Contrary to what my Macrumors SN indicates, I've been using FCP for about 6 years now after learning Avid in college. What do I see in the market? Well, certainly not the absolute death of Avid, but it's in decline. They would be smart to focus on the high end client they still own.
Adobe is situating itself to be the new Apple/FCP. Yes, I said Adobe. Think of it this way. Back when FCP was introduced, it was up against Avid and what won the day for FCP? It's ease us use and ultimately how well it played with HD for much cheaper than the competing Avid systems of the time. It was new, fresh, and a better, more cost effective way of doing things for many many users.
Well, now it's 2008, and Adobe stands in a positions very similar to Apple a few years back. Adobe is the upstart in video these days, they will feel the need to innovate like Apple once did, and I believe their version of Apple's "HD inroads" will be how their programs handle the RAW workflow.
Apple has had their time at the top of the heap, in 2 or 3 year I think we'll see Adobe up there if they play their cards right and eventually, Avid may make a comeback. Nobody stays on top forever, and in these days of quickly evolving technology a company's time at the top will grow shorter and shorter.
