Apple Shipped an Estimated 29 Million iPhone X Devices in Q4 2017

[HobeSoundDarryl]

The headphone jack likely won't ever be back until everything else shrinks and they stop wanting to put more things in there. And no, I am not talking about thickness.

I have no expectations of it coming back- just wish it would... much like people wish for more battery or a better camera.

In lieu, I also wish it would adopt USB3C in place of proprietary Lightning but I don't expect that either.

So the "solution" is the one thrust upon us: carry the dongle everywhere... or go bluetooth but that not work everywhere... or carry multiple wire options... or 2 sets of buds.

Someone might snark back: go buy someone else's phone but that's no "solution" either when one wants so much of the "rest" of an iPhone+iOS.

 

[Michael Goff]

I have no expectations of it coming back- just wish it would... much like people wish for more battery or a better camera.

In lieu, I also wish it would adopt USB3C in place of proprietary Lightning but I don't expect that either.

So the "solution" is the one thrust upon us: carry the dongle everywhere... or go bluetooth but that not work everywhere... or carry multiple wire options... or 2 sets of buds.

Someone might snark back: go buy someone else's phone but that's no "solution" either when one wants so much of the "rest" of an iPhone+iOS.

Switch to USB C would be more likely. But I'd wager they're going to eliminate all ports ASAP. They truly believe wireless is the future.

 

[Shanghaichica]

Touch ID is still more popular than Face ID. This is the only reason Apple keeps selling 2 year old phones!

The figure they won't give you is that the iPhone 7 outsold the iPhone X. And combined, they pummeled the iPhone X!

Or rather the fact that the phones with Touch ID are significantly cheaper than the X with Face ID. I think price is the determining factor here.

 

[Carnegie]

Something did change in the way they handle this accounting, but not being a CPA I wouldn't even attempt to interpret this language, beyond that they do hold back some revenue against speculative future upgrades. How much is that, wonder? The suspicion is not very much. I recall in the past Apple charging for "unlocking" hardware features. They were always token amounts (that nevertheless tended to annoy their customers).

Yes, there have been changes in revenue recognition standards. It used to be that, e.g., almost all iPhone revenue was deferred and recognized over a two-year period. That was in the early days of iPhone sales. But the standard changed such that most iPhone revenue could be recognized at the time of sale. Now only a relatively small portion of iPhone revenue is deferred. Apple is set to change, based on changed standards, how it recognizes revenue next fiscal year. I don't think that change is expected to have a substantial impact though.

Apple has also, in the past, talked about changes in how much revenue it defers from device sales based on changes in how it operates rather than based on changes in accounting standards. As it started offering more services (e.g. iCloud), software (e.g. iWork), and software upgrades (e.g. OS X) at no cost to people with Apple devices, it increased the amount which is deferred from each device sale.

As of the last time I recall Apple providing amounts which were deferred, it was deferring something like $20 per iOS device over a two-year period. Amounts were larger for Macs and they were deferred over a four-year period. We can get an idea of how such deferral affects Apple's reported revenues by looking at the changes in its existing deferred revenue from quarter to quarter.

 

[IJ Reilly]

The point is, you can't speak for it being a "non-issue outside [sic] tech form [sic]" because you lack the data to back up that assertion.

Unless you work in market research AND have done studies on the subject, you're engaging in conjecture. And worse, that conjecture is likely being fueled by your own personal bias.

How do I know? Because you're making blanket statements without any evidence to support them. You cannot speak for the "majority of consumers."

Try being open minded to the idea that some people don't like the noarch even after using it. If it doesn't bother you then that's GREAT. It means you got the phone that's right for you.

But just as some people wish to use their old flip phones while others prefer an Android while others like an iPhone with a physical button, everyone is different. Going around dismissing everyone with a viewpoint that doesn't match yours is just not a good recipe for, well, life.

Is this a private fight, or can anybody join?

Fully recognizing that everybody is different, I am having a hard time wrapping my mind around the idea that any significant number of people would be so offended by the notch that they would not buy an iPhone X for that reason alone, let alone actually buy the phone, and then return it, for that reason alone.

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

Switch to USB C would be more likely. But I'd wager they're going to eliminate all ports ASAP. They truly believe wireless is the future.

