Where’s the source for how many threads the macOS kernel supports? And assuming what you’re saying is true, that macOS doesn’t support over 64 threads, with x86 core heavy server chips coming with good single thread performance,
macOS tracks active threads with a 64-bit integer. Windows/Linux all did this with the nominal move to basic 64 bit support weaved in.
Window has two somewhat forked kernels. "regular windows" and Server / "high core count" Windows. You'll see when ordering very high workstations in many "BTO" systems that the Windows version is out of whack if move from 6-8 core version to a 64 or more core version.
There has been lots of hand waving in several threads that there is 'trivial' fix for those of just do a typdef redefine of int64 to int128 and do a simple recompile and everything will work spectacularly well. The history of the upgrades of various Unix versions , Windows , and others is a different story. This has a secondary impact of impacting the schedule, layouts of some critical kernel structures , etc. The propagation ripple if do it robustly is more than just a recompile or a minimal impact 32-bit to 64-bit app conversion.
isn’t Apple at risk of getting left behind?
In single user , mostly single application space (where treads largely sharing same address space) ? Not really.
In flogging 10+ year old , unmodified legacy apps into going faster with "just use a bigger hammer" approach? Probably.
There is lots of work that is very amenable to "embarrassingly parallel" processing that is far more perf/watt effective on non general purpose cores than it is on the cores that the operating system has to track. Apple AMX can be kicked out into a specialized unit that the OS doesn't track in terms of 'pthreads' . NPU and GPU ... not pthreads.
Would they fall behind if didn't have other specialized core units weaved in ? Maybe. But that is an alternative universe.
Since they don't have simultaneously multithreading , SMT (Intel's marketing HyperThreading), they can gradually creep up to 64 cores over a long extended amount of time. If went 40 , 50 , 60 on every 2-3 generation gaps that would be more than several years. [ And no SMT closes some security loopholes they don't have to work around. ] The other issue have is that have to 'share' with the other core types. At some point have to rob-peter-pay-paul to get more die space (even with chiplets. The package can only get so big before substantive NUMA issues kick in. )
For regular consumers like you and me, Apple silicon is enough. But for the crowd that would be interested in a Mac Pro in the first place, I’m not seeing a compelling reason to give apple tens of thousands when an x86 server box with Granite Rapids/Sierra Forest or Zen5 will slay.
There are far more folks moaning and groaning about not being a "4090 killer" than about chasing maximal core counts with minimal clock speeds. CPU cores is not the one that they have a looming deficit over.
Unless, Intel/AMD fix the base clock decline as cores go up issue , Apple really isn't going to struggle much here in the single user , single app space. Especially where those apps have 30/70 , 40/60 , 50/50 single thread : multiple thread critical code sections.
Another large issues is that cache SRAM has stopped scaling. To get bigger on-die caches going to need to increasing scrifice on cranking up core counts. Or take the cache hit. ( can play 3D cache tricks , but that is going to cost more . )
Sierra Forest for workstation in the space that Apple Mac Pro has typically had traction in is likely very , very low. It will probably be a product in the broader and much larger general market , but primarily because it is a small niche. ( so much bigger pond makes it viable). There are folks like "Moorse's Law is Dead" who keeps chatting up SF as some cool deal for the gamer market. I think his analysis is pretty far off. he is just talking crazy core counts to draw ad clicks.
the Ampere Computing ARM max core count , Sierra Forest , Bergamo processor package stuff is way , way , way , way off in the swamp from where the mainstream workstation market is going in terms of substantively large sales. That stuff is far more so to shrink the 2-4+ socket server market into single sockets than single user workstations.
Apple doesn’t even support nVivia GPUs which are all the rave now with the AI craze these days.
Nvidia isn't necessary for AI. It is the hype train... but crypto mining with generic GPU was a hype train 2-4 years ago too. AI processors are likely going to get more AI-ish and less generic GPU-ish over the next 4 years. It has already started and will only pick up speed as AI/ML gets more traction. Perf/Watt wise it doesn't make much sense to do otherwise long term.
I’m starting to believe perhaps its time Apple retire the Mac Pro. What’s the point, when a beefed up Mac Studio will do? Not sure anymore.
Apple may retire the generic box with slots which is mainly bought as a container to fill with 3rd party stuff. But I don't think likely going to kill off the Mac Pro. I think there is disconnect of a user subbase who primarily only view it as the first. Apple does not . Didn't really before and probably even less so now. Apple views it as a system and a Mac first and optional additional as a secondary feature.
the 'display GPUs' I won't be surprised to see go. But zero to very few PCI-e slots would be. It will still likely have some "augment the contain" abilities. Just not catered to Nvidia gaming fan boys.