Even at $6B expenses vs. $2B revenue, it's a $4B pit that Apple can't fill any time soon. If you look at the business model of other streaming services and the sheer quantity of shows they offer, it's doubtful that Apple will ever be able to compete in the near future without continuously burning cash.
Since your characterization of the revenue sources wasn't particularly careful , perhaps want to go back and look at where this $6B is coming from.
I think it is from the stories that broke out several years ago like.
"..
Apple has committed to spend more than $6 billion on original TV shows and movies for its forthcoming Apple TV+ service, according to a Financial Times report on Monday.
..."
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/19/apple-spending-6-billion-on-shows-trying-to-beat-disney-ft.html
'Committed' isn't the same thing as a quarterly or yearly balance sheet. If Apple commits to two years of a series like Morning Show the show producers are not handed 100% of two years of production up front. Similar with Apple's deal for MLB
"...
The new streaming deal between Major League Baseball and Apple is worth $85 million annually over seven years, according to several sources familiar with the agreement who asked not to be identified because they were not authorized to discuss the terms.
Under the new pact, Apple will pay a $55 million rights fee and $30 million worth of advertising. Apple gets the exclusive rights to telecast two Friday Night Baseball games each week ...
MLB's deals with Apple and NBC Sports are about streaming.
www.forbes.com
$30M in ads , but how much of those ads are on Apple's ad network? If chunked up into the whole 7 years that could be spun as Apple committed to $595M .. "oh gosh how do that get that back in a year". Well, they don't have to in a single year.
And the MLS deal
"... Ten years at $2.5 billion comes out to $250 million per year, but that is considered a minimum payment. Under the terms of the agreement, once MLS streaming service subscriptions crosses a certain undisclosed threshold, Apple will share an undisclosed cut of the revenue with MLS .."
The 'commitment' is to $2.5B but the annual cost is around $250M.
Indeed in 2022 ...
" ... Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi estimates Apple generates between $1 billion and $2 billion per year in subscription revenue, but it's spending $3 billion per year on content. ..."
https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/07/04/will-apple-tv-ever-become-profitable/
Yes '3' > '1.5' , but '3' is also not even remotely close to being '6'.
[ I think one of the major keys to whether AppleTV + gets to breakeven or not lies in adoption outside the USA. If Apple plows too much money into 'Hollywood' only then it probably won't work long term. At some point the pot of money available to hand out gets bigger than the good talent pool and things start to go to crony , friend, and 'fame' relationships with not quite as great ideas.... that long term don't pay off as well. ]
Apple has been relatively very aggressive at tacking on season 2 , 3 renewals. It is risky , but 'money pit' is the wrong characterization. As long is Apple is carefully selecting shows there is a more than decent chance it will pay off. That strategy could backfire if try to do too much in a single region and/or try to shift to much higher volume of shows.
You also have to remember that a lot of people subscribe to Apple TV+ as a part of a bundle so the real revenue from subscription is most likely lower than $2B.
Bundles tend to make the subscribers a bit more 'sticky' also. So it is a trade-off. Less money and longer term still pays off over time. Missing the 'forest for a single tree' if manically focused on making all of $3 or $6B back in only one year. Subscriptions (at least good ones) mean regular revenue. If it takes 3-4 years to pay it off then years 5-8 generate 'loss free' revenue. Renting out something that basically paid for ( so just have electronic distribution costs .... which again regular, bundled , bulk customer base can put a solid foundation under those distribution costs. )
It's bordering on amusing to observe the contrast between Tim Cook's approach to movies and games. He has almost a messianic zeal towards Apple TV+ but is more than content to let Apple Arcade rot.
Apple has more control over Apple TV+ 'shows' / content than they do over games. Second, Apple TV+ content is relatively completely independent of Apple hardware. Arcade is extremely bound to Apple hardware.
Apple's obscene neglect of gaming
eglect? A large chunk of the iPhone apps revenue comes out of gaming. Similarly quite high for iPadOS.