It's a long, long way from the present to that future. While they can quickly "skip ahead," audio is one of those things that will still be offering a link ONLY via headphone jack well into the future. It would be nice to keep consumer utility in place between now and when that "the future" actually arrives. Keeping the headphone jack would not impede any other consumer wanting to go ahead and go Lightning and/or Bluetooth- both already worked when iPhones had headphone jacks.

Conceptually we will all be driving electric cars in the future too (or maybe they will be driving us). But I hope the gas stations persist until that technology is so solid and ubiquitous that hardly anyone needs such stations any more. A car cartel deciding to get rid of the stations right now to spur on market adoption of electric cars would not exactly be spun and swallowed so easily. In other words, people don't exactly love the future being forced upon them. Let this better future entice us there with it's obvious superiority.

I fully grasp some collective perception that we have to be pushed into the future. But the gripe is in all the hassles between now and then. I travel a lot. One of my biggest gripes about either the Lightning or Bluetooth option is the incompatibility of either with in-flight entertainment. I have about ZERO expectations of any of the major airlines adopting bluetooth or Lightning for at least 5 years (I actually think NEVER on the latter).

Now multiply that scenario to 1000 other hookups out beyond the boundaries of Macs and iDevices.

It will be great when "the future" arrives, but the hassle between now and then via proactive early adoption is not so desirable to me... especially when it really doesn't bring any particular advantage between now and then.

 

[Carnegie]

Speculation? Historically, return rates to Apple Retail are under 1% but I don't have then numbers for the X.
[doublepost=1516821206][/doublepost]
I'm not going to go into unknowns on exact figures for Apple discounts through channel partners, but what he calculated was entirely wrong at $11B in revenue. He calculated their gross profit based on a 38% gross margin. I was just trying to teach him that revenue = sales.

Your assessment that Apple sells retailers iPhones "meaningfully less" than full MSRP would not be accurate, although NO ONE knows these numbers. I've combed their 10K and it's just not there. There is speculation we are only talking a few percentage points lower than MSRP. Every analyst talks revenue based on street prices for phones.

Furthermore, I work at a fortune 10 company who bought 6,000 iPads at one time. I know the person who did the order personally and he told me Apple gave us a 1% discount off MSRP. He joked he literally could have bought them from the Apple store for practically the same price.

I believe it too because you just have to look at their sales numbers. They aren't giving anything close to deep discounts. If anyone discounts the phones, the carriers and retailers themselves are the ones running the promotions and shrinking their own margins.

This could have changed recently, but I doubt it.

You're right about everything you said though.

I understood why you were responding to 920R. I was going to respond to them to correct what they were saying, but saw that you already had. I mostly wanted to clarify that revenues (and ASPs) aren't based on MSRP.

When I said meaningfully lower, I wasn't suggesting that what Apple gets, on average, is 20 or 30% lower than MSRP. I'd likely have used a different term for that large a difference. It might only be 3% or 8%, but that's a meaningful difference. And, yes, I'm aware such numbers aren't reported; that's why I didn't refer to them with precision. But we can parse the information which is reported so as to be able to say, with a fair bit of confidence, that Apple reports revenues per iPhone which are meaningfully less than MSRP would have them be. The mix of iPhones sold would have to be dramatically different from what we understand them to be in order for ASPs to otherwise be what they are.

 

[Michael Goff]

It's a long, long way from the present to that future. While they can quickly "skip ahead," audio is one of those things that will still be offering a link ONLY via headphone jack well into the future. It would be nice to keep consumer utility in place between now and when that "the future" actually arrives. Keeping the headphone jack would not impede any other consumer wanting to go ahead and go Lightning and/or Bluetooth- both already worked when iPhones had headphone jacks.

Conceptually we will all be driving electric cars in the future too (or maybe they will be driving us). But I hope the gas stations persist until that technology is so solid and ubiquitous that hardly anyone needs such stations any more. A car cartel deciding to get rid of the stations right now to spur on market adoption of electric cars would not exactly be spun and swallowed so easily. In other words, people don't exactly love the future being forced upon them. Let this better future entice us there with it's obvious superiority.

I fully grasp some collective perception that we have to be pushed into the future. But the gripe is in all the hassles between now and then. I travel a lot. One of my biggest gripes about either the Lightning or Bluetooth option is the incompatibility of either with in-flight entertainment. I have about ZERO expectations of any of the major airlines adopting bluetooth or Lightning for at least 5 years (I actually think NEVER on the latter).

Now multiply that scenario to 1000 other hookups out beyond the boundaries of Macs and iDevices.

