I think UPS has experienced a much larger breakdown over the past few weeks due to both Covid and the massive surge of holiday online shopping at levels never seen before. There are several news stories today in the US that UPS is limiting how many packages companies can ship since they simply cannot keep up and have no more capacity. The delivery time estimates are all AI created and based on historical data, none of which applies now given the situation is so different, so I am not surprised they are so off.