Apple didn't force that subsegment to grow , but they haven't really hindered it much either. They have made very steady progress both increasing iPhone/iPad graphics hardware foundation and incrementally improving the GPU library stack on top.
On the mac ( and perhaps AppleTV ) side it is more bottom up enablement. That isn't necessarily a quick path to top end games , but it is a better foundation than where that same class of Macs were 4-5 years ago.
I suspect some folks though that Arcade was some mechanism where Apple was going to push gaming as a top tier revenue generator for macOS and tvOS. I really don't think Apple was ever drinking that kind of kool-aid internally.
Arcade was about broadening the base of developers doing quality games on Apple platforms with Apple tuned games. It wasn't to do a small handful of very expensive ( "AAA") blockbuster games. Nor is it primarily looking to channel as much money as possible into non Apple development tool chain. ( Y
Arcade is also a bit of a hedge against Apple loosing App store exclusivity.
will come back to bite them in their foray into the AR/VR space.
the hype train that VR == gaming so far doesn't have much cash flow positive backing to it for system vendors.
In augmented reality, it is even more dubious premise.
No foveated rendering then missing the boat on VR. Completely. And gaming myopia has suppressed the solutions to that problem coming about far more than helped it.
they're overlooking a series of blunders committed by its CEO, from AirPower, Apple Car, and Apple Silicon transition, to the AR headset, just to name a few.
Chuckle ... so now Apple Car is a blunder. Having make billions less than Apple Silicon or Apple TV ecosystem.
Apple Silicon a blunder? Quantitate evidence where? Apple mac sales relative to pre-pandemic are up. Apple is charging basically about the same when using Intel CPU packages. ( all that Intel profit is kept by Apple and used to cover AS development. )
Intel still has nothing that could do a Mini Pro (in same enclosure) or MPB 14" Max (same enclosure). AMD ( Strix Halo ) and Intel ( Arrow Lake) have 2024/2025 processor still trying to get to where the M1/M2 over a year later.
Is Apple Silicon coming out with iPhone on a strict yearly cadence? No. Is that a blunder? Absolutely not. ( Moore's Law is fading. Even Moore's Law wasn't on a 12 month cadence ( ~18 months). As that creeps out to 24 -36 months the whole yearly new silicon doing what gets more questionable. The iPhone is in a pit that increasing going to start to have problems. Apple has split the iPhone Pro from the Phone. Regular iPhone is no getting 'hand me down' SoCs also.
Did the Mac Pro transition "on time" ? No. Is that a crushing blow to the entire transition? Nope. It is a non strategic systems in the line up that is a "nice to have" but not "critical to have".
The upper end of the M-series line up very likely won't be anywhere near yearly. To try to force those technology arbitrary constraints on it would likely kill it than help it.
We're not even talking about Apple's misjudgement of the potential impact of AI and the colossal disaster that is Siri.
Misjudgement of AI? Really? Apple has been putting NPUs hardware into Apple silicon solutions since the A11 ( 2017). It is been 5+ years. Apple has been pursuing AI inference for more than several years.
Can hand wave at them not as aggressively chasing training and so therefore missed the boat. Usage matters more .. the is where the value add is long term.
The subset of AI that is increasingly drifting into bigger and bigger piles of gigantic data piled up is data vacuuming centralized sites ... has lots of hype behind it , great a fiction writing ... may not be so great at telling the truth. As much as Apple has a toe in the fiction business with AppleTV + , Apple as a whole core competence really is not in the fiction business. ( and the fiction composing aspect is mostly outsourced. Apple is more in the logistics , process improvement , and fiscal controls aspect of the business. )
Siri has as many problems because it is purely a cost center and deeply detached from any revenue generation...as it has due to the "AI" strategy that Apple runs. They don't have the same kind of joint long term product development going on there as the Apple Silicon team has with the iPhone or Macs. There are code development issues also.