It will be great when "the future" arrives, but the hassle between now and then via proactive early adoption is not so desirable to me... especially when it really doesn't bring any particular advantage between now and then.

Removing the headphone jack wasn't about us. It was about freeing internal space for them to use and a philosophical problem with ports.

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

I understand. I was there for all that. Of course they would spin removing consumer utility as positive as they can... like sneaking in throttling code to slow down our phones was for our benefit too.

 

[IJ Reilly]

Removing the headphone jack wasn't about us. It was about freeing internal space for them to use and a philosophical problem with ports.

I don't know about the philosophy involved but I do know it was at least in part about meeting a higher water resistance standard. Funny how so many of the change Apple makes to its product designs are greeted with the howling of stuck pigs, then within months, hardly anybody cares because it turned out to be not such a terrible thing after all.

 

[H818H]

Removing the headphone jack wasn't about us. It was about freeing internal space for them to use and a philosophical problem with ports.

I would argue the primary reason was about making more money from iPhone buyers through wireless headphone sales.

Other phones are waterproof/make space for the jack. It's a money making exercise, dressed up as an improved experience for the consumer.

 

[Michael Goff]

I would argue the primary reason was about making more money from iPhone buyers through wireless headphone sales.

Other phones are waterproof/make space for the jack. It's a money making exercise, dressed up as an improved experience for the consumer.

If they sell 20m BT headphones for 160$ (AirPods), it'll be a rounding error. So no, it wasn't about selling headphones. It was about more internal space.

 

[john123]

Is this a private fight, or can anybody join?

Fully recognizing that everybody is different, I am having a hard time wrapping my mind around the idea that any significant number of people would be so offended by the notch that they would not buy an iPhone X for that reason alone, let alone actually buy the phone, and then return it, for that reason alone.

I dunno that it's "significant" or large. Just that it (apparently) can happen. My own intuition agrees with yours--it may be a factor but it's likely not the only factor. (The notch plus the lack of a button together, however, I believe. That combo explains a lot of iPhone 8 sales.)

My beef is with people on here who don't just make sweeping generalizations but go even one step further and insist that everyone believes and acts X or Y way. That's just silliness.

 

[IJ Reilly]

I dunno that it's "significant" or large. Just that it (apparently) can happen. My own intuition agrees with yours--it may be a factor but it's likely not the only factor. (The notch plus the lack of a button together, however, I believe. That combo explains a lot of iPhone 8 sales.)

My beef is with people on here who don't just make sweeping generalizations but go even one step further and insist that everyone believes and acts X or Y way. That's just silliness.

I prefer to sweep my generalizations under the carpet. Please don't tell my wife.

The home button enters into it, you think really? I found that to be all of a five-minute adjustment. After that it feels totally like the right way and the button feels awkward.

I believe iPhone 8 sales can be largely explained by the price differential. Apple knew going into this that they'd need to offer a new phone model for under a grand. Part of the plan, I believe.

 

[s15119]

Good for you. I'm glad that you are happy with a corporate decision made for you.

I happen to not be you and I'd like it back if I had any such say. I'm also very likely not one of only 1% (nor some kind of elitest) that feels that way. While you may rarely fly, I fly a lot. It used to be nice to be able to unplug from iDevices or Macs and into in-flight entertainment equipment without needing dongles. Now it's a hassle. For what? Nothing. As consumers, we gained nothing with this change.

Consider this:

• if I got my way: you and those who feel like you would be entirely unaffected. A jack doesn't inhibit your alternative approach in any way: you could still carry that dongle if you need it and use it as you do now. I- and those like me- would just get a benefit we want too. Bonus, if you happen to lose that dongle somewhere, you would have a backup to still being able to plug in, rather than just do without until you could buy another dongle somewhere.
• your way: you and those who feel like you are also entirely unaffected. But me and those like me cant get our wants met too, without the hassles of carrying dongles or other solutions we didn't need with former iPhones.

Net result: whether there is or is not a headphone jack, your audio connection approach is entirely unaffected. But those of us who would rather have a unified & dongle-less jack across ALL of our Apple hardware- that is also usable with pretty much anything & everything else to which headphones might be attached in the world- could get what we want too.

The arguments in support of jettisoning the jack should apply to iPads and Macs too. But you see nobody calling out Apple as ignorant or antiquated for keeping the headphone jack in those products. Jettisoning it only makes sense here- in this ONE Apple product. Why? Because Apple chose to jettison it. Any reason beyond that should apply to the other products, and thus cast Apple as wrong for keeping it in those other products. But you never see that.

