I more or less already know how this is going to turn out. Since this whole thing is literally just lobbying the EU so they don’t have to pay 30% to Apple.
1st: In its current form, Apple implemented Malicious compliance. But I doubt the EU will let that happen. So they’ll make a slightly worse version, which will just be the version they had all along.
Sure but.. in what way is it malicious? It is the current state today, plus a list of conditions which regulators put on them, to allow for alternative payment processors/alternative browsers/alternative marketplaces.
That means things become more complex for developers, because they have a lot more options.
That means Apple changes their monetization strategy.
2nd: Epic and Microsoft bring their app stores to iOS to compete with Apple. Likely two additional stores will crop up as well. Some random startup and probably one with loose moderation that will be closed cause 18+.
Epic for sure. Not sure about Microsoft.
Apple's terms are that only legitimate marketplaces can participate, with guidelines for how developers submit their apps and so on. I don't know if Microsoft wants to get into that business. They don't need to in order to launch a streaming game app.
Microsoft also has something like 27 apps, and opting into the new terms means all of those cost them per user after the first million. Today, the six or so apps someone might have installed as part of an Office 365 enterprise seat don't cost them a euro cent in commisions. Today, offering up Microsoft Edge as a browser option to consumers doesn't cost them a euro cent either.
3rd: Apple lowers fees to probably 20% to complete with Epic’s (likely) 15% and Microsoft’s 15-20%. A bunch of seedy mobile games will move over, alongside a few big players (definitely Spotify) who hope the other app stores don’t require the privacy transparency that Apple does. Or just don’t like Apple.
Apple's highest in-app purchase fee is 20%, if you use Apple for processing and are under the new European terms involving the core technology fee.
Epic may be 15% (plus the core technology fee).
Apple would likely say you get 5% more value being in the premier App Store, which also happens to be the one which comes preinstalled on the phone.
Or to look at it a different way, what actually pressures Apple to lower fees - apps deciding they don't want to be in the App Store at all? Which apps would do that in earnest, vs a "billionaires playing hardball" move.