIVED growth (which is ridiculous, frankly). Both are now sub-$100. As long-term holds, it will be a good shout.
Nike and Netflix have at least proven that they can keep growing despite adverse economic conditions.
Tbh I'm starting to cash out of almost half my stocks. Cash is a position! Would rather keep liquid and patient.
Over the last 12 months, Apple and Disney shares have surprised me - if you look at their business models, balance sheets, product line up etc then they are effectively no-brainers. But as others said, it's about PERCEIVED growth (which is ridiculous, frankly). Both are now sub-$100. As long-term holds, it will be a good shout.
Nike and Netflix have at least proven that they can keep growing despite adverse economic conditions.
Tbh I'm starting to cash out of almost half my stocks. Cash is a position! Would rather keep liquid and patient.
It's still too early to tell IMO if we're leading to a major across the board correction. I certainly don't see a recession coming anytime soon too. Got out of Apple at 130 and glad I did, but I'm thinking of buying again when the market bottoms out likely just before Q1 results which will make it rebound.
I'm holding on to other things like Google, Netflix and Nike (which seem pretty recession-proof and haven't shown any signs of slowing growth anytime soon) for the minute. I think this is just a quick panic sell based off no real data. It won't last long.
AAPL has had a 25% correction from the highs. The buy orders should be set at 92, 94, 96 with each level at half.
You should expect a rolling correction in the bull market in most stocks over the course of this year with some indexes seeing 15-25% declines from their mid summer highs in 15.
Buy Disney, Apple, Verizon, Netflix, Facebook, Amazon, heck even Google (Alphabet). Set standing buy levels now for below what they are now and take advantage of momentary crashes. Buy on sale.
Cash is king.
You should expect a rolling correction in the bull market in most stocks over the course of this year with some indexes seeing 15-25% declines from their mid summer highs in 15.
Buy Disney, Apple, Verizon, Netflix, Facebook, Amazon, heck even Google (Alphabet). Set standing buy levels now for below what they are now and take advantage of momentary crashes. Buy on sale.
Cash is king.
I have for a long time been of the opinion that AAPL isn't good to hold. Sold my long-ish-time held shares a while ago. Yes, they've gone up since then, but what I put into S&P500 has also returned very nicely, and it's more secure to have my money there (plus it pays higher dividends). Maybe AAPL is good short term, but you're just gambling if you do that. They're at the top, and they have nowhere to go. I've been so unimpressed with everything they've produced (besides the Mac Pro, but that doesn't get them anywhere). They don't seem to have any clear direction; looks like they're shooting blindly now with all these random products they're coming out with. And everyone gets away with copying anything good that they make. Typical that the guy on top gets beat up. I don't think it's ever good to invest in the most valuable company in the world.
As for the market in general, I didn't like that oil prices were dropping so low without the market caring a couple of months ago. It looks like they care now. But who knows, it could be anything, so I can't really say whether I actually predicted it.
I think the U.S. is going to do well in the long term. The U.S. market is built on a solid foundation. China's isn't. China will probably slow down, and I hope they don't take anyone with them.
What's really on sale is the OIL ETF!
Thanks for the replies, it is good to get other's viewpoint.
Anyway, we are now in mid-February and the economic slide continues to gather pace.
The Nikkei has had a torrid week and was down (at one point) another 5 percent or so.
I think they (the bank of Japan, under orders from Abe) will step in before long and (try to) further devalue the yen..a strong yen is not good for all that overseas earnings. We will see if other countries reciprocate.
Hong Kong is also plunging daily, and once the Chinese market starts up after the New Year break I would imagine 'plummet' will be used in the headlines. A mass stampede to the exits.
I still think we need a 'Lehman' moment, before the real collapse begins, and if I were to hazard a guess I would say either a German bank or the Japanese will set the ball rolling. There is a lot of fall out from the low oil price, and we are only just beginning to see its effects.
I have not mentioned much about Apple, but as I thought, they are doing a little better than most. Certainly the financials have not had a great start to the year. Other tech companies too are a mixed bag.
Once things really start moving though, I would expect AAPL to follow the herd.
In the event of an economic crash, what do you suppose AAPL will be trading at?
The last few weeks should give you a sense that it is certainly a possible scenario (whether you think it is likely is another matter) but I have been fearful of it happening for about six months now, and I exited the market accordingly.
Some on this thread have suggested if you are not shorting, then you are not putting your money where your mouth is, not something I agree with at all. Going to cash is a position, and given recent events a very prudent one.
Good luck to all!
Anyway, we are now in mid-February and the economic slide continues to gather pace.
