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Apple Shares Drop Below $100 Amid Wider Stock Market Downturn [Updated]

I bought at the split. After losing a chunk of my 40% gains and then getting a little bump back up last week I sold it all. So glad I did because the next day it tanked and today is even worse. Came out ahead and will gladly buy again at the lower price if this is just a correction. But I feel weird about things right now. The stuff going on with China seems like more than just a bump in the road. It's kinda scary. Things just feel different this time. China is big enough to tank the global economy and they've been kinda reckless lately. I hope this is just temporary, but my gut says otherwise.
 
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I just accidentally transferred 9k to my credit card instead of my brokerage account... looks like I won't be taking advantage of any trading today.. :(
 
S&P - ES_F futures support @ 1813. Don't try to catch a falling knife.

When there's blood in the streets smart moneys buying, but not yet. Need more blood.
 
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Mac Fly (film) said:
Otherwise known as $700. The stock market is a fools game unless you're an insider.
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I agree. Funny short story;
I went to do some electrical work for a large bank on the morning of their annual conference, (was there to make sure it all went smoothly for the speech). As I was down getting set up, I overheard the workers joke about how when the announcements were made about the strength of the company, jobs, plans going forward etc etc, he said he’d call the other one on his mobile before it was edited and widely actually broadcast on TV so that could decide whether it was worth buying or selling shares.
Although they were having a laugh and a joke at the time it did make me wonder.
 
neuropsychguy said:
That's completely true. Apple's drop isn't unique to Apple and has more to do with broad economic turmoil around the world. Many European economies are weak and China's currency devaluation was a huge blow. This is mostly China's market playing havoc on the rest of the world's markets. There's a lot of panic, you don't get huge drops without it being influenced by panicky investors. The key is to tighten your seat belt, remain calm, and buy more. Start buying broad stock market funds and, if you know what you're doing, selected individual stocks. Many major tech stocks are down 7+% (AAPL, FB, GOOG, TSLA, AMZN). Seriously, this is getting to be a good time to buy. Maybe give it a little time unless you have enough disposable income to ride out the uncertainty (could take years).
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I agree with you except for one other point. Tim Cook says he's betting big on China. China WAS their next gold mine. This shaft closes on the mine if the economy of the country tanks.
 
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JeffyTheQuik said:
With a P/E ratio of 11.69, I'm buying! Big time!

(My personal "normal" for this sector is 16:1...)
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Just out of interest, can I ask what kind of return you are anticipating?
What do you think the stock price will be say, two months from now?

I mean if you think it is going to be higher then you are correct to buy.
Personally, I don't think 100 bucks or whatever is cheap for this market.
I would rather be wrong and miss out on some gains than be wrong and lose my hat.
Each to his/her own though, I wish you luck!
 
neuropsychguy said:
That's completely true. Apple's drop isn't unique to Apple and has more to do with broad economic turmoil around the world. Many European economies are weak and China's currency devaluation was a huge blow. This is mostly China's market playing havoc on the rest of the world's markets. There's a lot of panic, you don't get huge drops without it being influenced by panicky investors. The key is to tighten your seat belt, remain calm, and buy more. Start buying broad stock market funds and, if you know what you're doing, selected individual stocks. Many major tech stocks are down 7+% (AAPL, FB, GOOG, TSLA, AMZN). Seriously, this is getting to be a good time to buy. Maybe give it a little time unless you have enough disposable income to ride out the uncertainty (could take years).
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Agreed. I suspect that the impact of China could be similar to the troubles in the US in 2008, where it rippled through the markets for years. But it was a great time to keep putting money into retirement accounts for the younger people. Ironically, the recession was good for my retirement accounts. My friends who pulled out and waited, against my advice, lost a lot of value in their retirement accounts from it though.

windowpain said:
You have edited your post slightly, but yes, that is what I am saying. A major crash.
If you think I am wrong, you are welcome to hold until things get better.
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So, you are saying we are heading to something far, far worse than the crash of 1929? That was a loss in value of almost 50%, and you are suggesting a crash of over 70% of a loss in value. I don't quite buy it, as I don't think the ingredients are right for such an event. Recession? I could buy it. A prelude to a Great Depression II? No. Not on the current information (and I knew China was going to be trouble for a while).
 
Now shares are bouncing back up from their day lows. They can still drop but a lot of people are buying now and driving up prices.
 
