Apples HomePad has not the slightest chance to kill Sonos at this price point with this limited usage possibility. I expect the usual "That's what they said about the iPod, iPhone etc." answer, but this time really IS different. At least if Apple doesn't open up the HomePod to other music services besides AppleMusic.
Either you know nothing about Sonos or you are trolling. Sonos offers a wide variety of home audio components, none of which compete with HomePod. Until Apple offers a HomePod sub, sound bar, surround sound support, and the ability to use one’s own speakers, Sonos has nothing to worry about. I have Sonance speakers built in to my walls and ceilings, all connected to Sonos Connect:Amp boxes. I can’t replicate this setup with HomePod. HomePod isn’t a home audio solution like Sonos offers. It’s an Apple Music accessory.
Sonos is too flexible and open to be a dead man walking.
The threat to Sonos isn't Apple or the homepod. It's their ability to survive in a smart speaker market when they have no meaningful way of distinguishing themselves from the rest of the competition. Being "open" here is more of a liability than an advantage.
I am looking at the whole iOS vs Android fight, how Apple has basically gone on to suck the majority of profits from each of the markets it chooses to compete in, and am struggling not to see a parallel between the homepod and non-Apple-branded hardware.
Let's look at their respective user bases.
For the homepod, the value proposition is clear. Apple has over 30 million Apple Music subscribers, and it is attempting to leverage this to sell homepods. If you use an iPhone and are subscribed to Apple Music, it's assumed that you are also familiar with Siri and the homepod is a natural choice (and pretty much the only choice). Apple might eventually open up the homepod to support Spotify and other music services in the future, but for now, I think it has a large enough user base of iPhone users to market to.
Though looking at how the Apple Watch supports only Apple Music, I don't think it's likely that Apple will open up the homepod to competing music streaming services. I think that Apple's strategy here is becoming increasingly clear - they are going to increasingly leverage on Apple Music to sell more (profitable) hardware. But we will see.
For the Sonos speaker, the target market is shaping up to be a Spotify user who also desires access to Alexa. However, the issue here is that Sonos won't be the only player in the market. If I am not that big on sound quality, or simply want Alexa, or have an existing sound system, I can easily get an Amazon echo for a fraction of the price. What's stopping other companies from also jumping into the market with their own smart speaker offerings?
At the same time, because Sonos is a hardware company without any ecosystem to call its own, it is all but forced to use Alexa in its speakers rather than develop its own voice assistant (because a high-end hardware company is by definition more inclined to suck at services). Sonos is effectively betting the company on being able to differentiate on hardware, and we have all seen how that worked out for multiple industries, not least the smartphone market, where android phone OEMs have seen their margins tank simply because they couldn't sufficiently differentiate their products from the rest of the competition.
Then, you are also assuming that spotify users stay spotify users instead of jumping ship to Apple Music. Airplay 2 will soon be available as well. These are all legitimate threats to Sonos.
To sum it up, I feel that a partnership with Amazon was the best option there was for Sonos, but that doesn't mean this wasn't a faustian bargain. I think that moving forward, we will see the smart speaker market effectively become the speaker market.
The winners here will be Apple (as always), Amazon and Google (to a lesser extent). Hardware companies like Sonos and Bose will soon face competition from all sides that amounts to nothing less than an extinction-level threat. We may in turn see another wave of mergers and acquisitions take place across the industry. Samsung acquired Harman last year, if memory serves me correctly. I wonder who the next casualty will be...
*On a side note, this is why if Spotify were to ever put itself up for sale, Amazon would be my number one guess.