You're beating a dead horse. No corporate decision was made for anyone. That's nonsense. There are many quality phones that still have a headphone jack. Apple has always been quick to jettison older technology in favor of the future. Wireless IS the future. If you need a phone with an old time jack. Buy one. Apple has no responsibility to build one for you.

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

I agree. It is a dead horse. Dead, dead, beaten & broken dead. I'm not wanting to debate it anymore- water under the bridge. This aside started by someone apparently wanting to prove how right a corporation was in stripping this particular bit of consumer utility out. My initial post came back questioning the purpose of that? Why is it so important for some consumers to prove a corporation right to other consumers?

And you are absolutely right! Apple has no responsibility to build anything some consumers say they want. And consumers have no responsibility to keep buying what Apple decides is best for them either. To date, one side dramatically wins the little conflicts therein. But it won't automatically always be that way.

 

[s15119]

Yes, but that argument could go with ANY corporate decision to kick anything else out of a future iPhone. Kick out the battery and not miss it because we buy it in a separate "dongle" case, a pretty easy workaround with the right hardware. Kick out the camera and not miss it because we buy a separate camera or maybe a case with a camera, a pretty easy workaround with the right hardware. Etc.

That's where it goes to be so accepting of corporate decisions jettisoning useful features. We can always work around ANY such decision. But eventually we could be buying what is basically an empty box, then buying a bunch of other "right hardware" to reassemble or resurrect useful features that used to come INSIDE the product.

Cue someone with a snarky SCSI port post, etc. But there's a big difference and we all know it.

Jettisoning it works great for those of us that can heavily scratch our audio needs with just an iPhone and/or just within the Mac or maybe even a computing-based setup. But try to extend that beyond that limited bubble and it adds burdens that were NOT there before. For what (consumer) gain? Nothing.

I'm entirely for jettisoning legacy stuff when it's effectively replaced. Did this effectively replace this particular thing? Only if we can scratch our audio itch within a relatively limited bubble.
[doublepost=1516810695][/doublepost]

I'm right there with you- hanging on to former Apple hardware rather than rewarding decisions that basically got us consumers NOTHING (but hassles). Put it back and I'm first in line to buy again. But as is so often slung around here: "2XX Billion in the bank can't be wrong" doesn't miss my $1000 every year or two... or apparently yours.

Could you possibly fit more nonsense drama in a post. Oh my Gawd, they are going to take the camera out of the phone next. Utter made up nonsense. Apple will not be going back to old style headphone jacks. Deal with it. Android is waiting with open arms. Oh wait, Better hurry, they are moving to the future as well.

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

Oh you so showed me. I take back my own individual opinions and wants as a consumer. A corporation knows what is best for all of us. If they want to jettison something they simultaneously keep in their other products, that makes perfect sense to me now. I take it all back. Apple knows best for every single one of us and we should only like it exactly as they choose to serve it up.

 

[Glideslope]

If Apple sold 35-38 million iPhone Xs, and 80-82 million iPhones total, then its revenue for the quarter would have to be more more than $84-85 billion unless it did very poorly in other areas. And its gross margin would likely be a fair bit higher than 38%.

I stand by my numbers. Not a chance margins will be over 38%. Feb 1st is around the corner.

 

[6803390]

Maybe but lots of folks will be eating crow as Apple once again smashes the haters who so wanted this phone to fail.

You are assuming like many devoted fans (FB) in regards to us wanting Apple to fail. We want everyone, who puts an effort and put their customers first, to succeed. I have noticed in many of your posts you think that it is acceptable for Apple to do what they please for example phone costing £1k plus - at this rate Apple may one day charge us £2k then £3k etc..., and that is pure madness. I understand that a Mac Pro or any PC with high specs cost around that and above, but not a phone. You simply can not justify it whatsoever. End of the day, you make and receive calls, send and receive text, send and receive e-mails, social media, surf web, and finally read books - those are the general stuff most people do.

If the older phones did well, then iPhone X is a failure. I cannot wait to see the breakdown. Actually, it does not matter, iPhone X will be discontinued, and that speaks volumes.

By the way, “Hater”? Really? Lol When you use words like that then you have a sense who you are communicating with...

If you have an issue, here’s a tissue lol

 

[john123]

I prefer to sweep my generalizations under the carpet. Please don't tell my wife.