RickInHouston said:
I agree with you except for one other point. Tim Cook says he's betting big on China. China WAS their next gold mine. This shaft closes on the mine if the economy of the country tanks.
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But Cook just said this morning that the last two months in China were great for Apple and in the last two weeks iPhone activations have accelerated. What's concrete evidence do we have that Apple is slowing down in China?
 
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Krevnik said:
So, you are saying we are heading to something far, far worse than the crash of 1929? That was a loss in value of almost 50%, and you are suggesting a crash of over 70% of a loss in value. I don't quite buy it, as I don't think the ingredients are right for such an event. Recession? I could buy it. A prelude to a Great Depression II? No. Not on the current information (and I knew China was going to be trouble for a while).
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I 'may' have over stated the 30bucks (although 50 is imho very likely indeed) but I think we are in for a lot of pain in the next few weeks/months, this is just the start.

Can I ask what you think will stop this rout? What news apart from massively reduced stock prices will entice the market to buy? What good news is there on the horizon.

Do you know why the market has risen for the last 5/6 years? If you do, then I can't understand why you are optimistic... Like I said, just my opinion, if anyone thinks I am dead wrong, I wish you luck on your purchases.
My money is off the table.
 
macduke said:
I bought at the split. After losing a chunk of my 40% gains and then getting a little bump back up last week I sold it all. So glad I did because the next day it tanked and today is even worse. Came out ahead and will gladly buy again at the lower price if this is just a correction. But I feel weird about things right now. The stuff going on with China seems like more than just a bump in the road. It's kinda scary. Things just feel different this time. China is big enough to tank the global economy and they've been kinda reckless lately. I hope this is just temporary, but my gut says otherwise.
Click to expand...
China is really only a major concern if we get to the point of rioting in the streets. The US economy is stable and growing-- minor housing bubble starting, employment improving, corporate capital spending improving-- generally all signs of stability. Europe has issues, especially regarding what it will take to keep the Euro thriving long term. It looks like there might be a minor slowdown, but nothing too major. I personally can't speak to Japan or Korea, but it doesn't seem like anything major there either. Thailand may be on the verge of a major problem, but that is very localized.

All of this generally speaks to a stock market where you would expect stable earnings and PEs of 12-15. The Netflix, Google, Amazon, salesforce types have plenty of room to drop still, but AAPL has a PE of around 11 now, and one third of their market cap in cash.

This is a cyclical problem, not an Apple problem.
 
Lol at people thinking this is about Apple, this is probably the beginning of a global financial crisis to make 2008 look like childs play. The way we responded to the last recession not only didn't set the world on a sutainable course but it has made it even more exposed to these bubbles, all destined to burst. And now, what tools are left to deal with it? Quantitative easing did nothing, we have even less manufacturing in the west relative to GDP than pre-2008 and not only is China not going to save us but it will probably be the trigger point.

For 40 years we have been ignoring the inevitable consequences of neoliberal capitalism, well here's our reward, global economic collapse. Enjoy.

But hey, it was worth a few cheap phones while it lasted, right?
 
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Several people asked, "what can I expect"?

The uncertainty is time.

Place a limit order for about 95 and double the share count at 93 and double again at 91. The recent high was 135 so sometime within the next year you can expect a 45% return plus dividends. A bit better than a bond or the bank. Don't forget to cash in at $135.

You might end up buying again in September with this strategy.

Apply this at relative prices to Apple, Facebook, Disney, Netflix, Salesforce, and some of the larger bio stocks.

Rocketman
 
windowpain said:
I 'may' have over stated the 30bucks (although 50 is imho very likely indeed)
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May have? There are 5.7b shares of Apple outstanding, and they have $200b in cash. 5.7 * 30 = 171. So at $30/share, the market would be saying that the value of everything else in the company (patents, other IP, brand value, R&D, future earnings, etc) is negative 29 billion.
 
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This is still a bull market. A correction was coming and it's normal to have them. The US isn't in a recession. It's amazing how many say a correction is overdue and write about it all the time. And then when it does comes along, they start writing something else like it's the end of the world.

Today's selling is just panic people had the weekend to mull over. The market has already bounced sharply up from the morning lows. IMO, that was the floor (and the best time to buy back in). I expect the rest of the week will see some sharp increases. And wait til the Fed jumps in as they always do.
 
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