The Nikkei has had a torrid week and was down (at one point) another 5 percent or so.
I think they (the bank of Japan, under orders from Abe) will step in before long and (try to) further devalue the yen..a strong yen is not good for all that overseas earnings. We will see if other countries reciprocate.
Hong Kong is also plunging daily, and once the Chinese market starts up after the New Year break I would imagine 'plummet' will be used in the headlines. A mass stampede to the exits.
I still think we need a 'Lehman' moment, before the real collapse begins, and if I were to hazard a guess I would say either a German bank or the Japanese will set the ball rolling. There is a lot of fall out from the low oil price, and we are only just beginning to see its effects.
I have not mentioned much about Apple, but as I thought, they are doing a little better than most. Certainly the financials have not had a great start to the year. Other tech companies too are a mixed bag.
Once things really start moving though, I would expect AAPL to follow the herd.
In the event of an economic crash, what do you suppose AAPL will be trading at?
The last few weeks should give you a sense that it is certainly a possible scenario (whether you think it is likely is another matter) but I have been fearful of it happening for about six months now, and I exited the market accordingly.
Some on this thread have suggested if you are not shorting, then you are not putting your money where your mouth is, not something I agree with at all. Going to cash is a position, and given recent events a very prudent one.
Good luck to all!
Wow, I was wrong on the 7th January. There's probably already a recession taking place. But it's certainly not guaranteed. All the indicators make a recession in the next 6 months very likely though.
This doesn't seem like it's going to be anything as bad as 2008 however, most banks seem relatively stable and the entire financial system is certainly more stable than it was in 2008.
Also, this recession won't centre on America so the impact on the stock market will be slightly smaller. Quite a few European banks and certainly China look worrying though.
Just get out of APPL. AAPL lost almost 40% of its value in 2008 (which is a pretty bad comparison seeing as its almost 5x larger) but I expect APPL to reach $60-$70, giving it a crazy low P/E ratio. It's on a downward trend certainly anyway, don't buy until it has flattened out. If you haven't already, short or sell!
Also, with the Fed's limited ability to go into negative rates (both legally and practically) expect them to pump even more QE into the system *sigh* Pumping the asset bubble even bigger. And, in the event of a recession, I really don't see the Euro surviving at all. Yields on Portuguese and Greek bonds have risen, not fallen like in more stable countries. They'll have to be kicked from the Euro or the currency will collapse.
Now I'll come back to this in a month and realise how wrong I was...
Well would you look at that.
Japan had a screamer and was up over 7% today (after losing 11% just last week!), one of the reasons I don't short things.
Anyway, China (surprisingly) finished just slightly down.
The main news was the Japanese GDP figures which were awful, and the Chinese export and import figures which were dreadful.
Japan seems to rallied on the of assumption of further easing and more stimulus coming this way. (news so bad that it is good?)
As it hasn't worked yet, I see little reason it will start working now.
The Japanese economy is a turd that just won't flush, despite the many attempts to poke at it and cajole it down. Still, there is life in the old dog yet, and it lives to fight another day.
I read a few articles claiming that this is the bottom and we are now on the way up.
A little premature if you ask me, and I can't shake the feeling we are only a minor incident from a much larger drop. A week is a long time, and we are sure in for an interesting few days ahead. I would expect more volatility.
During the last GFC China was firing on all cylinders and pulled the rest out of its slump.
Now we have only very slight growth in the Eurozone, Japan contracting, China growth rapidly slowing.
Zero or negative interest rates around the world and the US not exactly booming..
Hard to see what will turn it all around.
Japan had a screamer and was up over 7% today (after losing 11% just last week!), one of the reasons I don't short things.
Anyway, China (surprisingly) finished just slightly down.
The main news was the Japanese GDP figures which were awful, and the Chinese export and import figures which were dreadful.
Japan seems to rallied on the of assumption of further easing and more stimulus coming this way. (news so bad that it is good?)
As it hasn't worked yet, I see little reason it will start working now.
The Japanese economy is a turd that just won't flush, despite the many attempts to poke at it and cajole it down. Still, there is life in the old dog yet, and it lives to fight another day.
I read a few articles claiming that this is the bottom and we are now on the way up.
A little premature if you ask me, and I can't shake the feeling we are only a minor incident from a much larger drop. A week is a long time, and we are sure in for an interesting few days ahead. I would expect more volatility.
During the last GFC China was firing on all cylinders and pulled the rest out of its slump.
Now we have only very slight growth in the Eurozone, Japan contracting, China growth rapidly slowing.
Zero or negative interest rates around the world and the US not exactly booming..
Hard to see what will turn it all around.