The home button enters into it, you think really? I found that to be all of a five-minute adjustment. After that it feels totally like the right way and the button feels awkward.

I believe iPhone 8 sales can be largely explained by the price differential. Apple knew going into this that they'd need to offer a new phone model for under a grand. Part of the plan, I believe.

For older people and people who simply don't love the idea of changing their workflow, yeah. I very genuinely have been considering getting an iPhone 8 for myself. Money doesn't enter into my decision at all.

Perhaps I'm being silly and over-extrapolating from my limited time playing with the X. But every time I used the X, I found myself not enjoying it, as well as thinking of all the ways I discreetly (rudely?) use the home button.

But I'm also pushing 40, so maybe I'm just an old timer who doesn't like change anymore, despite somewhat ironically having worked in tech for many years. And those damn kids need to get off my lawn too.

 

[IJ Reilly]

For older people and people who simply don't love the idea of changing their workflow, yeah. I very genuinely have been considering getting an iPhone 8 for myself. Money doesn't enter into my decision at all.

Perhaps I'm being silly and over-extrapolating from my limited time playing with the X. But every time I used the X, I found myself not enjoying it, as well as thinking of all the ways I discreetly (rudely?) use the home button.

But I'm also pushing 40, so maybe I'm just an old timer who doesn't like change anymore, despite somewhat ironically having worked in tech for many years. And those damn kids need to get off my lawn too.

I'm also pushing 40, but from the wrong direction. Way wrong.

A rude way to use the home button. How am I going to get that image out of my head? Thanks for that!

But, really. I am not being an Apple homie in saying that it did not take long to become totally enamored with FaceID and the new gestures. I feel like Apple really sweated the details on this one. It's different for sure but I haven't seen them get anything this right for awhile. I say give it a chance.

 

[JediZenMaster]

You are assuming like many devoted fans (FB) in regards to us wanting Apple to fail. We want everyone, who puts an effort and put their customers first, to succeed. I have noticed in many of your posts you think that it is acceptable for Apple to do what they please for example phone costing £1k plus - at this rate Apple may one day charge us £2k then £3k etc..., and that is pure madness. I understand that a Mac Pro or any PC with high specs cost around that and above, but not a phone. You simply can not justify it whatsoever. End of the day, you make and receive calls, send and receive text, send and receive e-mails, social media, surf web, and finally read books - those are the general stuff most people do.

If the older phones did well, then iPhone X is a failure. I cannot wait to see the breakdown. Actually, it does not matter, iPhone X will be discontinued, and that speaks volumes.

By the way, “Hater”? Really? Lol When you use words like that then you have a sense who you are communicating with...

If you have an issue, here’s a tissue lol

First off the same folks who are upset about pricing threaten to go to the Note 8 which no one seems to have an issue with costing close to a thousand dollars.


Second not sure about the pricing based on exchange but here in the us its 999 plus tax. Lots of folks get the devices on installment plans where you can upgrade once your at the 50 percent mark.

If the iPhone X is discontinued all that shows is that they did not want to discount a phone at a higher price as there were other iPhones discontinued also which is fine IMO to not create cannibaliztion amongst the products.

 

[john123]

I'm also pushing 40, but from the wrong direction. Way wrong.

A rude way to use the home button. How am I going to get that image out of my head? Thanks for that!

But, really. I am not being an Apple homie in saying that it did not take long to become totally enamored with FaceID and the new gestures. I feel like Apple really sweated the details on this one. It's different for sure but I haven't seen them get anything this right for awhile. I say give it a chance.

You're a smart guy, and I've come to respect your thoughts around here. So I'll take another look at the X in person for a while and try to open my mind to the possibilities.

 

[s15119]

Oh you so showed me. I take back my own individual opinions and wants as a consumer. A corporation knows what is best for all of us. If they want to jettison something they simultaneously keep in their other products, that makes perfect sense to me now. I take it all back. Apple knows best for every single one of us and we should only like it exactly as they choose to serve it up.

Again with the hyper dramlama nonsense. No Corporation made any decision for you. You're still a free man. You can buy any phone you want. You can get a 30 year old land line and live in the distant past if you want. But if you expect to be able to spout total nonsense without being called on it, you're not living in a real world. Well, I guess that much you've made totally clear. Dr. Tim recommends copious amounts of cannabis - or the chill pill of your choice.